Nacer Bouhanni (FDJ) won the first battle between the sprinters in this year's Paris-Nice when he comfortably held off John Degenkolb (Giant-Shimano) in the bunch kick in today's first stage. The German will, however, get an immediate opportunity to take revenge as the second stage will be another great chance for the sprinters that face a very technical and slightly uphill finale in Saint-Georges-sur-Baulche.
The course
On the second day, the riders start their long journey from Paris to Nice. They take off from Rambouillet just southwest of the French capital and almost head in a straight line in a southeasterly direction over 205km to the finish in Saint-Georges-sur-Baulche. It is another flat day in the saddle as there are almost no elevation differences throughout the day.
The first part is the flattest but as the riders get closer to the finishing city, the roads become slightly more undulating, albeit without no major climbs. The only categorized climb is the category 3 Cote de La Ferte-Loupiere (1.2km, 4%) which comes 44.5km from the finish but it should have no major impact on the racing. The two intermediate sprints come at the 61.5km and 186.5km marks.
The final sprint comes at the first passage of the finish line, and the riders will end the race by doing a lap of 18.5km rectangular finishing circuit. The finish is technical as the riders will be challenged by a few corners near the end. The road is straight until 1.1km from the line where the riders will take a sharp left-hand turn. The real challenges are, however, the two right-hand corners that come in quick succession inside the final 500m, leading onto the 300m, 6m wide finishing straight. The penultimate kilometre is slightly uphill and after a short flat section, the final 500m ascend with an average gradient of 3-4%.
The weather
Opening stages of Paris-Nice have often been true carnage as cold and windy conditions have wreaked havoc on the peloton but as today's stage proved, things can also be a calm and easy affair if the wind isn't strong enough. Many GC riders will be happy to know that the good weather conditions that they enjoyed for today's stage will continue tomorrow, meaning that there is little chance that things will split up.
It should be another day with beautiful and bright sunshine throughout the entire day and the temperatures will be a very pleasant 16 degrees. The main concern is of course the wind which will be closely studied by all teams.
There will be a light/moderate wind from a northern direction. On one hand, it will not be very strong but on the other hand, the direction means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind for the long run between the start and finishing cities while there will generally be a cross-headwind in the first part and a cross-tailwind in the second part of the finishing circuit. There will be a headwind from the 1.1km mark until two difficult turns 500m from the line where the riders will turn into a tailwind for the short finishing straight.
The favourites
The stage is completely flat and there are several sprinters that are eager to maximize their benefits of the first three stages, meaning that the stage is a guaranteed bunch sprint unless the wind does some damage. The wind direction is entirely right to create some real carnage as a cross-tailwind is the best one of to create a selection.
However, we doubt that it will be strong enough to do some damage but the wind direction will create some nervousness. We could see a few teams give it a go on different occasions and this will require the GC riders and the sprinters to stay aware throughout the entire stage. Like today, it could cause some crashes and as the riders will also have the wind in their back, we could be in for a fast stage.
As said, however, we don't expect things to split up in these conditions unless a crash does the damage as it did in today's stage. Hence, we expect another bunch sprint to decide the stage and the technical finale means that we should see a completely different sprint than today's very straightforward affair.
Yesterday we claimed that Nacer Bouhanni was the fastest rider in the race and he proved us right when he comfortably held off John Degenkolb in today's sprint. However, tomorrow' stage will be as much about teamwork and positioning as it will be very important to enter the final corner as one of the first three sprinters as it will be hard to come from far behind. The short finishing straight means that acceleration will be important and the uphill finish will also change the nature of the sprint.
Bouhanni may be the fastest rider in this race but he certainly doesn't have the strongest team. That honour goes to Giant-Shimano who proved their strength when they took control in today's finale. Unfortunately, they had lost their sprinter in the process and had to slow down but Degenkolb was lucky to find his way to the front despite the less than smooth lead-out.
Tomorrow it will be all about power of the train that needs to bring the sprinter in the best position for the final corners and this turns the sprint into one for Degenkolb. If he managed to stay on the wheel of final lead-out man Koen De Kort, he has a great chance to enter the final corner in prime position. The uphill finishing straight will also suit him better than today's and as he proved today, the difference in speed between him and Bouhanni is not very big. The strong Giant-Shimano train means that Degenkolb will be out favourite to take the win on stage 2.
However, no one can rule out another win for Bouhanni. The Frenchman is very explosive and also excels in slightly uphill sprints. His acceleration will suit him well on this short finishing straight but he needs to overcome the battle for position to get in a position to benefit from those advantages.
Bouhanni doesn't have the strongest team at his disposal and he is further hampered by the fact that one of the key riders Geoffrey Soupe is suffering, losing more than 17 minutes in today's stage. This leaves him with Sebastien Chavanel as his main support rider in the final and FDJ won't be the team to lead into the final corners.
The strategy for the team will be to position Bouhanni on Degenkolb's wheel and if they manage to do so, he will take the win. He is more explosive than the German and generally a faster rider but there is certainly no guarantee that he will be in the best position. If he starts his sprint just a few positions further back, he won't have time to make it two in a row.
The team that can potentially beat Giant-Shimano in the battle for control is Omega Pharma-Quick Step. Today they proved their strength but they had to slow down when they realized that they had lost their sprinter. Nonetheless, they came fast in the end and managed to deliver Gianni Meersman in the first position.
We were a bit surprised that Meersman got the chance to sprint as the obvious choice would have been Tom Boonen. Either Boonen may have disappeared in the finale, forcing a late reshuffle of the plans, or the team have decided to give it their all for Meersman in the GC battle. The Belgian sprinted for bonus seconds in the intermediates and this indicates that this race could be all about Meersman for Omega Pharma-Quick Step.
We still expect the team to work for Boonen in tomorrow's stage as he is faster in this kind of sprint than Meersman and so he would be the rider to benefit from the team's strong lead-out that could see them enter the final turns in the best position. Even though the short finishing straight doesn't suit a power sprinter like Boonen, he has a good shot at the win.
Meersman, however, could be the rider to gain from the team's strength if they decide to go for the Belgian. He is not nearly as fast Degenkolb and Bouhanni but in this kind of sprint he has a chance. The uphill sprint suits him down to the ground and he is rather explosive. With a strong team to support him, this could be enough to take the win.
Orica-GreenEDGE also have a lot of firepower in their team but all their plans were destroyed when Simon Gerrans and Michael Matthews hit the deck and Matthew Goss was caught in the second group. Tomorrow they will be eager to take their revenge and they have the strength to battle with the likes of Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Giant-Shimano.
The most likely scenario is that it will be all for Goss but the uphill sprint could see them focus on Matthews who was unhurt in today's crash except for bruised finger. We doubt that Matthews is fast enough to beat Degenkolb and Bouhanni and the wise decision would be to focus on Goss who could capitalize from a great lead-out.
We also need to mention Bryan Coquard as a possible winner as he is the only rider who has the speed to match Bouhanni. As it was the case today, however, he is very often badly positioned and this will hamper him severely in tomorrow's finish. He is unlikely to be in a place where he can sprint for the win when they enter the final corners. If his team do a better work than they usually do, however, he has the speed to come away with the win.
Finally, we will mention our joker. Moreno Hofland is not a pure sprinter and usually he won't have a chance against the faster riders. However, Belkim have a lot of firepower in this race and if Giant-Shimano and Omega Pharma-Quick Step mess it up in the finale, they could be the ones to lead into the final turns. If so, Hofland will benefit from the uphill sprint and may take a surprise win to add to the one he took in the Vuelta a Andalucia.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: John Degenkolb
Other winner candidates: Nacer Bouhanni, Tom Boonen
Outsiders: Gianni Meersman, Matthew Goss, Bryan Coquard
Joker: Moreno Hofland
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