Svein Tuft and Orica-GreenEDGE lived up to expectations in today's opening team time trial of the Giro d'Italia but there will be no time to rest on the laurels. The Italian grand tour continues what could seem to be an easy flat ride but wind, rain and narrow roads will make for a very nervous affair in Northern Ireland that is likely to end with a big bunch sprint in Belfast.

 

The course

The Giro d'Italia and the Vuelta a Espana traditionally enters the hillier terrain much earlier than the Tour de France that usually reserves the first week to the sprinters. With a start in Northern Ireland and Ireland, however, the fast finishers will get plenty of opportunities in an unusually flat opening week of the Italian grand tour.

 

The first of those comes in the race's first road stage which at 219km is a rather long affair. It winds entirely

along the north-eastern part of Northern Ireland. In the first part, the route heads north and reaches the sea, running along broad and wide roads, alternating with series of half-turns and roundabouts. The feed zone is set in Bushmills, before the first KOM in Cushendall Road (6.6km, 3.1%, max. 8%).

 

A technically challenging descent leads to the coastal road, which will ultimately take the riders to the finish. A short climb (the 2nd KOM, 1.7km, 2.9%, max. 7%) leads to Carrickfergus, where the intermediate bonus sprint has been set. The route leading to Belfast runs slightly downhill.

 

The last 3 km descend slightly and run entirely through the residential area. The road is almost straight until the last bend, leading to the 300m long home stretch (the same as the first stage) on 8m wide, asphalted roadway.

 

 

 

The weather

Today the weather had a big influence on the outcome of the opening team time trial and it will again play a huge role in tomorrow's stage. All teams will be carefully studying the weather forecast to find out everything about the wind direction for their very nervous ride along the Irish coast.

 

The weather should be a typical Irish affair as there will be a great chance of showers all day and there is a big risk that the riders will do the entire stage on wet roads. There won't be many chances to get just the slightest glimpse of the sun on a mostly cloudy day where the temperature will reach a maximum of 12 degrees.

 

Some days ago it seemed that the first stages would be very windy but it seems that it won't be the case after all. Only a rather light wind is expected but it will come from a westerly direction, meaning that there will be a crosswind for most of the day. That will also be the case in the finale until the riders turn into a tailwind for the final 300m.

 

The favourites

Early flat stages in grand tours are always an extremely nervous affair. With the GC still being close, almost all teams have a GC rider that needs to stay safe near the front and most teams also have a sprinter that they want to protect. With the grand tours playing an increasingly important role from a publicity point of view, the riders take bigger and bigger risks and we have seen some dramatic crashes in the opening weeks over the last few years.

 

The Giro may have been less plagued by those incidents than the Tour in which the pressure on the riders is obviously a lot bigger, but there will still be lots of nervousness until the first major selection has been made in a week's time. During the first week, there is so much to lose and very little to win for the GC contenders.

 

The start in Northern Ireland won't make things any less nervous. While the Vuelta and Tour are well-known for their potentially windy stages, the Giro has less of a history of dramatic crosswinds racing. With the start taking place in Ireland, however, those two first flat stages have the potential to wreak havoc on the peloton.

 

A few days ago, the wind was expected to be a lot stronger but now it seems that it won't be as dramatic as one could have hoped/feared. The riders may have almost all day but it seems that it won't be too strong. Hence, we don't expect that the wind will produce the selection that it could have potentially done.

 

However, the mere risk that things could split will make the peloton extremely nervous and the rain won't make things any calmer. The riders can expect a very stressful day in the saddle and if the wind doesn't set any of the GC favourites back, there is a risk that crashes will do so.

 

Regardless of the potential splits in the peloton, there is no doubt that stage will be decided in some kind of sprint finish. Teams like Giant-Shimano, Cannondale and FDJ all have the sprints as the biggest or one of their biggest focuses in the three-week race and they need to make the most of the opportunities in the sprint-friendly first week of the race. The big time gaps in today's team time trial means that only Alessandro Petacchi can realistically hope for the maglia rosa which was a big objective for the many sprinters but they won't let this opportunity slip away. There is no doubt that Giant-Shimano, Cannondale, FDJ and the Orica-GreenEDGE team of race leader will make sure to bring things back together for a bunch sprint.

 

The final sprint is a bit interesting as the long, straight road leading to the final corner will allow the riders to reach very high speeds but then they need to slow down just 300m from the line and then re-launch their effort. With such a short finishing straight, it will be crucial to enter that final corner in one of the first positions as there is very little time to make up ground. This makes the lead-out trains very important as it will be their ability to position their sprinter that plays a very big role. Furthermore, the short sprint suits the very explosive sprinters that can get back up to speed very quickly.

 

It is very hard to look beyond Marcel Kittel as the big favourite to win this stage. The big German has been in excellent condition all season and even though bad luck has often prevented him from coming away with the deserved results, he seems to be both sprinting and climbing better than ever before. This year he has decided to do the Giro for the first time and he obviously enters the race in very good condition.

 

He failed to come away with a result in his final warm-up race in Romandie but that was not a massive surprise. After all, the mountainous course in Switzerland didn't leave much room for a big guy like Kittel but he proved his great condition when he took third in the opening prologue. When he last had the chance to do a sprint, he crushed the opposition in the Scheldeprijs completely and even though Mark Cavendish and André Greipel were both absent, it was a very high-level field of rivals.

 

In this race, Greipel and Cavendish are again both absent and this means that Kittel is in a class of his own when it comes to top speed. Furthermore, he benefits from what is the strongest lead-out train in the race. He may miss a key rider like Koen De Kort but with Albert Timmer and Bert De Backer to ramp up the speed before Luka Mezgec and final lead-out man Tom Veelers take over, the Dutch team should be superior in this field. With that kind of support, Kittel should get to that final corner as one of the first riders and even though the short finishing straight doesn't suit a power sprinter like Kittel perfectly, it should be enough for him to take the win.

 

In the Tour of Turkey, Elia Viviani proved how far he has come as a sprinter during the off-season as he beat Mark Cavendish twice. He even did so rather convincingly in sprints where Cavendish was given the perfect lead-out and it proved that Viviani has a very impressive top speed. That should come as little surprise as he has so often proved it over the last few years but he seems to have stepped it up a further notch.

 

However, Viviani rarely gets the chance to benefit maximally from his fast sprint as he is usually very poorly positioned when the speed ramps up in the finale. Hence, he often finishes far down the ranking and he is heavily reliant on a good lead-out train which will be even more important in tomorrow's tricky sprint.

 

Unfortunately, Viviani doesn't have the strongest train in this race. Even though Oscar Gatto, Davide Villella, Daniele Ratto and Michel Koch are all fast riders, they do not have an awful lot of experience in setting up a train for their fast sprinter and it will be hard for Viviani to reach that final corner in one of the best positions. He will be extremely motivated to take the win which narrowly escaped him 12 months ago but tomorrow's sprint will be a difficult affair. Nonetheless, he is probably the only rider who is fast enough to potentially beat Kittel and so he deserves a status as favourite.

 

The short finishing straight suits Nacer Bouhanni perfectly and the Frenchman is probably the only other rider who has the speed to beat the German. Unlike Viviani, Bouhanni has a strong lead-out train to support him and even though the last-minute withdrawal of Geoffrey Soupe will be dearly felt, he can still count on Laurent Pichon, Murilo Fischer and final lead-out man Sebastien Chavanel. Those riders have been riding a lot together in the early part of the season and the team should be able to position Bouhanni perfectly.

 

In this sprint, Bouhanni's main asset is his fast kick which allows him to accelerate very quickly and so he benefits from the type of sprint that the opening stage offers. If he gets the jump on Kittel in the tailwind sprint, it may be enough for the Frenchman to take the win.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo got his season off to a great start when he won a stage in San Luis but he broke his collarbone just a few days later. He missed most of the sprint season but his fourth place in the Tour de Romandie prologue proves that he has reached peak condition in time for his big target. He showed his speed when he came from very far behind to take third in the sprint on the second stage of the Swiss race and is clearly ready for the Giro.

 

Nizzolo has one of the strongest teams to support him as Eugenio Alafaci, Boy Van Poppel and Danilo Hondo should form a very solid train. Hondo and Nizzolo may have a lot of experience in working together but the rest of train is a rather new combination. It may take some time for them to put things perfectly together but Hondo is immensely experienced and should still be able to drop off Nizzolo in a good position. It will be hard for him to win the stage but a podium spot is certainly within his reach.

 

When it comes to lead-out support, Michael Matthews is better off than most as he can count on the likes of Brett Lancaster and Mitchell Docker in the finale. Orica-GreenEDGE are probably the only team that can potentially beat Giant-Shimano in those hectic final moments and there is a chance that Matthews will be the first sprinter through that final corner.

 

Such a flat, easy stage doesn't suit him perfectly though as he doesn't have the top speed to compete with the faster riders. If his team manages to position him well, however, he could finish very close to the front. In any case he is likely to be the first Orica-GreenEDGE rider across the line and unless Petacchi finishes in the top 2, he should take the maglia rosa.

 

Roberto Ferrari is pretty much on his own in the sprints and in tomorrow's stage that is an obvious disadvantage. However, the Italian has a lot of experience in fighting for position and he often manages to get onto the wheel that he has chosen. Furthermore, he is a very explosive sprinter who is perfectly suited to the short finishing straight.

 

The combination of acceleration and positioning is just what is needed in tomorrow's sprint and this makes Ferrari an obvious danger. He clearly isn't as fast as he was a few years ago but in Romandie he showed some solid condition. He couldn't have asked for a better sprint to kick things off and he may get Lampre's race off to a great start.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Last year Davide Appollonio suffered from health issues that made it impossible for him to prove his strength but this year he is back to his best. Both in Roma Maxima and Romandie, he won a bunch sprint for a minor placing and he is clearly riding really well at the moment. He mostly excels in harder races and he also has to overcome the complete lack of support in the finale. However, he usually handles the positioning really well and even though he won't win tomorrow's stage, he could be close to the best.

 

Nicola Ruffoni was a surprise inclusion on the Bardiani roster as the 23-year-old neo-pro hasn't done an awful lot of racing at the highest level. However, he has shown lots of promise so far and the team has decided to take the risk of sending him to a grand tour at this early stage of his career. He is unlikely to make it to the finish but the team is hopeful that he can shine in the first week.

 

Ruffoni has already taken some top 10 finishes against some high-calibre competition in both Oman and De Panne and he has proved that he can handle the positioning and has the speed to be up there with the best. In this race, he can count on solid support from Sonny Colbrelli and Marco Canola and those two riders should be able to put him into a good spot for the final turn. If he can handle the pressure of one of the biggest race in the world, he could get Bardiani's race off to a flying start by taking a top 5 result.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Elia Viviani, Nacer Bouhanni

Outsiders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Michael Matthews, Roberto Ferrari

Jokers: Davide Appollonio, Nicola Ruffoni