This weekend the preparation for the world championships reaches its climax with the two Canadian WorldTour races Grand Cycliste de Quebec and Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal. Held on hilly courses over distances of more than 200km, the races and their circuit format offer the perfect opportunity to test the condition a few weeks prior to the battle for the rainbow jersey. With a hilly course in Ponferrada being the scene for the World Championships, this is again true for this year's 4th edition of the races and they have attracted a star-studded line-up of classics specialists that are eager to gauge themselves against some of their biggest rivals for the battle in Spain.

 

For a number of years, it almost appeared as being a certainty that the first North American race on the WorldTour would be the ever-growing and ambitious Tour of California. With UCI eager to globalize the sport and expand the pinnacle calendar to cover races on most continents, it would just be a question of time before the American stage race would put North America on the biggest scene.

 

However, the Californian race never got the honour of becoming the first event on the continent to join the exclusive club of WorldTour races. Canadian race promoter Serge Arsenault who has a long history of organizing bike races, planned to put Canada in the cycling spotlight by organizing two WorldTour one-day races and in 2009 quickly reached an agreement with the UCI that awarded his races in Quebec and Montreal 5-year licenses as WorldTour events. Despite several European races' year-long request to get onto the biggest calendar, Arsenault's brand-new project got immediate recognition, UCI being eager to spread their WorldTour calendar to a third continent as fast as possible.

 

The inaugural events were held in 2010 and didn't get overly much attention. For many teams, the long travel to North America was a hard burden at a time when most riders are on their knees and just looking forward to an off-season rest.

 

That has since changed and the races now have an important, well-deserved and well-timed place on the calendar. Being well-organized one-day races with a distance of more than 200km, their circuit race formats have turned them into the best possible preparation for the World Championships for the riders that aren't racing the Vuelta a Espana. Having been set up as "mini World Championships", the contenders for the Worlds couldn't have wished a better block of racing two weeks prior to the big event and in recent editions, the organizers have attracted a star-studded line-up that surpasses the one seen at many European WorldTour races.

 

The main disadvantage is of course the long travel to North America. With the Tour of Utah and the USA Pro Challenge being held in the USA in August and the brand-new Tour of Alberta taking place on Canadian soil one week prior to the one-day events, it is, however, now possible to build a solid block of racing consisting entirely of North American races and riders can now make prolonged stays on the other side of the Atlantic to prepare for the world championships. Last year riders like Chris Froome, Richie Porte and Peter Sagan did that when they have combined high-altitude racing in Colorado with Worlds-like racing in Quebec and Montreal to prepare for the major autumn objective but this year that strategy has not had the same appeal.

 

The one-day races have remained popular though and it's hard to find a genuine Worlds contender that is not riding either the Vuelta or in Canada. Held on hilly circuits in the cities of Quebec and Montreal, they are ones for the riders that excel in the Ardennes classics. With this year's course in Ponferrada being pretty hard, no one could wish any better preparation than the Canadian dress rehearsals.

 

The races fit perfectly into the anatomy of the second half of the season which is loaded with one-day races. It all kicks off with the Vattenfall Cyclassics and from there the racing just gets tougher and tougher. While the Hamburg race is one for the sprinters, the GP de Plouay suits both classics specialists and fast riders. The Canadian WorldTour races are even tougher and here the sprinters have a very hard time. Instead, the races are for the puncheurs and Ardennes specialists and in Montreal, the climbers may even have a chance to shine.

 

On paper, the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec is the easier of the two as the climbs on the 12.6km circuit are gentler than the ones used for the Montreal race. On the other hand, the finish is tougher in Quebec as the final 1.5km are all uphill. With Thomas Voeckler, Philippe Gilbert, Simon Gerrans and Robert Gesink being the previous winners, it is evident that the race suits the puncheurs and the Ardennes specialists.

 

This year the course has been modified as the circuit has been made a bit longer by adding a long, flat section. As this means that there will be fewer laps, the two main climbs will only be done 11 times compared to the 18 passages that have made the first editions hard. This will definitely change the dynamic of the race and make things less tough but the difficult finale is unchanged

 

Last year Robert Gesink took a surprise victory in a hectic finale when the Dutch climber showed unusual sprinting skills. A small group with Peter Sagan had got clear on the final climb and while everyone expected, the Slovakian to win the race, the Cannondale captain suddenly blew up and instead Gesink powered clear to win the uphill sprint ahead of Arthur Vichot and Greg Van Avermaet. As Gesink is currently riding the Vuelta, he won’t be back to defend his title but he Vichot and Van Avermaet have both shown great form and will be among the favourites to win the race.

 

The course

It’s very rare for a WorldTour race to be held entirely as a circuit race and that is what makes the Canadian WorldTour races special. Among the races, only the GP Ouest France-Plouay has a similar format but it is exactly this nature that makes them attractive for the Worlds contenders. Furthermore, their hilly nature makes them comparable to a typical Worlds course and this adds further value to the races.

 

In previous years, the race has taken place over 18 laps on a 12.6km circuit but this year a noticeable change has been made. As said, the circuit has been extended from 12.6km to 18.1km by adding a long, flat section at the midpoint. This means that the number of laps has been reduced from 18 to 11 and even though the two main climbs and the hard finale remain unchanged, it will make the race significantly easier.

 

With 11 laps of an 18.1km circuit, the race has a total length of 199.1km makes it a tough race but far shorter than the battle for the rainbow jersey. The circuit  has three small climbs and the long gradual drag to the finish line on Grande-Allée Ouest.

 

The race starts at 91m above sea level on the outskirts of the Parc des Champs-de Bataille in Quebec. The first kilometre is slightly ascending as the riders take two sharp left-hand turns to enter the park. The roads are slightly descending when the peloton takes a sharp right-hand corner that leads them onto a rolling road that traverses the park. At the 3.5km mark, the riders leave the park as they take a left-hand turn to get back onto the Grande-Allee Ouest.

 

This is where the change has been made. Instead, of turning left to head down a descent and travel along flat roads towards the difficult finale, the riders will continue along the flat Grande-Allee Ouest for a little longer. Just before the 6km mark, they turn left and a little later, they hit the descent that takes them down to sea level and a few turns.

 

They now hit the flat, twisting coastal road that runs alongside the park and after a little more than 10km of racing, they hit the original circuit. From here, the circuit is unchanged. Just after the 14km mark, they make a couple of turns that lead them onto the day's first climb Cote de la Montagne (375m, 10%) that brings the riders up to 42m of altitude in just 375m. The ascent is followed by an immediate descent and at the 15km mark, the riders are almost back at sea level. While the riders tackle two left-hand corners, they head up the Cote de la Potasse (420m, 9%) that sits at 47m of altitude. An almost unnoticeable descent leads to the bottom of the short Montee de la Fabrique (190m, 7%) whose top is at 47m of altitude. This section is fairly technical with several corners. 100m of flat roads lead to the long gradual incline to the finish in 91m of altitude. Two sharp corners will bring the riders onto the finishing straight which is around 900m long and all uphill. The final kilometre has an average gradient of 4%.

 

The only really steep climb is the Cote de la Montagne but it is rather short and it is the accumulated fatigue more than the climbing itself that makes the difference. Unlike in the Montreal race, the strongest sprinters may have a chance to make a result on this course but the gradual incline to the finish clearly favours the Ardennes specialists and the puncheurs.

 

The racing is usually extremely aggressive and the race very difficult to control. It usually takes some time for the early break to be established and from there, the race follows the traditional scenario with an organized chase where the stronger teams gradually increase the pressure.

 

However, attacks have a good chance of being successful in this race and so new offensives are often launched from afar. The final 3-4 laps are usually a festival of attacks where groups are being formed, reeled in and new established. The teams of the favourites try to keep things under control and the fierce pace makes it a gradual elimination race.

 

In the first two editions of the race, small groups got clear on the penultimate passage of the climb and were left to fight it out in a hectic finale. In 2012 a bigger 40-rider group remained in contention when they entered the final kilometres. This makes the races very hard to control as few riders have any support riders left in the hectic finales and so one of the numerous attacks on the final lap could to be successful. That's what happened in 2012 when Simon Gerrans and Great Van Avermaet benefited from Peter Sagan's lack of teammates and that's what happened in 2010 when Voeckler made a well-timed attack to deny Edvald Boasson Hagen the win. In 2011, Gilbert managed to control the final 10-rider group before unleashing his immense power on the final uphill straight to the line. Last year a small group escaped on the final climbs and all subsequent attacks were neutralized before the group sprinted for the win.

 

In this kind of aggressive and uncontrollable final, power, tactical ingenuity, team support and luck are all of importance. You need to be strong to get to the finale but the strongest rider doesn't always win the race.

 

 

The weather

Thursday will be a rainy day in Quebec but luckily things will be better on Friday. The riders are likely to do the race in dry conditions, with a mix of clouds and sunshine. The temperature will reach a maximum of just 16 degrees, and as usual the Canadian races won't be a hot affair.

 

There will be a modeate wind from a northwesterly direction. This means that the riders will first have a cross-headwind and then a cross-tailwind as they head back towards the finish. There will be a headwind on the first two climbs and a tailwind on the third one. On the finishing straight, there will be a cross-headwind. In general, the wind will make it harder to create a selection in the finale.

 

The favourites

Just as the riders had started to understand the nature of the GP de Quebec, the organizers have made a key change to the course that may have a significant impact on the racing. The results of the previous editions have clearly indicated that this is a race for punchy Ardennes specialists. In some editions, the selection has been made on the penultimate lap but it has mostly come down to the final climbs on the final lap.

 

It will be interesting to see how the new course will change the dynamics. The longer circuit with more flats means that there is more time to recover between the three climbs and the uphill drag to the line that all come in quick succession near the finish. Furthermore, the number of laps means that the total number of climbs has been significantly reduced, meaning that the overall race will become less hard.

 

This will open the door for more riders and now strong sprinters may even have a chance. In Montreal, the main climb is so long that it’s more a race for climbers and true Ardennes specialists but in Quebec, the short hills make it more comparable to a Flemish classic. A lot more riders can survive these short, steep ascents and with fewer passages, it will become less of race of attrition.

 

On the other hand, the climbs all come in the finale and this means that the race is probably still a bit too hard for the heavier guys. In the final few kilometres, there is no time to recover and get back into position for the uphill sprint. Hence, the race will probably still be one for the punchy Ardennes specialists but a bigger group is likely to arrive at the bottom of the climbs for the final time.

 

The longer flat section means that the main favourites are likely to save it all for the final lap. However, the easier race also means that lots of teams have an interest in making the race hard and we will probably see some pretty strong attacks in the final 3 laps. Teams like BMC, Orica-GreenEDGE, Ag2r and Lampre-Merida have a clear interest in putting their rivals under pressure and they all have some significant firepower to use. It would be no surprise to see riders like Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, Daryl Impey, Jens Keukeleire, Chris Horner, Ben Hermans and Tejay van Garderen attack from afar in an attempt to put the other teams on the defensive and the final laps will probably be pretty animated.

 

Nonetheless, the race is likely to be firmly controlled and it will probably come down to the final climbs where the favourites will make their moves. The selection will definitely not be as it has been in past editions and so it may be easier to control the situation after the first climbs. Of course there is a chance that a rider may copy Voeckler’s feat, exploit the lack of organization after the first climbs and make a brave solo move but the most likely scenario is an uphill sprint from a small group or a reduced peloton.

 

If that’s the case, Simon Gerrans is the man to beat. The Australian is one of the best classics riders in the world and has repeatedly proved that he knows how to step up in the biggest races. At the moment, he is building condition for the World Championships where he is expected to lead the Australian team and when he has a goal, he rarely mistimes his condition.

 

He abandoned the Tour de France due to injuries sustained in a crash on the opening day but returned to training at an altitude training camp. Back in competition in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, he surprised himself by sprinting to third in a race that is really too easy for the versatile Australian. Two weeks ago he did the GP de Plouay where he looked strong on the final climb but made a wrong tactical decision by not joining the attacks, saving everything for a sprint finish.

 

Gerrans is a past winner of this race and is very hard to beat in this kind of uphill sprint that is not too steep. The finish is actually comparable to the one known from Liege-Bastogne-Liege – even though that race is of course a lot harder – and in April he proved how strong he is in such a finale when he beat Alejandro Valverde in a sprint.

 

Gerrans is supported by what is probably the strongest team in the race, and Orica-GreenEDGE have lots of cards to play. Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, Simon Yates, Jens Keukeleire and Daryl Impey can all join the moves ad make the race hard while Gerrans will save it all for an uphill sprint. Furthermore, the strong team will play a significant role in the finale where attacks may be launched after the first few climbs. A rider like Weening who played a key role in Liege and showed good condition in Alberta, will be instrumental in keeping things together for an uphill sprint. Gerrans knows how to win in Quebec and we our money on a repeat win for the Australian.

 

His biggest rival is probably Greg Van Avermaet. The Belgian has been riding outstandingly all season and doesn’t show any signs of fatigue yet. In the Tour de France, he climbed better than ever before and in the Eneco Tour, he finally took a first season win in the hard stage in the Flemish Ardennes. Since then he has been riding the classics and he was clearly one of the strongest riders in Hamburg and Plouay.

 

Van Avermaet finished third in this race in 2013 and was second when Gerrans last won in 2012. Since then he has become a lot stronger and he is perfectly suited to these short, sharp ascents. He is very fast in an uphill sprint and even though he may usually not be able to match Gerrans, things may change at the end of a hard race.

 

Like Gerrans, Van Avermaet is surrounded by a formidable team and he can count on in-form riders like Tejay van Garderen and Ben Hermans to make the race hard. His main challenge will be to stay calm and save everything for the sprint. While Gerrans is usually very defensive, Van Avermaet is often spending a bit too much energy too early. If he wants to beat Gerrans in a sprint, he needs to be at 100% and so it would be a good choice to rely on his team to cover the moves in the finale.

 

Another rider who is very strong in an uphill sprint is Tony Gallopin. For some reason, the Frenchman has never really excelled in this race but as he proved in the Tour de France, he has taken a massive step up. Nowadays, he is one of the very strongest riders in this terrain and even though he would have preferred the race to be harder, he is an obvious winner candidate.

 

He hasn’t done a lot of racing since the Tour but showed good condition when he was instrumental in setting André Greipel up for a repeat win in the Brussels Cycling Classic. One day later he supported Jonas Vangenechten in his win at the GP de Fourmies, and Lotto Belisol have done nothing to hide that he is in great form.

 

The Belgian team have several cards to play, with Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens both likely to ride aggressively. Gallopin will save it all for a sprint finish where he will be up against the likes of Gerrans and Van Avermaet. It will be hard to beat those riders but as he proved in the Tour de France, Gallopin is on an upwards trajectory and there is no reason to believe that he can’t win these races in the future.

 

For Arthur Vichot, 2014 has been a horrible year. Everything started out well when he won a stage and finished on the podium in Paris-Nice but since then injuries and illness have plagued him. Finally, he seems to have returned to form in time for the World Championships and the late-season classics that suit him well.

 

Vichot rode strongly in the Tour de Limousin but his greatest performance came in the GP de Plouay. The former French champion was one of the strongest on the final climbs and quickly joined the right move in the finale. In the sprint for the small 7-rider group, he was forced to brake several times but still managed to take third.

 

This indicates that Vichot is close to 100% and he is very strong in this kind of terrain. Last year he sprinted to second and there is no reason to believe that he can’t do better than that. On paper, he may not be as fast as Gerrans but in Plouay he looked more comfortable on the climbs than the Australian champion. In this kind of sprint, it is more about freshness and here Vichot may have the upper hand.

 

World Champion Rui Costa is a dark horse as he has only done very little racing since he was forced out of the Tour de France. In fact, he has only been riding in Plouay where he was up there on the final climb but didn’t respond to the attacks. However, he follows his usual post-Tour schedule which usually sees him arrive in Canada in good condition and history shows that he is always competitive in these races.

 

In fact, he has finished 11th, 3rd and 5th in his three participations and so the race obviously suits him. On paper, the harder Montreal race which he has won in the past, is better for him and the new, easier course in Quebec is a clear disadvantage. However, he is still pretty strong in an uphill sprint and should be able to go up against the likes of Gerrans and Van Avermaet.

 

However, those riders are clearly faster than Costa and to win the race, he will probably have to ride aggressively. The finale is usually very hard to control and Costa could be the one to benefit.

 

Enrico Gasparotto is mostly overlooked in the classics but that is a huge mistake. The Italian is a past winner of the Amstel Gold Race, has finished on the podium in Liege and last year he climbed excellently in the final part of the season, crowning his performances with a top 10 in Il Lombardia.

 

This year he rode very strongly in Hamburg and Plouay where he was part of the attacks and even though he failed to come away with a result, it showed that his condition is good. The harder Canadian races suit him a lot better and as a past winner in the Cauberg sprint at Amstel, he is obviously very strong in an uphill sprint.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step field one of the strongest teams with lots of cards to play. The race probably comes a bit too early for Zdenek Stybar and while Julian Alaphilippe and Jan Bakelants will ride aggressively, Gianni Meersman will be saved for the sprint. The Belgian has been riding strongly in recent races as he won the Tour de Wallonie overall and won two stages in the Tour de l’Ain. Two weeks ago he was fourth in the peloton’s sprint in Plouay.

 

The race in Montreal is probably too hard for Meersman and so this race is his best chance. Compared to the likes of Gerrans and Van Avermaet, he will be favoured by the easier course but the finale may still be a bit too hard for him to go up against the real Ardennes specialists. If the sprint had been flat, he would have been an obvious favourite but now he is more of an outsider. However, he has won a tough uphill sprint in the Paris-Nice a few years ago and it would be unwise to rule out the in-form Belgian.

 

Cyril Gautier has been known as a perennial attacker who is rarely rewarded for his efforts. This year, however, he has become a lot stronger and has been agonizingly close to a big win. In Plouay, he instigated the decisive move and was only narrowly denied a spot on the podium by Vichot.

 

Gautier excels in this kind of terrain, has a very aggressive mindset and is fast in a sprint. He is unlikely to beat the likes of Gerrans in a direct battle but in Plouay he used his good form to attack at a time when everybody is at their limit. He will definitely be there in the finale and then it will be a good idea to keep an eye on the Europcar captain.

 

Tom Dumoulin was clearly the strongest rider in the Tour of Alberta. He crushed the opposition in the difficult prologue and he was stronger than his rivals on the climbs in the final stage. However, the race was too easy to make a difference and so he lost the race due to bonus seconds.

 

However, Dumoulin is obviously in very good form and even though he is mostly known as a time triallist, he is actually pretty explosive too. He proved that in the Eneco Tour where he excelled in terrain that is similar to Quebec’s. In 2014, he has taken a massive step up and if he attacks in the finale, he will be very hard to catch.

 

No one really knows how strong Bauke Mollema is. The Dutchman was clearly tired at the end of the Tour de France but bounced back with a good showing in San Sebastian. In the Eneco Tour, he was far below his usual level and since then he has done no racing.

 

However, he hopes to finish the season strongly and on paper, he is suited to these races. The harder race in Montreal is better for him but Quebec’s tricky finale is not too bad either. He is pretty fast in a sprint and even though there are faster riders than him, he should be up there if he is back at 100%.

 

Another rider whose form is uncertain, is Geraint Thomas. The Welshman was riding strongly in the Eneco Tour but openly admitted that he was very tired at the end of the race. Since then he has tried to recover but he has done a lot of racing this year. Hence, his condition is very uncertain.

 

However, Thomas is suited to this race as he is strong on the climbs and fast in a sprint. Of course there are faster riders like him but like Dumoulin, he may launch a strong attack in the finale. If that’s the case, the strong rouleur will be hard to catch.

 

The big question mark in the race is Alexander Kristoff. On paper, this race should be too hard for the big Norwegian but he usually comes up with a surprise. The easier course is clearly an advantage for him and the climbs are very much comparable to the one known from the Tour of Flanders where he is a strong contender.

 

Unlike the Flemish races, however, the race in Quebec has a very tough finale and there will be no room to recover in the final 5km. Kristoff already admitted that the race in Plouay had been too hard for him as he was unable to follow the best on the final climb, and so he will have a difficult time on the tougher course in Quebec. With a flat finish, he would have had a chance but this race should be a bit too much for Kristoff who is mainly here to prepare for the Worlds. However, no one can ever rule out the Norwegian who just gets stronger and stronger.

 

***** Simon Gerrans

**** Greg Van Avermaet, Tony Gallopin

*** Arthur Vichot, Rui Costa, Enrico Gasparotto,

** Gianni Meersman, Cyril Gautier, Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas, Bauke Mollema, Alexander Kristoff

* Tom-Jelte Slagter, Alex Howes, Marco Marcato, Romain Bardet, Tom Wellens, Matti Breschel, Julian Alaphilippe, Ben Hermans, Francesco Gavazzi, Jesus Herrada, Eros Capecchi, Michael Rogers, Jan Bakelants, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Davide Formolo, Jelle Vanendert, Simon Geschke, Tejay van Garderen