The Italian cycling season kicks off on Sunday with its traditional opening event, the GP Costa degli Etruschi. However, the curtain raiser is no longer the sprint festival it once was. Instead, the introduction of tough climbs in the finale means that the balance has been tipped and nowadays the race is one for the fast finishers who can handle a considerable amount of climbing.

For more than a decade, it had become a tradition that the Italian cycling season always kicked off with a big bunch sprint in Donoratico on the first Sunday in February. The GP Costa degli Etruschi had developed into a big chance for the best Italian sprinters to get an early victory before the classics riders took over in the Italian one-day scene. Being the leading Italian sprinter, Alessandro Petacchi dominated the race by winning it six times in a row from 2005 to 2010.

Like most other Italian races, however, the event suffered from financial difficulties that forced the organizers to initially cancel the 2013 edition. After the GS Emilia took over the reins to save the race, they managed to put it on in late September as a preparation race for the Worlds in Florence. To make it more suitable for that purpose, the course was made significantly hillier and it was Michele Scarponi who broke the dominance of the sprinters in Donoratico.

Last year the race was back at its usual February date but the organizers decided not to return to sprint format. Instead, they designed another hilly course that took the riders over several climbs in the finale before they descended to a flat finale. This made it very similar to a lot of other Italian one-day races which are dominated by fast riders who can overcome the hard climbs but Simone Ponzi managed to escape in the finale and win his first race in Neri Sottoli colours. Apparently, they liked the format as the days when the pure sprinters will rule on the opening day of the Italian cycling season won’t return in 2015.

The course

The organizers have decided not to use the exact same course for the 2015 edition of the race as they did in 2014. The 190.6km course starts on the Tyrrhenian coast in San Vincenzo and ends a little further up the coast in Donoratico. It can be split into four parts, with the final one being the hardest and crucial one.

The first part consists of a 58.5km loop that takes the riders into the area south of the starting city, back to the coast and up along the seafront to the finish in Donoratico. This part is mostly flat but contains the Campiglia Marittima climb at the 41.5km mark.

Having reached Donoratico, the riders will do three laps of a 24.3km circuit that is not too hard. There is a small climb in the early part but it should do little to trouble the sprinters. Back in Donoratico, the riders will do two laps of a 10.3km circuit that includes the small San Giusto climb.

The finale starts with 38.6km to go when the riders have returned to Donoratico again. Now they will tackle two laps of a much harder 19.3km finishing circuit. It includes the Torre Segalari climb which is 2.9km long and has an average gradient of 5.1%. The final passage comes just 9.1km from the finish and from there it is a fast descent and 2.5km of flat roads that lead to the finish along the coast.

The favourites

With the new format, the race is very similar to a lot of other Italian one-day race and it is no wonder that the same riders usually dominate most of the events in one of cycling’s main countries. This means that this race will be the first big test between the riders that are set to clash throughout most of the season and it will give a first indication of their internal hierarchy. Furthermore, it is the start of the prestigious Coppa Italia competition which is very important for Bardiani, Neri Sottoli, Androni and Vini Fantini as the winner is guaranteed a spot in the 2016 Giro d’Italia.

At this time of the year, the weather has a big impact on the racing but at the moment, it seems that the riders will have nice conditions for their battle. Bright sunshine and an 8-degree temperature are expected, with a light wind coming from a northwesterly direction. The latter fact is very important as it means the riders will mainly have a headwind on the final descent and a crosswind on the climb.

Torre Segalari is so tough that the pure sprinters won’t have a chance and the main question will be which riders will be able to hang onto the peloton as they go up the steep slopes. Several teams have a clear interest in making the race as hard as possible and this means that the race should be rather selective.

We are guaranteed to see a number of attacks on the final climb and a small group of riders will probably go clear over the top. The final part of the race is likely to develop into a fierce pursuit between a reduced peloton and a small group of attackers and both groups have a chance to prevail. Last year Ponzi was part of the breakaway and with 3km to go, he escaped on his own and unlike his former companions he managed to hold off the peloton before his teammate Mauro Finetto made it a 1-2 for YellowFluo.

The most likely outcome is a sprint from a reduced bunch. First of all, it takes a good level of cooperation in the front group to keep the peloton at bay and it is hard for riders from several teams to work sufficiently together. Secondly, a very strong Bardiani team will be doing their utmost to set up a sprint finish for Sonny Colbrelli and this means that there should be plenty of firepower in the chase. Finally, the headwind will make it even harder for the attackers to stay away.

It is very hard to look beyond Colbrelli as the big favourite. 2014 turned into a breakthrough year for the versatile Italian who was a perennial top 5 finisher until he finally broke the drought at the Tour de Slovenie. In the second half of the year, he was unstoppable and his many wins in Italian one-day races earned him the leadership in the Italian team for the Worlds where he finished 13th.

Colbrelli hasn’t raced yet in 2015 but last year he started his season really strongly at the Etoile de Besseges and there is a big chance that he will again come out with all guns blazing. He should be able to survive the climbing in this race and last year he proved that he is currently the fastest Italian in a sprint from a small group.

However, he may face tough opposition from another young, fast Italian. Last year Niccolo Bonifazio proved that he has the skills to become a future top sprinter and he even won the Coppa Agostoni which is very similar to the GP Costa degli Etruschi. This proves that the kid can both sprint and climb and he is in very good condition at the start of the year. In the Tour Down Under he sprinted really well and showed his good climbing legs when he was 8th in the uphill sprint in Stirling. On paper, he is faster than Colbrelli but he isn’t climbing as well as the Bardiani leader. Bardiani will probably try to make the race hard to get rid of Bonifazio but if the Lampre-Merida sprinter makes the selection he will be the obvious favourite.

After a single year at the WorldTour level with Cannondale, Oscar Gatto is back in a pro continental team after he has signed a contract with Androni-Venezuela. On paper this race suits him really well as he can both climb and sprint. He made his debut in the Tour de San Luis where he went down in a crash but showed his speed by sprinting into the top 10 on the opening stage. He is building conditions for the classics and if he is sprinting like he did in last year’s Tour of Austria, he will be a danger man.

Last year’s winner Simone Ponzi could easily make it two in a row. The Southeast rider started 2014 really strongly but never found his best legs in the second half. At his best, however, he is both a very good climber and a very fast sprinter, meaning that he can both win from a sprint and from a small breakaway. He hasn’t raced yet but last year he started strongly and this makes him one to watch.

The same can be said of his teammate Mauro Finetto who has many of the same characteristics. He may not be quite as fast as Ponzi but he is a better climber. He didn’t impress when he rode in San Luis but he seemed to get better towards the end and there is a solid chance that he will be one of the best on the climb. If he arrives at the finish with a small group, he will be a genuine winner candidate. The third card in the Southeast team is new signing Francesco Gavazzi who is also very similar to Ponzi and Finetto. The former Astana rider excels in sprints after hard races and the main issue for the team will be to find out who to support.

Gatto is not the only fast rider in the Androni team. Davide Appollonio has stepped down to pro continental level after a few bad years at Ag2r and he will be keen to prove his worth right from the beginning. On paper, he is one of the fastest riders in this race and he is also a very strong climber. His condition is very uncertain though and there is no guarantee that he will make it over the climbs with the best. Davide Vigano is another fast rider who should be able to make it over the climbs and his speed will make him a potential winner.

The race also includes fast riders like Manuel Belletti, Daniele Colli, Russell Downing, Eduard Grosu, Ivan Balykin, Roman Maikin and Alessandro Petacchi (who is suffering from bronchitis) but most of them will have a harder time making it over the climbs while Petacchi may decide to ride in service of his teammates. If a small group escapes on the final climb, it may be a good idea to look out for Fabian Wegmann, Damiano Cunego, Valerio Conti, Fabio Duarte, Rodolfo Torres, Jose Serpa, Francesco Bongiorno and Edoardo Zardini, with the former four being pretty fast in a sprint.

***** Sonny Colbrelli

**** Niccolo Bonifazio, Oscar Gatto

*** Simone Ponzi, Francesco Gavazzi, Davide Appollonio, Davide Vigano, Mauro Finetto

** Manuel Belletti, Daniele Colli, Alessandro Petacchi, Russell Downing, Fabian Wegmann, Damiano Cunego

* Valerio Conti, Fabio Duarte, Fabio Taborre, Gianfranco Zilioli, Jose Serpa, Antonino Parrinello, Francesco Bongiorno, Edoardo Zardini, Edurard Grosu, Elia Favilli, Rodolfo Torres, Ivan Balykin, Roman Maikin