The final week of the Giro d'Italia is loaded with big mountains but the riders get one chance to rest their climbing legs a bit as tomorrow's stage offers somewhat of a respite. That doesn't mean that it will be an easy stage though as the lumpy profile makes it very difficult to control and it will be hard for the sprinters to bring things back together for a bunch sprint.

 

The course

The final week of racing only offers one short breather ahead of the final stage to Trieste. It comes one day after the mighty Gavia/Stelvio stage when the riders briefly leave the mountains to travel 208km along rolling roads from Sarnonico to Vittorio Veneto.

 

This stage will partly allow the riders to regain their strength. It is most suitable to sprinters, but it is not completely flat. The stage starts from the heart of the Non Valley, then it enters the Adige River valley and runs through the entire Sugana Valley (the feed zone is set in Grigno).

 

Towards the end of the stage, the route gets to the “easily climbable” Scale di Primolano (category 4, 3.0km, 3.9%, max. 9%). After crossing Valdobbiadene (intermediate sprint), some climbs will liven up the stage as the riders go over the Santo Stefano (category 3, 2.8km, 5.0%, max. 13%) and the “Ca’ del Poggio” wall (category 4, 1.2km, 12.2%, max. 18%). The main obstacles along the last 20km sector are the ones commonly found on these kinds of roads, such as roundabouts and traffic islands.

 

The last km are mainly flat or slightly uphill, up to the final bend, around 450m from the finish, which leads onto the home stretch, which is entirely in slight descent. The home stretch is 450m long, on 8m wide asphalted roadway. The road is completely straight until two turns in quick succession break the monotony inside the final kilometre.

 

 In the 2006 edition of the Baby Giro, Roberto Ferrari finished 2nd in a bunch sprint in Vittorio Veneto and he will hope to go one better this time around.

 

 

 

The weather

After today's very wet and cold affair, the riders will pleased to know that the Italian weather should be back to normal tomorrow. It will be a partly cloudy day but the weather forecasts predict that it should stay dry all day. The temperature at the finish will reach a maximum of 22 degrees.

 

There will only be a light wind from a southerly direction which means that the riders will a have a headwind in the first part before turning into a cross-headwind. After the descent from the Poggio wall, they will turn into a tailwind and that will be the conditions until the riders do the final two turns inside the final kilometre. There will be a headwind on the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

After today's big battle, the GC riders hope to get an easy day in the saddle as the Giro d'Italia again hits flatter terrain but that is unlikely to be the case. If you are not a sprinter or a climber, this stage is your only chance to win a stage in this year's Giro and so a lot of riders will have red-circled this as a day to go on the attack. This means that we can expect the first part of the stage to be very fast and it will probably take very long time before the break is finally formed.

 

At the same time, this is an obvious opportunity for the sprinters and if the final week should not be all about suffering in the mountains, they cannot allow themselves to let it slip away. FDJ, Giant-Shimano, Trek and Cannondale will all head into the stage with their sights firmly set on a bunch sprint. They will have to be on their marks from the gun though as it will require a massive amount of work to make sure that the early break is neither too big nor too strong. It would be no surprise if teams like Cannondale and Trek try to put a rider into the move to avoid having to chase all day.

 

When the early break has formed, most of the stage is likely to develop into a hard pursuit all day. Last Friday the sprinters missed out in what should have been a definite sprint stage and they will probably have learnt from their mistakes. We expect Giant-Shimano and FDJ to hit the front very early and we won't see the break get much of an advantage. However, FDJ will be significantly hampered by the fact that they lost Arnaud Courteille in today's stage as the Frenchman has usually been their man for the early work.

 

It will be interesting to see how Cannondale and Trek handle the stage. In stage 13, Trek decided to put the pressure on FDJ to bring the break back in a quest to tire out the FDJ team but the mission obviously failed. Knowing that they won't win if it is not a bunch sprint, they may run fewer risks in tomorrow's stage.

 

The final part of the stage is rather hilly and it will be very difficult for the sprint teams to take back time in this section. Especially the Poggio wall will be a challenge and the chasers cannot allow themselves to go too fast up that climb as it will tire out their fast finishers. As the break is likely to be pretty strong and the sprint teams are fatigued after almost three weeks of racing, there is definitely a chance that the break will stay away.

 

Another aspect that needs to be taken into consideration is the tactics of the Sky team. If they have no rider in the early break, they may try to ride hard on the wall to get rid of Bouhanni. Among the sprinters, Ben Swift is by far the best climber and in stage 10, the team proved that they know how to put Bouhanni under pressure. In that stage, the final climb was too easy but the wall is a really brutal affair. Don't be surprised to see the British team on the front on the Muro di Poggio and if they succeed in their mission, the final part of the stage could be a pursuit on several levels.

 

With a very hard stage in their legs, a very lumpy finale that is hard to control, the sprinters being uncertain whether they will make it over the wall, and a host of riders ready to attack, we think that this will be a day for a breakaway.

 

This opens the door for the strong riders that excel on short climbs, have a fast sprint and still have something left in the tank. Luca Paolini fits the bill perfectly. Originally, he started the race to support Joaquim Rodriguez but now he is chasing a stage victory. This is his final opportunity in this race and the stage suits him down to the ground. He has been riding strongly all race and today he was riding with the maglia group far up the Gavia pass. This indicates that he is in excellent condition and he will be going full gas in a quest to repeat last year's stage win in Vittotio Veneto.

 

As a classics specialist, Paolini excels on short, steep climbs, he is very strong in flat terrain and he has a very fast sprint to finish it off. Of course it require a bit of luck to make it into the break but at this point of the race, it is all about having something left in the legs. Paolini clearly hasn't emptied the tank yet and if he makes the break, he will be hard to beat. We put our money on the Italian to take a breakaway win.

 

With several teams having a genuine interest in a sprint finish, there is definitely also a big chance that this will be one for the sprinters. In that case, Nacer Bouhanni is the obvious favourite. Since Marcel Kittel left the race, no one has been able to beat the FDJ leader in a finishing sprint and there is no doubt that he is currently the fastest rider in the race. Furthermore, it seems that he is climbing better than ever before and he doesn't seem to be fatigued after three weeks of racing. In fact, he seems to be going much better than most of his rival sprinters.

 

Bouhanni may get into difficulty on the wall and there is definitely a risk that he will get dropped. On the other hand, he is actually not that bad on these short, steep climbs and he has even expressed an interest in targeting the Ardennes classics. Despite Swift's climbing skills, they cannot allow themselves to go full gas on such a steep climb and we don't think Bouhanni will be far behind at the top. With teammates like Johan Le Bon, Francis Mourey and Alexandre Geniez to bring him back in contention, he should be there at the end.

 

The final sprint is not very technical and the finishing straight is a lot longer than it has been in the past few sprint. This makes it less suited to Bouhanni but at the moment only Giacomo Nizzolo seems to match him when it comes to top speed. As it doesn't suit the Italian too much either, Bouhanni will be the favourite in case of a sprint finish.

 

In stages 4, 7, 10 and 13, Bouhanni has won the sprint of the peloton and every time, Giacomo Nizzolo has been second. In some of the sprints, the Italian has actually been pretty close to his French rival. With none of those sprinters having a very strong train to support them and both being technically strong, they actually share many of the same characteristics but Bouhanni seems to be the tiny bit faster. However, things may change a bit in the third week of a grand tour and nothing suggests that Nizzolo doesn't have a chance to beat Bouhanni.

 

On paper, Nizzolo is a slightly better climber than Bouhanni and when Sky applied the pressure in stage 10, he was climbing very comfortably near the front. He should benefit from the late climbs and there is a chance that Bouhanni will get dropped and Nizzolo will still be there. Even if they are both there at the finish, the sting may have been taken out of Bouhanni's legs and this could give Nizzolo the chance to finally beat his rival.

 

Ben Swift knows that it will be hard to beat the likes of Nizzolo and Bouhanni in Trieste so he will have pinpointed this stage as his main target. If Sky are not in the early break, Swift will try to get rid of the faster finishers and there is a definite chance that he will be the only fast finisher left at the of of the Muro. Then it will be a tough ask for his team to keep the sprinters at bay but with a rider like Dario Cataldo, they have some serious firepower in this kind of terrain.

 

Swift is no pure sprinter but in this race he has actually been sprinting better than ever before and he came very close to a stage win in Dublin. Since then he has had a number of injury setbacks but he still seems to be riding strongly and today he was riding excellently in the hardest stage. Even if his rival sprinters survive the final climb, he will be fresher at the finish but will of course feel the absence of Boasson Hagen. Swift definitely has a big opportunity to take his first grand tour stage victory in tomorrow's stage.

 

Another sprinter who climbs really well is Luka Mezgec. The Slovenian is not as fast as Bouhanni and Nizzolo but he should have a bigger chance of staying fresh after the Muro. If Sky really drop the hammer, he could be the only sprinter in addition to Swift to make the selection.

 

To win the stage, however, he will probably need to get rid of Bouhanni and Nizzolo. He is usually heavily reliant on his lead-out train but it will be hard for riders like Bert De Backer and Tom Veelers to make it over the Muro if the pace is fast. Even though he will have riders like Albert Timmer, Georg Preidler and Simon Geschke at his side, he won't have his usual well-drilled machine at his disposal. This will make it harder for him to win the stage but if it proves to be really selective, he definitely has a chance.

 

Bardiani have already won two stages in this race but tomorrow they could take their third one. Sonny Colbrelli may be weighing his options but he knows that it will be hard to beat the likes of Bouhanni and Nizzolo in a sprint, and so he could instead go on the attack. The many small climbs suit him really well and he is definitely a very fast rider. There is a chance that he waits for the final sprint but it would be a wise move by him to make it into the break in a terrain that is tailor-made for him. This is his final chance to take a stage win and he would be a good candidate to make it into an early break.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Garmin-Sharp still hope to win a stage in this race and as Tyler Farrar is unlikely to win in Trieste and Ryder Hesjedal probably won't win in the mountains, tomorrow's stage could be their best option. Nathan Haas crashed in the team time trial and was on his knees in the first part of the race but he has bounced back with a solid showing these last few days. The Australian is really strong in this kind of terrain and has a really fast sprint. He would definitely be a good candidate to win from a breakaway.

 

Adam Hansen has been riding really strongly in this race and last Sunday he proved that he is in excellent condition when he was one of the strongest in the early breakaway. Tomorrow's lumpy stage is not too different from the one he won two years ago and he definitely has picked this one out. He is not a fast sprinter and needs to get away from his rivals if he makes it into the break. However, he could drop them all on the Muro and then he will be hard to catch back.

 

Colombia still hasn't won a stage in this race and they may be mostly expected to take one in the mountains. However, their in-form sprinter Leonardo Duque is perfectly suited to tomorrow's stage. Today he climbed excellently and is clearly still pretty strong. A few years ago he won a similar stage from a breakaway and there is a good chance that he will try to go on the attack tomorrow. He will have no chance to win a sprint finish but knows that he would be one of the favourites if he makes it into the break. As a good climber and a fast finisher, he will be an excellent breakaway pick.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Luca Paolini

Other winner candidates: Nacer Bouhanni, Giacomo Nizzolo

Outsiders: Ben Swift, Luka Mezgec, Sonny Colbrelli

Jokers: Nathan Haas, Adam Hansen, Leonardo Duque