While most European countries use their national championships as an important pre-Tour de France event, things are different in Australia and New Zealand that have no other choice but to hold their events in January at a time when the main stars are not in their optimal condition. With the Tour Down Under coming up in just a few weeks, however, the races get plenty of attention as the perfect warm-up events for the first WorldTour race of the year.

 

National Championships are always a strange affair. In some countries, teams can field teams of more than 20 riders while others find themselves without any teammates. At the same time, the fields are usually much smaller than in a normal road race and it creates a strange kind of racing. At the same time, they belong to a group of select events that offer the honour of wearing a distinctive jersey for an entire year and that turns them into extremely prestigious affairs.

 

Most European countries have the luxury of hosting their events one week before the start of the Tour de France, meaning that their races are highly competitive as most riders are close to their peak form at that time of the year. It’s not the same for countries in other continents. Due to the huge amount of travelling, it’s impossible to ask their riders to return to their home countries so close to the start of the biggest event of the year and that forces them to schedule their national championships at other times of the year. The US have their national championships in May while some African countries and Colombia are among the countries to hold their events in February.

 

Due to the huge time differences, New Zealand and Australia have the most difficult scheduling issues and they have no other choice than to put on their National Championships during their summer in January. Of course it means that most of their top riders are not in peak condition and many of their stars even skip the events. Michael Matthews would be a natural favourite in Australia but he remains in Europe during the winter and will not return home for the race. Even defending champion Heinrich Haussler has decided to skip the title race in Australia.

 

Nonetheless, the races get a lot of attention. Since the middle of October, cycling fans all over the world have been waiting desperately for the pro riders to be back in action and the national championships in Australia and New Zealand mark the start of the new season. If the races had been held at almost every other time of the year, they would barely have been noticed at all but now they stand out as major highlights. The fields may not be as competitive as the races deserve, but the events stand out at a time when not much happens in the cycling world.

 

At the same time, the Australian summer schedule has grown significantly in recent years. The Tour Down Under is the first WorldTour race of the years and is now followed by UCI racing at the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race and the Jayco Herald Sun Tour. This has created a solid block of races in the Southern Hemisphere that is worth targeting for the local riders. More and more Antipodeans aim to hit the ground running and the racing is getting more and more competitive as more races are added to the calendar.

 

The Mitchelton Bay Cycling Classic which is a series of four criteriums, offers a chance to get the legs going but the national championships are the first real hit-out for the riders that are targeting success at the Tour Down Under. While the Australians and Kiwis are at a disadvantage in the build-up for the Tour de France when there is no racing for two weeks before the event, they are favoured for the Tour Down Under as they have a chance to do a time trial and a road race before the WorldTour race – an opportunity that doesn’t exist for the Europeans. As they have also had much better training conditions in the nice Australian weather and don’t have to deal with jet lag, they have a significant advantage for the opening of the finest calendar. A few years ago, Europeans were allowed to line up for the Australian road race but that opportunity has now been taken away.

 

New Zealand and Australia both offer time trials and road races and the latter country even kicks things off with a national criterium on Wednesday. Some of the WorldTour riders line up for the latter event but it is mostly an affair for the domestic team. The real racing starts on Thursday when the best time triallists battle it out for the Australian title in the TT, with the best Kiwi tackling their race against the clock 24 hours later. Both road races end a busy week of racing when the national champion’s jerseys are handed out on Sunday.

 

Last year Heinrich Haussler claimed his first Australian road race title when he won the sprint from a 7-rider group. The IAM rider had anticipated pre-race favourites Cadel Evans and Richie Porte who failed to make a difference on the Mount Buninyoung but found himself with a massive task in the sprint as he was up against and in-form Caleb Ewan. He managed to beat the youngster who had to settle for second while Neil van der Ploeg earned himself a spot on the national team for the Tour Down Under by taking third. In New Zealand, Joe Cooper finished off an impressive Avanti showing by beating his teammate Tom Davison in a two-rider sprint before Jason Christie rolled across the line in third to make it a clean sweep of the podium for the big home team.

 

The course

Australia:

After a few years in the nearby city of Ballarat, the road race championships were moved to Buninyoung for the 2010 edition and has been held there ever since. While the course for the time trial has been changed on numerous occasions to favour different riders, the same 10.2km circuit has been the venue of the road race every year since then and it will not be any different in 2016. In 2010, 2011 and 2012, the riders did 16 laps of the circuit while the dynamics were changed in 2013 when the riders did a flatter opening part before they hit the circuit. In the past two years, the riders have done 18 laps of the circuit for an overall distance of 183.6km and it will be the same in 2016.

 

The circuit is pretty simple. Shortly after the finish line, the riders turn left onto the famous Mt. Buninyoung. It’s just 1.1kmlong but just gets steeper and steeper, reaching almost 10% near the summit. Then the road levels out and there is a dip and a fast left hand turn onto Yankee Flat road, a 1.2 kilometre stretch of flat road. It leads to the descent. There’s a tight right-hand turn at the bottom of the dip but the descent is fast and twisting. A 90-degree turn to the left leads the riders onto Geelong road and once again they are headed downward on a wide avenus with a few curves. It is just 1.4km until the riders get to the finish and the road is slightly descending all the way to the line.

 

 

 

New Zealand:

After five years in Christchurch, the National Championships have been moved to the city of Napier where the riders will tackle a new course. At 168km, it is shorter than usual but it provides a significant amount of climbing and a flat finish.

 

The race can be split into two parts: an opening section that includes two circuits in the rural area on the western outskirts of the host city and a final section that is made up of laps of two different circuits in the city. The riders will first tackle the same 55km circuit as the women. The first part is mainly flat with just a few smaller climbs but at the 25km mark, the riders face a major ascent that takes them to 233m above sea level. After the descent, they will deviate from the women’s circuit as they will do a lap of a 26km circuit that includes the main climb for a second time. After the descent, they will travel the final 20 flat kilometres back to the city.

 

The riders will now enter the 10.3km finishing circuit. It is mainly flat but includes the short climb up Spencer Road that brings the riders from 0m to 74m above sea level. The summit is located just four kilometres from the finish and in this section there’s another small climb. The riders will first do around 4km of the circuit before they get to the finish for the first time and then seven full laps are on the menu. After the completion of the final lap, they will do one lap of a final 13km circuit that is completely flat.

 

 

 

The favourites

Australia:

As the course in Buninyoung has been used several times in a row, everybody knows what to expect and all the main contenders have tested it in racing conditions in the past. History shows that it is usually too hard for the pure sprinters and that the punchy climbers are usually able to make a difference the final time up Mt. Buninyoung. In the past, the race has often been decided by a select group of favourites that have gone clear on the ascent and so the race is perfectly suited to Ardennes specialists with a fast sprint.

 

However, national championships are always a very special affair. Some teams have a huge number of riders at the start and can largely dictate the outcome while some of the favourites are often without any teammates and can do nothing to influence the tactics. That has often created surprise outcomes and uif the major teams are satisfied with the composition of the early break, it is definitely possible for an early move to stay clear. That’s what happened in 2015 when Orica-GreenEDGE were without perennial favourite Simon Gerrans who was injured, and had to rely on alternative tactics. Instead, they sent Caleb Ewan up the road and when pre-race favourites Cadel Evans and Richie Porte were unable to make a difference on the climb, the move stayed a win, with Heinrich Haussler beating Ewan in the sprint. It was a similar outcome in 2013 when Orica-GreenEDGE had Luke Durbridge in an early break and were pleased to see their TT specialist ride away with a solo win.

 

Of course much of the race depends on how Orica-GreenEDGE approach the race. With only 9 riders at the start, however, they have their smallest contingent since they were created. Furthermore, they have lost key riders Simon Clarke and Cameron Meyer who have usually been very important as the final riders to set up Simon Gerrans in the finale and even though they again go into the race with Gerrans as the obvious favourite, they aren’t as strong as they have been previously.

 

Nonetheless, their nine riders mean that they have strength in numbers, with Drapac being the only other pro team with a sizeable roster. Most of the remaining pro riders find themselves without any team support, with just the three-rider team from Dimension Data and the Porte-Dennis and von Hoff-O’Shea duos from BMC and ONE respectively being the only other multi-rider pro teams. Below you can find a list of pro riders in the field:

 

BMC: Richie Porte, Rohan Dennis

Orica-GreenEDGE: Caleb Ewan, Simon Gerrans, Luke Durbridge, Damien Howson, Mitchell Docker, Jack Haig, Alex Edmondson, Mathew Hayman, Michael Hepburn

Cannondale: Simon Clarke

Lotto Soudal: Adam Hansen

Drapac: Samuel Spokes, Travis Meyer, Lachlan Norris, Nathan Earle, Brendan Canty, Jordan Kerby, Brenton Jones, Adam Phelan, Timothy Roe, William Clarke, Bernard Sulzberger, Graeme Brown,

Trek: Jack Bobridge

Dimension Data: Cameron Meyer, Nathan Haas, Mark Renshaw

IAM: Leigh Howard

Unitedhealthcare: Jonathan Clarke

ONE: Steele von Hoff, Glenn O’Shea

Tinkoff: Jay McCarthy

 

Much will depend on how Orica-GreenEDGE will approach the race. Sports director Matt White has done nothing to hide that it is again all for Gerrans. The double champions has won on this course twice and with his punchy climbing skills and his fast sprint he has all the attributes to do well. Furthermore, he has proved to be hugely reliable at this time of the season and he knows how to time his condition to perfection.

 

Gerrans had a terrible 2015 season and it remains to be seen whether he is able to return to his former level. However, his top 10 at the World Championships indicate that he is still highly competitive and he doesn’t need to be in his Liege-winning form to win this kind of event. If anything, his lack of racing in 2015 has probably provided him with more motivation for the winter training and he will probably come out with all guns blazing.

 

This means that Orica-GreenEDGE will probably try to set Gerrans up for an attack on the final climb. History shows that they have traditionally had a rider in the early break too but as only Jack Haig is the only other climber in the team, it is unlikely that they will be confident in their early attacker. Hence, they will probably have a defensive approach to the race and it will all revolve around Gerrans.

 

Caleb Ewan will provide the team with a back-up plan. The talented sprinter won three out of four races at the Bay Crits and took a dominant win in the criterium on Wednesday. He is obviously in very good form and he has proved that Mt. Buninyoung is not too hard for him. Last year he surprised everybody by being one of the strongest in the early break that decided they race and it was only a surprisingly good sprint from Heinrich Haussler that denied him a maiden title.

 

This year he is unlikely to have a similarly aggressive approach and he will probably be the Orica-GreenEDGE plan B. If Gerrans is unable to make a difference on the climb or there is no cooperation in the group that will go clear, it could come down to a sprint from a bigger group. Of course Ewan won’t be able to follow the best climbers but he should be strong enough to stay in the first bigger group. If it comes down to a sprint, it is hard to imagine that anybody will be able to beat him.

 

For Ewan, the weather will play a key role. He is definitely able to handle the brutal heat but the wind direction is crucial. He has openly admitted that he is unlikely to have a chance if it will be a tailwind on the climb and so he will be disappointed to learn that the wind will change in the morning. While the U23 riders will have a headwind on the climb, there will be a tailwind for the elite men’s race. This will make it much harder for the sprinters to stay in contention and makes it more likely that a small group with the best climbers will decide the race.

 

Hence, we will put out money on Gerrans to win the race. It is hard to imagine that anyone will be able to drop him on this kind of short climb. Richie Porte is probably the only rider who can realistically hope to do so, but he is far from his best condition and aims for a slower start to the season. Rohan Dennis is not at his best either as he has his eyes on Rio. Gerrans may not be able to drop everybody either but if it comes down to a sprint from a small group, it is very hard to imagine that anyone will be able to beat Gerrans in a sprint.

 

That doesn’t mean that it will be easy for Gerrans. As said, the Orica-GreenEDGE team is not as strong as usual. In the past, Cameron Meyer has played a key role in keeping things together for a small sprint in the finale but this year Gerrans could easily be isolated. If he is up against two riders from teams like Dimension Data and BMC, it will be hard for him to control things. Jack Haig is the key rider as he has the skills to follow the best but it remains to be seen whether the neo-pro is strong enough to play a key role in the finale of the elite race. Nonetheless, Gerrans has to be the favourite as he can win the race from almost every scenario – even from a bunch sprint if Ewan has not made the selection.

 

His biggest rivals could come from Dimension Data. The South African team will have three starters in the race. The course is too hard for Mark Renshaw but Cameron Meyer and Nathan Haas both have the skills to do well here. Both are aiming for a good result in the Tour Down Under and can be expected to be in great condition. If they can both survive the final climb, they will have cards to play and it will be hard for Gerrans to respond to their attacks. Both are often strong at this time of the year and both can come away with the win. However, Haas is the fastest of the pair and could even have a chance in a sprint against Gerrans, making him their best option. On the other hand, Meyer is a great time triallist who will be hard to catch if he gets clear in the finale.

 

On paper, the BMC pair of Richie Porte and Rohan Dennis is extremely dangerous but none of them are in their best condition. Nonetheless, they made it a BMC 1-2 in the time trial so they will definitely be able to influence the race. They are unlikely to be good enough to make solo moves on the final climb but they are both likely to make it into any select group that gets clear over the top. Everybody knows that they will be hard to catch if they attack in the finale, and Gerrans will have to be on his toes. Dennis seems to be in better condition than Porte and will probably be the best card as he is also faster in a sprint. Porte has to arrive solo at the finish to win the race.

 

For the first time ever, Simon Clarke will be allowed to play his own card in this race which obviously suits him extremely well. He is set to lead his new Cannondale team at the Tour Down Under and so he is probably in very good condition. As an Ardennes specialist, he should be able to do well here and he is fast in a sprint which will give him options. His main disadvantage is the fact that he won’t have any teammates at his side but if he can make the selection in the finale, it won’t make much of a difference. He is unlikely to beat Gerrans in a sprint but if he can use the tactical game to get rid of the pre-race favourite, he has a solid chance.

 

The same goes for Jay McCarthy. He has had a hard time in his first years at the pro level but now it seems that he is coming of age. 2016 could be a bit of a breakthrough season and he is aiming for a good showing at the Tour Down Under. He has the punchy climbing skills and the fast sprint to do well here. It still remains to be seen whether he is already good enough to follow the best on the climbs but we won’t be surprised if he is there. In that case, he could benefit from the tactical game to come away with the win.

 

Adam Hansen is another lone entrant and he will be dangerous as he is usually strong at this time of the year. Until now he has never been able to follow the best on the climbs as he misses the explosiveness but he has not been far off. History shows that he knows how to time an attack in the finale and he won’t be easy to catch if he can benefit from the game of cat and mouse in the finale.

 

Drapac have lots of riders at the start but they have no obvious favourite. Their best cards are probably Nathan Earle and Lachlan Norris who have the climbing skills to be there in the finale. Earle is even fast in a sprint too but he needs to show that he can rediscover the legs he had before his ill-fated move to Sky. In the Tour of Utah, Norris proved that he has the tactical astuteness to attack in the finale and if they are both there, Drapac will have options.

 

Finally, Steele von Hoff deserves a mention. He is probably the only rider that can realistically beat Ewan in a sprint. He won’t be good enough to follow the best on the final climb but he has never been too far off the mark and has often been in the top 10. He is still waiting for the year in which a bigger group will sprint for the win and hopes that 2016 is when things will finally pan out the way he wants.

 

***** Simon Gerrans

**** Nathan Haas, Rohan Dennis

*** Caleb Ewan, Cameron Meyer, Simon Clarke, Jay McCarthy, Richie Porte

** Adam Hansen, Nathan Earle, Lachlan Norris, Steele von Hoff

* Jack Bobridge, Brendan Canty, Luke Durbridge, Jack Haig, Bernard Sulzberger, Timothy Roe, Adam Phelan, Leigh Howard, Jonathan Clarke, Neil van der Ploeg, Ben Dyball, Sam Spokes, Sean Lake, Robbie Hucker, Mark O’Brien, Jai Crawford, Wes Sulzberger

 

New Zealand:

Unlike the Australians, the Kiwis find themselves in untested territory on a new course in Napier. Much has been said about what can be expected but it seems that the general consensus is that it is much harder than it looks on paper. The huge amount of climbing means that it will probably be a very selective race where only some of the best climbers will have a chance.

 

Last year Avanti completely dominated the race as they made it a clean sweep of the podium and the local team will again have the benefit of strength in numbers. However, with tactics set to play a less important role, the WorldTour riders that are all isolated, should have a bigger chance to let the legs do the talking. Furthermore, Avanti will only have five riders at the start and it will be harder for them to dominate proceedings.

 

Instead, ONE Pro Cycling could turn out to be the strongest team. The British pro continental team will go into the race with three riders and even though they have less riders than Avanti, they could turn out to have more riders in the finale of this kind of very hard race. It should create an interesting scenario where those two teams will try to control things and benefit from their strength in numbers while Patrick Bevin, Jesse Sergent, Greg Henderson, Sam Bewley and Tom Scully will have to do things alone.

 

He may be alone but it is hard not to put Patrick Bevin on top of the list of favourites. The former Avanti rider lost out due to team tactics 12 months ago but this year he won’t have to take teammates into account. Of course that’s a disadvantage but on this kind of course, the legs should do the talking. If the selection is made pretty early, team support will play less of a role and this should benefit Bevin. He is not known as a TT specialist but he still managed to crush the opposition in the time trial. This indicates that he is in red-hot condition as he prepares to be one of the Cannondale leaders in the Tour Down Under. At the same time, he is perfectly suited to this kind of punchy course and with his fast sprint, he can win from every possible scenario.

 

As said, ONE Pro Cycling is likely to be the strongest team in the race and their best card is probably Dion Smith. Riding for the Hincapie team, he was fifth in last year’s Tour of Alberta and 15th in the USA Pro Challenge, proving that he has the climbing skills to do well on this course. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint as he regularly mixes it up in bunch sprints. He is likely to have teammates in the finale which will be a huge advantage. He can both make a late solo move and has a chance to beat Bevin in a sprint.

 

The best Avanti card is defending champion Joseph Cooper. His third place in the time trial indicates that he is in very good condition and he has the benefit of a strong team support him. He is a solid climber and should be able to make the selection in the finale. However, he is not as fast as Bevin and Smith and will have to get rid of that pair to win the race.

 

The other two ONE riders are James Oram and Hayden McCormick. Both are huge talents and solid climbers and should be able to do well on this course. Oram did a solid time trial and McCormick won the U23 TT so both are in good condition. Oram clearly has the better results of the pair and is also a better climber. If they can both make it into the finale alongside Smith, they can use team tactics to win the race.

 

The most accomplished rider in the peloton is Greg Henderson who has never won the title. This year he aims to fill that gap in his palmares in what could be his final pro season. He claims to be in good condition for the race and he won’t be easy to beat in a sprint. However, he doesn’t have any teammates at his side and it seems that the course could be a bit too tough for him.

 

Another lone WorldTour rider is Jesse Sergent. In his first road race for Ag2r, he would love to claim a maiden title and he has aimed for a strong start to the year. However, he rode a very poor time trial which indicates that he has not timed his condition optimally. The course will be a bit hard for him but when he is at his best, he climbs reasonably. He won’t be easy to catch if he attacks in the finale.

 

Drapac go into the race with an in-form Tom Scully. His second place in the time trial was a bit of a surprise and it indicates that he is a serious contender. However, he won’t have any teammates and the course could be a bit too hard for him.

 

That’s also the case for Sam Bewley who is usually a loyal domestique at Orica-GreenEDGE. Here he will have a chance to chase some personal glory but this course doesn’t really suit a big guy like him. To win the race he needs to anticipate the favourites.

 

Finally, Jason Christie deserves a mention. He has left Avanti and will no longer have any teammates at his side but he is still one of the best Kiwi riders. He has often done well in this race and was on the podium in 2015. His time trial indicates that he is again in good condition and he should be up there in the finale. If he can time things right, he could be the one to benefit from a tactical game between the favouries.

 

***** Patrick Bevin

**** Dion Smith, Joe Cooper

*** James Oram, Greg Henderson, Jesse Sergent

** Hayden McCormick, Tom Scully, Sam Bewley, Jason Christie

* Tom Davison, Fraser Gough, Michael Torckler