Having returned to Italy, the Giro d'Italia continues with a short, fast stage that should offer the sprinters their third straight chance to go for glory. Most of the stage, however, takes place on a very technical circuit in Bari and with more rain forecasted, it could turn in to a tricky and dangerous affair.

 

The course

The Giro organizers have been granted an exception from the rules to include an extra and very early rest day that will allow the entire circus to travel from Dublin in the northwestern corner of Europe to Giovinazzo in the deep south of Italy. The riders even get a gentle reintroduction to racing as the Italian part of the race starts with what is probably the easiest stage of the entire race.

 

The riders head over just 112km from Giovinazzo on the Adriatic coast to Bari a little further down the coastline. It's a short and completely level stage, with just a few difficulties, mainly street furniture and roundabouts, until the final circuit (with a length of 8.250 km), to be covered 8 times. An intermediate sprint is

set upon the fifth passage of the line.

 

What the stage lacks in climbing, however, it has in technical difficulty. The circuit in Bari is a very complicated affair as it mostly runs along a winding coastal road. It runs mainly along broad and well-paved avenues but the final part has several difficult turns. Inside the final 2km, the riders will have to negotiate no less than 5 sharp turns, with two of them coming after the passage of the flamme rouge. The 350m long home stretch runs slightly uphill, on 8m wide roadway.

 

The stage may take place along the coast but the wind rarely plays any kind of role in Italian races. Hence, it should be mostly a calm day but the technical nature of the circuit will make the final laps a stressful affair. For the GC riders, it will be important to stay in front as splits could easily happen in the complicated finale and the risk of crashes is big. For the pure sprinters, it will be the final chance to take the maglia rosa as the race heads into hillier terrain on stage 5 and so the unavoidable bunch sprint will be hotly contested.

 

The weather

After three wet days in Ireland, the riders had been looking forward to the arrival in the south of Italy that is usually hot and sunny at this time of the year. Hence, they will be deeply disappointed to learn that Bari won't be its usual friendly self.

 

The riders will have nice sunshine in the morning hours but by the time the short stage takes off in the middle of the afternoon, things will have completely changed. The wind direction will change and bring along a shower that should make the technical roads in Bari wet and dangerous.

 

The temperature will reach a pleasant maximum of 25 degrees which is in sharp contrast to the Irish cold. In the morning hours, there will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction but for the race it should have changed to a stronger, southerly breeze. This means that the riders will mostly have a crosswind in the first part of the stage while there will also predominantly be a crosswind on the finishing circuit. The riders will turn into a headwind 3km from the line before reaching a short tailwind section just after the flamme rouge. There will be a crosswind from the left on the 350m finishing straight

 

 

 

The favourites

Short, flat circuit races are usually destined to end in a bunch sprint and this stage has been designed to offer the sprinters one final chance before the peloton heads into hillier terrain on Wednesday. Until now, the race has been dominated by the sprinters but the pure fast finishers need to make the most of this opportunity as they may have to wait until next week before again getting a chance to show off their speed.

 

Hence, there is virtually no chance that this stage won't end in a bunch sprint. The wind rarely plays a role in Italy but in this part of the country, it can be stronger than usual. If it had come from the sea, the finishing circuit could have been a bit tricky but as it comes from the opposite direction and the stage takes place in a city, the roads will be less exposed. Hence, there is little reason to be worried about potential echelons.

 

Until now, the break has taken off very early and this will again be the case tomorrow. The upcoming stages are much more suited to breakaways and most riders will be keen to save energy for later. Giant-Shimano and Orica-GreenEDGE will keep things under control and may get a bit of assistance from FDJ and Cannondale to bring it back together for a bunch sprint in what should be a straightforward scenario.

 

The wind may be unlikely to play a role but the rain will certainly have an impact. The combination of tricky corners and wet roads in a city where it rarely rains, can turn the race into a pretty dangerous affair. There is a big chance that we will see a lot of crashes.

 

Furthermore, we have seen splits in the peloton in the first two sprint stages and in a technical final, the risk of such splits are even bigger. The GC riders all know that and many have regretted their unfortunate time losses over the last few days. This will only make things all the more nervous as they will all want to stay near the very front. There is a big chance that new splits will occur and riders like Joaquim Rodriguez and Domenico Pozzovivo could easily end their day by losing a few more seconds.

 

The stage win, however, will be decided by the sprinters and it is of course hard not to pick Marcel Kittel as the big favourite. His performance in yesterday's stage was one of the most impressive over the last few years and it again underlined the obvious fact that he is unrivalled when it comes to top speed.

 

Tomorrow's stage, however, could create a surprise as it will be the most difficult of the early sprint stages for the German power sprinter. While the first two road stages have underlined his impressive speed, it has also made it clear that his usually flawless Giant-Shimano train is not firing on all cylinders. In both previous sprints, Kittel have been in a very poor position by the time they have entered the finishing straight and he has had to make a very long sprint. It has certainly made his wins way more impressive but it is also very risky business and yesterday he actually thought that he had already been beaten by the time he launched his sprint.

 

Tomorrow's sprint is again characterized by a very short finishing straight and this time there are even more turns in the finale. This means that positioning will be extremely important and this stage will be won almost more by the lead-out trains than by the sprinters themselves. If you are not in a good position 1500m from the line, it will be very hard to move up and we should again see a big battle between the trains for the front positions in the finale.

 

Yesterday it was almost a sprint between Cannondale, Sky, Giant-Shimano and FDJ to get to the turn that led onto the bridge, in the first position. The former two teams won the battle, meaning that Elia Viviani and Ben Swift were far better positioned than Kittel and Nacer Bouhanni. For the second day in a row, the Giant-Shimano train came up short and it is hard to see what should change this hierarchy among the trains. Furthermore, Kittel is usually not taking too many risks in the finales and on a wet, technical circuit this could become costly.

 

The combination of all those factors means that Kittel is likely to again be poorly positioned for the sprint. This makes the risk of being boxed in much bigger and he will probably again have to produce the kind of sprint he did yesterday to come away with the win. As he is so much faster than anyone else, we will still put him on top of the list of favourites but this time we wouldn't be surprised if he gets beaten.

 

The rider most likely to do is Nacer Bouhanni. The first two sprints have clearly underlined that he is the second fastest sprinter in this race. On stage two, he did a long sprint and was a very convincing second while yesterday he came back from a poor position to take fifth, passing several riders in the process.

 

In fact it was very unusual for Bouhanni to be so badly positioned. The FDJ rider is usually exceptionally strong when it comes to finding the right spot and that will be even more important on tomorrow's technical circuit. Furthermore, he is infamously known for his risky riding style which will be a clear advantage on the wet roads in Bari. Finally, the many corners make acceleration very important and Bouhanni is a very explosive sprinter.

 

Until now his FDJ train hasn't excelled too much but on paper, the combination of Murilo Fischer, Laurent Pichon and Sebastien Chavanel is a winning one. Tomorrow could be one of Bouhanni's best chances in the entire race and we won't be surprised to see him take his first grand tour victory in Bari.

 

Elia Viviani sprinted excellently in the Tour of Turkey but has been surprisingly slow in the first two sprints. In both stages, his Cannondale team has done an excellent work and it was Oscar Gatto who won the battle for the first position through the important turn in yesterday's sprint. Daniele Ratto then made a great lead-out before Edvald Boasson Hagen took over from Sky and Viviani actually started his sprint in the best possible position.

 

Nonetheless, he was easily passed by Ben Swift who - at least on paper - should not be as fast as Viviani. This must clearly be a cause for concern in the Cannondale camp. On the other hand, they will be very pleased by the lead-out train which currently seems to be the strongest in the race.

 

If they again manage to deliver Viviani on the front, the Cannondale sprinter has a big chance to win the stage. Positioning will be very important in tomorrow's stage and by virtue of his team, Viviani has a clear advantage. We know that he has the speed to finish it off and if he finally shows those fast Turkey legs, his first grand tour win could be on the cards.

 

Ben Swift is no pure sprinter and usually comes up short against the fastest riders in the world. In this race, however, he seems to be sprinting better than ever before. In stage 2, his wheel slipped in the final corner but by the time he got up to speed, he came very fast. Yesterday he easily passed Viviani after having been given the perfect lead-out.

 

In fact, the sky train of Bernhard Eisel, Chris Sutton and Edvald Boasson Hagen proved to be one of the strongest in yesterday's stage and as positioning plays such a big role tomorrow, Swift has a clear advantage. As he is also sprinting very well, tomorrow could be his chance to shine.

 

As we have pointed out in our previous previews, Roberto Ferrari is on his own in the sprints but that isn't too much of a problem. He usually positions himself very well and it was no surprise to see him on Kittel's wheel in yesterday's sprint. That ended up being a bad choice but it again underlined his skills in the battle for position.

 

Furthermore, Ferrari has been sprinting really well so far and tomorrow's technical circuit suits a rider with a strong kick and a great positioning ability. That's exactly what Ferrari has and he will have looked much forward to a stage that suits him down to the ground.

 

Like Swift, Michael Matthews in no pure sprinter and so tomorrow's stage really doesn't suit him. On the other hand, he has one of the strongest lead-out trains in the race as it was proved in Belfast where it was Brett Lancaster and Mitchell Docker that made Matthews enter the final turn as the first sprinter.

 

He may lack the speed to beat the faster riders but tomorrow it will be more about positioning. This should play into his hands and if the Orica-GreenEDGE train again makes things come together, he should be in the mix.

 

Finally, we will select our joker. . Last year Davide Appollonio suffered from health issues that made it impossible for him to prove his strength but this year he is back to his best. Both in Roma Maxima and Romandie, he won a bunch sprint for a minor placing and he is clearly riding really well at the moment. He mostly excels in harder races and he also has to overcome the complete lack of support in the finale. However, he usually handles the positioning really well and that's very important in tomorrow's stage. He showed off those skills by taking 4th in yesterday's stage. Even though he probably lacks the top speed to win, we wouldn't be surprised to see him on the podium.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Marcel Kittel

Other winner candidates: Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani

Outsiders: Ben Swift, Roberto Ferrari, Michael Matthews

Joker: Davide Appollonio