Alexander Kristoff was in a class of his own in the first sprint stage at Paris-Nice. However, his rivals will get an immediate chance to get their revenge in what will be another flat stage and as no wind is forecasted, it seems that only a gamble from the sprint teams can prevent another bunch sprint in Saint-Armand-Montrond.

 

The course

The sprinters will be keen to make the most of their opportunities in the first part of the race which is again tailor-made for them. After the opening road stage, the second day should again be one for the fast finishers as the riders continue their journey through the flatlands to get closer to the sun.

 

The 172km stage brings them from Zooparc de Beauval Saint-Aignan to Saint-Armand-Montrond and unlike yesterday, the riders will mainly travel in a southeasterly direction. That won’t change the terrain though as there are no major climbs on the long run towards the finishing city.

 

The riders will already cross the finish line for the first time after 127km of racing to contest the final intermediate sprint and then they will take on a 45km finishing circuit on the eastern outskirts of the city. Right from the start, they will go up the category 3 Cote de la Tour (2.1km, 4.2%) which is no major challenge. From there the final part of the circuit is completely flat and leads to a straightforward finish in Saint-Armand-Montrond. The road is slightly descending from between the 5km and 3km to go marks but the final 3km are almost completely flat. There are no major technical challenges as the riders will mostly follow a straight road for the final 5km. They will pass straight through a roundabout with 1.5km to go and just after the flamme rouge, there’s another such obstacle. Then the road bends slightly to the right until the riders hit the 500m finishing straight which has width of 7m.

 

Like the opening road stage, this stage has two possible scenarios. It could either be another straightforward day for the sprinters but if the conditions are right, the wind could turn it into a nightmare for the climbers. Saint-Armand-Montrond grew to fame at the 2013 Tour de France when Belkin, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and later Saxo-Tinkoff destroyed Alejandro Valverde’s GC campaign on a memorable stage that finished in the city and on a windy day in France, it could again provide some exciting racing.

 

A Paris-Nice stage last finished in Saint-Armand-Montrond in 2006 when Tom Boonen beat Allan Davis and Francisco Ventoso in a bunch sprint and four years earlier, it was Alessandro Petacchi who beat Jaan Kirsipuu and Robbie McEwen. In addition to the memorable Tour stage won by Mark Cavendish, Fabian Cancellara won a time trial here in 2008 when Carlos Sastre sealed his overall victory in La Grande Boucle.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Today the riders had no reason to be nervous for the wind as there was barely any at all. The climbers will be pleased to know that they are likely to get to the mountains without having to fight in echelons as no wind is forecasted tomorrow either.

 

Like today it will be a very cloudy day but rain is not forecasted. The temperature is expected to reach a very pleasant 15 degrees which is definitely welcome news for most of the peloton.

 

There will only be a very light wind form a northeasterly direction and this means that the riders will have a crosswind from the left for almost the entire stage. On the final circuit, they will first have a headwind before they turn into a tailwind. In the final five kilometres, there will again be a crosswind from the left.

 

The favourites

Apart from the final 25km, today’s stage was probably one of the least exciting in recent Paris-Nice history. The first stages of the French race have often been some of the most dramatic due to the windy conditions and narrow, exposed roads and the organizers had clearly found some of the trickiest roads for the opening road stage of the race. With barely any wind, however, there was no drama and as the breakaway played games with the peloton, it turned out to be a very slow and relaxed affair.

 

Tomorrow should be more of the same. The riders will have a crosswind all day but it will not be strong enough to split the peloton. It is slightly stronger than today though and so there may be a bit more tension in the peloton but everybody will quickly realize that there is no real danger. Hence, the big teams can probably wait until the finale to move to the front and the only real dangers for the GC riders are crashes. However, they have often marred the early stages of Paris-Nice and as the final circuit will definitely be fast and nervous, a tumble may split the peloton and cause some GC riders to lose time.

 

Everybody knows that the stage is likely to be firmly controlled by the sprint teams and so there isn’t much point in joining the early breakaway. Due to the late climb, however, there may be the prospect of the mountains jersey for riders who are better placed on GC than Jonathan Hivert and this should inspire some riders to go on the attack. Furthermore, they may have been a bit inspired by the hesitation from the sprint teams in today’s stage. Nonetheless, the break is likely to get clear almost from the gun and will probably mainly be made up of riders from the French teams.

 

Today Etixx-QuickStep did all the work until Lotto Soudal hit the front inside the final 20km. The other sprints teams gambled a lot by not lending a hand to the chase and this nearly cost them the chance to sprint. It will be interesting to see whether they are willing to take the same kind of risks in tomorrow’s stage.

 

Etixx-QuickStep will do the early pace-setting but with Alexander Kristoff showing impressive form, it will be hard for Katusha to hide. We expect the Russian team to join forces with the Belgians. Furthermore, Nacer Bouhanni has been inspired by today’s result and Cofidis may also lend a hand. Finally, Lotto Soudal are usually always showing confidence in Greipel even though the German missed up the sprint today. They may again do some work in the peloton.

 

Katusha and Etixx-QuickStep are likely to do most of the work but if the situation becomes dangerous, they will probably get some assistance. The sprinters cannot afford to let this opportunity slip away and it is hard to imagine that the stage won’t be decided in a bunch sprint.

 

In that case, it is hard to look beyond Alexander Kristoff as the man to beat. The Norwegian has been unstoppable all year and today he was in a class of his own. In the past, he was not able to mix it up with the really fast guys in the pure bunch sprints but his work on his sprinting skills has clearly paid off. Today’s easy stage made it one for the real sprinters and Kristoff was still able to come out on top.

 

Tomorrow it will again be a real power sprint and this suits Kristoff down to the ground. He is excellent at positioning himself and knows how to jump onto the right trains. In this race, he can only really count on Jacopo Guarnieri for the lead-outs but today the Italian did a perfect job to make sure that Kristoff was not far back at the start of the sprint. Kristoff is unlikely to be out of position and as he is clearly the fastest guy at the moment, he is the favourite to win the stage.

 

Today the Lotto Soudal train was ready to kick into action but as André Greipel had lost the wheel of Marcel Sieberg and Greg Henderson, the German was never in contention for the sprint. This makes him somewhat of a dark horse. On paper, he is the fastest rider in this field and only the Giant-Alpecin train is able to match his Lotto Soudal boys.

 

He was set back by illness a few weeks ago but in the Volta ao Algarve he proved that he is in great condition. As he didn’t really sprint today, nobody knows if he has the speed to beat Kristoff. Furthermore, his lead-out train may deliver him on the front and usually he is very hard to beat in this kind of power sprint.

 

After a poor start to the season, Nacer Bouhanni is getting better and better and today he took his best result yet when he finished second behind Kristoff. Again the Cofidis train failed completely but the Frenchman is excellent at positioning himself and he very rarely has to start his sprint from far back.

 

The sprint clearly proved that Bouhanni currently lacks the speed to beat Kristoff. However, he showed that he is getting closer to his best and in the Giro and Vuelta it was evident that only very few riders are faster than him. If he manages to use his good positioning skills to start his sprint from a better position than Kristoff, he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Today John Degenkolb was in the perfect position for the sprint as his Giant-Alpecin train proved that they and Lotto Soudal are the best teams for the sprint. However, the German started his sprint too early and he quickly faded. Unfortunately, it confirmed the trend that he has not been sprinting very well this year and it may be hard for him to turn things around in this race. On the other hand, he has a very good lead-out and if he manages to start the sprint from the best possible position, he is usually fast in this kind of power sprint.

 

Another very strong team for the sprints is Trek but today they left Giacomo Nizzolo pretty isolated. However, the Italian showed great speed by finishing fifth despite having to move up in the wind in the finale. This confirmed the good form he showed in the prologue and if Trek can get things right, the Italian seems to have the speed to win a stage in this race.

 

Today Bryan Coquard did a very fast sprint from far back and he nearly passed Bouhanni to finish second. The sprint underlined the usual facts about the Europcar sprinter who has an incredible speed but lacks the ability to position himself. That is unlikely to change tomorrow and if he again has to start his sprint from far back, he won’t win the stage. On the other hand, he clearly has the speed to win a stage here.

 

Arnaud Demare has had a terrible start to the year as he has never really been in contention for the bunch sprints. The FDJ train is not its usual strong self and today he didn’t really get the chance to sprint. In Omloop Het Nieuwsblad he proved that his condition is good though and he is one of the select few who have the speed to win a stage in this race.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Heinrich Haussler is not a pure sprinter but all year he has shown a great turn of speed. That was the case again in today’s stage where he came fast from behind to finish fourth. The performance will have provided him with confidence and he will be eager to try again tomorrow. Unfortunately, he has been poorly positioned in most of the sprints he has done this year and he needs to overcome that to be a real contender.

 

Niccolo Bonifazio has been in great condition all year and this race could be his big breakthrough. These power sprints don’t suit him very well though and he can only rely on Davide Cimolai in the lead-outs. On the other hand, he showed his incredible turn of speed when he won a bunch sprint for fourth in the Tour Down Under and if he can position himself well, a surprise may be in store from the Italian.

 

Moreno Hofland missed Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne due to illness but today he showed that he is in very good condition. He is not perfectly suited to this kind of sprints and he doesn’t have a very good lead-out. He is unlikely to win the stage but today he showed a good turn of speed that could see him finish on the podium.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Alexander Kristoff

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Nacer Bouhanni

Outsiders: John Degenkolb, Giacomo Nizzolo, Bryan Coquard, Arnaud Demare

Jokers: Heinrich Haussler, Niccolo Bonifazio, Moreno Hofland, Jonas Vangenechten