A great Australian cycling summer will be brought to an end later this week when a strong field takes to the start of the Jayco Herald Sun Tour. The oldest Australian stage race may no longer be the biggest cycling event in the country and may only have one WorldTour team at the start but it is an excellent and very prestigious event that allows the local riders to gain a bit of confidence and achieve some results before they head back to Europe for the most important part of the season. At the same time, it is one of the highlights for the local continental teams who will do their utmost to surprise the professional teams.

The Herald Sun Tour was once held in the European autumn and was a chance for European riders to make use of their good late-season condition to achieve some results in a field dominated by Australian riders. Unfortunately, the oldest stage race in Australia has had some problems that have seen it become taken off the UCI calendar and even get cancelled.

However, the team has now been moved to the end of the Australian summer where it is the final event in a series that also includes the National Championships, the Tour Down Under and the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race. The organizers may have hoped for a great synergy between the events but has not had a lot of success. While all the WorldTour teams were at the Tour Down Under, 8 had stayed in Australia for Evans’ farewell race but Orica-GreenEDGE will be the only team from the highest level at the Sun Tour. This makes them the big favourites to win the race but they will still be up against for pro continental teams as well as several continental teams that are loaded with in-form Australians for whom the Sun Tour is one of their season highlights.

The course

The race kicks off on Wednesday with a very short 2.1km prologue in Melbourne. With several turns, it is a pretty technical affair and it is by no means flat, with several small climbs taking the sting out of the legs. Such a short prologue usually suits the sprinters more than the powerful time triallists and we should see a mix of those two kinds of riders come to the fore.

The first stage is held on a course that is slightly descending for most of the day, meaning that it should offer the sprinters a chance to shine but the wind may come into play. Stage 2 is a lot more undulating affair, with several small climbs throughout the day but the second half is mainly flat, meaning that another bunch sprint is the likely scenario.

Stage 3 is almost completely flat but includes a big climb at the midpoint before it gradually descends down to a flat run back to the finish. With around 60km from the top of the climb to the finish, a regrouping may take place but it offers a chance for some of the stronger teams to put the sprinters under pressure and split things up on the eve of the queen stage.

The race will be decided in the queen stage which is by far the hardest of the five days of racing. The first part of the 125.4km stage is pretty lumpy but it will all come down to the finale where the riders will tackle two laps of a finishing circuit that includes the famous Arthur’s Seat climb. In total, the riders will go up the 3km climb and its 8.1% average gradient no less than 3 times and as the finish is located at the summit, a climber will definitely be the favourite to win the 2015 edition of the old race.

The favourites

With sprint finishes expected on stages 1, 2 and 3 – in some cases from a reduced peloton – the race is set to be decided in the prologue and in stage 4. In such a short prologue, the time differences will be very small and so the queen stage will be by far the most important. For the pure climbers, however, it will be important not to limit their losses one the opening day. Bonus seconds – mainly in the intermediate sprints – may also come into play as the race is usually decided by seconds and finally it will be important to have a strong team as things may split in the crosswinds at any point of the race.

Being the only WorldTour team, Orica-GreenEDGE are the overwhelming favourites to repeat last year’s performance when Simon Clarke took the overall win. The team may not have brought their A team to this event and unlike last year there is no Simon Gerrans on the roster, with the Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner still recovering from a broken collarbone. Nonetheless, the home team is by far the strongest team in the race and in addition to Caleb Ewan who is expected to go up against the likes of Matthew Goss, Tyler Farrar, Steele von Hoff and John Murphy in the sprint stages, they have the two biggest favourites to win the race overall.

Last year Clarke took the overall victory and he is again our favourite to be on the top step of the podium come Sunday. The Australian didn’t ride too strongly at the Tour Down Under but yesterday he clearly proved that he has improved his condition. Despite having been part of an early breakaway, he still managed to join the best on the final climb and even had enough left in the tank to sprint to a fine second place.

This indicates that Clarke is riding really well at the moment and he will be extremely motivated to make it two in a row. Having finished in the top 10 at the very hilly 2013 Worlds in Florence, he excels on short, steep climbs like the one to Arthur’s Seat. He is no prologue specialist but being pretty explosive, he should do well in the short opening test. As he is also very fast and may sprint for bonus seconds in the intermediate sprints, he has all the means to repeat his win.

His biggest rival may come from within his own camp. Cameron Meyer may have had a disappointing 2014 season but in 2013 he proved that he has the skills to be a contender in week-long stage races. At the Tour Down Under, he was very impressive as he led the peloton always all the way up Willunga Hill and if he still has that kind of form, he could be the strongest climber in the race.

On paper, he is a better time triallist than Clarke but for such a short, explosive effort, the defending champion may have the upper hand. In the end, it may come down to who is the best climber and even though Arthur’s seat is a bit too short to suit Meyer well, he could very well turn out to be the best.

The biggest threat to another Orica-GreenEDGE win could come from the other big Australian team. Drapac have a few cards to play but their best man should be Lachlan Norris. The former mountain biker is both a good time triallist and a very good climber, proving his skills when he finished 10th at last year’s Tour of Utah. His condition is a bit uncertain as he hasn’t raced since Nationals but he could very well have prepared specifically for this race which he has a genuine chance to win.

Lachlan Morton is one of the most gifted Australian climbers but he had a very hard time at the WorldTour level with Garmin. He only showed glimpses of his great potential when he shone in the 2013 Tour of Utah and USA Pro Challenge. Now he has stepped down to continental level with the American Jelly Belly team as he wants to enjoy cycling again. Apparently, that has served him well as he was strong at Nationals. Riding for the national team, he definitely has the climbing skills to win the race.

Another local rider who could pose a threat is Robert Power who is destined to become the next big Australian climber. Last year he finished second in the Tour de l’Avenir to prove his enormous potential but he had a disappointing outing at the Tour Down Under. Yesterday he showed improvement with a solid showing in the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race and if he can continue his upward trend, he has the climbing skills to win.

On paper, Franco Pellizotti is the best climber in the race but the Italian is rarely very good at this time of the year. In the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race, he made the initial selection but was dropped on the final climb. This indicates that he is unlikely to be in contention for the win but it could be a mistake to rule out the wily Italian. The same can be said for Luca Euser who is another good climber who is unlikely to be in his best condition.

Serge Pauwels will be eager to get his career at MTN-Qhubeka off to a good start and he should do well on the Arthur’s Seat. He crashed out of the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race though and this makes his condition a bit uncertain. Josh Edmondson also deserves to be mentioned. The talented Brit was left off the Sky roster and will now be riding with the British national team. He didn’t show much in his time with the big British team but like Morton, he has the potential to do well on this kind of climbs.

Finally, there are lots of Antipodeans that will try to challenge the biggest names. Look out for riders like Mark O’Brien, Cameron Bayly, Brenday Canty, Gus Morton, Joe Cooper and Robbie Hucker who could all create a surprise.

***** Simon Clarke

**** Cameron Meyer, Lachlan Norris

*** Lachlan Morton, Robert Power, Franco Pellizotti

** Serge Pauwels, Lucas Euser, Josh Edmondson, Robbie Hucker

* Gus Morton, Mark O’Brien, Cameron Bayly, Brenday Canty, Damien Howson, Tanner Putt, Samuel Spokes, Joe Cooper