Marcel Kittel won the opening sprint battle of the Giro d'Italia in superior fashion and the German will get an immediate chance to continue his momentum when the Irish adventure comes to a close with another flat stage tomorrow. After today's calm affair, however, more wind is expected on the journey to the Irish capital of Dublin and we could witness a significantly more nervous affair on another wet day on the Emerald Isle.

 

The course

The sprinters that were left disappointed get an immediate chance to take revenge when the Irish adventure comes to an end with the third stage that brings the riders over 187km from Armagh in the Northern Ireland to the Irish capital of Dublin. The first part of the stage is slightly “bumpy”, with two KOM climbs, followed by a mainly flat second part.

 

The first half of the route crosses the hills of Armagh, with a few, short up and downs and spurts,

such as Market Hill (4.7km, 2.8%, max. 8%) and Fews Forest (4.1km, 4.1%, max. 8%) (both

are 4th category KOMs). Upon entering the Republic of Ireland, an intermediate sprint in set Dundalk and the feed zone is located in Castlebellingham, shortly after. The road leading to the finish winds along the coastline.

 

Unlike the previous day's very non-technical finish, the final kilometres are a very complicated affair. A series of quite sharp bends along the city roads just before the flamme rouge  lead past the Liffey River and to the last km, marked by a left-right s-bend 400 m before the finish. The home stretch is 350-m long, on 8-m wide, asphalted roadway.

 

It will be the second time that Dublin hosts a grand tour after Chris Boardman won the opening prologue and Tom Steels sprinted to the victory in the first road stage of the 1998 Tour de France in the Irish capital.

 

 

 

The weather

Northern Ireland did nothing to change its reputation as being a very wet country in today's first road stage as the riders rode almost the entire stage under torrential rain and tomorrow's final leg on the Emerald Isle should do nothing to change it either. Again rain is expected for almost the entire day and even though there may be a few dry periods, the riders will need to take on plenty of clothes to stay warm on what should be another very wet stage. The temperatures will be virtually unchanged as it should reach a maximum of 12 degrees towards the end of the stage.

 

Today's stage was a pretty calm affair as the wind failed to play much of a role but tomorrow it should be significantly windier. A rather strong wind will be blowing from a westerly direction, meaning that the riders will have a crosswind almost all day. In the finale, they will turn into a cross-headwind as they head towards Dublin and it will become a direct headwind inside the final 10km. Those conditions will be the dominant until the riders pass the Liffey river just before the flamme rouge. A short tailwind section will lead to the final 900m where the riders will have a crosswind from the right.

 

The favourites

With the wet conditions, today's stage was certainly not an enjoyable affair for the Giro riders but it ended up being a much calmer affair than many had feared. For several months, the possible dangers of the long run down the coast had been a hot topic but on a relatively calm day in Northern Ireland, the wind failed to play any role and the GC riders could hide themselves in the peloton for most of the day before moving to the front in the very finale.

 

Tomorrow's final stage on the Emerald Isle may not have been feared as much as the first road stage but with the wind set to pick up, we could witness a much more dramatic stage. There will be a direct crosswind almost all day and if the roads are exposed, things could split up. The wind will not come from the sea, however, and today the riders seemed to have a lot of shelter on the right-hand side but if there are some exposed sections, dangers could occur.

 

Today we had very few crashes but the windier conditions should make tomorrow's stage a lot more nervous. This will increase the risk of crashes significantly and if the wind fails to split the peloton, there is a chance that a selection will be made when riders are caught behind those unfortunate incidents. All the sprinters and the GC riders want to stay near the front and the wet conditions won't make things any more safe.

 

Most teams will enter the stage with the plan to stay safe buttThere is a chance that a few teams will try to attack in the crosswinds. BMC have a really powerful roster for this kind of racing and they could try to exploit the situation. Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Belkin are also traditionally very strong in this kind of racing and could be teams that will try to make a selection. Today Joaquim Rodriguez and Katusha had a very relaxed approach to their position and almost the entire team was constantly near the back of the peloton. If the chance is there to set one of the favourites a little further back, we could see a few teams try to do so.

 

There is a bigger chance that the entire peloton won't be together at the finish but regardless of potential splits in the peloton, it should end in some kind of sprint finish. Giant-Shimano and Orica-GreenEDGE will again combine forces to keep the early break under control and the nervousness alone will ramp up the speed significantly.

 

Today's sprint was a tricky affair due to the turn very close to the finish as the riders that finished near the front were mostly those that entered that corner in one of the leading positions. Tomorrow it should be a different affair as the finishing straight is much longer and even though there are more turns in the finale, it should be easier to move up. The s-turn 400m from the line seems to be rather easy and the riders won't have to touch their brakes very much, meaning that the finishing straight is effectively 900m long.

 

Today Marcel Kittel proved what everybody already knew: that he is unrivalled when it comes to pure speed. The way he powered clear of everyone else despite being very poorly positioned shows that if he gets a clear run to the line, no one will be able to beat him.

 

With a longer finishing straight, however, tomorrow's sprint should suit a power sprinter like Kittel even better as he has much longer time to reach his incredible top speed. Furthermore, he is unlikely to get caught out in the crosswinds as the Giant-Shimano team is very strong in this kind of racing and when he famously missed out on last year's crosswind stage of the Tour de France, it was due to an untimely mechanical, not poor position.

 

Today's stage also revealed a chink in his armor though. The Giant-Shimano train is usually one of the strongest but today they messed it up completely. In fact, Kittel was completely on his own in the finale and entered the corner too far back. He was a bit lucky that he got a clear run to the line as he could easily have been boxed in and he may not be so lucky twice in a row.

 

He has most of his usual lead-out train at his disposal but he misses Koen De Kort dearly, with the Dutchman usually being the third rider in the chain ahead of Tom Veelers and Kittel. Today's failure comes after a number of other less successful outing and it seems that the Giant train is not running too smoothly this year.

 

Nonetheless, it is hard to look beyond Kittel as the major favourite. With his impressive top speed, he can only be beaten if he gets boxed in the finish. His lead-out train are unlikely to mess it up twice in a row and as tomorrow's sprint also suits him better, he is the man to beat.

 

Today Cannondale showed their intentions when they hit the front in the finale but they burnt their matches too early and when the sprint was launched, Elia Viviani was too far back. That was no big surprise though as Viviani doesn't have the strongest train in this race and he usually handles the positioning rather poorly.

 

Tomorrow's sprint, however, should suit him much better as the longer finishing straight makes it more about speed than positioning. Of course there is again a big chance that he will be poorly positioned but if he get the clear run to the line, he can make use of the impressive speed he showed in Turkey to challenge Kittel.

 

As we had pointed out in our previous preview, today's sprint suited Nacer Bouhanni down to the ground. The short finishing straight made acceleration and positioning important and Bouhanni is a very skilled athlete in those two areas.

 

Tomorrow's sprint isn't as well-suited to Bouhanni but he should still be in the mix. Today his FDJ team proved how far they have come in their work with the lead-out train and Laurent Pichon and Sebastien Chavanel did a great job in positioning the fast Frenchman. That kind of support is crucial and Bouhanni is very unlikely to miss out completely. He is one of the three fastest sprinters in this race and if Kittel gets boxed in, he could be the man to benefit from the German's misfortune.

 

It was a pleasure to see how the dedicated effort of Trek to build a lead-out train for Giacomo Nizzolo has paid off as they did an excellent job to position their young Italian sprinter in the finale. In the very end, however, they lacked the experience and speed to remain on the front but they still managed to drop off Nizzolo on Kittel's wheel.

 

With Kittel being positioned far back, it ended up being a bad decision but Nizzolo proved how fast he is by taking third in the sprint. His lead-out train will only get better as they get more experienced and there is a great chance that Nizzolo will start the sprint in a good position. As he is one of the fastest riders, he could again finish on the podium.

 

Roberto Ferrari again proved that he is one of the best when it comes to positioning in a hectic finale. Despite being completely on his own, he entered the final turn in a perfect position but he hesitated a moment in the slippery conditions, forcing him to lose a bit too much speed. He is obviously in excellent condition and even though he is no longer as fast as he once was, he still has an incredible top speed.

 

Due to his positioning, he rarely fails completely in the sprints and even though it will be hard to win for an isolated sprinter, we won't be surprised to see him on the podium.

 

It is always a long shot to select Francesco Chicchi as a potential winner of a stage as the Neri Sottoli rider often finishes outside the top 10. His ability to handle the positioning is very bad and he rarely gets the chance to sprint.

 

However, Chicchi has an incredible top speed and in fact he is one of the select few that can win a stage in this Giro d'Italia. Things have to go right for him as he needs to start his sprint in a solid position and see an opening in the finale. Tomorrow's long finishing straight should suit him well though and even though he will probably finish outside the top 10, he is one of the select few that can actually win.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Yesterday we pointed to Niccola Ruffoni but the young Italian didn't have much luck in the finale. The battle for position didn't suit him well and so tomorrow's longer finishing straight should be an advantage. He certainly has the speed to mix it up with the best and there is a greater chance that he will be allowed to show off those skills on a longer finishing straight.

 

Kenny Dehaes didn't do today's sprint as he lost the wheel of his lead-out and instead Tosh van der Sande was the best finisher for Lotto Belisol. However, the Belgian is very fast in these easy stages where the sprint comes at the end of a mostly flat day. Over the last two years he has improved a lot in the sprints and he has already had some success this season.

 

He has failed to make an impression in the grand tours but this year he has a much better train than he had in the 2013 Giro. Unfortunately, he is often poorly positioned in the finale but if he overcomes that hurdle, he has the speed to finish on the podium. Tomorrow's longer finishing straight will suit him well and we wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top 5.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Elia Viviani, Nacer Bouhanni

Outsiders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Roberto Ferrari, Francesco Chicchi

Jokers: Niccola Ruffoni, Kenny Dehaes