After three days for the sprinters, it is finally time to find who will be in contention for the overall win in Paris-Nice. In addition to the final time trial on the Col d’Eze, tomorrow’s queen stage will be the most decisive test of the race and even though the climb of the Croix de Chaubouret is not among the hardest in France, it will definitely be enough to allow the climbers to make a difference.

 

The course

For the GC riders, the first three road stages have been all about getting safely through the potential carnage. They have all wanted to get to the mountains as quickly as possible and after four days of racing, they will finally get their chance to shine in the queen stage of the race. Paris-Nice has rarely had any major summit finishes as the early date makes it risky business but this year a big climbing day will play a very important role in determining the winner of the race.

 

The 204km stage brings the riders from Varennes-sur-Allier to the top of the Croix de Chaubouret at 1201m above sea level. The climb is located just outside Saint-Etienne which is in a pretty hilly part of France and the flat part of this race is now over.  From the start, the riders head in a southeasterly direction and it gradually gets hillier as the day goes on.

 

After a flat first part, the climbing starts with the category 3 Cote de Cheval Rigon (5.9km, 3.7%). A very short descent leads straight onto the category 3 Col du Beau Louis (6.1km, 3.5%). A few moments later, the riders will contest the first intermediate sprint and that signals the end of the first climbing block as the riders head onto flat or slightly descending roads in the middle part of the stage.

 

The finale starts after 137.7km of racing when the riders turn east to zigzag their way through the hilly area around Saint-Etienne. First they go up the category 3 Cote-de-Saint-Bonne-les-Oules (2.8km, 3.7%) which leads directly onto the lower slopes of the Cote de Saint-Heand (1km, 5.1%). Then a short descent leads to the first category 2 climb of the race, Cote de la Gimond (1.8km, 6.5%).

 

From there, 45km still remain. First the first longer descent of the race brings the riders to the category 3 Col de la Gachet (5km, 4.4%) which is followed by the short category 3 Cote de la Croix Blanche (1.8km, 4.9%). A long descent now leads to the city of Saint-Chamond where the final intermediate sprint will signal the start of the brutal finale.

 

The Croix de Chabouret is a 10km category 1 climb which has an average gradient of 6.7% and it is a very regular affair. The first 5km mainly have a gradient between 6% and 7% and then the climb gets steeper. The final 5km vary between 7.1% and 7.8% with only the penultimate kilometre offering a little room for recovery with its 6% gradient. The final kilometre is one of the hardest as it kicks up with a gradient of 7.4%. There are no major technical challenges as the riders will follow a mostly straight road for the final 5km.

 

The climb has never been used for a Paris-Nice stage before and so it will be unknown territory for most of the riders.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders have had excellent weather conditions for the first part of Paris-Nice and tomorrow seems to be the best day yet. However, it would be a good idea to enjoy the next two days as rain is forecasted on the Cote d’Azur in the weekend.

 

Tomorrow there will be lots of sunshine but it may be a bit cloudier towards the end of the stage. The temperature will reach a pleasant maximum of 13 degrees and there will only be a light wind from a northerly direction. This means that the riders will have a cross-tailwind for most of the day until they hit the hilly zone in the finale. Here there will first be a crosswind before the riders turn into a tailwind at the bottom of the penultimate climb. The riders will enjoy that tailwind for the rest of the stage.

 

The favourites

For GC riders, the first part of Paris-Nice is usually a long nervous wait where they just hope to get safely through the potentially windy conditions and reach the climbs in Southern France without any significant time losses. This year that has been a pretty easy task as the lack of wind has made the first two stages some of the easiest in recent Paris-Nice history.

 

However, the lack of real racing also means that many are a bit uncertain about what to expect from themselves. They have had very little chance to test their legs in real racing conditions and today offered them the first chance to gauge how strong they are. Tomorrow they need to be fully ready though as the queen stage will be one of two stages that will decide the race and even though it may not turn out to be as decisive as the Col d’Eze time trial, it will play a very important role in determining the final GC.

 

Until now, the riders have had very easy starts to the stages as only the Bretagne team have been really keen on animating the race. That should change tomorrow. In general, breakaway have a better chance in hillier stages and so that kind of stages are usually a lot more aggressive. Furthermore, there may be a tactical advantage in having a rider in the early break and finally, the mountains jersey will be up for grabs.

 

This means that it will probably take a bit longer for the early break to be formed. With the break having very limited chances, it won’t be a case of an hour of constant attacking but we should see a bit of aggression before the major teams are content with the composition of the break. Jonathan Hivert may be keen on taking back the mountains jersey and he could find himself in the group. The same goes for Philippe Gilbert who saved some energy in today’s finale and seems to have made the mountains jersey a small goal as he continues his build-up for Milan-Sanremo.

 

Orica-GreenEDGE will of course do the early chasing but it won’t be their task to bring the break back. Michael Matthews has no chance of defending the jersey and their GC rider Simon Yates is not one of the leading contenders. Instead, it will be up to other teams to bring back the escapees and it will be interesting to see who takes the responsibility.

 

Fabio Aru and Rafal Majka both lost too much time in the prologue and they need to maximize their gains in this stage. Hence, they need to make this race as hard as possible and so we can expect those two teams to lead the chase and especially to up the pace in the hilly final third. The Kazakh team are loaded with strong climbers and they could make it a really tough affair. Both teams need the bonus seconds too and so the early break is very unlikely to stay away. With Richie Porte being the major favourite, Sky should also lend a hand and Tejay van Garderen is extremely confident at the moment, meaning that BMC will also be keen to help. There will be lots of firepower in the chase and those four teams all want to make the race hard.

 

On the final climb, we can expect Sky to use their usual pace-setting strategy and we can expect riders like Ben Swift, Bradley Wiggins, Lars Petter Nordhaug and Nicolas Roche to set a brutal pace while Geraint Thomas and Richie Porte will be protected. BMC used a similar tactic in the Tour of Oman where an in-form Ben Hermans demolished the field and if Sky run out of power, they should come to the fore.

 

In the end, it will come down to a battle between the GC riders. The final climb is not very tough but luckily the steepest sections come near the top where a selection can be made. Very importantly, there will be a tailwind which will make a climb like this one a lot more selective.

 

Two years ago Richie Porte laid the foundations for his overall victory by winning a very similar stage and the Australian must again be the rider to beat. Since the start of the year, he has been in incredible condition, winning the queen stages in both Australian and Algarve. His performance in the latter race was outstanding as he had worked hard in the final 10km for Thomas but still had enough left to distance everybody else, including Michal Kwiatkowski, on the Alto do Malhao.

 

Already in November, Porte was reportedly 5kg lighter than usual and he has been very focused on his climbing. After the prologue, Sky were very pleased with the result as the Australian is in “climbing mode” at the moment. This kind of climb that is regular and not too steep suits him down to the ground and on paper, only Fabio Aru is able to match him in the mountains. Being the in-form rider at the moment and very motivated, Porte is our favourite to win the stage.

 

The rider that could potentially beat him is Fabio Aru. The Astana captain is a pure climber and in last year’s Vuelta he was now far behind the likes of Froome and Contador on the climbs. This year he is likely to become stronger and he will soon be able to match the very best.

 

However, his condition is very uncertain as this is his season debut. He has been training at altitude and is the Astana leader but even his team don’t really know what to expect from him. We can’t read too much from his prologue result as that stage didn’t suit him but he has been attentive in the first stages, indicating that he believes in his chances. If he wants to win the race, he has to make a move tomorrow and even though the climb is clearly too easy to suit him well, his strong climbing legs could see him take the win.

 

Rafal Majka is another pure climber who has to benefit maximally from this stage. As usual, the Tinkoff-Saxo rider has extreme confidence in his own abilities and before the Tour of Oman, he even found it incredible how well he was feeling. In that race, he came up short but since then he will definitely have improved his condition.

 

On paper, Majka is not at Porte’s and Aru’s level but he is only set to get stronger from now on. Unlike those two riders, he won’t do the Giro and so he can allow himself to have a peak in the spring. He would have preferred a harder climb but there is no doubt that he will be among the best.

 

Tejay van Garderen suffered a lot on the climbs in his first years as a professional where he mainly laid the foundations for his stage race results in the time trials. Last year, however, he took a massive step up when he delivered great performances in races like the Tour of Oman, Volta a Catalunya and the Tour de France. This year he seems to have improved even more as he rode outstandingly well in the Tour of Oman. Last year he was ill in this race but usually he is very strong in this race. He will benefit from a hard pace from Sky and he could turn out to be the strongest rider.

 

Until now, Rui Costa has flown under the radar but there is no reason to suggest that the former world champion is not riding strongly. Despite working for Rafael Valls in Oman, he finished sixth in the queen stage and he is always very strong at this time of the season. He is no pure climber but this kind of climb should suit him pretty well. Furthermore, he is fast in a sprint which could be an advantage if the race turns out to be less selective.

 

Andrew Talansky did a very poor time trial but the American still seems to have lots of confidence. Cannondale-Garmin have done a lot of work to keep him protected and Paris-Nice is one of three very big goals for him this spring. At his best, Talansky is a very good climber as he proved in last year’s Dauphiné and he has proved that he knows how to find his form for this race. The final climb suits him really well and if his poor start was just a question of a lack of racing speed, he should be very strong.

 

Romain Bardet is developing into one of the best climbers in the world and he has been riding strongly all year. In Andalusia, he was the best of the rest behind Froome and Contador and only a puncture prevented him from a spot on the podium. Like Majka and Aru, he lost a lot of time in the prologue and he is a very aggressive rider. That may pay off on this kind of climb.

 

Wilco Kelderman had a breakthrough 2014 season and nothing suggests that he won’t take another step up in 2015. He has had a very gradual build-up to this race and was already at a decent level in the Ruta del Sol. His season seems to be very similar to the one he had last year when he was flying (and very unlucky) in Paris-Nice. His prologue was not super but on this kind of climb he should be among the best.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is one of the dark horses for this stage. The Pole has never been shining on the longer climbs and a 10km ascent should be too much for him. However, he is a very talented rider and he is still searching for his limits. We doubt that he will be good enough to stay with the best on such a long climb but with his fast sprint he will be a threat if he is still there at the end.

 

Benat Intxausti had a terrible 2014 season but in 2015 he seems to be back to his best. He rode very strongly in Andalusia and here he gets a rare chance to lead the team. He has been riding very carelessly near the back of the field in the first stages but Movistar still believe in his chances. If he has the legs, he had in Andalusia, he should be among the best.

 

Majka is not the only Tinkoff-Saxo card. Robert Kiserlovski is a very good climber whose main weakness seems his tendency to fade towards the end of a grand tour. In this race, that won’t be a problem and he is usually very strong at this time of the year. His only previous racing came at the Dubai Tour which didn’t suit him but he knows how to time his form for his targets.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Richie Porte

Other winner candidates: Fabio Aru, Rafal Majka

Outsiders: Tejay van Garderen, Rui Costa, Andrew Talansky, Romain Bardet

Jokers: Wilco Kelderman, Benat Intxausti, Robert Kiserlovski, Simon Spilak, Ben Hermans