The Giro d'Italia was once known as a predominantly affair but a clear strategy to internationalize the race has paid off and this year a host of established, foreign grand tour stars will head to Belfast for the start of the Italian race. Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez headline a very strong list of contenders that includes four past grand tour winners and even though the sad absence of Richie Porte will be felt, the organizers could hardly have wished a stronger line-up for the three-week race. CyclingQuotes.com takes a thorough look at this year's favourites and outsiders and finds out all about their strengths and weaknesses.

 

When Michele Acquarone took over the reins from Angelo Zomegnan as race director of the Giro d'Italia, he had a firm objective. He wanted to internationalize what was by many seen as a mostly Italian race in an attempt to challenge the position of the Tour de France as the world's leading bike race and the first premise for success in that regard was the attraction of more international stars to the race's line-up.

 

The effort has clearly paid off as a more balanced route design with shorter transfers, no excessive climbing and more time trialing has convinced several international stars to make the Giro their main target of the season. Already last year the reigning Tour de France champion took to the start and even though Chris Froome won't be at the start in Belfast on Friday, this year's line-up is spearheaded by the other two podium finishers from the 2013 edition of La Grande Boucle.

 

With defending champion Vincenzo Nibali focusing on the Tour de France, it may in fact be difficult for the home nation to even put a rider on the podium. Home riders like Michele Scarponi, Domenico Pozzovivo and Ivan Basso will have to beat the likes of Nairo Quintana, Joaquim Rodriguez, Cadel Evans, Daniel Martin, Rigoberto Uran and Rafal Majka to make it two Italian wins in  a row.

 

CyclingQuotes.com has taken an in-depth look at the race's favourites, assigning 5 stars to the race's biggest favourite, 4 to his two biggest rivals, 3 to three other potential winners, 2 to four of the podium contenders and 1 to 5 of the race's minor outsiders. In this article, we take a look at the 3-star favourites that may be seen as genuine winner candidates.

 

Michele Scarponi (***)

It has been three difficult years for Michele Scarponi since he was the closest challenger to Alberto Contador during the Spaniard's dominant ride at the 2011 Giro d'Italia - a performance that later made him a grand tour winner due to Contador's subsequent disqualification. That season crowned a steady, stable upwards trend that turned him into one of the best climbers in the world, and also included overall victories in the Volta a Catalunya and the Giro del Trentino.

 

Since then the trend has changed and instead of his constant improvement, his climbing level had been on a downwards trajectory. He could only manage fourth in his attempt to defend his title in 2012 and last year he struggled a lot in most of the mountain stages and was far from the win when he rolled across the finish line in Brescia to secure another fourth place.

 

Scarponi has had to deal with a lot of off-the-bike problems due to his cooperation with banned doctor Michele Ferrari which saw him being handed a short suspension during the 2012-2013 off-season. Due to concerns from co-sponsor Merida, he was even put on inactive status by his Lampre team at the beginning of the 2013 season and only in late February, the parties reached a deal that allowed him to return to competition.

 

Those issues may have taken away a bit of attention from his racing but can't explain the strange fact that he seems to have changed as a rider. When he excelled in the 2010 and 2011 seasons, his main asset was his strength in the high mountains where he performed consistently well and laid the foundations for his great Giro performances.

 

Nowadays he seems to struggle on the longer climbs but excels on the shorter ones. In last year's Giro, he was riding exceptionally well in the first hilly part of the race, prompting Vincenzo Nibali to announce him as a big threat, but as soon as the peloton hit the mountains, he was always on the defensive. In a funny turnaround, it was his splendid performance in the long time trial - a discipline in which he has usually suffered a lot - that allowed him to finish fourth overall. At the same time, he has developed into an excellent classics rider as evidenced by his fabulous performance in last year's Liege-Bastogne-Liege at his great work for Nibali at the Worlds in Florence, again underlining his skills on the shorter climbs.

 

However, no one can deny the fact that he is still an excellent climber. If he hadn't been plagued by an unusual amount of bad luck, he would have finished in the top 10 in a series of WorldTour races in 2013 but the days when he consistently dropped his rivals seem to be over.

 

This year, however, the trend may change. After joining Astana over the winter and having been relieved from the responsibility of being the main rider of his team, Scarponi has had a very solid start to his season. In the Ruta del Sol he performed solidly and he was one of the very best in the first mountain stage of Tirreno-Adriatico that had a very star-studded line-up. An illness saw him miss out on a top result in the Criterium International but a subsequent training camp on Mount Teide allowed him to return to form in time to put in a solid ride in Trentino where he was not far off the level of Cadel Evans and Domenico Pozzovivo.

 

The results certainly haven't been on par with the ones he has had earlier in his career but this year he has made a deliberate choice to start a bit slower. After leading Astana in the Giro, he will head to the Tour de France where he is expected to be a key domestique for Vincenzo Nibali and with such a heavy racing burden ahead of him, he obviously can't allow himself to be too good too early.

 

With his improved time trialing skills, Scarponi will find this year's course to his liking. If he can repeat his recent performances in Barolo, he may even take time on some of his rivals on stage 12 and he has done some excellent mountain time trials in the past. History proves that the very steep Monte Zoncolan suits him well but he may struggle a bit on the long, regular climbs to Montecampione and Panarotta.

 

Scarponi is part of what could be the dominant team in the mountains as he joins forces with youngster Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa. That trio formed a potent and dangerous combination in Trentino and can benefit from their strength in numbers to lighten up the mountain stages. As the only one to have proved consistency over three weeks, Scarponi is the clear leader of the team but if Astana play it wisely, they could benefit from their strength in numbers.

 

Due to his recent struggles, Scarponi is no longer speaking about the overall victory but has set his sights on the podium. However, the Astana captain is one of the select few who has the top level to realistically challenge Quintana and Rodriguez. Things indicate that he may be stronger than he has been over the past few years but he still hasn't shown those splendid legs he had in 2011. Until he has proven that he is not yet back at his best level, however, it would be a wise decision by his rivals to keep a watchful eye on the Astana leader.

 

Domenico Pozzovivo (***)

When Domenico Pozzovivo finished 9th in the 2008 Giro d'Italia at just 25 years of age, lofty expectations were made for the tiny climber. Pundits started to announce him as a potential podium finisher in the grand tours but for several years it seemed that it would all come to nothing. While he continued to shine in most of the Italian races, he was a perennial disappointment in the Giro and it seemed that he couldn't handle the stress of three weeks of successive racing.

 

Things turned around in 2012 when he arrived at the Giro fresh from a dominant victory at the Giro del Trentino. It was now or never for the tiny climber if he wanted to keep his status as the grand tour leader of the Bardiani team. Finally, things came together for Pozzovivo who not only finished 8th overall but also took a magnificent win in the stage to Lago Laceno.

 

Instead of moving down the internal Bardiani hierarchy, Pozzovivo suddenly found himself with a chance to join the WorldTour. With Ag2r desperately looking for points - which Pozzovivo possessed in abundance - he was picked up by the French team to lead the line in the Giro and the Vuelta. Immediately, e proved himself fully ready for the highest level but his Giro campaign was derailed by broken ribs sustained in a crash at the Giro del Trentino, with the injury severely hampering his preparations. He even crashed in the three-week race itself but battled through the pain to take 10th overall.

 

Later in the year he proved how far he has come as a grand tour rider when he rode a very consistent Vuelta to finish 6th overall. In fact he would have made it into the top 5 if it hadn't been for a stupid lack of attention in a windy stage where he lost more than a minute to Nicolas Roche who would eventually finish 5th.

 

This year it seems that he has stepped up his level a further notch. In Roma Maxima he did what only very few have been able to do this year when he dropped Alejandro Valverde on a climb and he has finished in the top 10 in both Tirreno and Catalunya despite none of these races suiting him too well. He was back in his right terrain in Trentino where he - as usual - finished among the best, taking second behind a very strong Cadel Evans.

 

However, it was his performance in Liege-Bastogne-Liege that really proved how far he has come. In his first participation in the classic, he emerged as one of the strongest riders when he first joined Julian Arredondo in an attack on the Cote de la Roche-aux-Faucons and when he was caught 10km later, he still had enough left to join Giampaolo Caruso in the move that seemed to be the race-winning one. He ultimately crossed the line in 5th and the performance shows that he is now a very dangerous podium contender.

 

Pozzovivo is obviously a pure climber but surprisingly he has always struggled a bit on the very long, regular climbs. He will find many of those ascents in the final week of the race and this could be a significant disadvantage. On the other hand, he excels on very steep ascents as he proved when he won on the Punta Veleno in the 2012 Giro del Trentino, and he will find the Zoncolan finish to his liking.

 

Looking at his tiny stature, one would expect Pozzovivo to be a terrible time trialist but he actually does pretty well in the race against the clock. On a flat course, he is obviously disadvantaged but if the route has just a few hills, no one should underestimate him. Last year he was a surprising 3rd behind Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin in the Vuelta time trial and he won't necessarily lose time in the Barolo time trial. As a pure climber, he should do well in the Monte Grappa TT but the climb may be a bit too long to suit him perfectly.

 

Unlike last year, Pozzovivo enters the race with a perfect build-up and in last year's Vuelta he proved how far he has come as a grand tour rider. This year he is riding better than ever before and with a mountainous course with lots of steep climbs offering the perfect battleground, he may finalize live up to those lofty expectations created in 2008 by stepping onto the podium in Trieste.

 

Daniel Martin (***)

Daniel Martin enters this year's Giro d'Italia as the great dark horse. Over the last year, the Garmin rider has stepped up his level massively and his performance in the last two editions of Liege-Bastogne-Liege and last year's Il Lombardia prove that he is now one the world's leading contenders for the hilly classics.

 

As a grand tour contender, however, he is almost a completely blank page. He has already done six three-week races but so far he has rarely had a focus on the overall standings. Instead, he has always underlined his approach of treating the races as 21 consecutive one-day classics and with stage wins in both the Vuelta and the Tour, he has proved that this way of handling the races has suited him well.

 

He has been in GC contention in a grand tour twice: in the 2011 Vuelta where he finished 13th overall despite his day-to-day approach, and at last year's Tour de France where illness in the final week probably denied him a spot in the top 10. He had more bad luck at last year's Vuelta when he crashed out of the race after getting the tour off to a solid start.

 

For the first time, Martin will start a grand tour with a clear focus on the overall standings when he rolls down the start ramp in Belfast. This time there will be no day-to-day approach. The goal is to finish as high as possible in the overall standings.

 

Of course it was the Irish start that prompted Martin to start the Giro and he has made the Italian grand tour his big target. For the first time ever, he has prepared himself for a race by training at altitude and he even decided to make the Ardennes classics less of a focus to be fully ready for the Giro, despite being the defending Liege champion.

 

Nonetheless, he performed excellently in Belgium last month when he took second in Fleche Wallonne and he would maybe have made it two in a row in Liege if he hadn't gone down in the final turn. Despite the initial disappointment, those two performances will have boosted his confidence significantly and as he still claims to have room for improvement, there may be more to come from the Irishman.

 

However, his lack of grand tour experience makes him more of a dark horse than a race favourite. He openly admits that he still hasn't proved that he can perform regularly with the very best over three weeks of racing and this makes his performance very uncertain.

 

At the same time, he has mostly shined in one-day races and on shorter climbs where he can make use of his explosive climbing skills while he has had a harder time in the high mountains. This year's Giro will obviously be decided in the final week which is loaded with long, regular climbs and it is another question how Martin will handle those strains. Furthermore, he is a very poor time trialist and he will find himself with a lot of time to make up after stage 12 to Barolo.

 

Nonetheless, Martin's splendid performances over the last two years make him one of the riders that can realistically target the overall victory. There's a big risk that he can't live up to expectations and will finish far down the rankings but this assessment is about winning potential, not top 10 chances. Martin enters the race as an almost blank piece of paper and an exciting dark horse and it is now time for him to find out whether he has the potential to be a grand tour rider or if he should stay focused on a career as one of the world's leading one-day riders.