Riis and Saxo

The last few years have not been kind to Bjarne Riis. Consecutive doping allegations, disastrous results, a super-star who has not been super, and a fight for survival within the World Tour, have all provided the notorious manager’s bald head with an almost invisible coating of smooth grey hairs. Despite it all he seemingly fights on, and Saxo looks as ready as ever for the 2014 season.

Neither Tyler Hamilton, Michael Rasmussen, nor Mr. Oleg Tinkov have been able to seriously threaten Riis or his team. Nonetheless, Saxo and Riis 2014 do not resemble their 2013 versions.

The budget of Saxo has been cut significantly, and its economic foundation is definitely not what it used to be. No doubt due to Tinkov’s dramatic (at least on Twitter) leave.

But how bad is it really?

According to Danish tabloid BT not that bad. The net loss from Tinkov’s departure is not the c. €8 million, but rather half the amount. Saxobank CEO Lars Seier Christensen helped Riis out with an additional (and approximate) €1.5-2 million extra, and chose the path of being sole main sponsor.

Contador accepted a significant pay cut (according to BT close to €500,000 per year), and both Tristan Hoffmann and Dan Frost have resigned. The team roster is currently on 18 riders, and it is doubtful if they are going to (or willing to) sign as many riders as they have had the last couple of years. With fewer riders there will also be less need for mechanics, massage therapists and other specialist personnel. Additionally it is rumored that Saxo will cut down on race participation.

Net result: A lean team, which is certainly still capable of competing against the best.

The doping allegations

Although Riis has been under heavy fire from several angles (Hamilton and the Chicken amongst the heavy-hitters), the bottom line of it all is that even with everything being true, it is so long ago (plus eight years) that current UCI regulations does not allow for legal action. This is equally valid for the allegations towards Riis, but also for former rider Frank Høj, and current Saxo rider Nicki Sørensen.

However, Danish Anti-Doping authorities are currently investigating all the claims by Rasmussen, and they have hinted that they are working towards legislative measures, that might change the statute of limitation. This would be one of few scenarios that would leave Riis out for good.

Riis is backed by a number of former riders and specialists (Christian Vande Velde, Ivan Basso, Bobby Julich, Bo Hamburger, David Zabriskie and Eufemiano Funtes – hrmm?) who claim that they have no knowledge of, and have never witnessed, any kind of doping on his team. Numerous others claim that they have witnessed systematic doping within Riis’ former teams (Tyler Hamilton, Michael Rasmussen, & Jörg Jaksche). Most likely it is the ladder three who tell the truth, but the overall picture is still muddied.

Net result: A Riis and a team, who are perhaps tainted by the allegations, but hitherto legally white as snow.

End result

Bjarne Riis and Saxo look poised for another season, where results can only improve, and where a seemingly successful navigation through the doping maelstroem could leave the current turmoil behind (at least legally). On paper the team is stronger than the last couple of seasons, and the right results could ensure a second main sponsor, and future financial stability.

The real question is how determined Bjarne Riis is, and if he is indeed a man with a long-term plan.

He has given most of his life to cycling, and if he feels misunderstood, underappreciated, and mistreated, he may just leave it all behind (as the current rumors about a Tinkov takeover might or might not reflect).

In the end, the overall decision may not be decided by Rasmussen’s evidence, the UCI, or WADA, but rather by the actions, dedication and trust of cycling’s fans. If they continue to support Riis and Saxo, he and his team might continue for years on end. After all, who wants to work if they are not appreciated?

If we had to get rid of every single person in cycling who are as tainted as Riis, it would likely create a managerial vacuum, as well as a lack of riders under 28 years of age. Until now it sounds unfeasible, but contrition, and a truth and reconciliation process could of course turn it all around.

Forgive the sins of the past, or rid cycling of its miscreants? Each to his or her own.

But should there be the tiniest hint of recent doping abuse response should of course be swift and decisive.

Confused? Rest assured that you are not the only one…