After a one-year absence, the Paris-Nice prologue is back and it will be important for the GC riders to be on their toes right from the beginning. At just 6.7km, the flat course in Maurepas may not be very long but in a race that is usually decided by seconds, the time differences on the opening day may play an important role when the riders reach Nice at the end of next week.

 

The course

Paris-Nice has usually kicked off with a flat prologue in one of the Parisian suburbs but last year’s novel course saw the riders tackle a road stage on the opening day. After a one-year absence, the time trial is back as the race kicks off with a 6.7km test against the clock in the Parisian suburb of Maurepas.

 

The course is completely flat and is well-suited to the specialists as there are no major technical challenges. After the start, the riders in a northwesterly direction out of the city before they make a right-hand turn to return back towards the city centre. The only technical part comes just after the 3km to go mark where there are a few turns but then the riders get onto a long, straight 1800m road to the finish where the big engines can really use their power.

 

 

 

The weather

The first part of Paris-Nice is known for its cold and windy conditions which have often turned the opening flat stages into a warzone but this year spring has arrived early in Northern France. For the opening prologue, the riders till have beautiful sunshine and a maximum temperature of a very pleasant 15 degrees.

 

There will be a light wind blowing from a southerly direction which means that the riders will mostly have a crosswind, with only a short tailwind section in the first half and a short headwind section in the second half. The wind is expected to be pretty constant throughout the stage, meaning that the riders should have similar conditions.

 

The favourites

Paris-Nice has traditionally kicked off with a prologue on the outskirts of Paris-Nice and after a one-year absence, the short time trial is back. Some years it has included a small climb while the 2013 version was extremely short. This year’s opener is very traditional though as there is no climbing and the course is made of long, straight roads with very few technical challenges.

 

Paris-Nice will be decided later in the race but traditionally it has come down to seconds. Even though the prologue is a short one, the time differences can turn out to be important later in the race and it is one of three big opportunities for the GC riders to make a difference. In fact, it will be the only chance for the TT specialists to benefit from their skills as the Col d’Eze time trial suits the climbers very well, and so they need to maximize their gains in this very important stage.

 

Sometimes sprinters do well in prologues as they can use their acceleration skills to get back up to speed after the corners. However, this course is one for the really powerful riders and we should see the big specialists come to the fore. Of course the stage is a short one which suits a certain type of riders but we can expect one of the best time triallists to take the first leader’s jersey in the 2015 Paris-Nice.

 

The race has attracted a formidable line-up of time triallists and 4 of the riders who finished in the top 5 at last year’s World Championships, including the entire podium, will be present in Maurepas. With Tom Dumoulin having been set back by illness, the race is likely to come down to another duel between world champion Bradley Wiggins and his predecessor Tony Martin.

 

Wiggins has arrived at the race without any GC ambitions and he is mainly here to prepare for the classics. However, he will definitely give the two time trials a shot as they will allow him to show off the rainbow jersey for the final time (unless he decides to do Three Days of De Panne later in the year). As he has focused on the classics, his climbing is unlikely to be good enough to make him a contender on Col d’Eze and so this stage is his big goal for the race.

 

Wiggins has only done one time trial this year and he didn’t really set the world on fire when he was beaten by both Fabian Cancellara and Niki Terpstra in Qatar. Since then, however, he has improved his conditions a lot and he delivered an impressive performance in last Saturday’s Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. Despite riding on the front for a long time in the most hectic phase of the race, he was still strong enough to stay with the small main group, clearly proving that he is on track for the classics.

 

In a long, flat time trial, Wiggins openly admits that he lacks the power to match Tony Martin but things are different in a prologue. With his track background, Wiggins is usually better than the German in the short efforts and his preparation for the classics should put him in a good position to ride very fast for a short period of time. As Martin is aiming at the GC and has focused a bit more on his climbing, Wiggins may be best prepared for this kind of test and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

However, Martin will be tough to beat. Unlike last year when the German had a hard time in his first time trials, he got things right from the beginning when he won the Algarve TT. In that race, he was also climbing really well and he is clearly in a lot better condition than he was 12 months ago.

 

In December, he made Paris-Nice a very big goal as he wants to try to repeat his win from the 2011 edition but he will have a hard time on this course which has almost no flat time trialling. Nonetheless, he will do his best to finish high in the overall standings and he needs to maximize his gains right from the beginning.

 

Martin may have lost his rainbow jersey but in a long, flat time trial, he is still the best. However, he has never been the best prologue rider and may also have been a bit more focused on climbing in his preparation for a race that is set to be decided in the mountains. This was evident in Algarve where he only beat Adriano Malori by less than half a second and so we expect him to be slightly below Wiggins in the opening test.

 

Last year Tom Dumoulin proved that he is now one of the very best time triallists in the world and this year he is likely to get even closer to Martin and Wiggins. Furthermore, he is a pretty explosive rider who usually does really well in prologues and this automatically means that he has a realistic chance to beat his main rivals in this stage.

 

Unfortunately, Dumoulin has been set back by illness which caused him to miss a lot of training and he is unlikely to be at 100% for the race. On the other hand, he was feeling very good before his setback and he can’t have lost his condition entirely. It would be a surprise if the Dutchman is not among the best in this stage.

 

Rohan Dennis has had an excellent start to the year but after a very busy period, he has now taken some time off. He returned to racing last weekend in France where he was far off the pace and he goes into this race with no GC ambitions. In fact, his only goal is the prologue and then he will put himself in the service of van Garderen.

 

In a prologue, however, riders are usually able to perform pretty well even if they are not at 100% and Dennis is an excellent prologue rider. Last year he finished in the top 2 in most of his time trials and the Worlds proved that he is no longer too far behind the best. With his training for the Hour Record, he should be prepared for this effort and he should be among the best.

 

Wilco Kelderman goes into the race as one of the GC favourites and he will try to capitalize on his good time trialling. While he seems to have lost his top level in the long time trials, he seems to be one of the best prologue riders in the world. In 2013, he was fourth in the Paris-Nice prologue, last year he was fifth in the Dauphine and recently he was second in the Ruta del Sol TT. To have a real shot at the win, he would probably need a more technical course but as he is obviously in great condition, he should do well.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski has deliberately had a slower start to the season but while his climbing has clearly not been at its best, he has been time trialling really well. He was fourth in the Algarve TT and a close second behind Malori in the San Luis TT. Since then his condition has improved and he is usually a very good prologue rider. Last year he won the opening Romandie time trial and he should also do well in this stage. Like Kelderman, he would have preferred more technical challenges but he will still be among the best.

 

Sylvain Chavanel is always very strong in Paris-Nice and he has always been among the best in the prologue. In fact, he loves short time trials that are mostly about power and so this one should suit him pretty well. In Ruta del Sol and Omloop Het Nieuwsblad he proved that he is much better than he was 12 months ago and this should make him a contender.

 

Bob Jungels has got the year off to a great start as he won the Etoile de Besseges overall. That win was based on a victory in the time trial which has always been his preferred discipline. Since then he went on to do well in Ruta del Sol where he missed out slightly in the TT but he climbed really well. Last year he was third behind Froome and Contador in the Dauphiné TT and as he seems to be close to 100%, he could do well in this race.

 

Speaking about in-form riders, it is hard not to mention Geraint Thomas. The Welshman won the Volta ao Algarve overall and he was also third in the time trial, just a few seconds behind Martin and Malori. Thomas is aiming at the GC in this race and even though he is not among the very best time triallists, he is usually pretty good in prologues.

 

Tejay van Garderen is one of the favourites to win the race overall and he will be keen to gain as much time as possible. The American is better in the longer time trials but he has also done well in prologues in the past. However, he would have preferred a climb on the course like the one that featured in 2012 and this may be a bit too much about power to suit him perfectly.

 

The favourite for the overall win is Richie Porte and he is usually a very strong time triallist. However, he has been time trialling poorly for the past few years. In January, he returned to his best when he won the Australian championships but that race was held on a very hilly course. On the flatter course in Algarve, he performed way below expectations and this course could be a bit too much about power for him.

 

On paper, the course suits Kristof Vandewalle perfectly. The Belgian is generally underestimated in time trials but when he beat Malori in Poland last year, he proved that he is close to the very best. Unfortunately, he doesn’t seem to be in his best condition at the moment and he may not be strong enough to go for the win at the moment. However, it could be dangerous to rule the strong Belgian out.

 

Andrew Talansky first made himself famous for his time trialling skills but while he has improved his climbing, he may have lost a bit of his TT skills. Nonetheless, he was fourth in last year’s Dauphiné prologue and this proves that he knows how to handle these short efforts. The course is a little bit too flat to suit him perfectly but as Paris-Nice is a big goal for him, he should be able to do well.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Bradley Wiggins

Other winner candidates: Tony Martin, Tom Dumoulin

Outsiders: Michal Kwiatkowski, Rohan Dennis, Wilco Kelderman, Sylvain Chavanel, Bob Jungels

Jokers: Geraint Thomas, Tejay van Garderen, Richie Porte, Kristof Vandewalle, Andrew Talansky