André Greipel and Alexander Kristoff have been the strongest in the first two sprint stages of Paris-Nice and now the number of opportunities is limited for their rivals if they want to leave the race with a win. Tomorrow’s stage 3 is the final chance for the pure sprinters and with no wind forecasted, it should all come down to an exciting battle between the fastest riders in the race.

 

The course

The riders are getting closer to the Cote d’Azur and this means that the terrain gradually gets hillier. They will get a chance to slightly warm up their climbing legs in stage 3 which has a more rugged profile than the first two stages. However, the terrain is still mainly flat and the sprinters are again likely to shine before they disappear into anonymity.

 

The 179km stage brings the riders from Saint-Armand-Montrond to Saint-Pourcain-Sur-Sioule. The first part is just a continuation of the southeasterly journey from the previous day and the terrain will be similarly flat too. Gradually, however, they turn more into a southerly direction as they reach the category 3 Cote de la Croix du Chene (2.1km, 4%). From there, they continue along mainly flat roads until they hit the longest climb yet, the category 3 Col de la Bosse (2.4km, 5.1%).

 

After the long descent, the riders turn around to head back up north towards the finishing city. First they go up the small category 3 Cote de Vicq (1.6km, 5.8%) before they continue along flat roads to enter the 19.5km finishing circuit after 146.5km of racing. They will do almost a full lap of the circuit before they cross the line for the first time at the 159.5km mark where they will contest the final intermediate sprint.

 

The final part of the stage is made up of a lap of the circuit which is an almost completely flat affair. Finally, the riders will return to Saint-Pourcain-Sur-Sioule where they will tackle a flat finale. However, the final 500m may create a different kind of sprint as they have an average gradient of around 3%. The finale is pretty tricky as the riders will travel along a long straight road for several kilometres before they take the final right-hand turn with just 300m to go.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Paris-Nice has usually had some very nervous stages due to windy conditions but it seems that the 2015 edition will be a rare exception. The calm conditions in the first two stages have made for some very relaxed racing and it seems that it will be more of the same for the final flat stage of the race.

 

The riders should get the race off to a nice start with a partly cloudy sky but at this time, rain will be falling at the finish. The peloton may face some wet roads along the way but by the time, they reach the finish, it should be beautiful sunshine. The temperature will reach a maximum of a pleasant 15 degrees.

 

It will be a little windier than it has been in the first two stages but it will still only be a light wind from an easterly direction. This means that the riders will first have a cross-headwind before they turn into a crosswind. As they go up the final two climbs, they will again turn into a cross-headwind until they hit the finishing circuit where the wind will be coming from all possible directions. In the finale, there will be a headwind on the long straight road until the riders turn into a crosswind for the final 300m.

 

The favourites

The first two stages of Paris-Nice have been pretty relaxed affairs and far from the dramas that have often characterized the first part of the race. On paper, tomorrow’s stage should be the final change to use the flat, exposed roads to split things but as there is very little wind on the horizon which will mainly be a headwind, that is very unlikely to happen. Hence, the race will be decided on the climbs and the time trials.

 

Tomorrow’s stage is not only the final chance for the classics teams to split the peloton, it is also the final chance for the pure sprinters to shine. Only two of them have won a stage yet but several fast men have been close and must have been encouraged by their first performances. This means that they will be willing to lend a hand to the chase and so it is very hard to imagine that the stage won’t be one for the sprinters.

 

This also means that there is no real incentive to go on the attack and the first two stages have proved that the riders know all about their limited chances of success from an early break. Tomorrow there are a few more climbs on the menu which means that the mountains jersey will come into play. To defend it, however, the riders also have to be active in stage 4 and so it may be better to save the energy for later.

 

Nonetheless, Bretagne definitely want to defend their jersey. We expect Hivert to save himself for the harder stages but the French team definitely wants to have a rider in the group and it could again be Arnaud Gerard who takes off. The break is likely to go clear straight from the gun and will probably be made up of riders from the sprint teams.

 

Today it was not really necessary to do much chase work and it was enough for Cofidis to put Luis Angel Mate on the front to bring back the early break. Tomorrow the group could be a bit bigger but there should be plenty of interest in bringing it back. Etixx-QuickStep won’t necessarily want to defend the jersey and they may be unwilling to do too much work but Lotto Soudal and Cofidis should be willing to chase. Giant-Alpecin have the yellow jersey within reach and if things get critical, they may also come to the fore. Arnaud Demare was close to the win today and FDJ will definitely be interested in the sprint. Finally, Katusha may also lend a hand but they have a team loaded with GC riders and as they have already won a stage, they may decide to stay passive.

 

Nonetheless, there will be enough firepower to bring back the break in time for a bunch sprint. The climbs will do nothing to tire the sprinters too much and the main challenge will be the nervous riding that we can expect on the finishing circuit. Like today everybody wants to be in front and this may cause some crashes which could split the field.

 

In the end, it will come down to a battle between the fast guys and this sprint is a very special one. First of all, there is a turn just 300m from the line and to win the stage, one will probably have to be in one of the first 3 positions through that turn. This means that team support will be crucial and the strongest lead-out trains will have a massive advantage. Furthermore, the sprint is slightly uphill which favours the more powerful sprinters.

 

When it comes to sprinting, John Degenkolb got his season off to a pretty bad start in both Dubai and Ruta del Sol. While he was clearly very strong on the climbs, he had a hard time in sprints. Yesterday he failed in the sprint on stage 1 when he misread the 300m to go sign and so started his sprint way too early.

 

Today, however, he did a very good sprint and came fast from behind to take third. This shows that he is getting his legs up to speed and tomorrow’s sprint suits him down to the ground. Alongside Lotto Soudal, Giant-Alpecin are clearly the strongest lead-out train. Today they failed completely but yesterday they proved their strength when they dominated the finale.

 

That kind of team support is very important in tomorrow’s stage and if they can lead Degenkolb into the best possible position for the final turn, the German will be hard to beat. He is very strong in this kind of uphill sprints and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

André Greipel made an excellent comeback after his failure in stage 1 when he failed to stay on the wheel of his teammates in the finale. Today Lotto Soudal proved what we already knew: that the train is excellent. With team support being the key to tomorrow’s stage, Greipel could again find himself in the best possible position to start his sprint.

 

The main challenge for Greipel is to stay with his teammates as he often gets lots but if he manages to do so, he has a very big chance to make it two in a row. Despite being good in an uphill sprint, however, he may lack the power of the likes of Degenkolb and Kristoff and if he has one of those guys on his wheels, it may be hard for him to hold them off.

 

Alexander Kristoff delivered a surprisingly poor performance in today’s sprint where he drifted backwards and was passed by several riders. That was in complete contrast to his excellent performance yesterday and showed an unusual kind of inconsistency from the Norwegian.

 

However, Kristoff is clearly in very good condition and this kind of uphill sprint is very good for him. His main disadvantage is the fact that he doesn’t have a very good lead-out and despite his good ability to position himself, he is unlikely to be the first sprinter through the final turn. If he finds himself a few positions too far back, it may be too late for him.

 

When it comes to positioning, only a select few are better than Nacer Bouhanni who is tailor-made for this finish. Due to his good kick, he loves these technical finishes where the finishing straight is really short and he is very good in an uphill sprint. However, Cofidis don’t have the best lead-out and he misses his lead-out man Geoffrey Soupe who has abandoned the race. He won’t be the first sprinter through the final turn but as he won’t be far behind, he may win the stage.

 

After a terrible start to the year, Arnaud Demare finally got things right in today’s sprint and he was very close to winning the stage. Unfortunately, he ran out of metres but the performance will have boosted his confidence a lot. He loves this kind of uphill sprints but as FDJ haven’t excelled in the lead-outs, it may be hard for him to be in a good position for the sprint.

 

Another in-form sprinter with a good lead-out is Giacomo Nizzolo. Until now, the Trek team haven’t really got things right but on paper they may be able to control the finale. Nizzolo proved in stage 1 that he is one of the fastest riders in the peloton and he is very good in an uphill sprint. If Trek hits the front in the finale, he has a chance to finish it off.

 

Michael Matthews has had a hard time in the first two flat sprints but his Orica-GreenEDGE team have confirmed that their lead-out is very good. Tomorrow’s uphill sprint should suit him a lot better and in this kind of sprint he has the speed to beat the best. With Daryl Impey and Mitchell Docker to support him, he may be the first rider through the final turn and then he has the speed to finish it off.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Borut Bozic may no longer be a prolific top sprinter but despite being on his own, he is usually very good at positioning himself for the sprints. This is very important in this kind of stage. Furthermore, he won a very tough uphill sprint in the Tour de Suisse a few years ago and this proves that he has the skills for this kind of finale. He is not the fastest rider in the bunch but in a sprint where positioning is important he could do well.

 

Another rider who is very good in an uphill sprint is Moreno Hofland. Last year the young Dutchman won such a sprint in Paris-Nice and he will be eager to repeat that performance. Unfortunately, LottoNL-Jumbo are not the strongest team for these finishes and even though he is clearly sprinting excellently at the moment, he may lose out due to a poor position.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: John Degenkolb

Other winner candidates: André Greipel, Alexander Kristoff

Outsiders: Nacer Bouhanni, Arnaud Demare, Giacomo Nizzolo, Michael Matthews

Jokers: Moreno Hofland, Borut Bozic