While most European countries use their national championships as an important pre-Tour de France event, things are different in Australia and New Zealand that have no other choice but to hold their events in January at a time when the main stars are not in their optimal condition. With the Tour Down Under coming up in just a few weeks, however, the races get plenty of attention as the perfect warm-up events for the first WorldTour race of the year.

 

National Championships are always a strange affair. In some countries, teams can field teams of more than 20 riders while others find themselves without any teammates. At the same time, the fields are usually much smaller than in a normal road race and it creates a strange kind of racing. At the same time, they belong to a group of select events that offer the honour of wearing a distinctive jersey for an entire year and that turns them into extremely prestigious affairs.

 

Most European countries have the luxury of hosting their events one week before the start of the Tour de France, meaning that their races are highly competitive as most riders are close to their peak form at that time of the year. It’s not the same for countries in other continents. Due to the huge amount of travelling, it’s impossible to ask their riders to return to their home countries so close to the start of the biggest event of the year and that forces them to schedule their national championships at other times of the year. The US have their national championships in May while some African countries and Colombia are among the countries to hold their events in February.

 

Due to the huge time differences, New Zealand and Australia have the most difficult scheduling issues and they have no other choice than to put on their National Championships during their summer in January. Of course it means that most of their top riders are not in peak condition and many of their stars even skip the events. Michael Matthews would be a natural favourite in Australia but he remains in Europe during the winter and will not return home for the race. Even defending champion Heinrich Haussler has decided to skip the title race in Australia.

 

Nonetheless, the races get a lot of attention. Since the middle of October, cycling fans all over the world have been waiting desperately for the pro riders to be back in action and the national championships in Australia and New Zealand mark the start of the new season. If the races had been held at almost every other time of the year, they would barely have been noticed at all but now they stand out as major highlights. The fields may not be as competitive as the races deserve, but the events stand out at a time when not much happens in the cycling world.

 

At the same time, the Australian summer schedule has grown significantly in recent years. The Tour Down Under is the first WorldTour race of the years and is now followed by UCI racing at the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race and the Jayco Herald Sun Tour. This has created a solid block of races in the Southern Hemisphere that is worth targeting for the local riders. More and more Antipodeans aim to hit the ground running and the racing is getting more and more competitive as more races are added to the calendar.

 

The Mitchelton Bay Cycling Classic which is a series of four criteriums, offers a chance to get the legs going but the national championships are the first real hit-out for the riders that are targeting success at the Tour Down Under. While the Australians and Kiwis are at a disadvantage in the build-up for the Tour de France when there is no racing for two weeks before the event, they are favoured for the Tour Down Under as they have a chance to do a time trial and a road race before the WorldTour race – an opportunity that doesn’t exist for the Europeans. As they have also had much better training conditions in the nice Australian weather and don’t have to deal with jet lag, they have a significant advantage for the opening of the finest calendar. A few years ago, Europeans were allowed to line up for the Australian road race but that opportunity has now been taken away.

 

New Zealand and Australia both offer time trials and road races and the latter country even kicks things off with a national criterium on Wednesday. Some of the WorldTour riders line up for the latter event but it is mostly an affair for the domestic team. The real racing starts on Thursday when the best time triallists battle it out for the Australian title in the TT, with the best Kiwi tackling their race against the clock 24 hours later. Both road races end a busy week of racing when the national champion’s jerseys are handed out on Sunday.

 

Last year Richie Porte claimed a maiden national title by beating Rohan Dennis in a hugely exciting battle. The latter had been fastest in the first part of the course but an in-form Porte was able to make the difference on the tough climb in the headwind on the way back to the finish in Buninyoung. The Sky rider beat his now-teammate by 8 seconds while Jack Bobridge completed the podium. In New Zealand, Michael Vink claimed a second title as he beat Joseph Copper and Patrick Bevin into the minor podium positions.

 

The course

Australia:

While the course for the road race has been largely unchanged for several years, the route for the time trial has been changed several times and suited different kinds of riders. In some years, it has been mainly flat and suited the specialists but last year a new, hillier 40.9km course in Buninyoung was introduced. That course will again determine the winner of the national battle in 2016.

 

The course is an out-and-back route that doesn’t offer many technical challenges. The riders head south from Buninyoung along a straight, mainly descending road. There’s a short climb just before the riders make a 90-degree right-hand turn and then they turn around just a few moments later. It leads to the stiffest challenge of the course as the riders will now tackle the toughest climb. It is followed by a short descent and a mainly flat section before the riders get to the final part which is slightly ascending all the way to the finish.

 

 

 

New Zealand:

After five years in Christchurch, the National Championships have been moved to the city of Napier where the riders will tackle a new course. At 40.5km, the distance is virtually unchanged and the course contains a solid mix of flat roads and climbing.

 

The course is made up of two circuits. First the riders will tackle the same 23km circuit that the women will cover once. The first seven kilometres are flat and leads to the toughest challenge of the race, a short climbs that brings the riders from 0m to 96m above sea level. It is followed by a descent and a long flat section before the riders get to another climb less than five kilometres from the finish. Then there’s a short descent before the riders get to the final 1.5km that are flat. After one lap of the circuit, the riders will do a lap of a 17km circuit that is almost identical to the original one. The only difference is that the riders will skip the first six kilometres that are completely flat.

 

 

The favourites

Australia:

The 2015 edition of the Australian Time Trial Championships gathered an almost all-inclusive line-up of the best Australian time triallists. Richie Porte, Rohan Dennis, Michael Rogers, Michael Hepburn, Luke Durbridge, Campbell Flakemore, Damien Howson and Jack Bobridge all attended the event which made it the ultimate coronation of the best Australian in the individual discipline.

 

Unfortunately, the 2016 edition of the race has gathered a much weaker field and only four WorldTour riders will be in attendance. Orica-GreenEDGE will only have Howson at the start as Durbridge, Hepburn and new signing Alexander Edmondson will all skip the race. The latter two have their eyes on the track and will focus on the road race at Nationals after they both fell ill recently. Durbridge has been unable to reach his former level in recent time trials and seems to focus more on road racing in the future. As Flakemore has retired and Rogers is out of competition with a heart condition, only last year’s three medallists Porte, Dennis and Bobridge will join Howson as representatives from the WorldTour.

 

Howson and Bobridge are both solid time triallists but it would be a major surprise if the race doesn’t come down to a duel between teammates Porte and Dennis in what will be a revenge match after last year’s close battle. The hilly course in Buninyoung means that it is a race for versatile stage race rider more than true specialists and Porte and Dennis are much better climbers than both Bobridge and Howson. None of the domestic rider will have any chance against the four WorldTour stars so it should all come down to an internal BMC battle.

 

Last year Dennis was the big favourite and he seemed to be on his way to a maiden title when he posted the best time at the halfway point. However, Porte made the difference in the headwind and on the climb on the way back and took a surprise win. As the course is unchanged in 2016, Porte should again be favoured by the amount of climbing but a lot of things have changed during the past 12 months.

 

First of all Porte and Cycling Australia’s Scott McGrory who has an inside knowledge of Porte’s preparation, have admitted that the former Sky rider is not in the same outstanding condition that he had last year. Back then, he was flying in January but probably paid a bit for that later in the season. This year he had deliberately held back a bit in his winter training as he aims to be fresher at the Tour de France which is his big goal.

 

However, Dennis is not in his 2015 condition either. Back then, he was targeting the Hour Record and as his overall win at the Tour Down Under proved, he was riding really well at that time. This year his big goal is the Rio Olympics and he has deliberately played down his expectations for his title defence in Adelaide. On the other hand, he has done nothing to hide that the national time trial is a pretty big goal of his and he will do his utmost to bring the green and gold jersey to Europe for the first time in his career.

 

McGrory has made it clear that he expects Dennis to win the race and it is hard to disagree. Porte is definitely a solid time triallist but he is no real specialist. Even though he won last year’s race, he doesn’t seem to be at the same level he had earlier in his career – instead he has improved his climbing massively. At the same time, Dennis’ performances in the second half of 2015 prove that he is now one of the three best time triallists in the world and Porte would have to be close to 100% to beat his teammate – even on this course. That’s definitely not the case for this year’s race and as the event is even a bigger goal for Dennis, it is hard to look beyond the youngster as the favourite for the race.

 

Porte is always pretty strong at this time of the year and he will still be motivated to prove his position in the BMC hierarchy right from the start. Hence, we expect him to get the silver medal while the battle for bronze should come down to Howson and Bobridge. Last year the latter was almost one minute faster than the former who had to settle for fifth, but there is no guarantee that the outcome will be the same this time around.

 

Last year Bobridge was also preparing for an Hour Record attempt and his performance in the Tour Down Under proved that he was close to the maximum of his capabilities. This year he doesn’t have a similar target. Obviously, he is aiming for a strong start in his new Trek-Segafredo team but he is unlikely to be at his 2015 level.

 

Howson has had a difficult start to his pro career and has been unable to build on the potential he showed when he became U23 world champion in 2013. However, he showed clear signs of progress in the second half of 2015 and should benefit from his first grand tour which he completed at the Vuelta. Furthermore, he did his best WorldTour time trial in the Tour de Pologne where he was fourth, clearly indicating that he is getting closer to his former level. Finally, he is a better climber than Bobridge and so should benefit from the course. He still needs to show consistency in time trials but we expect him to take the bronze medal as he did in 2014.

 

For the final spot in the top 5, we will point to Jordan Kerby who lines up as the only Drapac rider in the event. The youngster rode poorly in last year’s race but has proved his potential in America where he was third in the Tour of the Gila and 15th in the Tour of California time trials. However, the hilly course could be a bit too much for him and this could open the door for Ben Dyball who was the best non-WorldTour rider in 2015. The Avanti rider is a great climber and should do well on this course. Another strong contender is Oceania Championships silver medallist Craig Evers.

 

***** Rohan Dennis

**** Richie Porte

*** Damien Howson

** Jack Bobridge

* Jordan Kerby, Ben Dyball, Craig Evers

 

New Zealand:

While Australia is stacked with top level time triallists, New Zealand is in a different position. The country has far less WorldTour riders and only one of them is a real specialist in the individual discipline. However, despite his inconsistency, Jesse Sergent is one of the best time triallists in the world and he stands out as the obvious favourite for the New Zealand title.

 

Surprisingly, Sergent has never been national champion in his preferred discipline as he has mostly skipped the event. However, it seems like he will be riding in 2016 as he features on the provisional start list and this makes him the man to beat. He has often been a rather slow starter to the season and has rarely had great results in January and February but this year he will be motivated to get his time at Ag2r off to a good start. His motivation will only be bigger due to the fact that he missed most of 2015 after being knocked down by a car at the Tour of Flanders and he has probably had a shorter break during the winter than usual. At the same time, he has told Cyclingnews that he wants to tick the box of becoming time trial champion in 2016 and in general he aims to return to his best in the TTs. In 2014, he was riding extremely well in TTs and if he is close to that level, he will be in a class of his own.

 

Defending champion Michael Vink will be absent and we expect Sergent’s biggest rivals to be Joe Cooper, Patrick Bevin, James Oram and Greg Henderson. Last year Cooper was second and Bevin third but both riders are better known for their road race skills than their time trialling. However, at the national level, they are among the best time triallists and will be clear medal contenders.

 

Both riders should be in good condition and should find the mixed course to their liking. Cooper has made it clear that he aims for a strong start to the year and a defence of his road race title. Bevin has signed a WorldTour contract with Cannondale who have asked him to be in good form for the Tour Down Under which should suit him well. There is no doubt that he will have extra motivation in 2016 and there is a solid chance that he will be at a pretty advanced level already now. At the same time, he has been working specifically on his TT skills and that should pay dividends on a course that suits him well. Cooper is a former Oceania and national champion but we will give Bevin the upper hand in this duel.

 

Oram was once hailed as a stage racer as he could both time trial and climb. However, his progress has stalled significantly and he has been off the pace in most of the TTs he has done in North America. This year he will turn professional with ONE and he will aim for a strong start. It remains to be seen if he can again show his former potential but he is definitely a medal contender.

 

Henderson could finish on the podium but it remains to be seen whether he will actually be riding. He features on the provisional start list but has often skipped his national championships. He is a great prologue rider but has struggled a bit in the longer time trials and this one is probably too much of a real TT for him to mix it up with the likes of Sergent, Bevin, Oram and Cooper.

 

Jason Christie is another medal contender. He has been on the podium in the past, was fourth last year and usually finishes in the top 10 in time trials. However, it will be a major surprise if he actually comes away with the win. The same goes for Sam Horgan who is a former silver medallist but not at his former level in recent years.

 

***** Jesse Sergent

**** Patrick Bevin, Joe Cooper

*** James Oram

** Greg Henderson

* Jason Christie, Sam Horgan