The Giro d'Italia was once known as a predominantly affair but a clear strategy to internationalize the race has paid off and this year a host of established, foreign grand tour stars will head to Belfast for the start of the Italian race. Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez headline a very strong list of contenders that includes four past grand tour winners and even though the sad absence of Richie Porte will be felt, the organizers could hardly have wished a stronger line-up for the three-week race. CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses.

 

When Michele Acquarone took over the reins from Angelo Zomegnan as race director of the Giro d'Italia, he had a firm objective. He wanted to internationalize what was by many seen as a mostly Italian race in an attempt to challenge the position of the Tour de France as the world's leading bike race and the first premise for success in that regard was the attraction of more international stars to the race's line-up.

 

The effort has clearly paid off as a more balanced route design with shorter transfers, no excessive climbing and more time trialing has convinced several international stars to make the Giro their main target of the season. Already last year the reigning Tour de France champion took to the start and even though Chris Froome won't be at the start in Belfast on Friday, this year's line-up is spearheaded by the other two podium finishers from the 2013 edition of La Grande Boucle.

 

With defending champion Vincenzo Nibali focusing on the Tour de France, it may in fact be difficult for the home nation to even put a rider on the podium. Home riders like Michele Scarponi, Domenico Pozzovivo and Ivan Basso will have to beat the likes of Nairo Quintana, Joaquim Rodriguez, Cadel Evans, Daniel Martin, Rigoberto Uran and Rafal Majka to make it two Italian wins in  a row.

 

CyclingQuotes.com has taken an in-depth look at the race's favourites, assigning 5 stars to the race's biggest favourite, 4 to his two biggest rivals, 3 to three other potential winners, 2 to four of the podium contenders and 1 to 5 of the race's minor outsiders. In this article, we take a look at the 4-star riders that may be seen as the main challengers to the race's biggest favourite.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez (****)

During the early part of his career, it was not at all obvious that Joaquim Rodriguez would develop into one of the best grand tour riders in the world. Being a formidable classics rider and stage hunter in the biggest races, he was hugely inconsistent during the three-week events and was mostly unable to handle long, gradual climbs as opposed to the short, steep ramps on which he thrived.

 

A dedicated effort to develop into a rider also for the high mountains, improve his poor time trialling ability immensely and get rid of his numerous bad days has seen him step onto the podium in all three grand tours, with last year's 3rd in the Tour de France finally making the place full.

 

He had come close on a number of occasions but in 2012 he finally stepped into the world elite of grand tour riders. He had no bad day at neither the Giro nor the Vuelta and he even finished 7th in the long time trial at the Vuelta - a performance that was not even comparable to the one that had seen him lose more than 6 minutes two years earlier. While his climbing was not outstanding at the Giro, he was doubtlessly the best rider in the Vuelta mountains and only a bold move by Contador in an intermediate stage that was completely unsuited to Rodriguez' characteristics, saw the Katusha rider miss out on the win.

 

As a pure climber, Rodriguez clearly knows that he will never win the Tour de France which is often loaded with flat time trialing and so his grand tour focus has mostly been on the Giro and the Vuelta whose mountainous natures suit him down to the ground. Last year an unusually hilly Tour de France course made him skip his usual Giro-Vuelta double and make his only second appearance at the world's biggest bike race in a quest to achieve the rare feat of finishing on all three grand tour podium. He rarely fails to hit his best form for the biggest targets but he performed unusually poorly in the Pyrenees before a very strong comeback in the difficult final week allowed him to accomplish his mission when a strong ride in the final mountain stage allowed him to finish on the podium.

 

However, the grand tour victory that so narrowly eluded him two years ago, is still missing on his palmares, and this year he has changed his focus back from podium aspirations to a dedicated quest to win the Giro and/or the Vuelta. For Rodriguez, another second place has little value: this time it is all about the overall victory.

 

Knowing that he has a heavy racing burden ahead of him, Rodriguez has scaled down his spring racing significantly and he arrives at the Giro with fewer racing kilometres in his legs than ever before. For the first, he skipped both Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico and he didn't make his usual appearance in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco either. In fact his only racing between a rather heavy early-season block that ended at the Tour of Oman in late February and the Ardennes classics in late April, was his home race, the Volta a Catalunya.

 

That race, however, suggested that Rodriguez is on track for big things. With its lack of really long hard climbs, the course may have suited him well but it was an impressive performance for him to come away with the win in what is arguably the strongest field assembled for any week-long stage race this year. He not only beat his Giro rival Nairo Quintana, he also held off a resurgent Alberto Contador who had crushed the opposition in Tirreno-Adriatico less than two weeks earlier, and a - albeit underprepared - Chris Froome.

 

One of the reasons for his reduced racing schedule is that he plans to maintain top condition all the way from the Ardennes classics to the end of the Giro. For him, the classics were not just preparation races as he has made no secret of the fact that Liege-Bastogne-Liege is at the top of his list of priorities. However, he never got the chance to prove just how strong he was in those races as an unfortunate crash in the Amstel Gold Race made him unable to breathe properly in the final two races.

 

Luckily, he claims that the incident will have no impact on his Giro condition and his own statements in the days leading up to the Ardennes classics indicated that he was very confident in his form. His performance in Catalunya suggests that he is going better than ever and if he can keep up the momentum, he probably has his best ever chance of winning a grand tour in this year's Giro.

 

With 9 summit finishes, the course suits him well and even though the amount of time trialing has been increased compared to his most recent participation in 2012, the rolling parcours for the Barolo TT and the brutal mountain TT on the Monte Grappa should suit him well. In last year's Tour and the 2012 Vuelta he again underlined the fact that he has improved his TT skills massively and especially on hilly courses, he can now mix it up with the best. As a pure climber, he has always been one of the strongest in the mountain time trials and stage 19 should be an advantage more than a burden compared to most of his rivals.

 

When his excellent early-season form is not enough to elevate him to the top of the list of favourites, it is based on a number of factors. First of all, Quintana seems to be a slightly better climber on long ascents than Rodriguez. In the final week of last year's Tour, both were clearly performing at the maximum of their capabilities and even though they were very equally matched, Quintana slightly had the upper hand. Secondly, the finishing climbs of this year's Giro don't suit Rodriguez perfectly. In general, the less regular and steeper Italian climbs are tailor-made for his characteristics, this year's course has a number of finishes on very long, regular climbs. Rodriguez' has no natural ability to handle such ascents - just remember how he struggled on such a climb in Andorra at the 2010 Vuelta - and the finishes on Montecampione, Panarotta and Zoncolan could become a challenge. At the same time, the Giro organizers have not included any finish on those short, steep ramps where he is virtually unbeatable and the reduced time bonuses will also be a disadvantage for a rider that usually benefits massively from the bonifications.

 

Rodriguez is backed by fabulous team of climbers that include the likes of Daniel Moreno, an in-form Giampaolo Caruso, Alberto Losada and Eduard Vorganov and the team will be one of the strongest in the mountains. On the other hand, however, he will lose time in the team time trial and despite Luca Paolini's presence, the team is not geared to the potentially windy stages in Ireland. If things turn out badly for the Katusha leader, he could already have a significant time deficit by the time he rides his first kilometres on  Italian soil.

 

Finally, one may also question his decision to reduce the amount of racing. In fact, the only time in recent history where Rodriguez has mistimed his condition was at last year's Tour de France. That year he followed a similar idea of riding less than usual in the spring and the results in the Pyrenees clearly weren't what he wanted. It seems that Rodriguez needs a certain amount of racing to reach his best level but he may benefit from the fact that all the major climbing will take place in the final week of the race.

 

Despite those disadvantages, Rodriguez' recent history in grand tours and - more importantly - his excellent showing at the start of the season turns him into the most obvious threat to Quintana's expected dominance in the Giro mountains. If Rodriguez has the same legs as he had in Catalunya, it may not be impossible for him to rid himself of his Colombian rival and if that happens, he could finally reach that big objective of winning a grand tour - a feat that few would have expected him to achieve when he started his career as an inconsistent classics specialist.

 

Cadel Evans (****)

When Cadel Evans rolled into Paris to end the 2013 Tour de France in 39th, it was hard to imagine that the Australian would ever again enter a grand tour as a winner candidate. For the second year in a row, the he had performed below expectations in the biggest race of his season and more importantly, he was no longer his usual consistent self. With the consistency having always been his main asset, it seemed that Father Time had finally caught up with the veteran Australian.

 

It was hard not to have a feeling of déjà vu earlier year. Evans came out with all guns blazing when he put in a strong showing in his national championships and the Tour Down Under and just like one year earlier where he had performed really well in the Tour of Oman, he returned to Europe with big hopes for Tirreno-Adriatico, his first major target of the year. For the second year in a row, however, it failed completely in the Italian race and it was hard for him to hide his frustration when he abandoned the race prematurely.

 

Just like he did one year ago he has since bounced back but unlike last year he has done so with a power and consistency that makes it realistic to believe that there may still be a grand tour win in the 37-year-old legs. After all, he proved at last year's Giro d'Italia that he is still a great rider for the three-week races when he finished 3rd overall despite having had limited preparation and this year he enters the Giro in what is clearly a much better condition.

 

To get to the start of the Giro, however, Evans had to swallow a very bitter pill. After his disappointing outing at the Tour de France, he publicly expressed his hope that the BMC management would again allow him to return to La Grande Boucle in a leadership role but already in August it became clear that his wish had been refused. In future editions of the world's biggest bike race, the American team will be built around Tejay van Garderen and a reluctant Evans will miss his favourite race since 2004.

 

Being a true professional, however, Evans has changed his focus and prepared his Giro campaign with his usual meticulousness. His Tirreno performance may have instilled some fear but when he returned to competition at the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, he seemed to be back on track. On the climbs, he was not far behind the superior duo of Alberto Contador and Alejandro Valverde and only a below-par performance in the time trial saw him slip to seventh in the end.

 

What really marks him out as a potential winner of the race is his incredible ride at the Giro del Trentino. After a splendid win from his BMC team in the team time trial, he emerged as the strongest rider in the three subsequent mountain stages. Each day Domenico Pozzovivo launched strong attacks but the Italian climber failed to get rid of Evans who rode with his usual grit, determination and stubbornness.

 

In the short, steep finish on stage 3, he responded to Pozzovivo's many accelerations before launching a decisive move himself to take an emphatic solo victory that really marked his return to form. His best performance, however, came one day later in the queen stage. With Louis Meintjes and Franco Pellizotti having ridden away from the favourites, Evans found his lead under pressure and he had no domestiques left in the small group. Just like he did on the Galibier stage in the 2011 Tour de France, Evans took on the responsibility to lead the favourites in the final 5km to keep the attackers under control, and apparently his pace was so far that his rivals were unable to attack before the final sprint where Evans even managed to keep up with the best when the group split to pieces.

 

With Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez both skipping the Trentino race, it was hard to gauge Evans' performance as skeptics claimed that the best riders were missing from the start line. Two days later, however, Pozzovivo was one of the strongest riders at Liege-Bastogne-Liege where most of the world elite was gathered. This put Evans' performance into relief and led to questions about what Evans might have been able to do if he had decided to participate in La Doyenne.

 

Despite his splendid Trentino performance, it will be a tough ask for Evans to win his first Giro. Evans has always been a strong climber but he has never been able to match the very best on the slopes. In a very mountainous Giro, he finds himself up against Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez who - at least on paper - should be stronger in the many mountain stages that litter the final week. Evans has so often been just that small step below the very best that has seen him take so many places of honour.

 

The Australian's main assets are his consistency and experience. Health issues have plagued him over the last few years and this has turned things completely on its head. In fact, inconsistency has been a big problem for the Australian but as he is now back to full health, things seem to be back to normal. In last year's Giro he looked a bit like his former self when it was his consistent performances that allowed him to finish 3rd overall and with his return to a higher level, nothing suggests that he won't be there day in and day out.

 

On paper Evans is a much better time trialst than both Quintana and Rodriguez and he should be able to gain some time on stage 12. Over the last few years, however, his level in the discipline has deteriorated and this tendency goes back to the time before his health issues. It was no coincidence that it was a poor time trial that saw him drop down a few spots in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco. To win this race, he needs to make the most out of the Barolo time trial and that requires him to find back to his former level.

 

He is surrounded by a strong team that is fully devoted to its captain and even though Samuel Sanchez is clearly no longer the rider he once was, he is usually very strong in the third week of a grand tour. Steve Morabito was riding excellently in Trentino while Ben Hermans has clearly stepped up his climbing level massively. Over the past few years, BMC have disappointed a lot in team time trials but they produced a fantastic ride in Trentino. Many of the riders from that race will be on the start ramp in Belfast as well and Evans will hope to start the race with a small advantage compared to Rodriguez and maybe also Quintana.

 

Things have to go right for Evans to take the second grand tour victory of his career but it would be unwise to rule out the resurgent Australian. Few would have expected him to finish on the podium three years ago and Evans has a history of defying the odds. With an apparent return to form, the Australian definitely has a chance to win this race and a victory would be a perfect response to the BMC management that refused him the chance to lead the team at the Tour de France.