Until now, Paris-Nice has been a festival for the sprinters but from tomorrow the nature of the race will change. True to the tradition, the hills start to appear on the route when the riders get closer to Nice and the riders face their first serious test in the finale of tomorrow's stage when they tackle the brutally steep Cote du Mont Brouilly which will give the first indications of who has what it takes to win this year's edition of the Race to the Sun.

 

The course

It's time to continue the journey towards Nice when the riders travel in a straight line in a southeasterly direction from Nevers to Belleville on a 201.5km stage. The first part of the stage doesn't offer much change compared to recent days as the roads are completely flat, with the only highlight being the first intermediate sprint at the 56.5km mark.

 

However, the riders reach the outskirts of the hilly Massif-Central when they approach the finish in Belleville and this means that the roads become significantly more undulating. The first signal of the fact that the race is about to change its nature comes 64km from the finish when the riders go up the category 3 Cote de La Clayette (1km, 5.4%) but the real start of the "new race" doesn't come until the category 3  Col de Champ Juin (8.5km, 2.9%) has been tackled 45km from the finish. It is followed almost immediately  by the category 3 Col de Crie (1.7km, 4.5%) but a long, gradual descent means that the pair of climbs will play no major role.

 

The riders contest the final intermediate sprint 22.5km from the finish and the real finale starts 500m further up the road when the riders hit the bottom of the category 2 Cote de Mont Brouilly (3km, 8.4%). It is a very irregular climb which contains several steep sections, interspersed with shorter, flat stretches that give a little room for recovery. The first part is the easiest but the climb just gets steeper and steeper. The second kilometre has a gradient of around 9% while the average gradient from the 2km to 2.5km mark is a massive 12.3%, with the section having a very steep 25% stretch. The final 500m are slightly easier at 9.2%.

 

At its top, 14.5km remain and they consist of a fast downhill and then a slightly descending stretch of 10km to the finish in Belleville. Again the finish is rather technical as a long straight road with several roundabouts give way for four sharp turns that come in quick succession just after the passage of the flamme rouge. They lead onto the 800m finishing straight that is 6m wide. The final kilometre is slightly uphill with a 1.4% average gradient and that is where it will be decided who will follow Thomas Voeckler, Robbie McEwen, and Fabio Baldato as recent stage winners in Belleville.

 

The weather

Until now, the Paris-Nice weather has been really beautiful and that won't change for tomorrow's stage. Again the riders will treated with bright sunshine and the temperatures will reach a maximum of a very pleasant 17 degrees.

 

2014 has been one of the rare years where the wind has failed to play a role in the opening stages on the plains in Northern France. It has traditionally played much less of a role in the later stages and there is certainly no reason to fear any crosswinds spectacle in tomorrow's stage. There will only be a light wind from a southern direction which will turn into a southeasterly direction as the day goes on. This means that the riders will generally have a cross-headwind which will turn into a direct headwind later in the stage. There will be a crosswind on the climb of Cote du Mont Brouilly and its descent while there will be a cross-headwind on the flat run-in to the finish, with a tailwind for the final 800m.

 

The favourites

Until now, the race has been a very controlled affair for the sprinters but that scenario will now entirely change. Tomorrow's stage is one of the first opportunities for the GC riders and as they don't have an awful lot of those, they have to grab it with both hands. The Cote du Mont Brouilly is certainly one of the most selective climbs of the entire race and this means that we can expect the climbers to go full gas on its steep slopes.

 

Until now, the scrip of the stages have been written well in advance and this has meant that no one has been really interested in getting involved in the early action. That scenario should change tomorrow as the lumpy nature of the terrain means that the escapees will fancy their chances. The riders will have the added incentive of a potential stint in the leader's jersey and so we can expect an much faster and more aggressive start to the stage. It will probably take some time for the day's break to form and team tactics will also be important when the composition of the break is determined.

 

We can't expect Giant-Shimano to do too much to defend the leader's jersey and so it will mainly be left to others to chase the early breakaway down. With the GC being rather close, however, there is very little chance that the early breakaway will stay away to the finish. It will probably be left to teams like Sky and Lampre-Merida to take responsibility for the chase to make sure that their GC options are not hampered by a breakaway that stays away to the finish. Depending on the composition of the break, they may also get some help from IAM, Omega Pharma-Quick Step, and Astana that all have overall ambitions in this race.

 

We could very well see the race kick into action when we reach the hilly zone, with non-GC riders like Thomas Voeckler trying to open the race from afar. Due to the long downhill stretch with a headwind between the Col de Crie and the Cote du Mont Brouilly, however, the main riders will save it all for the Cote du Mont Brouilly. On such a short climb with a narrow road, positioning is key and this means that the battle for position will be really intense in the run-in to the climb. This will prompt an acceleration that is likely to have swallowed up all escapees by the time we reach the Cote du Mont Brouilly.

 

The ascent is so steep that it has the potential to rip the peloton to pieces and the best climbers will be eager to test each other on its slopes. At the summit, only a very select group of 1-3 riders are likely to be left and the peloton will have been split into groups of very few riders.

 

The subsequent descent is technical and will be an option for the good descenders to either get back or to increase their advantage but the real challenge for the front group will be the long flat roads that lead to the finish. There will be some kind of regrouping and we could easily see the stage end as a pursuit between a small front group and a bigger group behind. The straight and the headwind will make it difficult for the escapees to stay away and it requires a very good understanding to keep it going all the way to the finish line in Belleville.

 

The most likely outcome is that there will be some kind of regrouping and that a 20-rider group will sprint it out the finish but as the GC riders have very few chances in this race, there may be an incentive for the best climbers to work together after the top. Hence, it is certainly not impossible for a much smaller group to stay away.

 

The most likely scenario is that a small group will sprint it out in the end and this makes the stage a perfect fit for Simon Gerrans. The Australian was in excellent condition at the beginning of the season when he won the Tour Down Under and with this course, he will have had some ambitions to win the race overall.

 

Those hopes were all crushed on the opening day when he was caught up in the crash and lost 1.09. However, he escaped mostly unhurt from the incident and the last few days he has done a lot of work for his sprinters. Tomorrow it will be time for himself to kick into action and as Paris-Nice is a big goal for him, he should be in great condition despite the fact that he has only raced in Europe once prior to the race.

 

As an Ardennes specialist, Gerrans will have no problem overcoming a 3km climb. However, this very steep one doesn't suit him perfectly and he is unlikely to be among the very first when they crest the summit. However, we expect some kind of regrouping to take place and if that happens, Gerrans should be in the front group.

 

Gerrans is a very fast finisher who can even win small bunch sprints as he did in last year's Volta a Catalunya and Vuelta al Pais Vasco and most will remember how he beat Peter Sagan to win a stage of last year's Tour de France. A final group is likely to contain several fast riders but among them, Gerrans should be the fastest. He is a master in picking specific stages and he will probably have picked this one as his best chance in the race. If he is there at the finish, he will be hard to beat.

 

Another very fast rider is Zdenek Stybar. The Czech is more of a classics riders than a climber but the Mont Brouilly is not very long and should suit him well. After all, he was the strongest riders in the Ardennes queen stage of last year's Eneco Tour that finished on the Cote de la Redoute and this makes him a candidate in a terrain like this.

 

On such a steep climb, it will be hard for him to keep up with the likes of Rui Costa and Carlos Betancur but like Gerrans, he will have time to get back on. He can expect to have support from Jan Bakelants in the finale and this will be important when it comes to chase down any escapees. In a sprint, he is very fast as he proved when he beat pure sprinter Maximilano Richeze to win a stage of the Eneco Tour and tomorrow's stage would be a great chance for him to get his GC campaign off to a good start.

 

Another very fast rider is Tony Gallopin who will have several options in this year's race. The Frenchman has made this race his first big target and he is keen to finish high up on GC. He may not have excelled so far this year but as the most recent winner of the Clasica San Sebastian he has all the characteristics to shine in this terrain.

 

Like Stybar and Gerrans, he may not be able to follow the best climbers in the race but he will have time to get back in contention. In a sprint finish, he is fast and he can expect to have riders like  Maxime Monfort, Tim Wellens and Sander Armee for support in the finale. That will be a big advantage for the new Lotto rider who would love to give his team their first win.

 

So far Geraint Thomas has been the winner among the GC riders as he has both scored a bonus second and made the split on the second day. This means that he is already a bit ahead of his rivals and his attentive riding near the front shows that he is very keen to capitalize on a rare chance to lead Sky in a stage race.

 

Thomas proved in the Vuelta a Andalucia that he is climbing excellently at the moment as he was probably even stronger than teammate Richie Porte in that race. Tomorrow's climb may be a bit too steep to suit him perfectly as he is no pure climber but we certainly won't rule out that he can match the best. If he arrives at the finish with riders like Carlos Betancur, Vincenzo Nibali, Romain Bardet and Rui Costa, he would have a very good chance in a sprint finish. If a bigger group gets to the line, he will also have a shot in the sprint.

 

Francesco Gavazzi excels in these kind of sprints that come at the end of hard stages and the Astana rider will be a great winner candidate. He showed great climbing condition in the Tour of Oman, and he prefers climbs with a length like the Mont Brouilly. Unfortunately, he has a habit of never winning those final sprint but he needs to buck the trend at some point. With riders like Nibali, Jakob Fuglsang, and Enrico Gasparotto all expected to feature in the finale, he can expect a lot of support in a sprint finish.

 

Due to Tejay van Garderen's withdrawal, BMC have been forced to change their plans and their best shot at an overall win may now be classics rider Greg Van Avermaet. He showed his intentions when he sprinted for bonus seconds on stage one and his showing in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad proves that he is riding really well at the moment. He may have been beaten by Ian Stannard in the sprint that day but he is a very fast rider and he would have a good chance in case of a sprint from a small group.

 

That can also be said for Sylvain Chavanel who may not be known as a sprinter but he is actually very fast. He proved that when he won a bunch sprint in last year's Paris-Nice and he is always riding extremely well in this race. The final climb is too steep to suit him perfectly and he will probably be a little behind the best at the top but he is an excellent descender. In a group sprint, it would be unwise to rule out Chavanel.

 

We expect the strongest riders on the climb to be Betancur, Costa, and Bardet and if a small group containing those riders can combine forces and stay away to the finish, Costa would have a great shot at his first victory in the rainbow jersey. The Portuguese is a fast sprinter who would have a great chance of beating those riders in a sprint finish. Even if the group is bigger, he will have a chance and he will certainly go all out to score some bonus seconds tomorrow.

 

Finally, we will select some jokers. If the final climb proves less selective than expected, an even bigger group may arrive at the finish and this could open the door for some very fast finishers that may not be at the very front on the ascent but who will not be that far behind either. Look out for riders like an in-form Jose Joaquin Rojas who rode really well in Vuelta a Murcia, Samuel Dumoulin who was really strong in the GP Lugano, Fabio Felline, Reinardt Van Rensburg, and Armindo Fonseca to capitalize from any hesitation from the best climbers in the race.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Simon Gerrans

Other winner candidates: Zdenek Stybar, Tony Gallopin

Outsiders: Geraint Thomas, Francesco Gavazzi, Greg Van Avermaet, Rui Costa, Sylvain Chavanel

Jokers: Jose Joaquin Rojas, Samuel Dumoulin, Fabio Felline, Reinardt Van Rensburg, Armindo Fonseca