After the opening prologue, it is time for some of the most nervous stages of the entire cycling season. The first days of Paris-Nice are infamously known for their windy conditions but with good weather on the horizon, the sprinters are expected to shine in Contres tomorrow.

 

The course

The first half of Paris-Nice is usually for the sprinters and the 2015 edition will be no exception. Already on the second day, the riders will start their journey towards the sun as they head over 196.5km from Saint-Remy-les-Chevreuse to Contres. This part of France is completely flat and there won’t be any major topographical challenges on the long run towards the south.

 

The riders will get the stage off to a tough start as they will head straight up the category 3 Cote de Bel Air. The summit comes after just 3km of racing and the KOM sprint will determine the first holder of the mountains jersey, meaning that it will be a very fast start to the stage.

 

After the opening battle, however, the riders reach the flat roads and from there the rest of the stage is a long, flat run to the finish Contres. Here the riders will tackle a completely flat finale that should be the scene for a big bunch sprint.

 

The finale is not very technical. The rider will pass straight through two roundabouts inside the final 5km before they take a sharp right-hand turn just before the flamme rouge. From there it is straight to the finish on a 7m wide road.

 

A stage last finished in Contres in 2010 when Greg Henderson beat Grega Bole in a bunch sprint one day after the opening prologue.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The first days of Paris-Nice are usually extremely nervous due to the windy conditions that have often wreaked havoc on the peloton. Hence, many GC riders and climbers will be pleased to know that the spring-like conditions for the prologue are set to continue for the next few days.

 

Today the riders had lots of sunshine but that won’t be the case tomorrow which is set to be cloudy day. However, the temperature is expected to reach a very pleasant 14 degrees.

 

Most importantly, there will barely be ay wind, with only a very light wind blowing from a westerly direction. It will gradually change direction and towards the end of the stage, it will come from the north. Hence, the riders will have a crosswind almost all day but it will definitely not be strong enough to split the field. In the finale, the riders will turn into a tailwind a few kilometres before the finish before they get to a cross-headwind. There will be a headwind on the finishing straight.

 

The favourites

Lots of GC riders have lost all hope of a good result in the first road stages of Paris-Nice and those days have often been some of the most exciting of the entire race. This year, however, it seems that there won’t be much spectacle as the nice conditions should make for some plain sailing through the flat countryside in Northern France.

 

This will definitely be welcome news for many climbers who feared these opening stages but they can still expect a nervous day in the saddle. Most of them still want to be in the front, especially in the finales, and it would be no surprise to see crashes that split the peloton. Last year the wind was also not very strong in the first stage but back then Romain Bardet was taken out of contention due to a crash.

 

With a category 3 climb right from the beginning of the stage, we should be off to a very fast start as lots of riders will have their eyes on the first mountains jersey. This means that the early break is unlikely to get clear before the riders have crested the summit of the hill but then the race should settle into a steady rhythm quickly. The field is loaded with strong sprinters who have their eyes on the first three road stages and so everybody knows that the stage will be firmly control. With no mountains jersey up for grabs, there is no big incentive to go on the attack and so the break will probably be established right after the KOM sprint, with the French teams likely to be most prominent in the group.

 

From there, it will be left to the sprint teams to control the stage and we can expect Lotto Soudal, Cofidis, Giant-Alpecin, Katusha and FDJ to take the responsibility. Etixx-QuickStep may be forced to ride a bit in the early part but very early we should see the sprint teams take over. As the group is unlikely to be very big, they can allow them an advantage of around 6-7 minutes but they are unlikely to take too many risks. Near the end they will accelerate and it will be a massive surprise if the race is not decided in a bunch sprint. As said, the racing in the finale is likely to be very nervous and it would be no surprise to see a few crashes.

 

It is important to notice that a few sprinters are within striking distance of the yellow jersey. John Degenkolb and Michael Matthews both did great prologues to finish just 10 and 12 seconds behind Kwiatkowski. However, Degenkolb was slightly more than 10 seconds slower in the opening stage and as the tiebreaker is the exact time from the TTs, a win is not enough for him to take the lead.

 

The sprint will take place on a very, long straight road where the riders will face a headwind. This means that timing will be very important and that it is a sprint for the real power sprinters. This suits the in-form Alexander Kristoff perfectly. In the past few years, Kristoff has been a very consistent sprinter but he was rarely able to win these big bunch sprints against the fastest guys. However, he has gradually improved and with a focused sprint work in the winter, he has clearly taken another big step in his development.

 

In Qatar and Oman, he won sprints against some of the fastest guys in the world and some of those wins were taken in pure bunch sprints like this one. The days when he can’t win this kind of sprints are over and at the moment only a select few riders are faster than him. In Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne, he proved that his condition is still excellent and this power sprint suits him perfectly.

 

Kristoff has always been very good at positioning himself but now he can also rely on a bit more team support. Jacopo Guarnieri has done some excellent lead-out this year and that should be enough for Kristoff to start his sprint from a good position. This makes the Norwegian our favourite.

 

However, he faces tough opposition from André Greipel. On paper, the German is the fastest rider in this field and he can even count on the best lead-out. He misses Jurgen Roelandts who is usually the final rider before Greipel and lead-out man Greg Henderson but Marcel Sieberg and Henderson worked splendidly when they supported Jens Debusschere in Kuurne. Lotto Soudal has an excellent train and we can expect Greipel to be delivered on the front.

 

However, Greipel’s form is a bit uncertain after he had to skip Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne due to illness. That was a clear setback. On the other hand, he was very strong in Algarve where he won the final stage in dominant fashion and climbed excellently in the hard stages. There is no doubt that Greipel is in very good condition and it remains to be seen how much impact the illness has had. If he is delivered on the front, Kristoff probably has to be right on his wheel to win the stage.

 

Nacer Bouhanni has not had the perfect start to the season as he has been far from his best in the sprints in Qatar and Oman. However, he has gradually become better and he is getting closer to the win. In Kuurne, he was poised for a top result but a touch of wheel with Tom Van Asbroeck took him out of contention.

 

Last year Bouhanni proved that he has an incredible top speed but this kind of power sprint doesn’t suit him perfectly. However, his Cofidis train has improved a lot since their first races and Bouhanni himself is getting better and better. On paper, only Greipel is faster than him and tomorrow could be the day when he finally takes the win.

 

John Degenkolb has had a mixed start to the year. He showed amazing power when he won the queen stage of the Dubai Tour, but in the sprints things haven’t worked out for the big German. However, he is clearly in very good condition as he proved in the prologue and he can count on a very good lead-out. Ramon Sinkeldam and Koen De Kort will provide him with great team support and that was what he lacked in Dubai. This kind of power sprint suits him perfectly but he still has to prove that he has the speed from last year.

 

Like Bouhanni, Arnaud Demare has had a terrible start to the year but in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, he proved that his condition is very good. His poor results have mostly come down to a bad performance by his lead-out train which was very strong in 2014. With William Bonnet, Sebastien Chavanel and Mickael Delage at his side, he has very good support but they still need to prove that they can put things together like they did in 2014. If they manage to do so, Demare has the speed to win.

 

Giacomo Nizzolo got the year off to a slow start due to a small injury but he has gradually improved his form. In Le Samyn, he seemed to be back to his best and it was only a mechanical that took him out of contention. In this race, he can count on Eugenio Alafaci, Marco Coledan and Gert Steegmans for the lead-outs and Trek seem to be mostly focused on the sprints. In the Giro, he proved that he is both very good at positioning himself and has a great speed and even though this sprint doesn’t suit him perfectly, the combination of a good lead-out and good condition could give him the win.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Jonas Vangenechten had a breakthrough year in 2014 and now he has joined IAM to get more personal opportunities. Until now, he has mainly been working for Matteo Pelucchi but in this race he should be the protected sprinter. By winning a stage in the Tour de Pologne, he has proved that he can compete with the best at the WorldTour level and this fast sprint should suit him pretty well.

 

Michael Matthews is not a rider for these very fast power sprints and it will be hard for him to win the stage. However, he has two advantages. First of all he is clearly in excellent condition as he proved in the prologue. Secondly he can count on one of the best lead-outs in the race. In this kind of power sprint, it may not be enough to start the sprint in a good position but he could create a surprise.

 

Bryan Coquard is clearly in very good condition as he comes straight from a very campaign at the track worlds. He looked strong in Kuurne but as it is often the case, he missed out due to poor positioning. At last year’s Tour de France, he seemed to have overcome that weakness but this year he has again had that kind of problems. If he gets a clear run to the line, he has the speed to win though.

 

Niccolo Bonifazio has had an amazing start to the year. In Australia he got close to a stage win when he won the bunch sprint behind the breakaway in stage 1 and last weekend he won the GP Lugano. That victory was obtained with a combination of sprinting and climbing and this race may be a bit too easy to really suit him. However, he is destined for a great future and this race could allow him to finally excel on the biggest scene.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alexander Kristoff

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Nacer Bouhanni

Outsiders: John Degenkolb, Arnaud Demare, Giacomo Nizzolo

Jokers: Michael Matthews, Jonas Vangenechten, Bryan Coquard, Niccolo Bonifazio, Moreno Hofland, Yauheni Hutarovich