On the smaller climb that they have so far encountered, the riders have had the chance to hide themselves but tomorrow we will get the first true answers about the form of the GC contenders in the Giro d'Italia. The 8th stage offers the first serious climbing in the race and will give a clear indication of who's going to win the first grand tour of the season.

 

The course

Unlike the Tour de France, the Giro d'Italia always has big mountain stages in their weekends and this year it will be no different as the first week comes to an end with two hard summit finishes in the Apennines that should be the scene of the first big battle between the GC riders in some classical Tirreno-Adriatico terrain. The first of those is the hardest one and heads over 179km from yesterday's finish in Perugia to the finish at the top of the Montecopiolo climb as the peloton continues its long northerly run towards the major mountains.

 

This is an unrelenting mountain stage. The route features an endless series of up- and downhill twists and turns, along sometimes worn-out roads. The stage course climbs along the Scheggia Pass and then heads for Cagli. The feed zone is located in Acqualagna, the intermediate sprint is set in Urbania.

 

Here begins a long uphill sector, up to Carpegna and the 6.0km category 1 Cippo di Carpegna steep climb, with an average gradient of 9.9% (and peaks reaching as high as 14%). The first 2.8km are irregular and includes the steepest passage while the final 3.2km are a rather constant affair with a gradient of more than 10%. The descent is very difficult: the roadway is narrow, yet protected, in the first sector. The road then opens out after the Cantoniera Pass in Carpegna. The road descends up to Pennabilli; the final (two-step) ascent begins after crossing Maciano.

 

The final climb has a length of more than 18 km, with a short descent through the town of Villagrande. The first part of the climb features regular gradients and many bends, up to the Villaggio del Lago KOM (category 2, 9.3km, 6.2%, max. 11%). With 6.4km to the finish, the road starts climbing again in an irregular way (category 1, 6.4km, 6.4%, max. 13%), with gradients of more than 10% alternating with easily climbable stretches of 5-6% and even a flat section inside the final kilometre. The finish is marked by a “peak” reaching the highest gradient, 13% just 100m from the finish, with another 500m section of 11% coming 2km from the line. From there, it flattens out until the final steep 500m ramp to the finish. The line sits on an 80m long, 6m wide asphalted stretch.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders finally got the chance to do a finale in dry conditions and they will be pleased to know that better weather has finally arrived in Italy. Tomorrow should be a partly sunny day and the weather forecasts predict that there will be no rain. Furthermore, it will be warmer than it has been in previous days, with the temperature in Montecopiolo expected to reach a maximu of 16 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind from a northerly direction which will run to an easterly breeze later in the day. This means that the riders will have a headwind in the first part of the stage but as both they and the wind change direction, it should become a tailwind. There will be a cross- and tailwind on the first, steep climb. On the finishing climb, there will first be a headwind, then a crosswind before the riders turn in to a tailwind for the final 6km. 2km from the finish it again becomes a crosswind.

 

The favourites

The two first uphill finishes in this year's Giro d'Italia have been mere appetizers. The easy gradients of the finishing climbs turned them into stages for the puncheurs but tomorrow it is a real mountain stage. There will be no room for the punchy sprinters anymore: now it is time for the climbers to come to the fore.

 

Two aspects usually characterize the first mountain stage of a grand tour. First of all, a breakaway almost never makes it to the finish as most of the climbers still believe that they can win the stage. Secondly, they are often raced rather conservatively as no one wants to show any sign of weakness too early in the stage. While everything suggests that the tomorrow's stage will live up to the first aspect, there is a chance that we could see a bit more firework than usual.

 

The stage has a rather easy first part and this will make it much easier to control the size and the strength of the early breakaway. Movistar have probably set their sight on a stage win and there is a big chance that they will make sure that the early escape is not uncontrollable. Orica-GreenEDGE will do nothing to chase down the early break as Matthews' time as race leader is now over but the Spanish team will be expected to assume their position on the front. BMC will probably be happy to see the escape ride away with the bonus seconds but teams like Ag2r, Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Tinkoff-Saxo and Trek may lend the Spanish team a hand.

 

The penultimate climb is a really brutal affair and if it had come at the end of the stage, we would have seen a massive selection. As it is the first mountain stage of the race, we won't see any major attacks from the race favourites already at this early point but the climb can be used to make the finale extremely hard. Nairo Quintana needs the stage to be as tough as possible and it would be no surprise to see Movistar tighten the screws on this very difficult ascent. Several key riders have not appeared to be at their best and it was a major blow that both Gorka Izagirre and Andrey Amador went down in crashes yesterday but the likes of Igor Anton, Eros Capecchi and especially Jose Herrada should be able to set a solid pace on these very steep slopes. Due to the difficulty of the climb, we expect a rather small group to crest the summit and we expect that Movistar have brought back the break at this point of the stage.

 

The final climb is a strange affair. The first part if very regular but not too steep and as there is a headwind, it will probably only be used to ride tempo. The second part is much more suited to attacking as it has several very steep ramps and we should see the race fevourites make their moves in this section. Due to the nature of the climb, it suits the punchy climbers as the many flat stretches will leave room for recovery.

 

The big favourite has to be Nairo Quintana. The Colombian has already lost a bit of time and he hasn't got his race off to the start that he had planned. To boost his confidence, he will need to get his campaign back on track right from the beginning of the mountain stages and we expect that he will go all out in a quest to take the win. Quintana rarely races defensively and he usually enters every mountain stage with victory on his mind. As he already has some time to make up, we expect that he will be the one to buck the trend of defensive riding in the first mountain stage.

 

The final climb doesn't suit him too well as he would have preferred a more regular ascent. There may be more explosive riders than him, but no one should underestimate his acceleration. The steep sections should suit him well and on paper he should be in a class of his own when it comes to climbing skills.

 

He may not have given many signs of strength yet but so far the course hasn't suited him. Tomorrow he is back into his preferred terrain and as he has shown a lot of confidence in his own form, he will be hard to beat. This stage is certainly not the one that suits him best but due to his climbing skills, he will be the man to beat.

 

So far Cadel Evans has been riding impressively well and the Australian could very well take a stage win to further boost his chances of overall victory. Evans may be mostly known for his stubborn fighting but he is also a very explosive rider and this stop-go climb with some very steep ramps should suit him well. He knows how to accelerate on steep sections - he is a past winner of the Fleche Wallonne - and he most recently made use of those skills to win the third stage of the Giro del Trentino.

 

Evans is in a very comfortable position and so he is likely to ride the stage very conservatively, allowing Movistar to take the initiative. If he manages to stay with Quintana all the way to the bottom of the final steep ramp to the finish, he is a very dangerous winner candidate as he is usually faster than the Colombian in that kind of uphill sprint.

 

Julian Arredondo crashed in yesterday's stage which he had singled out as his big objective in this race. He has never had his sights on the GC and so he is not too concerned by the fact that he lost 15 minutes in yesterday's stage. He will concentrate fully on stage wins and his best chance may come tomorrow.

 

Arredondo is not a man for the long regular climbs but he really excels on short, explosive ascents. Tomorrow's irregular mountain suits him down to the ground and his chances will only be enhanced by the fact that it has some really steep sections. The final steep ramp to the finish suits him down to the ground and it is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to beat him in an uphill sprint if he is still there at the end. He showed great condition in stage 5 and claimed to be feeling good before his crash yesterday. Tomorrow he could make amends for the big disappointment.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo has shown incredible condition so far. In stage 5 he was held up behind the crash and while a lot of great climbers not made it back to the front, the tiny Italian did extremely well to bridge the gap. He even finished 9th in a finish that didn't suit him at all. Yesterday he again seemed to be one of the strongest on another climb that didn't do him many favours.

 

Pozzovivo excels on steep climbs that are not too long and tomorrow's ascent should suit him really well. Despite being a rather tiny guy, he has a solid punch on steep ramps and the final climb is not overly long. He seems to be in the form of his life and could take his second Giro stage victory in Montecopiolo.

 

Fabio Duarte had a very difficult 2013 season but showed how strong he is when he finally hit peak condition in the final week of the Giro d'Italia, finishing second behind Nibali in the queen stage. This year he finds himself in a completely different situation as he has entered the race on the back of a great showing in Trentino where he finished with overall winner Evans in both big mountain stages.

 

He was dropped on the descent two days ago but yesterday he bounced back with a great showing and he was clearly one of the strongest on the final climb. He is much stronger in the real mountains and so we expect him to be even better in tomorrow's stage. He is rather explosive and excels on steep gradient and so should be well-suited to the final climb.

 

Rafal Majka seems to be in the form of his life at the moment. Two days ago he sprinted to fifth in a stage that didn't suit him at all and this suddenly elevates the Pole into position of being a real podium contender. He may be looking more forward to the longer, more regular climbs later in the race but he will be eager to make his mark right from the beginning. As the climb doesn't suit him well, it will be hard to win the stage but as he seems to be one of the strongest riders, he definitely can't be ruled out.

 

It is hard to gauge Rigoberto Uran these days. On one hand he has been able to stay in contention in all important stages but on the other hand he hasn't exactly shined in the first two uphill finishes that suited him quite well. However, he seems to be riding well and tomorrow's stage should suit an explosive rider like him rather well. He may struggle a bit more on the more regular climbs later in the race but he is a definite winner candidate in Montecopiolo. We doubt that he has the top level to stay with the best but if he is there at the bottom of the final ramp, his fast sprint should bring him far.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. Daniel Moreno has already fallen out of GC contention as he was in the race only to support Rodriguez but now he has carte blanche to chase stage wins. He won't win the stages that finish with long, regular climbs but tomorrow's explosive affair suits him down to the ground. Yesterday he showed that he is in great condition and he is one of the very best in uphill sprints on steep slopes. If he makes it to the bottom of the final ramp with the best, he could very well win the stage.

 

Pierre Rolland has been a pleasant surprise in this race. We didn't have too many expectations for him but he has been riding much better than we would have imagined. Tomorrow's climb doesn't suit him at all but he won't concern the other riders too much. Everybody knows that he attacks whenever he sees the slightest chance and if the favourites hesitate for a moment, he will take off. At the moment, he seems to have the condition to possibly hold on to the finish.

 

Wilco Kelderman is riding his first grand tour as captain and he seems to be in outstanding condition. Yesterday he won the sprint of the chase group and one day earlier he was also one of the strongest. The young Dutchman is rather explosive and has a solid sprint and those skills will come in handy in tomorrow's stage. It will be hard for him to win but don't be surprised to see him on the podium.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Nairo Quintana

Other winner candidates: Cadel Evans, Julian Arredondo

Outsiders: Domenico Pozzovivo, Fabio Duarte, Rafal Majka, Rigoberto Uran

Jokers: Pierre Rolland, Daniel Moreno, Wilco Kelderman