Two classics have already been up for grabs for the climbers but there is one that is more coveted among them than any other and that's in the dreams of any Ardennes expert. Sunday is the most important day of the spring for many of the world's most formidable bike riders as the classics season comes to a close with the oldest and hardest of the one-day races: Liege-Bastogne-Liege.

 

A win in an Ardennes classic can make the difference in a rider's career but only one race has the status to make a legend and write a rider's name deep into the cycling history. Amstel Gold Race and Fleche Wallonne are both prestigious races with their very unique characteristics but they lack the history to be one of the really big ones. That's not the case for the final race in the series which is the one that's on the top of the list for all Ardennes contenders as Liege-Bastogne-Liege is one of the very finest races on the entire cycling calendar.

 

It is no coincidence that almost all of the world's best climbers and stage race experts are travelling to the Belgian city of Liege these days to mix it up with the one-day specialists who have battled it out on the slopes of the Ardennes in the Amstel Gold Race and the Fleche Wallonne. While the first two of the hilly spring classics are suited to riders of an explosive nature, the last of the three races in the Netherlands and Belgium is much more of a climber's race.

 

What characterizes most stage race experts are their strength on the climbs and a formidable endurance and that is exactly what is needed to come out triumphant in Sunday's Liege-Bastogne-Liege. For once the key attributes in a classic are not an ability to handle the constant battle for position or to sprint up short, steep climbs. On Sunday you need the ability to keep going and wear down your opponents on a long, hard day with numerous climbs which are longer than the ones found in the other Ardennes classics and where the long distance will take its toll.

 

These factors give the Liege-Bastogne-Liege its unique position on the cycling calendar. It is the one opportunity of the year to see such a strong line-up of classics specialists and grand tour riders going head to head on almost equal terms. The Tour of Lombardy shares some of the same characteristics but the Italian classic is held at a time where many riders have ended their season and the start list is not nearly as impressive as the one found in Sunday's race. While many riders wait until late in the season to decide whether to right in Lombardy, the race in Liege is a clear objective for almost every rider with a decent paur of climbing legs.

 

One reason for the esteem of the Belgian race is its nature and characteristics. The other major factor is the deep history of the race. First held in 1892, "La Doyenne"  is the oldest among the classics and has an impressive list of winners to boost its significance. Like most other old races, it was originally organized by a local newspaper, L'Expresse, who put on the race to gain publicity. Leon Hua won the first three editions before the race was put on hold until 1908 where it was revived, only to again be shelved due to World War I.

 

When the race was back on the calendar, it was still mainly a Belgian affair, with only one foreign win in the years between the two wars. That changed after World War II and since then it has been one of the most coveted races for every ambitious cyclist. It almost seems to be a God-given fact that the greatest of all riders, Eddy Merckx, tops the rankings with no less than 5 triumphs in Liege while Moreno Argentin has been the greatest Ardennes specialist in recent years as the only one with four wins in La Doyenne in addition to his record three victories in Fleche Wallonne.

 

The race is the fourth of cycling's 5 monuments, the most important one-day races of the sport, and it is without any doubt one of the most prestigious in this very exclusive group. It also plays a crucial role for the most important sport in one of the most split countries in the world. While the Flemish people see the Ronde van Vlaanderen as the highlight of the classics season, their Wallonian compatriots see nothing coming even close to the status of their Ardennes battle.

 

In the past, it was held one day after Fleche Wallonne in the so-called La Weekend Ardennais. In modern-day cycling, it makes no sense to have two of the biggest one-day races on successive days and so the idea has now been shelved but with Amstel Gold Race and Fleche Wallonne it makes of the triptych of the Ardennes classics, held in just 8 days of exciting competition. Only 7 riders have won Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege in the same year while only Davide Rebellin and Philippe Gilbert have made the Ardennes treble, with the latter even also taking the Brabantse Pijl when he made the feat in 2011.

 

As the hardest of the one-day classics, the race fits perfectly into the overall structure of the cycling season and the anatomy of the Ardennes classics. The hilly one-day races have seen a gradual changing of the guard as more and more climbers have arrived in the classics heartland while more and more cobbles specialists have taken a well-deserved rest. While the strong men of the Tour of Flanders and the Paris-Roubaix could still play a role on the narrow Dutch roads and short climbs in the Amstel Gold Race, they have nothing to do in Liege on Sunday. And as the hard climbs make a much more natural selection and gradual elimination in La Doyenne, positioning is not as important as it has been in the previous races and so the race favourites are much more in need for climbing domestiques than strong riders. Hence, it will be a start list consisting almost solely of riders who specialize in climbing.

 

Furthermore, the race marks a perfect transition from the classics season to the time of the grand tours which kicks off in a few weeks time with the Giro d'Italia. With the stage race experts and classics specialists all gathered on the same start line, it is another perfect example of the beautiful anatomy of the cycling calendar that has taken us from the sprinters at Milan-Sanremo over the heavier guys in the cobbled races and the puncheurs in the first Ardennes races to the climbers in Sunday's final classic and in May's Giro d'Italia.

 

The last two editions have proved that one of the beauties of the race is that the winner is not always one of the pre-race favourites. After Maxim Iglinskiy's surprise win in 2011, it was Daniel Martin who denied the biggest names 12 months ago. The Irishman had sent his teammate Ryder Hesjedal up the road inside the final 20km and the then Giro champion did a fantastic job to keep the chasing peloton at bay. He survived all the way to the top of the final climb of the Cote de Saint-Nicolas where he was joined by an elite selection of riders that had escaped on the steep slopes. With Martin, Carlos Betancur, Michele Scarponi, Alejandro Valverde, and Joaquim Rodriguez for company, Hesjedal put down the hammer, sacrificing himself completely for his teammate until Martin took things into his own hands on the final rise to the finish in Ans. Rodriguez powered clear on the lower slopes and seemed to be riding away with the win but Martin gradually clawed his way back to the Katusha leader before leaving him behind just a few hundred metres from the line to take the biggest win of his career while Valverde won the sprint for third. Martin, Rodriguez and Valverde will all be back in 2014 and are all expected to be main contenders in another great edition of the oldest classic.

 

The course

The 263km race is one of the few classics - Milan-Sanremo is another - which really keeps its tradition of travelling between the cities that make up its name. Even though the race route varies a bit from year to year, the strong links to the past means that the race has been using the same roads and climbs for years. Unlike races like the Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix and especially Il Lombardia which always undergo significant changes, the alterations to the Liege course are usually only minor corrections.

 

That doesn't mean that things haven't changed though. In the past, the race's key climb was the Cote de la Redoute which was always the scene of the big battle between the race favourites. With modern-day racing being more controlled, however, the organizers had to come up with a plan to again make the race more selective as the landmark climb was now located too far from the finish for the favourites to make their move.

 

That idea was to introduce the climb of the Cote-de-la-Roche-aux-Faucons which is located much closer to Liege and so comes inside the final 20km of the race. It was first included in 2009 and since then it has been the most important point of the race. Due to road construction, however, it was absent from last year's course, making the 2013 edition an unusually easy affair. This year it is back and together with Redoute, the short, steep Cote de Saint-Nicolas and the slight rise to the finish in Ans, it will make for a tough end to a long race.

 

This year's edition is the 100th and so the organizers have wanted to celebrate the race's long history. This has prompted them to make a few key changes to the route to include more historic roads but overall, the race is very similar to the most recent editions, with the climbs being mostly the same. This year there will be a special sprint in Bastogne at the 100km mark, with the winner taking home a lucrative prize money, offering an extra incentive to be part of the day's early break.

 

As usual, the race starts in the industrial city of Liege and travels south into the heartland of the Belgian Ardennes. As it is the case in most of the classics, the opening part of the race is not overly difficult and while it is impossible to traverse the region without going up and down most of the time, the 100km from Liege to Bastogne only take in one categorized climb, the Cote de la Roche-en-Ardenne (2.8km, 6.2%) after 70km of racing. This part of the race plays the same role as it does in all major classics as it allows the early break to take off and accumulates fatigue in the riders' legs. Early escapees have no chance in this long race but team tactics play a big role and it may be no bad idea to have a rider up the road. Hence, it may take some time for the early break to get clear and we can expect a fast start to the race.

 

When the riders reach Bastogne, they turn around to head back to Liege but this time they take in a much longer and harder route. Having climbed the Cote de Saint-Roch (1.0km, 11.1%) after 123km, the racing gets serious  when they hit the Cote de Wanne (2.8km, 7.2%) with 96km to go. From then on the 7 remaining climbs come in quick succession and there will be no time to recover during the remaining part of the course. The next one is the brutally steep Cote de Stockeu (1km, 12.4%) which leads to the Stele Eddy Merckx and comes 89.5km from the finish. Then it's the Cote de la Haute-Levee (3.6km, 5.6%) 84km from the finish and the Cote Vecquee (3.1km, 6.4%) 62km from the finish.

 

This is the time for the strong teams to start to apply the pressure, and from then on it is a gradual elimination race as every climb sees plenty of riders drop off under the hard pace. Meanwhile, the race is usually very aggressive in this phase. It is not uncommon to see the creation of a break from which the strongest are able to remain in contention deep into the finale. By sending riders up the road, several teams want to prepare later attacks and force their rivals to chase hard and it is not unusual to see the race situation change rather often at this point, with riders falling off the pace and more riders bridging across to the lead.

 

The race reaches its landmark climb the Cote de La Redoute (2.0km, 8,8%) with 44.5km still to go. As said, the ascent is no longer the decisive point in the race as it used to be but it still plays a very important role. This is the place where the first major selection takes place and it is a brutal wall to get to the bottom in one of the leading positions.  At the top of the Redoute, the number of contenders has been drastically reduced andthe climb remains a perfect opportunity for riders just below the front row to hit out in an attempt to try to surprise the favourites.

 

In the past, there was no climb in between the Cote de La Redoute and the Cote de la Roche-aux-Faucons but this year the Redoute features a bit farther from the finish than usual to make room for the Cote des Forges (1.9km, 5.9%) whick comes 31.5km from the finish. That climb, however, is not very tough and with 25km between La Redoute and Roche-aux-Faucons, there will be plenty of time for a regrouping to take place and the chase to get organized. It would be no surprise if the major teams have caught all escapes by the time they hit the Roche-aux-Fauconx (1.5km, 9.3%) whose top comes 19.5km from the finish.

 

Since being introduced in 2009, Cote de la Roche-aux-Faucons has always played a key role in the race and it has been the place for the favourites to drop their competitors. In 2009 Andy Schleck soloed off the front to take an emphatic victory, in 2011 the decisive move with the Schleck brothers and eventual winner Philippe Gilbert went clear on this climb and in 2012 Vincenzo Nibali put down the hammer and dropped all of his companions on this crucial ascent in what seemed to be the race-winning move. Only in 2010 when Alexandre Vinokourov won, the climb failed to create a major selection.

 

At the top of Roche-aux-Faucons, a select group of favourites may have gone clear but if the cards are not right, there is still plenty of room for a regrouping to take place. Despite the terrain not being very difficult, this section cannot be underestimated as domestique ressources will be limited and it will be less obvious who's going to chase down the attacks. That's what Vinokourov and Alexandr Kolobnev benefited from when they made their race-winning move in 2010.

 

As usual, the riders have one final chance to drop any companions as the Cote de Saint-Nicolas (1.2km, 8.6%) is once again located with just 5.5km to go. This is usually the scene of the final attacks of the race, and the steep slopes can create plenty of damage late in a long, hard race. This is where the main selection was made 12 months ago and with its location so close to the finish, there is a great chance that any kind of advantage can be maintained to the finish.

 

After the top it is a short descent until the final 1.5km to the finish line in the Liege suburb of Ans. This final section has a gradual incline and while it is not one of the categorized climbs of the race, a 4.6% average gradient in the final kilometer makes for a hard finish to an already very hard race. As it was evidenced last year, this final climb can produce a spectacular finish and some rather huge time gaps and if more than one rider arrives together at the bottom, the front group is likely to have split by the time, the leading rider takes the right-hand turn onto the finishing straight a few hundred metres from the line. It is not always the fastest who wins a sprint into Ans but more often the one with most power left in his legs, making it a fitting end to one of the most prestigious and probably the hardest one-day race on the calendar.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders have had splendid weather for all their classics in Belgium, the Netherlands and France this spring but it seems that it will all come to an end in the final big one-day race of the year. At the moment, the weather forecasts predict a rainy day in Wallonia and it will also be a rather cold affair as the temperatures are not expected to exceed the 13-degree mark.

 

There won't be much wind though as a light breeze will be blowing from a sourthwesterly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-headwind on their long run from Liege to Bastogne before turning into a cross-tailwind. After the Haute-Levee, there will mostly be a crosswind but importantly, the riders will turn into a cross-tailwind after the Roche-aux-Faucons, making it easier for any escapees to keep their advantage to the finish.

 

The favourites

Even though Liege-Bastogne-Liege is held in the same week as the Amstel Gold Race and Fleche Wallonne, it would be a mistake to make too many comparisons with the two previous Ardennes classics. Even though several key contenders are the same in the three races and the list of favourites contain some of the same names, a number of factors mean that completely new names can turn up near the front and that the internal hierarchy between the Ardennes contenders cannot just be transferred from Amstel and Fleche to Liege.

 

First of all, the nature of the race is very different. In Amstel and Fleche, it is all about explosiveness and punchy climbing skills and with a limited selection, positioning is key to success. Liege-Bastogne-Liege is a race of attrition where endurance and climbing skills count for a lot more. The natural selection is much bigger and so you don't need to be positioned near the very front to achieve success and even though a fast sprint is of course a big advantage, it is more about freshness and strength when we pass the 200km mark and get into the finale of the race. Amstel lacks the toughness and Fleche the distance and the combination of those two factors make Liege a different affair.

 

Furthermore, the race is the biggest target for most of the Ardennes contenders and a number of key riders may have held something back in the two previous races to stay fresh for Sunday's race. It is not unusual to see riders who have shown nothing in the first two races suddenly figure at the pointy end of the race. Finally, a host of new riders from Trentino and elsewhere have been brought in for this race, making the line-up one of the most star-studded of the entire season, probably only rivaled by the one for the Tour de France.

 

With the absence of the Cote de la Roche aux Faucons, last year's course was rather easy, making the race less selective than usual, and it was a rather big group that arrived at the bottom of the Cote de Saint-Nicolas. However, it is testament to the general toughness of the terrain that the group exploded on a short climb that would make a much smaller difference if it had been located at the end of just about any other classic. With the Roche aux Faucons back on the course, the race will be back to its previous format, offering the climbers a better chance to shine.

 

Despite the differences, our favourite is a rider who has been in the mix in both of the previous classics. Despite being one of the most decorated riders of his generation, Alejandro Valverde has had the best ever start to a season and he crowned it all when he broke a 6-year drought in the Ardennes at Wednesday's Fleche Wallonne. He has now won both Fleche and Liege twice and the hilly one-day races obviously suit his characteristics perfectly.

 

Based on his outstanding form all season, we had already made Alejandro Valverde our favourite to win the Amstel Gold Race but the Spaniard didn't live up to expectations. For a climber like Valverde, however, the Dutch classic is the one that suits him the least and he has now entered his preferred terrain. In fact, the climbs and the longer distance should be even better for Valverde than the brutally steep Mur de Huy where some of the lighter riders have an advantage.

 

When he came back from his doping suspension, he lacked a bit in the longest, hardest races and it has taken him a few years to get back up to speed. In 2012, he was nowhere to be seen in the Ardennes and in 2013 he was one of the most consistent riders but lacked his previous punch to turn his strength into wins. In 2014, that has certainly changed as he is currently the most successful rider in the peloton.

 

Valverde is one of the select few that excels in the very long races and it is certainly no coincidence that in 2013 he finished on the podium in all the hilly one-day races with a distance of more than 250km: Amstel Gold Race, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the world championships, and Il Lombardia. Being even stronger than he was one year ago, it would be a massive surprise if the doesn't end up on the podium.

 

Valverde's biggest asset is his fast sprint as he can allow himself to ride the race conservatively. The finish in Ans suits him down to the ground and it takes a very strong rider to beat him there. He doesn't need to animate the race on the Roche-aux-Faucons and Saint-Nicolas and can let it all come down to a final dash to the line. On these short climbs, it is hard to imagine than anyone will be strong enough to drop Valverde and with his fast sprint, he must be the man to beat.

 

Valverde's main disadvantage may be his team. After his win in Fleche Wallonne, he is now the obvious favourite to win the race and he will be expected to take a lot of responsibility. On paper, he has strong support but several key riders are not at their best. Ion Izagirre and Benat Intxausti are not at the level one would have expected and John Gadret is clearly not firing on all cylinders either. Jose Herrada has been riding really well but this race may be a bit too hard for the Spanish champion. Gorka Izagirre will be his key domestique but as it has been the case in the previous races as well, he could easily find himself isolated rather early. This could make it difficult between Roche-aux-Faucons and Saint-Nicolas if he finds himself in a small group of favourites where he will have to cover attacks himself. Valverde is certainly not known for doing too much work on his own in that kind of finales - just recall how he refused to assist in the chase of Gilbert in Amstel - and the most obvious danger to a third Valverde win in Liege could very well be team tactics.

 

It may be risky business to put a rider with a bruised rib up there as Valverde's biggest rival but one of the riders that has the skills to actually drop Valverde is Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spaniard may have taken most of his victories in the grand tours but when he turned professional, he was actually a one-day race. He only turned his attention to the GC in grand tours later in his career and first marked himself out as a great rider in the classics. In fact, that aspect is also reflected in his assessment of the races as he puts a win at Liege-Bastogne-Liege on the top of his wish list.

 

He may be preparing for the Giro d'Italia but when he arrived in Belgium for the Ardennes classics, he made it clear that the hilly one-day races are certainly no warm-up events. In fact, he regards Liege-Bastogne-Liege as the biggest goal of his season and despite his injuries, he will go all out on Sunday. With the Ardennes, the Giro and the Vuelta, he has a heavy racing schedule, and this year he has done limited racing to stay fresh but there is no reason to suggest that he is not firing on all cylinders. When he last raced at the Volta a Catalunya, he even beat Chris Froome and a reborn Alberto Contador to win his home race overall. Since then he has been preparing himself at altitude and nowadays the tiny Spaniard rarely is a master in timing his condition.

 

We have no doubt that Rodriguez has the form to win the race but his injury of course raises some questions. Due to another crash, we were denied the chance to see what he could do on the Mur de Huy but afterwards he said that he was in a lot of pain and wouldn't have been in contention for the win as he was riding in support of his teammate and friend Daniel Moreno. The situation, however, is not too different from the one he faced 12 months ago. Back then, he had also crashed in the Dutch classic and was clearly below his usual level at Fleche Wallonne. Nonetheless, he bounced back with a 2nd place in Liege and had it not been for an extraordinary Dan Martin, he would have won that race. He didn't really hit the deck in Wednesday's race and that incident will have no impact on his condition. His Katusha team have sent out positive signals and we expect Rodriguez to be back in contention when the race heats up on Sunday.

 

On these short, steep climbs, no one is as punchy as Rodriguez and he is probably the one who has the biggest chance of going solo on Saint-Nicolas. Due to his pure time trialing skills, he will probably not launch his decisive move already on Roche-aux-Faucons but save himself for the final climb. Last year he even proved that he has the chance to drop his rivals on the final rise to Ans and it is certainly not impossible for him to do so again in 2014. Due to his lack of sprinting skills, he most likely has to be on his own by the time he takes the final turn onto the finishing straight.

 

This yeas last year's winner Daniel Martin has not raced a lot and so his condition was somewhat of a question when he arrived in the Ardennes. He had just completed his first ever high-altitude training camp to prepare for the Giro and was a bit unsure how his body would react. With the Giro being the major goal, he admitted to not being as strong as he was 12 months ago but he claimed to be feeling surprisingly well on the bike.

 

With Fleche and Liege being his two big goals this week, he abandoned the Amstel Gold Race when he felt a niggling knee pain but last Wednesday he proved himself right when he claimed to be in great condition. He produced a fabulous ride on the Mur de Huy and had it not been for Valverde, he would easily have won that race.

 

What makes his performance on the Mur even more remarkable is the fact that he was very badly positioned at the bottom. Everybody knows that positioning is crucial in the finale of Fleche Wallonne and that positioning is key to any kind of success. Afterwards, Philippe Gilbert wrote his disappointing performance down to a poor position but in fact Martin was in a much worse place when they hit the climb. He had to make a big acceleration to get back to the front - passing Gilbert in the process - and still had the power to produce another attack near the top that allowed him to take second.

 

In the past, Martin was often regarded as a big climbing talent but in fact he is more of a punchy rider who will probably have a lot more success in the one-day races than in the GCs of the stage races. His main asset in the classics is his ability to excel over long distances and he only gets better in those hard races of attrition. Last year he won Liege and would have finished on the podium in Lombardy if he had not crashed in the final turn. This year he seems to be even stronger and this makes him an obvious winner candidate.

 

Martin has a very good sprint but is obviously not as fast as Valverde and so needs to get rid of the Spaniard before the final turn. At Fleche, Valverde was the strongest but when it is less about punch and more about endurance, Martin should have a better chance. If he arrives at the finish with just about anyone of the other key contenders, he will be the fastest. Last year he proved that he can win the biggest races and being seemingly even stronger now, he can certainly do it again.

 

Being the winner of Amstel Gold Race, Philippe Gilbert obviously belongs to the list of contenders but this time he is not one of the top favourites. Even though Liege is his favourite race, it is also the Ardennes classic that suits him the least. In 2011 when he was virtually unbeatable, he was not strong enough to drop the Schleck brothers in Liege and only won the race due to his superior sprinting skills. This year he finds himself up against rivals that are both stronger than the Schlecks in this kind of terrain and obviously a lot faster. This makes the task a lot harder for Gilbert.

 

The short climbs in the Amstel Gold Race suit Gilbert perfectly and when on form he is unrivalled in that kind of terrain. In Liege, however, it's more about climbing skills and while Martin, Rodriguez and Valverde are all climbers, Gilbert is a puncheur. The climbs are simply a bit too long for him to really excel and at the end of such a long, hard race, he loses much of the explosiveness that makes him a formidable contender in most hilly races. It is no coincidence that he has had a harder time in Liege in his troubled 2012 and 2013 campaigns.

 

At the same time, Gilbert is not as strong as he was in 2011. His Amstel performance certainly proves that he is stronger than he has been in these races since that magic year but Fleche Wallonne proved his limitations. He wrote his poor performance down to bad positioning but also admitted that his position was a result of the hard pace that had put him on his limit. Furthermore, Martin was a in a lot worse position than Gilbert and still managed to take second.

 

Nonetheless, Gilbert has a chance to win the race. He is obviously in great condition and he has won this race before. If he is still in contention on the final rise in Ans, he will be a danger man as the finish suits him really well. He is faster than most of his rivals and so has a massive advantage. On the other hand, Valverde has often proved that he is the fastest of the pair and so he needs to drop the Movistar captain before the finish. In Liege, we doubt that he is strong enough to do that.

 

Vincenzo Nibali may not have shown any kind of form so far this year but don't be surprised to see him at the pointy end of Liege-Bastogne-Liege. His lack of results comes as no surprise to himself as his springs season has been all about Liege. He has prepared his Ardennes campaign carefully on Mount Teide and has used the first two Ardennes classics to prepare for Sunday's big target.

 

It is hard to gauge just how strong Nibali is. In the Amstel Gold Race, his Astana team was riding for Enrico Gasparotto who is much more suited to the shorter climbs and so Nibali had a free role where he tried to make a few attacks in the finale. He was obviously targeting a result at Fleche Wallonne but was not strong enough to make it into the top. However, it would be risky to put too much emphasis on his performance in a finish that doesn't suit him. In fact, he has never excelled on those short, steep climbs. Even in last year's Vuelta where he was obviously riding really well, he struggled massively in the finish in Valdepenas de Jaen which is very similar to the one on the Mur de Huy.

 

In 2012, Nibali was in a very similar position. That year Liege was also his big target and even though he had shown very little form in the first two Ardennes classics, he dropped all his rivals on the Roche-aux-Faucons. Only an outstanding Maxim Iglinskiy and fading legs prevented him from winning the race but he still held onto second.

 

It would be no surprise if Nibali repeats that performance in 2014 but compared to the major favourites, he is disadvantaged. As a poor sprinter, he has to arrive at the finish on his own and he simply needs to be the strongest rider. Everybody knows that he will attack on the Roche-aux-Faucons if he has the legs to do so and so he will be a heavily marked man. At the same time, these shorter climbs suit some of his rivals a lot more. In the past, however, he has proved that he can drop everybody in this terrain and everybody knows how strong he is when he is at his best. Strength counts for a lot in Liege and even though the odds are against him, Nibali will be a danger man.

 

The big dark horse in this race is Chris Froome. The Brit has never excelled in one-day races but he has done nothing to hide his desire to perform well in the hilly classics. Last year he gave the world championships a dedicated shot and was also on the start line in Liege. This year he is back at La Doyenne and even though he is not an obvious favourite, he is definitely a rider to watch.

 

Of course Froome's level of form is a bit uncertain after a back injury saw him miss Tirreno-Adriatico and he was clearly not at his best when he returned at the Volta a Catalunya. Since then, however, he has had a seamless preparation for his next block of racing and he should no longer suffer any effects from his setback. At the same time, he is one of those riders that doesn't need any kind of racing to turn up in top condition as he can train himself into form. Last year he did so at this time of the year when he didn't do any races between the Criterium International and Liege and even though he failed in the Belgian classic, he crushed the opposition just two days later in the Tour de Romandie.

 

Last year's easier course didn't suit Froome and this may be a big part of the explanation for his below-par showing. This year's harder route should suit him much better and in a race of attrition he will be a danger man. By winning last year's Tour de France stage to Mount Ventoux, he has proved that he can do the long distance and at his best he is obviously the best climber in the world. These short climbs are of course not his real forte but in fact he has a rather solid punch. He has a decent sprint but against most of the key contenders he is obviously beaten and like Nibali, he will have to arrive at the finish on his own. If he is in peak condition, however, it would be no surprise to see him drop everybody else on the Roche-aux-Faucons and then time trial his way to a solo win in Liege.

 

One of the most consistent riders in the Ardennes classics is Bauke Mollema. In fact the Dutchman has finished in the top 10 in 7 of the last 8 races in the series as he only missed out in last year's edition of Liege. This year he seems to be riding stronger than ever after seventh at Amstel and fourth at Fleche and he was very close to  podium spot on the Mur de Huy.

 

Even though he failed in last year's edition of La Doyenne, Liege-Bastogne-Liege is the race that suits him the best. As a climber who has proved that he can handle the longer distances, the harder nature of the course suits him well. He is also a rather punchy rather with a very fast sprint and so has all the characteristics to excel in this race.

 

Even though he is fast, however, he is not as fast as the likes of Valverde and Gilbert and so he will have to get rid of them before the line. He may be riding well but it will be hard for him to drop Valverde but he may benefit from the tactical battle to win the race. If the favourites are unable to drop each other and Mollema is still there, he will be less of a marked man. This could give him the room to take off and he is obviously strong enough to finish it off.

 

When it comes to consistency, Michal Kwiatkowski is only beaten by Valverde in this year's Ardennes races and his 5th place in Amstel and 3rd place in Fleche certainly proves that he is in great condition. His performances in the spring - most notably at the Strade Bianche and Vuelta al Pais Vasco - prove that he is a lot stronger than he was one year ago where he also finished in the top 5 in the first two classics. Back then, however, he was unable to make it three in a row as he finished far off the mark in Liege.

 

That is certainly no coincidence. Even though he has been riding really well this year, it has also been evidenced that he still lacks a bit when the climbing becomes really tough. He struggled at Tirreno-Adriatico and in the Basque Country, he had a hard time in the queen stage. At this point of his career, there is a big chance that Liege is still a bit too tough for Kwiatkowski and this means that he is not the same kind of contender as he was in the first two races.

 

On the other hand, his main weaknesses are the really long climbs and he won't find any of those in Liege. The short ascents suit him really well and he is an excellent sprinter that can beat all of them in a final dash to the line. Individually, the climbs are not too tough for him but the question is whether the combination of them and the long distance make it too tough for the versatile Pole.

 

World champion Rui Costa has made the Ardennes classics his first big target of the year but so far he has flown a bit under the radar. However, he was actually riding solidly at Amstel Gold Race where he was in the top 10 at the top of the Cauberg and only narrowly missed out on joining the group that sprinted for sixth. In Fleche Wallonne, he was riding really well but when his teammate Damiano Cunego broke his wheel 3km from the finish, his race was ruined.

 

Liege has always been his big target and it is clearly the race that suits him the best. Last year he finished in the top 10 despite working for Valverde and having been set back by a crash in Paris-Nice, and if anyone needs a reminder about how strong he is in long, hard races, they just have to recall what happened in Florence last September. As a successful stage hunter in the Tour de France, he knows how to perform on the day that matters.

 

Costa suffers a bit on the very long climb but the distance and the nature of the Liege climbs suit him well and he is a fast finisher as well. Of course he will have to drop the likes of Valverde and Gilbert and it will be hard for him to get rid of the latter. However, he is a very wise rider who knows how to time his attacks and if anyone benefits from team tactics in the finale, Costa could very well be the man.

 

Michele Scarponi has flown a bit under the radar as he has not done any of the Ardennes classics so far. As usual, he has been preparing the Giro d'Italia at the Giro del Trentino and like last year he will arrive in Belgium just for Liege-Bastogne-Liege. That will make him less of a marked man but it would be unwise not to look out for him in Sunday's race.

 

Scarponi didn't exactly put the world on fire in Trentino but that may not be indicative for his performance in Liege. One year ago he performed even worse in Liege but by the time he lined up in Liege, he was firing on all guns. In fact he was probably one of the three best riders in the race and when the key selection was forced on Saint-Nicolas, he even seemed to be the best of them all

 

He always arrives in Trentino straight from a high-altitude training camp and usually needs the stage race to get his legs up to racing speed. With a four days of hard racing in his legs, however, he will be ready to go in Liege. Combining forces with Nibali, he is part of a very strong Astana team that also contains an in-form Jakob Fuglsang and perennial Liege top 10 finisher Enrico Gasparotto. While the latter will save himself for the sprint, his three teammates will go on the attack. Scarponi will be less marked than Nibali but it will be dangerous to underestimate a rider that has just become stronger and stronger in the one-day races over the last few years.

 

It has been a pleasure to see Jelle Vanendert to return to his best form in the Ardennes after an injury- and illness plagued 2013 season. So far the Belgian has been one of the strongest rider in the series. Last Sunday he was the best of the rest behind Gilbert, Kwiatkowski, Valverde and Simon Gerrans in a finish that didn't suit him well and he used wise tactics to take second. Despite racing with an injured knee, he took sixth at Fleche Wallonne and he could maybe have done a little better if he had not hit out too early.

 

Liege is probably the race that suits him the best and he has finished in the top 10 in the past. His knee injury is an obvious question mark but it didn't hamper him in Fleche Wallonne. He is obviously up there with the best on the climbs but has no fast sprint and so needs to arrive alone at the finish. In Amstel, however, he proved how to use tactics to take second and as he will be less marked than many of his rivals, it is certainly not impossible for Vanendert to attack in the finale.

 

Finally, we will point to Damiano Cunego. In the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, the Italian proved that he had returned to form and expectations for him in the Ardennes were high. He had a disappointing performance last Sunday and honestly we had written him off for Fleche Wallonne. In that race, however, he seemed to be riding extremely well and was apparently at ease on the climbs. Only the unfortunate crash in the end denied him the chance to see how far he could get in the uphill sprint on the Mur.

 

If he has indeed returned to form, Cunego is an obvious candidate in Liege. He has finished on the podium before and as a triple Lombardy winner, former Amstel champion and Worlds runner-up, he can obviously handle the distance. He is part of one of the strongest teams in the race and even though Diego Ulissi may still be struggling a bit in the very long races, he should at least have Costa for company in the finale. Those two can take turns attacking and if one of them proves successful, Cunego may return to glory in Liege.

 

***** Alejandro Valverde

**** Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin

*** Philippe Gilbert, Vincenzo Nibali, Chris Froome

** Bauke Mollema, Michal Kwiatkowski, Rui Costa, Michele Scarponi, Jelle Vanendert, Damiano Cunego

* Roman Kreuziger, Simon Gerrans, Enrico Gasparotto, Bjorn Leukemans, Mathias Frank, Daniel Moreno, Jakob Fuglsang, Przemyslaw Niemiec, Thomas Voeckler, Richie Porte, Frank Schleck, Romain Bardet,

Domenico Pozzovivo, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Diego Ulissi, Wout Poels, Fabio Duarte, Warren Barguil, Ryder Hesjedal