The sixth stage of the Giro d'Italia ended up being a much more dramatic affair than expected and many teams will be licking their wounds and evaluating their injuries before making any plans for tomorrow's seventh stage. A lumpy course will test the riders but even though it could be chance for a breakaway, a lot of teams have set their sights on a sprint finish.

 

The course

The sprinters have endured two days of suffering and will relish the chance to get back in action in stage seven that is the third in a row with a distance of more than 200km. The riders continue their long northerly run when they head over 211km from Frosinone to Foligno, passing close to the capital of Rome along the way.

 

It's a wavy stage, with just a few difficult climbs. Right after the start, the route climbs the Arcinazzo ascent (category 3, 16.9km, 3.6%, max. 10%), and then crosses the Apennines up to Rieti, running along wavy roads marked by many twists and turns, but with no real climb. The feed zone is located in Posticciola, just past Lake Turano. The intermediate bonus sprint is set in Rieti.

 

The course then runs up the Forca di Arrone (3.8km, 3.4%) and Montefranco climbs (3.3km, 4.6%), which do not count towards the KOM classification. Valico della Somma (category 4, 6.5km, 4.9%, max. 8%) is the last climb before the descent towards Spoleto, followed by a very fast-running 39.5km route until the finish.

 

The last km are quite uncomplicated, up to 2.000 m to the finish. Here the route features a right-hand bend, immediately followed by two left-hand bends that lead to the home stretch (with 1.300 m to the finish); a slight half-turn interrupts the home stretch 500 m before the finish line, located on a 160m long, 7m wide, asphalted road.

 

Foligno hosted a stage finish in the 2003 Tirreno-Adriatico where Mario Cipollini beat Erik Zabel in a bunch sprint, and in the 2008 edition of the U23 race Giro delle Regioni where Maciej Paterski emerged as the fastest. That day Ben Swift finished 12th and the Brit would love to do better this time around.

 

 

 

The weather

Until now, the weather gods have shown no mercy. In the first three Italian stages, it has started raining just as the riders have started the finale and there is a big chance that tomorrow's stage will again take place in wet conditons.

 

Light rain is forecasted for most of the day, with most of it set to fall late in the afternoon when the stage reaches its conclusion. It will be mixed with a bit of sunshine though. It won't be a hot day as the temperature will reach a maximum of just 13 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that the riders will have a headwind all day. That will continue all the way to the 1300m to go mark where the riders turn into a crosswind. There will be a headwind in the 160m finishing straight.

 

The favourites

Today's stage proved much more dramatic than expected and almost half of the peloton will be licking their wounds after having been involved in today's big crash. All the teams will have to reassess their plans for tomorrow's stage as they will need to know more about the injuries of their riders. Probably many of squads won't make a final decision about how to approach the stage before they have seen how their riders get through the night.

 

This makes the stage even more unpredictable than it already was. The lumpy profile suggests that it could be a day for a breakaway and the tough start to the stage will make it very difficult to control both the size and the composition of the early break. With the first 28km being all uphill, it will be a lot easier for the strongest riders just to ride away from the peloton.

 

On the other hand, several sprint teams have pinpointed this stage as one of their key objectives. If Marcel Kittel had still been in the race, they could not afford to let it slip away as it could have been one of their only chances to do a sprint without having to face the invincible German. With the Giant rider now out of the race, they have a few more opportunities later in the race and so they may not be completely willing to sacrifice their entire team to bring it back to a sprint finish.

 

Nonetheless, there is still a lot of interest in a sprint and the most likely outcome is that the fast finishers will decide the stage. Team Sky did a lot of work in today's stage and they have already made it clear that they hope to bounce back in a stage that suits both Ben Swift and Edvald Boasson Hagen perfectly. Michael Matthews said in the post-race press conference that he aims at making it two in a row and Giant-Shimano also made it clear that this is a stage for them. The Dutch team is mostly focused on the sprints and cannot allow themselves to miss too many sprint opportunities.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE lost Brett Lancaster in today's crash and Svein Tuft and Cameron Meyer - who has fallen ill - are both possible non-starters. This leaves the Australian team with less firepower and they may have to take a step back but the combination of Giant-Shimano and Sky should be enough t secure a sprint finish. If the early break is strong, there is a chance that they will stay away but we will put our money on the fast finishers.

 

In this kind of terrain, the break won't be given much leeway and we won't see the same kind of time gaps that we saw in today's stage - unless the peloton throws in the towel. Furthermore, there is a big chance that Sky and Orica-GreenEDGE will ride hard on the late climbs as they want to get rid of the likes of Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani. Especially Sky have some riders that can do some damage in this kind of terrain and we can expect the race to be really fast all the way from the late hilly zone to the end.

 

Sky have no overall winner candidate and with Dario Cataldo losing time in today's stage, their main target in this race is to get a stage win. They came close in Dublin and would definitely have had a chance in today's stage if 7 of their riders had not gone down. Both Swift and Boasson Hagen hit the deck but none of them suffered any serious injuries and will be ready to go tomorrow.

 

Both will have no trouble getting over the climbs and should be there in the finale. In the flat sprints, they have supported Swift and that is unlikely to change tomorrow. With Boasson Hagen to guide him through the tricky finale, the Brit is an obvious winner candidate and he is our favourite to win the stage.

 

Swift is much more than a pure sprinter and in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco he proved that he can overcome climbs that are much harder than tomorrow's. Compared to many of his rivals, he will be much more fresh at the finish and this could tip the balance into his favour. So far he has been sprinting really well in this race and at the moment it seems that only Nacer Bouhanni and possibly Giacomo Nizzolo are faster than him. Not many teams will have a great lead-out in the finale of such a hard stage but Swift can count on Boasson Hagen. In this very tricky finish, that will make a big difference and should give Swift a big chance to take his first grand tour stage.

 

His biggest rival could be Luka Mezgec. The Slovenian has taken over sprinting duties  from Kittel and tomorrow's stage is one of those in which he excels. He has made sprints at the end of hard, hilly stages his specialty as he proved when he won three stages of the Volta a Catalunya and as he has improved his sprinting massively, he should be one of the fastest riders in this race.

 

He doesn't climb as strongly as Swift and there is a chance that Sky will be able to drop him on the final climb but he should be there in the finale. Most of his lead-out train will be left behind but he can still count on strong riders like Simon Gescke, Tobias Ludvigsson and Georg Preidler. Combined with his fast legs, that could allow him to open his grand tour account.

 

Michael Matthews took his first Giro stage today and he could make it two in a row. Having excelled on the climbs over the last few days, there is no doubt that he will be there in the end. However, a flat sprint doesn't suit him too well and there are definitely faster guys than him.

 

Furthermore, most of his lead-out riders will be left behind on the hills and he may only  be able to count on climbers Ivan Santaromita and Pieter Weening - and maybe the in-form Luke Durbridge. That will be a significant disadvantage in this technical finale and as he will also be up against faster riders, it will be hard for him to repeat today's feat. If the race becomes really hard though, no one can rule out the strongest climber among the sprinters.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo has been sprinting really well in this race, most recently when he almost passed Nacer Bouhanni in the fourth stage. The Italian is certainly no pure sprinter and can usually overcome a rather big climbing burden. He is not as strong as the likes of Swift and Matthews but he definitely has a chance of making it to the finish with the best. If he manages to do so, he could easily be the fastest rider in the bunch and he relishes the technical finale.

 

Elia Viviani won a tough stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné in 2013 and even though he may mostly be known for his sprinting skills, he is also a solid climber. To hang onto his points jersey, he will do his utmost to hang onto the peloton and if he manages to do so, he is a definite winner candidate.

 

In the Tour of Turkey, he was sprinting extremely well but it seems that he hasn't had the same kind of speed in this race. On the other hand, he has had by far the strongest lead-out and even though some of his teammates will be left behind in tomorrow's stage, Oscar Gatto and maybe also Daniele Ratto should be there in the end. That means that he will again be supported excellently and this will be important in the tricky finale.

 

Nacer Bouhanni has proved that he is the fastest rider in the field but tomorrow it will be a tough ask for him to hang onto the peloton. Earlier in his career he actually climbed really well and even had ambitions for the Ardennes classics. As he has improved his sprinting, he seems to have lost a bit of his climbing skills but no one should underestimate him in a stage like tomorrow's.

 

If he makes it to the finish with the best, he is an obvious winner candidate. However, there is a big chance that the climbing will take the sting out of his legs. In last year's Dauphiné, he overcame some serious climbing but when it came to the sprint, he lacked his usual speed. That could again be the case in tomorrow's stage.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Davide Appollonio has made this kind of stages his specialty and after an injury-filled year, he seems to be back to his best. In both the Tour de Romandie and Roma Maxima, he won the sprint of the peloton for the minor placings in races that had a decent amount of climbing. He has a big chance to make it over the climbs and he is used to handling the sprint finishes on his own. He positions himself excellently in the sprints and being more fresh than most of his rivals, he could create a surprise in tomorrow's stage.

 

Alessandro Petacchi hasn't done much sprinting in this race as he has mostly been working for Rigoberto Uran. Furthermore, he is no longer willing to take too many risks in the sprints and as he is also on his own in the finales, it becomes complicated for the veteran Italian.

 

However, he is a solid climber and in a smaller bunch, the battle for position should be less fierce. The technical finale doesn't suit his powerful sprinting style and so it will be hard for him to win but we wouldn't be surprised to see him finish close to the front.

 

Sonny Colbrelli, Mauro Finetto and Simone Ponzi are likely to have red-circled tomorrow's stage. The climbing will certainly not be too tough for them and they all have a decent sprint at the end of a hard race. As none of them are pure sprinters, they will have a hard time going up against the really fast guys but if the race turns out to be really hard, a podium spot is certainly within their reach.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Ben Swift

Other winner candidates: Luka Mezgec, Michael Matthews

Outsiders: Giacomo Nizzolo, Elia Viviani, Nacer Bouhanni

Jokers: Davide Appollonio, Alessandro Petacchi, Simone Ponzi, Sonny Colbrelli, Mauro Finetto