Last year the weather gods denied cycling fans all over the world the chance to see the world's greatest climbers battle it out on the short, brutal stage from Ponte di Legno to Val Martello but Giro d'Italia organizers RCS refused to give in and included the stage in this year's edition of the race. Again the weather looks threatening but at the moment it seems that the stage will go on as planned, meaning that we should be allowed to enjoy what could be one of the greatest bike races of the entire cycling season and one of the most decisive stages of this year's Giro d'Italia.

 

The course

One year ago, cycling fans all over the world were left disappointed when the stage that was maybe the most anticipated of the 2013 Giro, was cancelled due to bad weather. The Giro organizers, however, won't deny the cycling world the chance to see the best climbers battle it out over the epic 139km route from Ponte di Legno to Val Martello and so they have again included it in the 2014 edition of the race. It kicks off the third week of the race and the riders couldn't face a tougher way to get back into racing mode after a rest day as they stage includes two of the most legendary climbs in the Giro history before an uphill finish in Val Martello.

 

The high mountain stage features 3 KOM climbs above 2000 m and starts with a short “open circuit” around Ponte di Legno. The route then climbs up to the legendary  Gavia Pass (category 1, 16.5km 8.0%, max. 16%) which is a rather constant affair with a gradient of 8-9%. Then it runs down a difficult descent (narrowed and worn-out roadway up to Santa Caterina Valfurva), then it runs quickly along wide roads up to Bormio.

 

The route then climbs up to the Stelvio Pass (21.7km, 7.1%, max. 12%) which is this year's Cima Coppi, the highest point of the race. Like the Gavia, it is a very regular climb which is longer but less steep than the first mountain of the day. Then it goes down a difficult descent (nearly 25 km) to the bottom of the valley where 18 km of apparently flat ground/descent lead to the final climb.

 

The final, 22.4km climb has an average gradient of 6.4%, with multiple peaks of over 10% and a maximum of 14%. Unlike the previous climbs, it is more irregular as 8-9% sections alternate with short descents in the first part. 4.5km from the finish there is an easy stretch of apparently flat ground by the artificial lake located 5 km. Then the road ramps up again for the final 1.5km and the last, narrow hairpin bends along the last km have a maximum gradient of around 14% and the gradient doesn't drop below 9% for the final 1.3km. The home stretch is 70m long, on 5m wide, asphalted roadway.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The Giro d'Italia usually includes higher mountains than the Tour de France and due to its May schedule that's a risky affair. The history of the race is loaded with examples of brutal stages on snow-covered mountains and often the organizers have been forced to alter their plans.

 

Unfortunately, the good weather that the riders enjoyed last weekend has given way for rain and cold and like last year this year's queen stage is under threat. Currently, the weather forecasts predict plenty of rain and 6-degree temperatures in Silandro at the bottom of the final climb, meaning that snow will fall on both Gavia and Stelvio.

 

There will be virtually no wind, with only a light breeze coming from a northwesterly direction, meaning that the riders will have a cross-headwind on Gavia, the subsequent descent and the first part of the Stevio before turning into a crosswind. There will be a cross-tailwind in the valley and a crosswind on the final climb to Val Martello.

 

The favourites

Due to the bad forecasts, the organizers promised to give an update on the situation at 17.00 local time and luckily race director Mauro Vegni plans to let the stage go ahead as planned. An alternative course that sees the riders go up the smaller Passo Tonale and Passo Castrin instead of the Gavia and Stelvio ahead of the final ascent but until now the plan is to stick to the original plan.

 

"I've just been up the Gavia and its fine and we've had reports that the Stelvio is even better. It's raining now but the forecasts are for warm conditions tomorrow, with only a risk of rain, when the races crosses the climbs. There's no risk of ice on the descent. For now the stage is on. There's nothing else to say," race director Mauro Vegni said.

 

We will base our analysis of race favourites on the presumption that the stage will go ahead as planned but obviously it will be a much easier affair if two of the hardest climbs of the entire race are replaced by easier ascents.

 

Going straight up the Gavia means that it will be war right from the beginning and we should see one of those uncontrollable and exciting starts that characterize mountain stages that kick off with a big climb. In such stages, the strongest climbers that are not too dangerous on GC usually ride away on the first big ascent and it is a massive task for the race leader's team to make sure that no GC threat is part of the group. Usually a pretty big group of very strong group takes off already on the first climb and it often includes some of the riders that sit from 11th to 30th on GC and hope to move back into top 10 contention.

 

That usually makes the racing pretty fast as the front group is gradually whittled down until only the strongest are left while the peloton has to ride hard to avoid letting dangerous riders getting back into GC contention. Very often the strongest escapee wins the stage and tomorrow there is again a very big chance that the stage will be won by an attacker. If the weather is bad, the likelihood of a successful breakaway is even bigger as breakaways usually take a lot more risks on the descents than the race favourites.

 

On the other hand, the stage is a very prestigious one that all GC riders would love to win and a couple of teams will do their utmost to set up their captains for the win. Nairo Quintana is getting back to full health and his Movistar team has a lot of strong climbers to control this kind of stage. As he is still far back on GC, he needs to make the race as hard as possible to maximize his time gains and this means that he will have to set a hard tempo already on the first climbs of the day. If Domenico Pozzovivo is back at full strength after he has been set back by bronchitis, Ag2r may also try to animate the racing and Astana may have similar plans. On the other hand, Omega Pharma-Quick Step will be pleased to see a break take away the bonus seconds and they will do nothing more than making sure that the time gaps are not too big.

 

The final climb is not very tough and has several pretty easy sections but due to the long valley section between the final two mountains the favourites are most likely to save their energy for that ascent. Nonetheless, the first two climbs will have a massive impact as their presence mean  that the riders will be pretty fatigued when they arrive at the bottom and so the potential damage will be a lot bigger. To gain time on this climb, however, the attacks have to be made before the flat section 5km from the finish as the final steep ramp to the finish will only allow one to gain seconds. Hence, we can expect the battle between the favourites to start pretty early on the final climb.

 

To find the favourites for this kind of stage, one has to consider two factors. First of all there's the high altitude that has different impacts on different riders. Secondly, the bad weather will play a massive role as not all riders excel in this kind of condition.

 

If the favourites manage to catch all the escapees, Nairo Quintana will be the favourite to win the stage. The Colombian has been even more affected by his flu than he has revealed so far and now admits that he has raced several stages with a fever. For him to still be in GC contention is pretty impressive and everything suggests that he will only get better from now on.

 

So far he has not been the strongest in any of the mountain stages. In Oropa, Domenico Pozzovivo was better than the Colombian and on the Montecampione, Fabio Aru was in a class of his own. In those stages, however, Quintana was not yet back at 100% of his capacitites but tomorrow he should be close to his highest level.

 

Furthermore, the massive amount of climbing and high altitudes will suit the Colombian who has lived in the Colombian mountains for most of his life. Unlike many others, he is not hampered much by the bad weather and his excellent descending skills mean that he won't be set back by the treacherous conditions. The length of the final climb should suit him well and even though he would have preferred a steeper ascent, it offers sections that he should be able to benefit from. On paper, he is the strongest climber in this race, he is getting back to full health, the hard stage suits him perfectly and he has an excellent ability to recover. Those factors all add up and make Quintana the favourite.

 

In the two stages in the Alps, Fabio Aru was the best climber. The explosive climb to Oropa didn't suit him well and he couldn't keep up with Pozzovivo and Quintana when they launched their attacks. However, he rode at his own steady pace and ended the stage as the second best of the race favourites. One day later he was in a class of his own when he won on Montecampione.

 

If Aru can keep that kind of condition all the way to the end, he could end up winning this race. Tomorrow's stage suits him even better. As a pure climber, he benefits from the many long ascents that should suit his diesel engine well. Last year he proved that he can perform well in the third week of a grand tour when he finished in the top 5 in the penultimate stage to Tre Cime Di Lavaredo. That stage took place in snowy conditons and so it seems that he has no trouble handling the cold.

 

However, he has never performed consistently at a high level for three weeks in a row and there is a risk that he will fade in the final week. If he doesn't, however, he will probably be the only of the race favourites that can beat Quintana in tomorrow's stage.

 

One thing is certain when it comes to tomorrow's stage: Julian Arredondo will attack on the Gavia. Tomorrow's stage includes the Cima Coppi which offers more points for the mountains classification than any other climb and all riders with a focus on the maglia azzurra needs to be part of tomorrow's break. Arredondo has proved that he is one of the best climbers in this race and it is almost impossible to imagine that he won't be part of tomorrow's break.

 

As there is a big chance that the break will stay away, Arredondo is obviously one of the favourites to win the stage. Last Saturday his team asked him to stay with Robert Kiserlovski which allowed Tim Wellens to become a threat in the KOM competition. Yesterday he was targeting the stage win but was too nervous and attacked way too early. Tomorrow will be a day to go for both the stage win and the KOM jersey and there is a big chance that he will be the first rider at the top of the first too climbs. The high altitude should suit him well but it remains to be seen how he handles the cold. If a break makes it, however, he is an obvious favourite.

 

Another rider that has set his sights on tomorrow's stage is Fabio Duarte. Going into the race, he had his eyes both on a stage victory and the GC but he has performed very inconsistently so far and is now far back in the overall standings. This means that he will have the freedom to go on the attack and there is no doubt that he will be in the action already on the Gavia.

 

Duarte excels at long climbs at high altitudes and so tomorrow's stage suits him perfectly. Last year he finished second on Tre Cime Di Lavaredo, meaning that he knows how to handle the cold. Yesterday he proved that he is at the same level as the very best climbers in this race and he will be hard to catch if he joins the early move. The main question is his lack of consistency that could cause him to out in a below-par showing.

 

Pierre Rolland is another obvious winner candidate. The Frenchman seems to be climbing better than ever and yesterday he was at the same level as Nairo Quintana. He loves the big mountain stages like tomorrow's and is an aggressive rider that likes to spend all day of the front in a massive attack. This time, however, his is still in GC contention and he has had difficulty deciding whether to go for the GC or a stage win.

 

Nonetheless, we would not be surprised to see him attack already on the Gavia in a very brave move that could either be rewarded with a stage win or see him drop out of the top 10. As he is still a little bit behind in the overall standings, he won't be marked as heavily as the biggest favourites but if he makes it into the break, it will force the peloton to chase hard all day. At the moment, he seems to be strong enough to finish it off though.

 

Even if he waits for a battle between the favourites, he will be an obvious threat. The last two stages have proved that he is not as heavily marked as the top contenders and if the candidates for the overall win are pretty equally matched, he could ride away with the win in the finale. On the other hand, he performs best in hot conditions and the cold could pose a threat.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo also deserves a mention. The Italian was very strong in the early part of this race but he is now suffering from bronchitis and lost some time in yesterday's stage. That makes him less of a favourite in tomorrow's stage which doesn't suit him well either. He usually struggles a bit on very long climbs and that's a big disadvantage in a stage like tomorrow's. Furthermore, he is often hampered by bad weather. If he has recovered from his health issues, however, he will still be a danger man as he has proved to be climbing better than ever.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. Fabio Aru is now suddenly a potential winner of the race and this means that Astana may be riding a bit more defensively than originally planned. On the other hand it is no bad idea to have a rider in the early break who could assist the captain later in the race and we would be very surprised if the Kazakh team is not part of the early move. Until now Mikel Landa has been one of the strongest climbers in this race and he usually excels in cold conditions. If he makes it into the break, he could make it two in a row for Astana.

 

MicheleScarponi had hoped to finish on the podium but a crash derailed his plans. He is set to ride the Tour de France and when he hasn't abandoned the race yet, he probably has a plan to show himself at some point. Yesterday he obviously tested his condition, finishing in the top 30, and we expect him to make a big attack at some point. Tomorrow's stage is the obvious option and if he is not too hampered by the cold, he could make a great comeback.

 

Daniel Moreno showed that he is getting back into form when he finished 8th in yesterday's stage. His target is a stage win and he knows that he won't be able to beat Quintana in a head-to-head battle. Hence, he will probably try to attack from afar. As usual, he has been hampered by allergy in this race but due to the rainy conditions, that won't set him back tomorrow. The climbs may be a bit too long to suit him perfectly but don't rule the Katusha leader out.

 

Philip Deignan started the race knowing that he was not at 100% as he was still coming back from a broken collarbone. However, he now seems to have reached his best condition and put in a great show in yesterday's stage. In his blog, he claims that he could have finished 7th on the stage if he had known that the Evans group was so close to him, meaning that he is now up there with the very best. He will probably try to attack from afar and seems to have the form to finish it off.

 

Ag2r will probably try to send a rider up the road and this time it could be the chance for Pozzovivo's key lieutenant Alexis Vuillermoz. His main task will be to support his captain later in the race but if things pan out the way he wants, he could be allowed to go for the stage win. He has proved that he is climbing excellently at the moment and if he is part of the early break, he will be hard to beat.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Nairo Quintana

Other winner candidates: Fabio Aru, Fabio Duarte

Outsiders: Julian Arredondo, Pierre Rolland, Domenico Pozzovivo

Jokers: Mikel Landa, Michele Scarponi, Daniel Moreno, Philip Deignan, Alexis Vuillermoz