Today's stage proved to be a bit harder than most had expected and it ended up being a finish more for GC riders than puncheurs. The same riders are expected to feature near the front in tomorrow's mammoth 247km stage that offers an uphill finish on a longer climb with a less steep finale.

 

The course

Unlike, the Tour and the Vuelta, the Giro has traditionally always had some very long stages and this year will be no different. On the sixth day of racing, the riders will take on a mammoth 247km stage from Sassano to Montecassino as they have now reached the Tyrrhenian coast and will start their long journey to the northern part of the country and the major mountains.

 

The stage is almost entirely flat as the 247km lead us through Campania and Lazio. After the start, marked by some ups and downs, the route crosses Salerno, Cava de’ Tirreni (KOM, 5.4km, 3.5%, max. 8%), Maddaloni (intermediate sprint), Caserta, Santa Maria Capua Vetere and finally reaches the Abbey of Montecassino at the end of the final climb. The route crosses many town centers, with traffic islands, roundabouts, speed bumps (etc.) being the main obstacles.

 

A long day in the saddle will come to an exciting end as the race finishes at the top of the 8.7km category 2 climb to Montecassino with an average gradient of 5.1% (with peaks reaching as high as 10%). After the initial hairpin bends, the route then spirals up the mountain where the Abbey is located, for the final 1.8km and eventually flattens out in the final part. The steepest section comes right at the bottom of the climb and then it's a rather constant 4-6% gradient until the final kilometre where the gradient drops to just 2-3%. The 40m long home stretch (on 6m long,

asphalted roadway) bends slightly.

 

The climb was used at the end of a stage in the 2011 Baby Giro and many riders in the Giro peloton will have fond memories from that day. Stefano Agostini and Winner Anacona who is in this race, arrived at the finish together where the Italian beat his Colombian rival. 9 seconds later Enrico Battaglin beat Moreno Moser in the sprint for third, with Fabio Aru following in 6th, and those three riders are all at the start line of the Giro as well. Mattia Cattaneo rolled across the line in 9th to defend his leader's jersey and he will team up with Anacona as part of the Lampre team in this year's Italian grand tour but they are likely to ride in support of today's stage winner Diego Ulissi who is perfectly suited to this kind of climb.

 

 

 

The weather

The riders really have not had any luck in this year's Giro d'Italia. After riding under torrential rain in Ireland, it has started to rain just as the riders entered the finale of the first two Italian stages. They will hope that things will return to normal tomorrow and there is a great chance that it will.

 

The riders can expect a day with beautiful sunshine but rain is forecasted in the evening and could make its presence felt in the finale. With no descent, however, it will play less of a role. It will still be unusually cold as the temperature is only expected to reach a maximum of 15 degrees.

 

It should be a lot less windy than it was today as there will only be a light wind from a northerly direction, meaning that the riders will have a cross-headwind for almost the entire stage. On the final climb, they will have both head-, tail- and crosswind sections but it will be headwind between the 1.5km to 0.8km to go signs. Then the riders will gradually turn into a tailwind before it again turns into a headwind for the final 40m.

 

The favourites

Today's stage was one of those that made the riders anxious about what to expect. How hard would the final climb be? Was it one for puncheurs, strong sprinters or GC riders? In the end, it proved to be one for the light puncheurs and GC riders and was a bit harder than many had expected.

 

Tomorrow's stage will be a bit of the same as it again finishes on a climb that could suit different kinds of riders and unlike today, the riders won't do it twice in the finale. Hence, they will be a bit on unknown territory when they hit the bottom of the final climb.

 

Compared to today's finishing climb, tomorrow's ascent is longer which should tip the balance in favour on the climbers. On the other hand, it is less steep and even flattens out near the top. With a maximum gradient of 10%, it has a steeper section than today's climb but it comes right at the bottom and so won't play a big role. From there, it is a very steady 4-6% gradient until it final kilometre where it becomes easier. This will favour the faster, punchier guys.

 

Hence, there are different aspects of the final climb that suit different kind of riders but we can more or less expect the same riders that dominated today's finale, to again come to the fore. Summit finishes on 5% climbs usually end in a sprint from a 20-30 rider group and it is again the likely outcome of tomorrow's stage, with the flatter finish favouring the fast riders over the puncheurs.

 

Tomorrow's stage is a very long affair and the distance will play a role in the outcome of the race. It will also have an impact on the opening part of the stage and it will require a lot of work all day to keep an early break in check.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE had marked today's stage out as one of their biggest objectives for Michael Matthews and even though they came up short, they managed to defend their leader's jersey. Matthews has again made tomorrow's stage a clear target and there is no chance that the Australian team will give up the maglia rosa without a fight. Hence, they will again take on the responsibility to chase for most of the day.

 

However, Svein Tuft, Cameron Meyer, Mitchell Docker and Michael Hepburn all did an awful lot of work today and it will be hard for them to do the same kind of effort tomorrow in a stage that is 50km longer than today's. Bigger time gaps will have opened up and if a big break with no dangerous riders go up the road, they may be content with the situation and allow them to stay away. This could open the door for an early breakaway to battle it out for the win but they will have no chance if the break contains riders that are close to the maglia rosa.

 

On the other hand, Lampre-Merida, Trek and Bardiani have marked this stage out as a clear objective and those teams are all pretty fresh. There should be a lot of interest in making it back together for an uphill sprint from a reduced group of favourites and so it will be hard for the early break to stay away. The headwind won't make it any easier and so we put our money on the peloton to reel in the early break.

 

Despite the differences between the finishing climbs, none of them are really steep and we should see the same riders come to the fore. This means that we will again put Enrico Battaglin at the top of our list of favourites. The young Italian didn't feature near the front in today's stage but it had nothing to do with bad legs. Like so many other he was caught out behind the crash on the penultimate climb and had to stop for around 30 seconds. Despite his hard chase effort, he failed to make the junction and ultimately rolled across the line with a time loss of 1.42.

 

Tomorrow's finishing climb suits him even better than today's. He won't have any problems handling the length of the ascent and compared to many of the GC riders that dominated today's finale, he is much faster in tomorrow's almost flat sprint. In fact, the finale is very similar to the one in Serra San Bruno where he won his memorable Giro stage 12 months ago. Back then, the line was also located at the top of a long, gradual ascent that flattened out near the top.

 

As we said yesterday, Battaglin's condition is a bit uncertain as he broke his metacarpal in a crash at Milan-Sanremo and only made his return to competition one month ago. His performances so far in the Giro and in the Giro del Trentino, however, do nothing to suggest that he has not reached a solid condition for this race and tomorrow's stage is probably the one that suits him the best. Even though we didn't get the chance to see what he could do today, we again put our money on the young Italian.

 

After today's excellent showing, it is of course hard not to include Diego Ulissi as one of the big favourites.

In today's finale he was in a class of his own and he has obviously put his disappointing Ardennes campaign behind him. Tomorrow's stage is another one that suits him really well and he has marked it out as another clear objective.

 

However, there a number of different factors that speak against another Ulissi win. He won't have any problems handling the longer climb but the overall distance of the stage may be a problem. Ulissi has always had problems in the very long race and that could again bother him in tomorrow's stage.

 

Furthermore, the sprint will be on almost flat roads and even though he is fast, he is better suited to the steeper uphill sprints. In this kind of finish, there are certainly faster riders than him and he will hope that the final climb will be raced at a very high speed to tire out his faster rivals. If they arrive at the top with fatigued legs, he may again use the fabulous punch he showed today to take another great stage win.

 

Today's stage was the big objective for Michael Matthews and he did really well to defend himself in a stage that turned out to be harder than expected. Heading into the stage, he claimed that he was more confident in his climbing than his sprinting and his performance suggested that he had a good reason to be so.

 

In the finale, Matthews was forced to close the gap to Edvald Boasson Hagen, Joaquim Rodriguez and Julian Arredondo as his maglia rosa was under threat, and this took the sting out of his legs in the headwind. He still did an impressive performance to take sixth and this shows just how strong he is. He may not have been able to beat Ulissi but he would certainly have been closer to the front if things had panned out slightly differently.

 

Tomorrow's longer climb will certainly be a challenge for Matthews who is no pure climber but the flatter sprint should suit him well. If he is there at the end, he should be the fastest rider in this kind of finish and with his current climbing legs, it will be a tough ask for the rivals to get rid of him. The length of the climb raises some questions but Matthews certainly has a big chance of winning a stage in the maglia rosa.

 

Today Julian Arredondo proved that he is in great condition and the tiny Colombian is perfectly suited to this kind of punchy finishes. In fact, today's stage was just an appetizer as his real goal comes tomorrow.

 

The longer climb should suit him better but the it will be hard for him to actually take the win. As a puncheur, he needs steeper gradients to make a difference and in an almost flat sprint, he is not as fast as the likes of Ulissi and Battaglin. His best chance may be to attack a bit further out when the road is slightly steeper. If the climb becomes really hard, however, the faster riders may have been dropped and then he definitely has a chance.

 

Today Edvald Boasson Hagen proved that he is climbing excellently at the moment but in the finale, the climb got a bit too steep for him. Hence, he will relish tomorrow's easier gradient and if he makes it to the top he will be very hard to beat in this kind of sprint.

 

For Boasson Hagen, the main challenge will be to survive the length of the climb. He is a bug guy and to make it up a 10km ascent with the best is a tough ask. If he is there at the end, however, he will obviously be one of the favourites in a sprint finish.

 

Already in the Giro del Trentino, Cadel Evans proved that he is back to his best and today he again put his excellent condition on show. Tomorrow he could very well pick a few more bonus seconds and he will definitely give it a shot in the sprint.

 

The longer climber should suit him well and he is also rather fast in an almost flat sprint. For him to win, however, it will require the stage to become really selective as he needs to get rid of the likes of Matthews, Boasson Hagen, Ulissi and Battaglin and it woul be no surprise to see BMC take on a pace-setting role.

 

Finally, we will point to a few jokers. Today Fabio Felline was riding really well but he was one of the riders to go down on the treacherous descent in the finale. Having shown those great climbing legs, he may again survive the climb in tomorrow's finale and then he has the sprint to finish it off.

 

The length of the climb will be a challenge for Felline but 12 months ago he finished second in the Serra San Bruno stage which had a finish that is very similar to tomorrow's. He will have to discuss the leadership with Julian Arredondo but if he is there at the end, he should be the fastest in this flatter sprint.

 

Yesterday we pointed to Mauro Finetto but the Neri Sottoli rider was one of many to be held up behind the crashes. Tomorrow's stage again looks good for the Italian who will be eager to make amends.

 

Finetto should have no trouble handling this longer climb and he will only benefit from the easier gradients in the finale. With Simone Ponzi showing no signs of form in today's stage, he will be the Neri Sottoli leader and definitely has a shot at a stage win.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Enrico Battaglin

Other winner candidates: Diego Ulissi, Michael Matthews

Outsiders: Julian Arredondo, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Cadel Evans

Jokers: Fabio Felline, Mauro Finetto