The riders have barely recovered from Tuesday's brutal queen stage but tomorrow they are already back in mountainous terrain when they take on another stage that can make a massive difference in the overall standings. Another big summit finish will reshape the GC but the stage could very well be won by a brave attacker.

 

The course

After their short breather, the riders prepare themselves for three big stages in the mountains that will determine the overall winner of the race. First up is the "easiest" of the trio but it would be a very bad idea to underestimate the 171km between Belluna and Rif. Panarotta that make up a true mountain stage with successive climbs.

 

In its first part, this mountain stage lightly brushes by the Dolomites  as the riders go up the Passo San Pellegrino (category 2, 18.5km, 6.2%, max. 15%). The first part of the climb is rather easy but the second half has a 2.5km section with an average gradient of 11.6%.

 

"The route is then all ups and downs (with an intermediate sprint in Cavalese and feed zone in Molina di Fiemme). The stage finale is intense and powerful, with the steep Redebus Pass climb (category 2, 4.6km, 8.7%, max. 15%) in the Mocheni Valley, before the final ascent (category 1, 15.9km, 7.9%, max. 14%) towards Rifugio Panarotta. The stage is raced over mainly wide and well-paved roads.

 

The last 16 km rise steadily, with a gradient of around 7-9%, along a regular course made of hairpin bends. With no flat sections in between, there is little room for recovery on this long climb that ends with 3km of a rather constant gradient of 8-9%. The home stretch is 150m long, on 7m wide, asphalted roadway.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders will be pleased to learn that they should not be in for a repeat of the brutal conditions that made stage 16 a controversial affair. At the moment, the weather forecasts predict a partly cloudy day with a maximum temperature at the bottom of the final climb of 16 degrees. Towards the end of the stage, rain may start to fall but by that time, the riders should have finished descending, making the conditions less dangerous.

 

There will be virtually no wind, with only a very light wind coming from a southerly direction. This means that the riders will first have a cross-tailwind before turning into a crosswind near the summit of the San Pellegrino pass. They will gradually turn into a headwind in the second half of the stage before turning around to have a tailwind on most the final climb. There will be a crosswind in the final few kilometres.

 

The favourites

There has been much talk about the final week of the race but most of the discussion has been focused on the Gavia-Stelvio and Zoncolan stages and the mountain time trial. Tomorrow's stage has been largely forgotten but it would be a huge mistake to underestimate the course.

 

The first part of the stage may not be nearly as tough as the opening section of stage 16 but the final climb is a really brutal affair that is tougher than the ascent to Valmartello. While the final climb in stage 16 had several rather flat sections that gave room for recovery and short, steep pitches that could be used for attacks, the Panarotta climb is a completely different affair. It is a very regular affair that never lets up and there will be no chance to take a short breather when the riders have finished the first, easy section.

 

This means that it is one of those climbs that can be used to make some massive time differences. Yesterday there was a long, flat section near the top which prompted many riders, including Domenico Pozzovivo, to save their attack to the final steep section, meaning that for the riders in the maglia rosa group the time gains were counted in seconds. Tomorrow the difference can be made much earlier and with a tailwind there is a chance that we could see the attacking start far from the finish.

 

This means that the stage is guaranteed to produce a fantastic spectacle involving the race favourites but there is a very big chance that the stage win won't be up for grabs. The most decisive stage in the final week is probably the mountain time trial and many riders will prefer to hold a little bit back to have something left in the tank for a stage that could produce even bigger time differences. This means that they are less likely to ask their teams to bring back the early escape.

 

Movistar already have their stage win and will probably take a more conservative approach, saving their energy for the Zoncolan stage. Omega Pharma-Quick Step and BMC will also be in defence mode, leaving it to Astana, Belkin, Tinkoff-Saxo and Ag2r to neutralize the attacks. The Belkin team is not strong enough and Astana already have a stage win. There is a chance that Tinkoff-Saxo and especially the strong Ag2r team will try to control things but with Quintana seemingly in a class of his own, they may prefer to go for the stage win from a breakaway.

 

Furthermore, the first part of the stage is pretty tough and everybody knows that the break has a great chance of staying away. This means that the start of the stage will be very aggressive and fast and the break is likely to take of the San Pellegrino. Under such circumstances, the strongest climbers that are not in GC contention, usually ride away from the peloton and a big group often forms. It is very hard to control the peloton under such circumstances and it takes a strong team to bring the group back.

 

Hence, we expect the breakaway to make it to the finish while the GC riders will be doing their battle a little further down the climb. We have already pointed to Fabio Duarte as a potential stage winner on several occasions and the Colombian got close when he finished second on the Montecampione climb. He had big plans for the queen stage and was climbing comfortably with the best on the Gavia but on the descent he had to stop several times to put on warmer clothes in the horrific conditions.

 

This meant that he finished far behind the best but the performance was certainly not any kind of indication of his true form. In stage 15 he proved that he is actually fully capable of mixing it up with the very best and being far down on GC, he will have lots of freedom. Tomorrow's finishing climb is not very different from the Montecampione ascent and he generally excels on that kind of long, regular ascents. In almost any kind of break he will be one of the best climbers and he has a fast sprint to beat his rivals. This makes Duarte a very good winner candidate in tomorrow's stage.

 

Another rider that could be involved in the action is Mikel Landa. Apart from a bad day on Montecampione, the Basque has been very consistent in the mountain stages, always riding with the best. On the climb to Valmartello, his massive turn at the bottom of the climb whittled the maglia rosa group down to only 10 riders, clearly indicating that he is one of the strongest climbers in the race.

 

Of course he is an important domestique for Fabio Aru but it may be no bad idea for Astana to have their excellent climber already up the road. If the break stays away, the Basque has the chance to go for the stage win and he could also play a role for Aru later in the stage. Aru is still in podium contention and so the main focus is of course the Italian captain but there may still be room for Landa to shine. If he is given the freedom and makes the break, he will be very hard to beat on the final climb.

 

Of course there is a chance that Ag2r and Tinkoff-Saxo will bring it back together for a battle between the race favourites but in that case we doubt that anyone will be able to beat Quintana. In yesterday's stage he did all the work on the final climb but still managed to gain a massive amount of time on his key rivals. This proves that he is getting back to full health and everybody knows that at 100% he is in a class of his own. The long, regular climb suits him perfectly and even though he may hold something back for the time trial, we doubt that he can put his attacking spirit completely on hold.

 

Yesterday Sebastian Henao proved that Sky have not signed only because of his name. The Sky rider proved that he has the skills to become another great Colombian climber when he finished in the top 10, beating the likes of Rigoberto Uran and Cadel Evans. With a boosted confidence, it is now time for him to seek a stage win from a breakaway and tomorrow's stage suits him perfectly. With the San Pellegrino being a perfect scene to make his first attack, there is a big chance that he will make the break and the final climb should suit him well. Will Henao be the rider that saves Sky's Giro?

 

As said, Quintana will be hard to beat for the favourites but the race leader may choose to hold something back for the time trial. This opens the door for a few more favourites and it would maybe not be a bad idea for the Colombian to make a few more friends by giving away a stage win after yesterday's controversies. Domenico Pozzovivo suffered from bronchitis a few days ago but his performance yesterday suggested that he is back at 100%. He has proved that he is one of the best climbers in this race and tomorrow he could get his reward by taking a stage win. The final climb may be a bit too long to suit him perfectly and he often has a tendency to fade towards the end of grand tours but if he can gauge his effort as well as he did on the Valmartello climb, he is a winner candidate.

 

After his great win on the Montecampione climb, Fabio Aru was suffering a lot more in yesterday's stage and he may be paying the price for three weeks of hard racing. However, the final climb in tomorrow's stage suits him much better and he has proved that while other riders start to fade at the end, he only gets stronger. Those skills will be important on a long, regular ascent and he definitely has a chance to make it two in a row.

 

Wilco Kelderman had a bad day last Sunday but in the other stages, he has seemed to be almost at ease. Yesterday he was again back to his best and if he can keep that level, he could be the rider to benefit from a more conservative approach from Quintana. Among the favourites, he is probably the fastest sprinter and if he is there at the end, he will be the man to beat.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. In the early part of the race, Wout Poels was riding really strongly and was sitting in the top 10 when he started the queen stage. However, a bad day took him out of contention and he is now far down the overall standings. His Omega Pharma-Quick Step team is no longer in a position where they have to control the race and this could open the door for Poels to go on the attack. He seems to be a bit fatigued after three weeks of racing but if he can find back his best legs, he will be a good breakaway candidate.

 

Tomorrow's stage is an important one for Julian Arredondo if he wants to win the mountains jersey. Both Robinson Chalapud and Nairo Quintana are now threats and he needs to score points on the roads to Panarotta. It is hard to imagine that he won't go on the attack on the San Pellegrino and then he will also be in contention for the stage win. He no longer seems to be at 100% but he is definitely still one of the best climbers in the race.

 

Alexis Vuillermoz has been a valuable support rider for Pozzovivo and is now sitting in 11th overall. That position means that he is unlikely to get too much freedom but as he is still 6 minutes behind Kiserlovski in 10th, there is a chance that he could make it into the break. Ag2r have proved that they are prepared to race aggressively and Vuillermoz shows no signs of slowing down. Look out for Ag2r to put their rivals under pressure by sending the lieutenant up the road.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Fabio Duarte

Other winner candidates: Mikel Landa, Nairo Quintana

Outsiders: Sebastian Henao, Domenico Pozzovivo, Fabio Aru, Wilco Kelderman

Jokers: Wout Poels, Julian Arredondo, Alexis Vuillermoz