There was ceasefire between the race favourites in today's first big mountain stage of the Giro d'Italia and despite the route offering another summit finish, it should again be the case in tomorrow's stage. With the final climb being a rather easy affair, tomorrow could be the day when an early break gets the chance to shine.

 

The course

The first week comes to an end with the second straight summit finish but the GC riders will find the finishing climb in today's stage less suited to making a difference. The riders have ended their northerly run and now head in a westerly  direction over 172km from Lugo through Bologna to a finish on the Sestola climb. The stage features a completely flat first part up to Vignola, where the route enters the Apennines. The feed zone is located between Zola Predosa and Crespellano. After crossing Vignola, the route takes the Sant’Antonio climb (category 3, 13.2km, 3.8%, max. 9%) and then it reaches Pavullo nel Frignano, where the intermediate sprint is set.

 

A wide and quick descent leads to the bottom of the Scoltenna River valley, where the route goes up again, to reach the Rocchetta Sandri KOM (category 4, 4.5km, 6.2%, max. 11%) and, right after, the town of Fanano, where the final climb begins.

 

The climb is quite regular; the first 9km part (Fanano-Sestola) features a gradient of 4-5%, followed by a sector of apparently flat ground (which actually runs slightly uphill) through the town centre, up to the most challenging part which leads to Passo del Lupo, with an average gradient of nearly 10% over 3.5km and peaks reaching as high as 13%. After Passo del Lupo, the road climbs more gently up to the finish line, sitting on a 130m long, 7m wide asphalted roadway, as the final 4.15km only have an average gradient of 4.5%.

 

 

 

The weather

After their many woes, the riders finally got the chance to spend a day in beautiful sunshine and it seems that spring gas finally arrived in Italy. Tomorrow should again be a sunny day, with the temperature in Sestola reaching a pleasant maximum of 17 degrees. There is a little risk that the riders will be greeted by an afternoon shower but the most likely scenario is that there will be no need for rain jackets.

 

There will be a light wind from a southwesterly direction which means that the riders will have a crosswind in the first half before turning into a headwind. On the final climb, it will be a cross-tailwind on the lower slopes but mostly a cross-headwind for the final 13km.

 

The favourites

Today's first big mountain stage was expected to provide some fireworks but apparently the favourites all had a defensive mindset - or were just unable to make a difference. That is unlikely to change in tomorrow's stage which may be hard but not tough enough to make a difference.

 

The middle section of the climb has some steep sections and here it would certainly be possible to create a selection. As the final 4km are very easy, however, it will be very hard to maintain any kind of advantage and the headwind and long straight road won't make it any easier. With so many mountains still to come, this is a day for the GC riders to avoid losing time.

 

This means that the stage has breakaway written all over it. Unless the early break contains a rider that is dangerous for the general classification, BMC will be happy to let a break ride away with the win and most of the other GC teams will do nothing to chase either. As there is not a lot for them to win in this kind of finish and they don't have an obvious winner candidate, it will be left to some of the smaller teams to bring it back together.

 

It seems that only two factors can prevent a breakaway from staying away. The finish is perfectly suited to Diego Ulissi and he would be the big favourite to win the stage if things are back together at the bottom of the final climb. This kind of ascents usually see a 20-30 riders group sprint at the end and in such circumstances Ulissi will be hard to beat.

 

This would prompt Lampre-Merida to lead the chase but as they already have two stage wins, they may decide to take it a bit easier. On the other hand, their GC captains Damiano Cunego and Przemyslaw Niemiec both lost a lot of time in today's stage and so their only remaining objectives are stage wins. Hence, it is not completely impossible that they will try to set up Ulissi again.

 

Secondly, these breakaway stages often are often pretty chaotic. Almost all teams will have the plan to get into the right break and if they fail, their sports directors will ask them to shut it down. When the early break finally takes off - probably an hour of racing - there is a chance that some teams who have missed the move will work together to bring it back. With lots of racing still to come, however, that is less likely to happen and this stage will probably be decided by a breakaway.

 

We can expect the first part of the stage to be extremely fast until a break finally takes off and the race settles into a steady rhythm. BMC will assume their position on the front of the peloton and ride a steady tempo to the finish. The escapees could easily get a rather big gap, depending on the GC position of the riders involved.

 

The main favourites won't try anything on the final climb and the most likely scenario is that Steve Morabito and Ben Hermans will be riding tempo. Some teams may be trying to make it a bit harder on the steep section to see if they can drop any of the contenders. We may see some of the GC riders that have lost a bit of time try to take some of it back by launching an attack but with a headwind to the finish, it will be a difficult mission.

 

To find favourites for the stage, we will look after riders that are both strong enough to get into the break after a very fast opening part of the race and great climbers that can finish it off in this kind of finale. As the first part of the stage is completely flat, it's a bit of a lottery to get into the right move and some of the heavier guys may be part of the group that ultimately takes off . The nature of the finale, however, whittles down the number of potential winners significantly.

 

One rider that suits the bill perfectly is Tim Wellens. The Lotto Belisol youngster has made long-distance breakaways his specialty and he spent much of his debut season in escapes in hilly races. Last year he got very close to a stage win on the big final mountain stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné by riding in an early break. Despite his youth, he seems to have a great ability to hit the right breakaway and he rides strongly both on the climbs and on the flats.

 

This year Wellens has taken a massive step up and he put in an excellent showing in the Ardennes classics where he was constantly on the attack. He has become a lot stronger over the last few months and now seems to have reached a level where he can finish it off in the biggest races.

 

He did impressively well in stage 6 when he finished 2nd behind Matthews and his great form even allowed him team to harbour some GC ambitions. Today they all came to nothing but now he has the freedom to do what he does best: go on the attack. Possessing both great climbing legs and a fast uphill sprint, he has all the skills to excel in tomorrow's stage. Furthermore, he has made the mountains jersey an objective and tomorrow could be a good day to open his account. We wouldn't be surprised if he takes his first big win on the grand tour stage.

 

Another rider that is well-suited to this stage is Enrico Battaglin. The Bardiani rider has had so much bad luck in this race as he was caught up in crashes in stage 5 and 6 that both suited him really well. However, he showed his good form yesterday when he finished seventh in a flat sprint.

 

Battaglin is here to chase stage wins and there is no doubt that he has set his sights on tomorrow's stage. The final climb should not be too tough for him and he will be virtually impossible to beat in this kind of uphill sprint. His main challenge will be to make the break but even if he doesn't, he still has a chance. If Bardiani miss the break, they may bring it back together and then he would again be one of the favourites to win.

 

As said, it is possible that the early break will get caught and if that happens, it is hard to look beyond Diego Ulissi as the favourite. Today he proved his excellent condition when he made it over the Carpegna climb with the best, despite that ascent usually being too tough for him. In the finale, he was in a class of his own and should be so again in a finish that suits him down to the ground. However, he won't be allowed to join the early break and so he needs a final sprint to take his third win in the race.

 

Androni have been very aggressive in this race and they will undoubtedly be part of tomorrow's break. Diego Rosa had hoped to do well on GC and looked really strong on the Carpegna climb where he was riding comfortable near the front of the peloton. However, he faded back on the final climb and now finds himself more than 8 minutes behind Evans on GC.

 

This will give him the freedom to go on the attack and he is usually very good at hitting the right breaks. In stages 6 and 8 he has proved that he is riding excellently at the moment and there is a big chance that he will be the best climber if he makes it into the escape.

 

Pieter Weening had hoped that he would get the chance to take the maglia rosa in the early part of the race but he lost time in the crash-marred stage 6. Hence, it is now back to the original objective for the Dutchman: to chase stage wins in the hilly stages.

 

His first big chance comes tomorrow and he will undoubtedly try to make it into the break. He is a great climber and clearly in good condition. However, he is no fast finisher and will have to get rid of his companions in the steep section to take the win.

 

Sky are here to chase stage wins and they have already come close. Dario Cataldo had originally set his sights on the GC but he lost all hopes in today's stage. He will try to make amends by going on the attack and tomorrow's stage suits him perfectly. As a great time trialist, he is well-suited to the flat part and he is both a strong climber and a fast finisher Going into the race, he was obviously in great condition and if he is not too hampered by his injuries, he is a great winner candidate.

 

Finally, we will select out jokers. Nicolas Roche had hoped to finish in the top 5 in this race but like so many others he fell out of GC contention in stage 6. Now he has set his sights on stage wins and tomorrow's stage is a good one for him. He is both a great climber and a fast finisher and the final climb suits him very well. The stage may come a bit too early after his crash but in today's stage he showed that he has already recovered well.

 

Heading into this race, Fabio Duarte seemed to be in great condition but surprisingly he lost a lot of time in today's stage. This means that he can now forget about the GC and this makes him a great winner candidate in the mountain stages. His Colombia team will now be on the attack every day and they will try to get their captain into tomorrow's move. The flat first part doesn't suit him well but as a good climber and a fast finisher, he has a great chance if he makes it into the right escape.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Tim Wellens

Other winner candidates: Enrico Battaglin, Diego Ulissi

Outsiders: Diego Rosa, Pieter Weening, Dario Cataldo

Jokers: Nicolas Roche, Fabio Duarte