The end of the cycling season is drawing closer but one of the most prestigious classics is still up for grabs. Being one of only five cycling monuments, Il Lombardia is a highly coveted race with a deep history and traditionally signals the end of the cycling year. A very hilly course makes it the toughest of the monuments and its new date has again made it attract a formidable line-up that turns this year's start list into one of the strongest in recent years, with the race shaping up as a perfect Worlds revenge match.

 

At this time of the year, it is usually hard for riders to stay motivated and most of the big names are mostly longing for a break at the end of what has been a long, testing season. However, the biggest climbers have one incentive to keep going all the way to the end: the chance to add Il Lombardia to their palmares.

 

The Italian race is joined by Milan-Sanremo, Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix and Liege-Bastogne-Liege on the list of cycling's 5 monuments - the five most prestigious one-day races - and so a win in the Italian classic is a career-defining moment. Unlike its fellow monuments which are all spring races, Il Lombardia is held in the autumn. This is probably the main reason for the fact that the race is usually regarded as the least prestigious of the biggest races as it is held at a time when fewer riders are in peak condition and when the public interest in cycling is in decline.

 

While the race may be a little less coveted than its fellow monuments, it is the one that makes the climbers dream. Alongside Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it is the only monument that the stage race specialists and climbers can realistically target and with longer ascents than in Liege, it suits the real mountain goats better than the Belgian classic. This fact is reflected in the winners list which is loaded with Ardennes specialists and strong climbers.

 

While races like Sanremo, Roubaix and Liege are bound by their names and history to follow certain routes, Il Lombardia is much more diverse. Like Flanders, it is a tour through a certain region and this creates plenty of room for variation of the courses. The start and finishing cities and the courses have all varied a lot during the years and the race will never get any kind of fixed format. The only real signature symbols of the race are the Lake Como and the Madonna del Ghisallo climb. The steep ascent leads to the small church and a museum containing both religious and cycling objects and is one of the landmark climbs in professional cycling. While the climb is usually located too far from the finish to be the scene of the decisive attack, its toughness makes it a crucial place in any edition of the Lombardy race.

 

The race was first held in 1905 when it was known as Milan-Milan before being named Giro di Lombardia two years later. Since then, the race has been held every year with 1943 and 1944 being the only exceptions. Until 1960, it started and finished in Milan but in 1961 the finish was moved closer to the hills in Como. Since then it has finished in Milan, Monza, Bergamo and Como before the finish was moved to site in Lecco for the 2011, 2012 and 2013 edition. The race has mostly started in Milan but has had several exceptions. The two latest editions have started in Bergamo. After three years with identical finales and two years with very similar courses, the route has been given a major overhaul for 2014, making the race less predictable and the riders more uncertain about what to expect.

 

The race has been won by most of the biggest names in cycling, with Fausto Coppi holding the record with 5 wins. Surprisingly, Eddy Merckx has only triumphed twice and Sean Kelly and Henri Pelissier are the only non-Italian riders with three wins on their palmares. In recent years, the race has been dominated by Damiano Cunego, Michele Bartoli, Paolo Bettini, Philippe Gilbert and Joaquim Rodriguez who have all won the race at least twice, with the former rider being the only of them with three wins.

 

Due to its autumn date, the race is known as the "race of the falling leaves" and is the crown jewel of the many Italian autumn classics that are held during the month of October. With a tough course and many riders being fatigued, it is often characterized by many withdrawals and often produces surprise results. At this time of the year, it is more about freshness than anything else.

 

Until last year, the race was the final big European race of the season and many riders found it difficult to keep going from the World Championships until Il Lombardia. To attract bigger names and create synergy with the Worlds, the UCI restructured the calendar by moving the Italian classic to the weekend just after the global contest and postponing Paris-Tours to Il Lombardia's usual weekend. The shorter time gap should allow more riders to stay fresh and so add prestige to one of cycling's most important races. It may no longer signal the real end of the season but the start list has certainly been boosted by the move. Nowadays, it seems that all climbers that do the Worlds, postpone their off-season until after Il Lombardia. The synergy has been made even bigger by the fact that the three latest editions have all been held on hilly courses, meaning that lots of climbers have been riding in the battle for the rainbow jersey. Until 2012, the race was held on a Saturday but last year it was moved to the Sunday after the World Championships.

 

This year’s course for the World Championships may not have been as tough as the one used for the race in Florence but most of the world’s best climbers were still in attendance. This has again allowed Il Lombardia to attract a formidable line-up and while it may not be the same kind of revenge match as it was 12 months ago, it’s still a formidable chance to make amends for those whose dreams weren’t fulfilled in Ponferreda. Michal Kwiatkowski, Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert and Tony Gallopin all played key roles in the finale last Sunday and they will all be ready to fight it out again in a few days.

 

Last year Rodriguez was one of those riders as he went into Il Lombardia with a bitter feeling after having been so agonizingly close to the rainbow jersey. The Spaniard got his just revenge as he defended his title in the Italian classic by dropping all his rivals with one of his trademark accelerations on the final Villa Vergano climb. To make things even sweeter for Rodriguez, Alejandro Valverde who had been the main reason for his near-miss in Florence, was his nearest chaser and had to settle for second. Daniel Martin and Rafal Majka were set to sprint it out for the final spot on the podium, with Martin being the obvious favourite, but the Irishman crashed in the final turn, leaving Majka to take his best result in a major one-day race. Majka has already ended his season and won’t be on the start line but Rodriguez and Valverde will both be back to continue their rivalry on the revamped course, with Rodriguez aiming at becoming the first rider since Fausto Coppi to win the race three years in a row.

 

The course

As said, there is nothing fixed about the course for Il Lombardia which has changed several times over the years. Several times the race seems to have found its format but apparently organizers RCS Sport are keen not to have any kind of monotony and recognisability. Whenever the race has had the same finale for a number of years, the course is always given a major overhaul.

 

After three years with the finish in Lecco and the final climb of the Villa Vergano, it is time for another change. This year’s course is completely different from the one used in the latest editions and only the landmark climb of the Madonna del Ghisallo and the scenic run along the Lake Como will provide the riders with any kind of familiarity. The rest of the course is completely new and both the start and finish has been moved. Bergamo which hosted the finish from 1995 to 2003 will again be the scene of the finish of the final monument of the race while Como has been chosen as start city.

 

The new course has three main features. First of all, the Madonna del Ghisallo won’t play its usual important role in the finale. Having usually been located as one of the final climbs, the landmark ascent is now the first challenge of the day and will play no major role in determining the outcome of the race. Secondly, the major climbing now comes closer to the finish. In the past, the biggest climbs have often been located at the midpoint and the finale has had long, flat stretches along the Lake Como. Now the final half is almost always up or down, making it easier to attack from afar. Finally, the finale is significantly easier than in the past few years. Now the last major climb comes 25km from the finish and even though the riders will face a short, steep climb in Bergamo inside the final 5km, the main difference will have had to be made earlier than usual.

 

At 256km, the race has the typical length of a monument. It will start in Como for the first time since 2003 and the first 40km consist of a run through the rolling but mostly flat terrain south of Lake Como. This will be the scene of some very aggressive racing where the early break will be established. With no big climb in the finale of the race, everybody knows that they have to attack from a bit further out and so it may be a good idea to have teammates up the road. Hence, the opening part of the race will probably be a big tactical game but as the major teams will mark each other closely, the early break will probably be made up of riders from some of the smaller teams.

 

After a short, scenic run along the shores of the Lake Como, the riders turn around and go up the famous climb of the Madonna del Ghisallo (8.58km, 6.2%, max. 14%). With a gradient of more than 9%, the first 3km are the hardest while the middle section is flat, even with a slight descent. In the end, the climb kicks up again for 1.2km at a 9.5% gradient but this time the landmark climb will play no significant role. As usual, the bell will be ringing to signal the arrival of Il Lombardia but this year the climb will mainly be used to accumulate fatigue in the legs.

 

Having taken the long, gradual descent, the riders leave Lake Como by travelling in a southerly direction to the plains of the Po Valley where they will be travelling along completely flat roads for a while. Going in an easterly direction, the riders will reach the finishing city of Bergamo after 133km before taking on the final loop in the hilly area north of the city. In this flat section, the breakaway will probably get a very big advantage as it is usually the case in the monument races before the chase will gradually get started.

 

The hilly finale starts at the 141.2km mark when the riders hit the bottom of the short Colle dei Pasta climb and from there, there will be very little room for recovery. A short flat section leads to the Colle Gallo (7.43km, 6.0%, max. 10%) which has an easy first 1.5km but is otherwise very regular with gradients of around 7%. The technical descent leads almost straight to the bottom of the day’s main climb, Passo Ganda (9.2km, 7.3%, max. 15%). The first 7km of that ascent are regular with a gradient of around 6.5% but it gets significantly steeper near the top as the final 2.2km average 9.8% and offer several two-digit sections.

 

These first climbs are the hardest of the day and with a flatter finale, the riders need to make use of them to make a difference. It may be a bit too early for the main favourites to make a difference but they definitely need to use their teams to make the race hard. From here, the race will be a gradual elimination race as some of the stronger teams use their many climbers to turn it into a tough affair. Il Lombardia has often been marked by long-distance attacks – last year Thomas Voeckler got close to victory by attacking from afar – and we can expect some strong climbers try to make a move from a bit further out.

 

After the top, there’s still 64.1km to go. The first part is a technical descent before the riders hit the short, steep Berbenno climb. Another descent leads to the final big climb of the day. Berbenno is 5.5km and has an average gradient of 5.5% and a maximum of 10%. The first two kilometres are pretty easy while the hardest part is the middle section that has an average gradient of 7.1% for 2.5km, including a short 10% section. At 1.7%, the final kilometre is very easy. For non-explosive riders that want to avoid a sprint finish, this is the place to attack and even though the climb is not very tough, its location after 230km of hard racing should make it a bit more selection.

 

The climb summits 26.1km from the finish and they first consist of a technical descent and then slightly descending roads in a sourtherly direction towards the finish in Bergamo. This section clearly favours a bigger group over attackers and it requires determination to stay away in this part of the race. Unless some really strong climbers have blown the race apart, we will probably see a bit of a regrouping here but the race could become very uncontrollable. As domestique resources are likely to be limited, this flat section may be the place to launch the decisive attack.

 

There’s a small climb in the city of Aimé just 10km from the finish and then it’s back onto flat roads until the riders hit the final challenge of the day. The climb to Bergamo Alta is a short, steep ascent that has grown to fame due to its important role in numerous bike races. It starts 4.7km from the finish, is 2.9km long and has an average gradient of 7.9%. After 500m at a gradient of 6.4%, however, there’s a 500m section of 9.8% which includes a 12% and cobbled roads. The climb levels our near the top that comes with 3.5km to go. The final part is almost all downhill as the descent ends just 700m from the line. There are a few turns along the way but the left-hand turn comes 900m from the line and from there it is straight all the way to the finish in the centre of Bergamo.

 

The final climb to Bergamo Alta offers the explosive climbers a final chance to make a difference and the most likely scenario is that a small group will battle it out on the steep slopes. Being a very short climb, it definitely suits the punchy, explosive riders who can make a difference on this kind of ascent after more than 250km of racing. With just 3.5km of predominantly downhill, a solo rider may hold off the chase but it could also come down to a sprint from a small group or a few riders on the flat finishing straight in Bergamo.

 

 

 

 

 

The weather

The last few editions of Il Lombardia have been marred by bad weather – especially two years ago when there were no live images from the final climb. This year it could again be a tricky affair as lots of rain is forecasted for early next week.

 

For the moment, it seems that the majority of the rain will be falling on Monday and Tuesday, meaning that the riders could have a dry race on Sunday. All day there is a risk of showers though and there is little chance that the sun will break through. The temperature will reach a maximum of around 17 degrees.

 

There will only be a very light wind from a southeasterly direction. This means that the riders will mainly have a headwind and cross-headwind from the bottom of the Ghisallo until the bottom of Colle Gallo. From here, it will mainly be a tailwind and cross-tailwind until the riders turn into a headwind at the top of Berbenno, meaning that it will be harder to stay away after a long-distance attack.

 

The favourites

A new course always means a new dynamic and lots of uncertainty. While the few variations mean that races like Milan-Sanremo, Paris-Roubaix and Liege-Bastogne-Liege usually unfold in a pretty similar way, Il Lombardia’s varying nature means that it is the one that is hardest to predict. Furthermore, it makes it harder for the riders to make their strategy for the race as they know little about how the race will unfold.

 

Over the last few years, the old course had given the race an established format but this year the revamped route will throw everything up in the air. As already said, the second half of the race is now a lot hillier, with less flats, meaning that the finale should be a lot harder. As the top of the final long climb comes 26.1km from the finish, however, it will be very hard for a single or a few attackers to get a gap and keep it all the way to the end. Hence, a small group is likely to arrive at the bottom of the Bergamo Alta climb to battle it out, with the short, explosive ascent suiting the puncheurs.

 

This will turn the race into a very interesting affair that could potentially suit two different types of riders. First of all, the climbs in the second half of the race are a lot longer than they are in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and especially the Passo Ganda is a very tough one. This will suit the climbers a lot more than the classics specialists and if a strong team decides to blow the race to pieces, the puncheurs may have been dropped by the time we reach the finale.

 

On the other hand, the final 25km and the finale suit the classics riders perfectly. The pure climbers will have a hard time making a difference on such a short climb and they need to make the race hard on the previous climbs. If the puncheurs have survived at this point of the race, they will have a great chance to come away with the win but the huge amount of previous climbing may have taken the sting out of their legs.

 

This should make for some interesting dynamics in the race. While the first half is likely to be pretty uneventful, we would expect the teams of the climbers to try to make the race hard as soon as they hit the climbs in the second half. Alberto Contador knows that he needs to get rid of the puncheurs before the finale and he is surrounded by a pretty strong team. We expect that Tinkoff-Saxo will ride tempo on the ascents in a quest to put the classics riders under pressure. Movistar and Katusha are likely to have similar plans and this should turn the race into a pretty hard affair.

 

It will be interesting to see if the favourites will try to attack each other from afar. If Contador wants to win the race, he has to blow it to pieces from the distance but he may be more focused on maximizing his WorldTour tally than the win. Hence, he is unlikely to risk everything in a bold move from afar. Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez will be confident in their abilities to power away on the final climb and will save everything for Bergamo Alta. Hence, we expect the race to be one of elimination on the long climbs before the favourites will battle it out on Bergamo Alta in the finale.

 

This scenario means that the race is suited to a strong climber who can sustain the pace on the long ascents and has the punch to make a difference on the final climb. A fast sprint is definitely no disadvantage as it may be difficult for a solo rider to ride away in the finale.

 

This means that Alejandro Valverde must be the favourite to win this race. Despite his credentials as one of the best classics riders of his generation, the Spaniard has rarely given the final monument a shot. Apart from three participations in the early part of his career, he has skipped the race for most of the years before returning in 2013 when he finished second behind Joaquim Rodriguez.

 

Valverde is perfectly suited to this race as he has all the important skills. Being one of the best climbers in the world, the Spaniard will be very hard to drop on the climbs in the second half and he should reach the finale a lot fresher than riders like Simon Gerrans, Michal Kwiatkowski, Philippe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet. Secondly, he is very explosive and should be able to make the difference on the final climb. Finally, he is the fastest rider of the favourites in this kind of flat sprint.

 

Most importantly, Valverde is still in excellent condition. He may have done two grand tours in a row and been focused on the Worlds but history shows that the Spaniard is never too far from his best and a hugely consistent rider. Last Sunday he was the strongest rider on the final climb and Bergamo Alta should suit him a lot better. He may have skipped Milan-Turin to attend the birth of his daughter but there is little doubt that he will be ready to go. It will be very hard for anyone to drop Valverde anywhere on this course and in a sprint only very few have a realistic chance of beating him, meaning that Valverde has a great chance to add another monument to his impressive palmares.

 

Joaquim Rodriguez has won this race twice in a row and has a chance to write his name into the history books by becoming the first rider since Fausto Coppi to win the race thrice in a row. However, the defending champion will definitely be regretting the course changes which will make it much harder for him to defend his title.

 

The short, steep Villa Vergano climb which featured in the finale of the recent editions suited Rodriguez down to the ground. Bergamo Alta may have a steep section near the top but is shorter than Villa Vergano. Rodriguez has a formidable punch on the steepest slopes but he may need a harder finale to be able to make a difference.

 

With such a short finishing climb, Rodriguez needs the race to be as hard as possible. Hence, it will be no surprise to see the formidable Katusha team use its strength to turn the race into one of attrition. If everyone is at their limit, Rodriguez may be able to drop everybody else by launching one of his trademark accelerations in the finale and as it is mainly downhill all the way to the finish, he could stay away to the finish. To win the race, however, he needs to get away from Valverde and will probably have to arrive solo at the finish in Bergamo.

 

Rodriguez rode strongly in the Vuelta but was not as strong as in previous years. In the Worlds road race, he launched a strong attack in the finale to set Valverde up for an attack before drifting back and yesterday he beat Alberto Contador in the uphill finish in Milan-Turin. Having had an injury-filled season, he may be fresher than some of his rivals and this could make the difference at this point of the season. Rodriguez will try to win this race in the way he has done the past two years and he has a big chance of finishing it off.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski was definitely the strongest riders last Sunday when he took a maiden rainbow jersey at just 24 years of age. He will try to make use of his good condition in Il Lombardia where he will make his debut in the coveted tunic.

 

This year Kwiatkowski has won the Worlds and finished in the top 5 in all three Ardennes classics, meaning that he is one of the best riders in the world for hilly one-day races. Furthermore, he has proved that he can handle the long distances, making him an obvious candidate for this race.

 

Like Gerrans, however, Kwiatkowski may struggle a bit on the harder course in Lombardy. Even though he is a better climber than the Australian, he usually suffers on the longer climbs. Being a punchy climber, an excellent descender and a good sprinter, he is perfectly suited to the finale but the sting may have been taken out of his legs at that point. Furthermore, history shows that the new world champion usually has a hard time in Lombardy as he has had a lot of non-racing commitments in the time leading up to the race. If he has kept his focus, however, Kwiatkowski is definitely one of the favourites for this race.

 

Alberto Contador has only won one one-day race in his life, Milan-Turin whose hard uphill finish makes it suited to his skills as a pure climber. Fleche Wallonne is equally suited to his skills but not many one-day races are within reach for the strong Spaniard.

 

Being the hardest monument, Il Lombardia is probably the one of the five big races that suits the Vuelta champion the best and for the third year in a row, he will give it a shot. This time he lines up at the race in a lot better condition that he has done in the last two seasons and this time he will have a lot better chance of actually winning the race.

 

However, the new finale doesn’t suit Contador very well. Bergamo Alta is probably too short for him to make a difference and he needs to arrive alone at the finish if he wants to win the race. His most obvious chance is to try from afar but his main goal in this race is to score points for the WorldTour. Hence, he is likely to try to finish as high as possible instead of going all out in an attempt to win. He needs to make the race as hard as possible and try to go full gas on the final climb. He is unlikely to drop the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez and will probably have to settle for a minor placing. Being the best climber in the race, however, it can’t be ruled out that he will actually be able to take a solo win.

 

His condition is a bit uncertain. After the Vuelta, he has only raced once, finishing 6th in Milan-Turin which suits him a lot better. In that race, he was beaten by both Fabio Aru and Joaquim Rodriguez. However, it was his first competition for several weeks and mostly served to get him back up to racing speed. His big goal remains Il Lombardia and the longer distance should suit him well.

 

Last year Daniel Martin would definitely have finished on the podium if he hadn’t crashed in the final turn and earlier this year he would probably have won Liege-Bastogne-Liege if he hadn’t had a similar mishap. With a win in the 2013 edition of La Doyenne, Martin has proved that he is one of the very best in the hilly one-day races and this obviously makes him one of the favourites for Il Lombardia.

 

Martin is both a strong climber for the longer ascents and a very punchy guy for the short climb in the finale. Finally, he is a very fast sprinter which means that he has all the skills to excel on the new course.

 

This year, however, Martin arrives at the race on the back of his best ever performance in a grand tour. As he has only managed to ride for GC twice in his career, he has very little experience in handling the fatigue at the end of such a hard racing burden. At the end of the Vuelta, he admitted to being very tired but he still went into the Worlds road race with lots of confidence. He was again hit by bad luck when he crashed with two laps to go, never returning to the peloton. However, he didn’t use it as an excuse those as he admitted to still feeling tired and not feeling great.

 

To win Il Lombardia, he will probably have to be close to 100% and this no longer seems to be the case. At this point of the season, however, everybody is tired and being perfectly suited to the course, another monument win may be in store for the Irishman.

 

With two top 5 finishes in grand tours, Fabio Aru has had an amazing year but nothing suggests that the talented Italian is slowing down. In fact, he rode amazingly in the Worlds road race, blowing the race to pieces before going on the attack. That race was too easy for him but it was encouraging to see that he still seems to be fresh and could handle the very long distance.

 

Aru has never shined in one-day races before but yesterday he lined up for Milan-Turin and showed that he can do well in those events too. He may have been unable to catch the late attackers but on the final climb, he emerged as the strongest in the highly anticipated battle against Contador and Rodriguez. This indicates that he is still riding very strongly and may be the strongest climber at the moment.

 

However, the finale doesn’t suit him too well. Aru is not very explosive and he has no fast sprint. To win the race, he needs to drop everybody else on Bergamo Alta and that will be hard for a pure climber like him. At the end of 250 hard kilometres, however, the Italian may be strong enough to do so.

 

For many years, Il Lombardia was regarded as being too hard for Philippe Gilbert to win but in his heydays, he managed to prove the pundits wrong by winning it twice. In the last few years, however, he has been unable to reach his best level and so he has been unable to repeat those feats in the autumn classic.

 

Going into the Worlds road race, no one expected much from Gilbert who had shown less than ideal condition in the Vuelta. However, the Belgian had suddenly found some form and was clearly one of the strongest on the final climb. In fact, he seemed to be stronger than his leader Greg Van Avermaet but he still chose to sacrifice himself for his captain.

 

In Lombardy, Gilbert will join forces with Samuel Sanchez, Tejay van Garderen and Cadel Evans on a very strong BMC team. This time the hierarchy may be less fixed and at the moment, Gilbert seems to be stronger than both van Garderen and Evans. Being no pure climber, he may suffer on the long climbs and he may not have his usual punch in the finale. At the moment, however, he seems to be in great condition and if he is still there at the end, he may be able to stay with the best on the final climb before winning the race in a sprint.

 

Rui Costa was unable to defend his Worlds title which was no surprise. The course in Ponferrada didn’t suit him very well but it may have been a bit unexpected that he was unable to stay with the best on the final climb. In Canada, he showed great condition but he no longer seemed to have the same spark in Spain.

 

However, Costa is well-suited to Il Lombardia. He is a great climber who should have no trouble in the harder second half and he is pretty explosive on shorter ascents too. He is pretty fast but will have to get rid of Valverde before the finish. For this, he has his main weapons which are his great tactical skills. He is unlikely to drop his rivals on the final climb but if a small group is still together at the top, he will know how to make a late attack in the finale.

 

Samuel Sanchez was hugely disappointed not to have been selected for the World Championships. As usual, the Spaniard got better and better throughout the Vuelta and ended the race in 6th. In the past, he has usually come out very strongly from the Spanish grand tour and it is now coincidence that he has finished second in Lombardy on three occasions.

 

Sanchez has proved that he is strong in the long one-day races and this one suits him pretty well. He is a strong climber with a lot of punch and a fast sprint. Of course he will have to get rid of Valverde but he has a vast experience that could come in a handy in a tactical finale. Like Costa, he may benefit from a tactical battle after the top of the final climb. The main question is his form as it may have been hard for him to maintain his motivation after not getting selected for the Worlds.

 

Bauke Mollema has finished in the top 10 in almost all editions of the Ardennes classics in the last three years and earlier this year he finished second in San Sebastien and 10th in both the GP Quebec and Montreal. Those performances all prove that the Dutchman is one of the best riders for the hilly one-day races and Il Lombardia should suit him well.

 

Mollema is both a good climber and a fast sprinter which should make him a good candidate on the new course. However, his condition is a bit uncertain. Having been solid in Canada, he was expected to improve for the Worlds but he was unable to follow the best on the final climb. He admitted to being disappointed with his own and the Dutch performance and he doesn’t seem to be at his best at the moment. Unlike most other favourites, however, he has done little racing in the last few months and that freshness may see him improve for Sunday’s race.

 

In 2014, Tony Gallopin has taken a massive step up. In the Tour de France he both won a stage and wore the yellow jersey and he climbed better than ever before. Last Sunday he again put his improved skills on show when he joined Van Avermaet in bridging the gap to the Gerrans/Valverde group on the final descent.

 

Gallopin is more of a classics rider than a pure climber and Il Lombardia may be a bit too hard for him. If he has the same climbing legs he had in the Dauphiné and parts of the Tour, however, he will be hard to drop in the Italian race. He is explosive on short climbs and has a fast sprint, making him suited to this race. Like Costa, Mollema and Sanchez, he will probably have to use tactics to win the race but in the Tour and last year’s San Sebastian he proved that he knows how to do so.

 

Finally, Warren Barguil deserves a mention. The Frenchman rode strongly in the Vuelta before putting himself at Nacer Bouhanni’s service in the Worlds road race. In Lombardy, he will be one of the leaders of a strong Giant-Shimano team and even though he has not done too well in the classics yet, his performance in the Worlds indicates that he is able to do well in long one-day races. Having chased hard behind the big group in the finale, he still had enough left in the tank to be one of the strongest on the final climn.

 

Barguil seems to be riding well at the moment but his main weakness is the fact that he is not very fast in a sprint and not very explosive on shorter climbs. He has a decent punch but to win the race, he will probably have to drop most of the favourites before the finish and he won’t be able to drop his rivals on the final climb. However, he has the strong legs and the aggressive nature that could see him benefit from a tactical battle to take a breakthrough classics win.

 

***** Alejandro Valverde

**** Joaquim Rodriguez, Michal Kwiatkowski

*** Alberto Contador, Daniel Martin, Fabio Aru

** Philippe Gilbert, Rui Costa, Samuel Sanchez, Bauke Mollema, Tony Gallopin, Warren Barguil

* Thibaut Pinot, Daniel Moreno, Giampaolo Caruso, Romain Bardet, Tom Dumoulin, Davide Formolo, Michael Albasini, Edoardo Zardini, Rigoberto Uran, Alexis Vuillermoz, Frank Schleck, Rinaldo Nocentini, Ryder Hesjedal, Jelle Vanendert, David Lopez, Diego Rosa, Mauro Finetto, Pieter Serry, Gianluca Brambilla, Francesco Bongiorno, Lars Petter Nordhaug