The overall winner may have been decided but the most prestigious stage win of the entire race is still up for grabs. The brutally steep Monte Zoncolan awaits the riders on the final day and has the potential to produce another shake-up of the overall standings just one day before the finish in Trieste.

 

The course

One Italian climb is more feared than any other. Since it first featured in a Giro stage in 2003, Monte Zoncolan has gained a reputation as being the hardest climb in Italy. It is certainly no coincidence as the 11.9% average gradient and torturous maximum of 22% can make even the strongest climber look like an amateur rider.

 

In recent years, the Giro d'Italia usually has had its queen stage on the penultimate day but as Monte Zoncolan  is located in the northeastern part of the country, in the Friuli mountains, it has been too far away from the traditional finishing city of Milan to use it as a summit finish this late in the race. With the organizers keen to end their race in Trieste to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the city’s return into Italy’s hands, the door was suddenly open for them to put on the ultimate show on Italy's hardest climb just one day before the finish of the race.

 

The riders will travel over the relatively short distance from Maniago to the top of Monte Zoncolan. The first part stretches along the Friulan hills. The route hits San Daniele del Friuli, Majano, Buia and Bordano. The climbs begin after Tolmezzo: Passo del Pura, Sella di Razzo and Monte Zoncolan (which will be climbed from the Ovaro side) come right after  each other.

 

The Passo del Pura (category 1, 11.3km, 7.7%, max. 13%) is a constant ascent, climbing along the side of the mountain for about 9km at a gradient of 8%, in a series of hairpin bends, with peaks often reaching double-digit gradients.

 

A short descent leads to the dam of Lake Sauris, where the route then takes the road coming from Ampezzo and leading to the Sella Razzo climb (category 2, 15.9km, 5.2%, max. 15%) after going past Sauris di Sotto and Sauris di Sopra. This climb is mostly relatively easy but has a steep 4km section with an average of 9.1% near the top. A quick descent then leads to the Degano stream Valley, up to Ovaro, at the foot of Monte Zoncolan.

 

The famous climb starts out relatively "easy" with 1.5km of just 9.1% but then it hits its most difficult section. The next 5km have an average gradient of a massive 15.4% and the gradient doesn't drop below 14% at any point. The next two kilometres have an average of "just" 13.9% before it levels out near the top, with the penultimate kilometre rising at 7.1% and the final one having an average of 8.9%.

 

The final kilometers rise steeply. With 3 km to the finish, two (left-right) hairpin bends alternate with an almost flat sector The climb then features gradients from 12 to 18%, up to the three tunnels (150 m – 60 m – 110 m) leading to the final 500 m, with an average gradient of 11% and peaks reaching as high as 16% by the hairpin bend located 250 m before the finish. The road surface is asphalted and the roadway is 5m wide.

 

The climb debuted in 2003 when Gilbert Simoni stamped his authority on the race by taking a solo win but that year it was climbed from its easier side. It was first climbed from Ovaro in 2007 when Simoni again took the win while Ivan Basso laid the foundations for his overall victory in 2010 by taking a solo win. It last featured in 2011 when Igor Anton dropped an otherwise unbeatable Alberto Contador to take what is arguably the biggest win of his career.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Things simply wouldn't be right if this Giro d'Italia didn't end with a rainy day in the mountains and unfortunately it seems it seems that the riders will once again need their rain coats. It will mostly be a sunny day but rain is expected to fall by the time the stage reaches it exciting conclusion. It won't be a very hot day either as the temperature in Ovaro at the bottom of the Zoncolan will reach a maximum of just 15 degrees..

 

There will be a light wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will have a cross-headwind in the first flay part before turning into a cross-tailwind on the first two climbs. From there it will be cross-headwin all the way to the finish at the top of the Zoncolan but on such a steep climb, the wind won't have much of an impact.

 

The favourites

As we already said yesterday, today's mountain time trial could turn out to be the single most decisive stage of the race and based on the massive time gaps that were created, that prediction seems to be right. However, the second most important stage comes just one day later as the Monte Zoncolan is by far the hardest finishing climb in this race and history proves that big time gaps are always made on its steep slopes.

 

Today the GC took a lot more shape but there are still something to play for in the top of the overall standings. Fabio Aru definitely has a chance to push Rigoberto Uran down the second step of the podium and the battle for fourth is also still pretty close. Finally, Wilco Kelderman has done nothing to hide that he still hopes to pass Cadel Evans in the overall standings.

 

Furthermore, the stage itself is probably the most prestigious of the entire race. Any ambitious climber would love to conquer the Monte Zoncolan and there is little doubt that Quintana has the ascent pretty high on his list of targets. This also means that a break is unlikely to make it to the finish. This is a stage that the GC riders all want to win and so they will allow little room for potential attackers.

 

They will be helped by the very easy first part of the stage. Many riders have not given up hope that a break can potentially make it to the finish - just remember how Juan Manuel Garate won the penultimate stage to Mount Ventoux in the 2009 Tour de France on a day when everybody expected the GC riders to shut it down - and so the early part of the stage could still be pretty fast. However, it will be much easier for Movistar to control the composition of the early break and the move that finally takes off won't necessarily contain an awful lot of strong climbers.

 

Today Quintana hinted that he will be going for the stage win and we expect Movistar to take control of the situation. Their team has really stepped up the level over the last few stages and they are definitely strong enough to give Quintana the chance to win another stage. They may get some help from Astana as Fabio Aru will surely have his sights set on second place. It could be a close battle with Rigoberto Uran and he cannot allow the escapees to ride away with the bonus seconds. Finally, Ag2r made also have a plan for the day and if Rafal Majka has recovered from his stomach problems, Tinkoff-Saxo have clearly proved that they are ready to ride aggressively.

 

The first two climbs can be used to make the race harder but the GC riders will save all their energy for the final climb. The Zoncolan is so extremely steep that there is no room for tactics or drafting. On such a climb, riders usually finish one by one and it will all come down to climbing legs, making this kind of climb and different affair compared to the usual finishing climbs.

 

It is hard to look beyond Nario Quintana as the man to beat. Today the Movistar rider proved that he is the strongest climber in the race and he won't be hampered by steeper gradients in tomorrow's stage. In his short career, he has never had the chance to ride a stage on the famous, very steep climbs and so he has no history on this kind of ascents. However, nothing suggests that he won't benefit from the steepness.

 

Today Quintana hinted that he could ride for his teammate Igor Anton who won the stage in 2011 but the Basque won't have a chance to repeat that feat. Hence, it will soon be left to Quintana to defend the Movistar colours and with all the controversy over Stelviogate, there is no doubt that he would love to seal his overall win in the most impressive fasion. If it is all back together at the bottom of the Zoncolan, we would be pretty surprised if Quintana doesn't take the win.

 

The rider most likely to challenge him is Fabio Aru. As we predicted yesterday, the Italian did really well in today's time trial, proving that when it comes to pure climbing skills only Quintana is stronger than him. On the Zoncolan, the climbing skills are what matters and so Aru will have a good chance of making another great performance.

 

Aru has never done a race on these very steep climbs but last year he finished fourth on Tre Cime Di Livaredo which has some very steep sections. As a pure climbers, he should excel on this kind of ascent. The only disadvantage is the potential rain as wet roads on such a steep road make it impossible to raise from the saddle. Aru usually spends a lot of time out of the saddle and this could be a disadvantage. However, we still expect him to do well and we would bet on him to take enough time to move into second on GC - especially if the bonus seconds are still up for grabs.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo excels when the road gets really steep and this makes him an obvious candidate in tomorrow's stage. On the other hand he often struggles a bit on long climbs and even though Zoncolan is not overly long, the steepness means that it takes quite a bit of time to climb it. Hence, it is no big surprise that Pozzovivo has never shined too much on climbs like Angliru, Mortirolo or Zoncolan.

 

If he can gauge his effort perfectly, however, he has the skills to do well. In 2012 he laid the foundations for his overall victory by making a dominant performance on the Punta Velena climb which is probably even harder than the Zoncolan. It will be all about not going too hard too early for Pozzovivo. If he manages to do so, he could move into fourth on GC.

 

Pierre Rolland has been climbing excellently in this race but he usually excels on long, gradual ascents. Zoncolan may be a bit too steep for the lanky Frenchman and we wouldn't be surprised if he cannot live up to his previous performances on that kind of climb. Today, however, he proved that he is probably riding better than ever before and this may cause him to ride better than expected.

 

Julian Arredondo took a great win yesterday and has already secured himself the win in the mountains classification. Hence, there is no need to focus on the KOM points and he can use his last bit of energy to go for the stage wins. So far we have not had the chance to see him in a direct battle against the GC riders but we won't be surprised if he can mix it up with the very best. He excels when the roads gets very steep and even though the final climb may be a bit too long to suit him perfectly, he should do well. It will be important for him to stay calm and not make an attack on the lower slopes. There  is also a chance that he will join the early break and if he is part of a group that defies the odds and makes it to the finish, he will be the man to beat.

 

Fabio Duarte got close to a stage win yesterday and now he only has one chance left to take that elusive victory. However, tomorrow's stage should suit him really well as he generally excels on long, steep climbs. Last year he finished 2nd on the steep Tre Cime Di Lavaredo on the penultimate day and the Zoncolan should suit him better. Compared to Arredondo, he is much better at gauging his effort and this could make him an even better winner candidate than his compatriot.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. Sebastian Henao has proved that Sky have not signed him because of his relations to cousin Sergio but because of his fantastic climbing skills. After his great performance in the queen stage, he did an excellent time trial today. At the moment he seems to be one of the strongest riders and as a pure climber, the steepness should suit him well. If he stays in the peloton, there is a big chance that he will finish in the top 10. If he goes on the attack, he will obviously be one of the favourites.

 

Andre Cardoso has mostly raced an anonymous race but the Portuguese is getting better and better. On the Montecampione, he did a very good ride to be the best of the early attackers and since then he has consistently performed better and better. Last year he finished in the top 10 on Angliru after having been part of the early breakaway, and there is no doubt that he has the skills to do well on this kind of climb.

 

CyclingQuotes's stage winner pick: Nairo Quintana

Other winner candidates: Fabio Aru, Domenico Pozzovivo

Outsiders: Pierre Rolland, Julian Arredondo, Fabio Duarte

Outsiders: Sebastian Henao, Andre Cardoso