Today's stage failed to produce very big time differences as most of the favourites preferred to save energy for tomorrow's stage. That may prove to be a very wise decision as the mountain time trial on the feared Monte Grappa is set to be one of the most - if not the most - important stages of the entire race.

 

The course

The 19th and 20th stages of the race are two of the most decisive in the three-week race and will crown a deserved winner of the Giro d'Italia. With the 2009 and 2012 being the only recent exceptions over the last few years, the Giro d'Italia has become the only grand tour to regularly include a mountain time trial and this year they have found an even tougher course than usual for the uphill test. While the climb of Monte Grappa isn't as steep as the famous Plan de Corones that was used in 2008 and 2010, it's a much longer affair and far steeper than the climbs used in 2011 and 2013.

 

This very challenging uphill time trial consists of two segments. The first, flat 7km sector leads to the foot of the climb where the first time check is taken. The second uphill part is 19.3km long and features gradients of around 9-10%, except for a short stretch of apparently flat ground. The average gradient is 8.0%.

 

The uphill sector features a series of hairpin bends at regular intervals, before reaching a small plateau where the second time check will be taken. When the climb restarts, the highest gradients of 14% are attained. The last kilometres are entirely uphill, with a constant gradient between 9% and 12%.. The home stretch is 120m long, in 5m wide, asphalted roadway.

 

 

 

The Monte Grappa last featured in the 2010 edition of the race when Ivan Basso sent lieutenant Vincenzo Nibali off in an attack from a small group of favourites on the descent and the young Italian held on to take a solo victory

 

The course

Luckily, it mainly stayed dry in today's big mountain stage but tomorrow the riders may not have the same kind of luck. The weather forecasts predict Friday to be a rather cloudy day and light rain is expected for most of the afternoon. It won't be cold though as the temperature at the start will reach a maximum of a pleasant 21-degrees.

 

There will be a light win from a southerly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind as they got out of the starting city before turning into a tailwind. That will be the conditions for most of the remaining part of the stage, setting the scene for some fast times up Monte Grappa.

 

The favourites

Many may have been left a bit disappointed by the lack of aggression from the favourites in today's stage but the riders certainly had a good reason to choose their defensive tactics. Mountain time trial usually produce some huge time differences and so any time gains from today's stage could easily be turned into a big deficit tomorrow.

 

This year's mountain time trial could even provide even bigger time gaps that usual. Monte Grappa is a very tough climb that simply can't be overestimated. It's a lot tougher that the climb used for last year's mountain time trial and if one looks at the time gaps made in that stage, it is clear that tomorrow has the potential to produce some real damage.

 

With the opening flat part, the time trial is a funny mix that makes it very similar to the final stage of last year's Tour de Suisse and we could very well see riders chance bikes at the bottom of the climb. Although small differences can be made in the flat section, the final result will all be decided on the Monte Grappa and it will be important not to arrive at the bottom relatively fresh. The Flumserberg time trial in Switzerland proved that any time gains in the flat section will easily be erased on the final climb and in the end the first flat section will count for nothing. The differences will be made on the climb and it would be a poor choice to put too much emphasis on the first time check.

 

The climb is rather regular and apart from that little flat section 9km from the finish, it leaves no room for recovery. It gets a bit more irregular in the second half where there are some really steep sections.This makes it one for the pure climbers and we won't see any of the specialists post top times as one may occasionally see it in easier mountain time trials. The Monte Grappa can produce some massive time gaps and it could be the single most decisive stage of the race.

 

When finding favourites for a mountain time trial, it is important to know that such stages are usually dominated by real climbers, especially when the climb is as steep as Monte Grappa. General TT skills mean very little in such a stage and it is no wonder that riders like Jose Rujano and John Gadret who are usually no TT specialists, have performed really well in this very unique discipline. As the first flat section will mean very little in the end, this stage will be dominated by the pure climbers that can go fast uphill at a steady pace for more than an hour.

 

This means that the stage has one overwhelming favourite and it will be a pretty big surprise if Nairo Quintana doesn't take a rather convincing victory in this stage. The Colombian seems to have fully recovered from his health issues. This has had an evident effect on his level and he now seems to be in the superior class that most expected him to be in when the race took off from Belfast.

 

Quintana's performance on the Valmartello climb was marvelous as he single-handedly put more than two minutes into his key rivals who followed wheels for most of the time. As predicted, he preferred to ride conservatively in today's stage but appeared to be the only one of the favourites to be at ease. In the finale, he made a small acceleration to prove that he is simply in a class of his own.

 

Quintana hasn't done an awful lot of mountain time trials in his short career but last year he finished 3rd on the Col d'Eze in Paris-Nice. That climb suited him a lot less than tomorrow's and he should perform much better on the Monte Grappa. He may lose a little bit of time in the first section but it will mean nothing in the end. Unless something unexpected happens, Quintana will crush the opposition on Monte Grappa.

 

As said, mountain time trials generally suit pure climbers and this makes Fabio Aru an obvious candidate. The Astana rider often struggles a bit when his rivals accelerate but that won't be a problem tomorrow when he can just set his own steady pace. In all mountain stages, he has proved to be one of the very strongest and as it will all come down to climbing skills on Monte Grappa, we wouldn't be surprised if he ends up second behind Quintana.

 

Aru will of course lose some time in the flat section but he seems to have the ability to remain calm and should not be too stressed by a poor first time check. By the time, they hit the final climb we expect Aru to perform really well and make up for his losses.

 

Rigoberto Uran is clearly not the strongest climber in this race but he has always excelled in mountain time trials. In 2010 he finished 7th in the Plan de Corones TT at a time when he had not yet fully matured into the rider he is now. He has always been great at pacing himself and his newly found pedigree as a TT specialist proves his talents in that regard.

 

Uran has put in a pretty inconsistent performance in this race - one day he has been great, the next day he has been pretty poor - but today he had one of his better days. If he is at that level in tomorrow's stage, he should be able to take a pretty big step towards the final podium in Trieste by gaining time on most of his rivals on a route that suits him pretty well.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo is both a solid time trialist and a great climber and on paper he should be able to perform well in tomorrow's stage. However, two factors speak against the tiny Italian. First of all, he is still bothered by bronchitis and he didn't look too great in today's stage. Secondly, he often struggles a bit on long climbs and Monte Grappa may be a bit too much for him.

 

On the other hand, his climbing skills are excellent and if he can gauge his efforts perfectly, he could produce a very good ride. He doesn't have the best history in mountain time trials but as he has improved both his climbing and TT skills, he is definitely in podium contention.

 

Pierre Rolland is certainly not known for his TT skills but a mountain time trial is different from a flat one. He has never done a mountain TT at the highest level and so his skills in the discipline are a bit uncertain. On paper, however, he should be well-suited to the discipline. As a pure climber, he knows how to pace himself on a long ascent and tomorrow he won't be bothered by the accelerations that are not his strong points. Being one of the best climbers in this race, he is a dark horse but we wouldn't be surprised if he finishes on the podium.

 

Wilco Kelderman has mostly seemed to be at ease on the climbs and has only had two bad days. He struggled a bit on Montecampione and today he paid the price for an early solo attack. However, he still looks very strong towards the end of this race and on paper he should be able to do well in tomorrow's stage. As a TT specialist he knows how to pace himself an gauge his effort and he seems to be one of the strongest climbers in the race. The climb may suit the pure climbers a bit more than him and so it may be hard for him to finish on the podium. On the other hand, he could perform excellently if he can keep the legs he has shown so far.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Wout Poels had a couple of bad days but today he proved that he back to the level that could have earned him a top 10 place if it hadn't been for those lacklustre performances a few days ago. Today he single-handedly reeled Rolland in and there is no doubt that he is one of the strongest riders in the race. He may be asked to save some energy for the Zoncolan stage but OPQS have no history of holding their riders back in a TT. He already did really well in Barolo and tomorrow's stage should suit him even better.

 

Julian Arredondo spent a lot of energy in today's stage and there is a chance that he will take it easy in tomorrow's stage. If he has recovered sufficiently, however, he could produce a surprise. Only a very few riders can match his climbing skills and tomorrow he won't be bothered by the tactical aspects and nervousness that so often hampers him. Don't be surprised to see Arredondo again finish near the top.

 

Another rider that was in the break today was Dario Cataldo. The Italian is both an excellent time trialist and a great climber and there is no doubt that he will go full gas in tomorrow's stage. The climb may be a bit too hard to suit him perfectly but a top 10 spot is within his grasp.

 

Movistar will probably use Jose Herrada as a gauge for Nairo Quintana and the Spaniard may be allowed to go full gas. He has been a bit inconsistent in this race but when he has been at his best, he has been really strong. He did a very good time trial in Barolo and tomorrow's course suits him a lot better.

 

Stefano Pirazzi has made this stage a big objective and the Italian should perform well. He may not be climbing as strongly as he did 12 months ago but his stage win proves that he is not going to badly either. In the first time trial and in last year's Italian championships, he proved his great TT skills and we wouldn't be surprised to see him finish near the top.

 

Three additional riders that could do well are Michael Rogers, Thomas De Gendt and Gianluca Brambilla. They all seem to be going very strongly at the moment. The former two are great TT riders that may find the course a bit too hard for them. The latter proved in Barolo that he knows how to ride a good TT if the course is sufficiently hard and he won't find a much tougher climb than Monte Grappa.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Nairo Quintana

Other winner candidates: Fabio Aru, Rigoberto Uran

Outsiders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Pierre Rolland, Wilco Kelderman

Jokers: Wout Poels, Julian Arredondo, Jose Herrada, Stefano Pirazzi, Dario Cataldo, Thomas De Gendt, Michael Rogers, Gianluca Brambilla