With the start of the Paris-Nice, spring has arrived but things are not as they used to be in the Race to the Sun. Organizers ASO have put together a novel course that contains no time trialing, meaning the riders won't start their race with the usual prologue. Instead, the sprinters are expected to come to the fore on the opening day while the GC riders will have to stay aware of the crosswinds danger.

The course

Many historic races which include geographical places in their names, no longer start in the city that their name indicates. That is also true for Paris-Nice which doesn't start in the centre of Paris but usually takes off in a city not too far from the French capital.

This will again be the case for the 2014 edition which again starts in the Yvelines department. The city of Mantes-la-Jolie has been given the honour of kicking off one of the biggest bike races and it will do so with a short 162.5km stage that both starts and ends in the city.

The race is mostly a circuit race, with the riders starting on the northeastern outskirts of the city and doing a small loop in the northern area before turning around and heading back to the city centre. The early part is lumpy but mostly flat.

In the city centre, the riders will cross the river and turn left onto the 33.5km finishing circuit and they will almost do a full lap of the section that will be the scene of the rest of the action. It is almost completely flat but includes the category 3 climb Cote de Vert (1.5km, 4.4%). It comes early on and from its top, 22.5km remain before the riders are back at the finish line.

Having done almost a full lap to get acquainted with the circuit, the riders will cross the line for the first time to contest the first intermediate sprint after 63km of racing. The final part of the race consists of three full laps of the circuit and so the Cote de Vert will be climbed four times in total. There will be KOM points on offer at the first and third passages while the intermediate sprints come at the third and third passages of the finish line.

The final part of the circuit is slightly technical but almost completely flat. The riders will do a sharp left-hand turn just before the 4km to go banner. Having passed through a roundabout, the riders face the difficult part just after the 3km to go mark when 3 sharp turns come in quick succession. From there, the road is almost completely straight to the finish, with two roundabout coming just before and after the 2km to go mark. A final bending right-hand turn comes just before the flamme rouge. The final kilometre is slightly descending at 0.4% and the road is 6m wide.

The weather

Like most of the spring races, last year's edition of the Paris-Nice was a cold affair and the weather has usually played a very important role in the historic race. The early stages have often been shortened or even cancelled due to snow and usually the wind has had a big influence on the racing in at least one of the flat stages.

This year's edition of the Race to the Sun seems to be the complete opposite to last year's as the race shapes up to be a really pleasant affair. The first stage should take place in beautiful sunshine and 18-degree temperatures and there will only be a moderate wind from a southern direction whose strength should even decrease as the day goes on.

This means that the riders will mostly have a headwind in the first part of the finishing circuit while there will be a general tailwind with several crosswind sections when they head back towards Mantes-La-Jolie. The riders will have a tailwind between the 4km and 3km to go marks and will then have a crosswind from the right for the final part of the stage.

The favourites

In the past, the opening road stages of Paris-Nice have been the scene of some of the most exciting racing of the entire year as the wind can be rather strong in Northern France at this time of the year. With the organizers always sending the riders onto some very exposed roads on their flat run towards the sun in the southern part of the country, history has shown that the wind usually wreaks havoc on the peloton on at least one occasion in the first part of the race.

This is unlikely to happen in this year's edition of the opening European WorldTour event as the riders will have brilliant conditions for not only tomorrow's stage but also the rest of the week. There may be several crosswind sections on the finishing circuit but the wind will not be strong enough to split things up and no team will probably even bother trying. The GC riders will of course be aware and stay close to the front and we could see some nervous racing at times but in general it should be a rather calm affair.

This means that we can expect the race to be a classic affair for the sprinters, with an escape taking off early in the stage to battle it out for the first mountains jersey. The sprint teams will keep things under control and there is no doubt that Giant-Shimano and FDJ, maybe with a bit of help from Europcar, will bring things back together for a sprint finish in Mantes-la-Jolie. We can't expect a repeat of the scenario from 2011 when the race last started with a road stage and when Thomas De Gendt took a breakaway win. With this race set to come down to bonus seconds, the intermediate sprints could come into play on several stages but as none of them are close to either the finish or the start, it is unlikely to happen on the opening day.

As usual, the fastest sprinters have preferred the Tirreno but there is still several fast guys in attendance in France. One of them is Nacer Bouhanni who won the first sprint stage of last year's race to take over the leader's jersey before crashing out of the race. On paper, the FDJ sprinter is the fastest rider in the race and he will be the man to beat in tomorrow's stage.

Bouhanni is a very explosive sprinter and he has shown great form right from the beginning of the year. He won a stage in the Etoile de Besseges and he was the only rider to really challenge André Greipel in the sprint finishes of the Tour of Oman. In that race, he seemed to be almost as fast as the German but he had little chance against the magnificent Lotto Belisol lead-out train.

In this race, Bouhanni has great support from new lead-out man Sebastien Chavanel and Geoffrey Soupe and the cooperation with his new teammate seems to be working well. Chavanel put his sprinter in perfect position in Wednesday's Le Samyn but Bouhanni had the rare experience of running out of power. This is of course a bad sign ahead of his first big objective but we write it down as a bad day. In general, Bouhanni has been sprinting well and if he gets a clear run to the line in tomorrow's sprint, he will be hard to beat.

John Degenkolb has had an amazing start to the season by winning three consecutive stage of the Tour Mediteraneen. It is in sharp contrast to last year when he sprinted terribly throughout the entire first half of the season. However, he found his legs at the end and was the dominant sprinter in the closing months of 2013.

Degenkolb may be fast but he is not as fast as Bouhanni and he would undoubtedly have preferred a harder finish in tomorrow's flat affair. When he remains one of the top candidates to take the win, it is by virtue of his excellent lead-out train. Reinardt Van Rensburg, Albert Timmer, Bert De Backer, Ramon Sinkeldam, and lead-out man Koen De Kort have a vast experience in the area and we could easily see the Giant-Shimano train dominate the finishing straight. The long finishing straight should suit Degenkolb well, and if his team gets things right, he could take the win.

The only rider that can challenge Bouhanni when it comes to speed is youngster Bryan Coquard. The Europcar rider is amazingly fast and he beat Bouhanni when he won two stages of the Etoile de Besseges. If he gets a clear run to the line, he is an obvious winner candidate and a guaranteed podium finisher.

To get there, however, he needs to overcome his tendency to be badly positioned. His cooperation with new lead-out man Jimmy Engoulvent seems to have improved his chances but too often he finds himself boxed in at the end. This will be the main challenge again tomorrow but if the green Europcar jersey is near the front when the sprint is launched, he may well take the first win in the race.

Orica-GreenEDGE is in France to chase stage wins and their rider for the flat stages is Matthew Goss. In the past, the Australian would have been right at the top of our list of favourites but the Australian had a terrible 2013 season when he sprinted at a far lower level than he has done previously. The early indications in 2014 are that things have not improved.

Nonetheless, Goss remains a winner candidate. No one can take away his past exploits and he has a very strong lead-out train to support him. With Mathew Hayman, Simon Gerrans, Jens Keukeleire and Michael Matthews to position him, he has all the chances to be well-placed for the sprint. It will then be up to Goss himself to prove that he still has the speed to win.

One rider that has already won a race in 2014 is Alexander Kristoff who took a win in Oman. The Norwegian is a hugely consistent sprinter who rarely misses the top 10 but in a flat sprint like tomorrow's, other riders are faster than him. However, that was also the case in Oman when he took a surprise win and the Norwegian claims to be riding better than he was at this time 12 months ago. He is probably looking more at some of the harder stages later in the race but he will surely give it a go tomorrow.

Tom Boonen has signaled his return to form in the early part of the race and he would love to take another stage win in Paris-Nice. Boonen remains a fast sprinter but these days it is hard for him to win the true bunch sprints. Tomorrow's stage seems to be a very easy one and this will hamper his chances. On the other hand, the long finishing straight suits a power sprinter like Boonen and he will have excellent support from Niki Terpstra, Gianni Meersman, Nikolas Maes, and Gert Steegmans. That kind of firepower will be needed for Boonen to win but if they get things right, he has a chance.

Finally, we will select our joker. In the past, Tyler Farrar would have been one of the major names and not a joker pick but times have changed for the American. Last year he only won two races and he hasn't had much success in the early part of 2014 either. Nonetheless, he has been reported as producing great number in training and signs at the end of 2013 were that he was improving. With Steele Von Hoff and Ramunas Navardauskas, he will have solid support and the field of sprinters is not overly strong in this race. Tomorrow may be the day when Farrar again takes a big win.

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Nacer Bouhanni

Other winner candidates: John Degenkolb, Bryan Coquard

Outsiders: Matthew Goss, Alexander Kristoff, Tom Boonen

Joker: Tyler Farrar