Geraint Thomas and Tom-Jelte Slagter emerged  as the strongest when the GC riders tested each other for the first time in this year's Paris-Nice. The duo can expect to come under attack when the race continue with another hilly stage but with a much easier final climb, the strongest sprinters may be looking to put their fast finish on show yet another time.

 

The course

The climbing legs will be back in action for the fifth day of racing which is another hilly affair. The riders will continue their journey towards the sun when they travel 153km in a straight line from Creche-sur-Saone to Rive-de-Gier in a southerly direction. Like yesterday, the stage may be divided into two parts, with an opening mostly flat section being followed by a hilly finale. Unlike yesterday, there is a couple of category 3 climbs in the flat opening part as the riders will tackle the Col de Brouilly (1.8km, 5.1%) and the Cote de Plantigny (2.3km, 3.7%) at the 26.5km and the 39.5km mark respectively.

 

The hilly finale kicks off when the riders have contested the first intermediate sprint in Brindas at the 87.5km mark and passed through the feed zone in Thurins 7km furthers up the road. From there they head straight up the long category 3 Cote de Saint-Martin-en-Haut (8.6km, 4.5%). At the top, 50km remain and they first consist of a short rolling section and then a long descent to the second intermediate sprint which is located 26.5km from the finish.

 

Like yesterday, there is a category 2 climb in the finale as the riders head straight up the Cote de Sainte-Catherine (12.5km, 2.8%). The top is located 12.5km from the finish and they are almost all downhill. There are a number of corners between the 5km and 2km to go marks as the riders finish the descent but the final 2.5km consist of a long straight road, with the only challenge being a roundabout 200m from the line. The descent finishes 2km from the finish and from there the road is only very slightly ascending to the finish in Rive-de-Gier.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Not much changes about the weather these days as France - and most of Europe - is currently enjoying summerlike conditions and beautiful spring weather. Tomorrow will be another day with bright sunshine in France and the temperatures will reach a very pleasant maximum of 17 degrees.

 

Again there is no reason to fear that the wind will wreak havoc on the peloton. There will only be a light wind from a northeasterly direction that will pick up a bit as the day goes on but will have no major impact on the racing. The riders will generally have a cross-tailwind until they reach the final circuit. There will mostly be a crosswind on the final climb and it subsequent descent but the riders will turn into a tailwind for the final 2.5km of the stage.

 

The favourites

As expected the GC battle broke out in today's fourth stage and the drama gave the first indications of potential winners of the race. At the moment, Geraint Thomas seems to be the strongest rider in the race and even though Tom-Jelte Slagter had a great ride, the punchy Ardennes specialist could get into difficulties later in the race when the climbs get a bit longer.

 

Actually, that will already be the case in tomorrow's stage which is made up much like today's stage but the climbing is so easy that the GC riders will have no problems hanging on. An easy start gives way for a tough finale, with a category 2 climb being located close to the line.

 

There are two main differences between today's and tomorrow's stage. First of all, the final climb is significantly easier in tomorrow's stage than the brutal Cote du Mont Saint Brouilly that featured at the end of today's stage. The Cote de Saint-Catherine may be a much longer affair but with an average gradient of just 2.8%, it should not be too tough and the selection should be much less. On the other hand, the final part consists mainly of descent, meaning that it will be much easier to stay away to the finish as there is only a short flat section in the end.

 

Time gaps have now started to open up and this means that - at least on paper - there is a chance that an early breakaway will stay away. This means that we should be in for a rather animated start to the stage and it will probably take some time for the break to form. However, several teams will have marked this stage out as an opportunity and there is only a small chance that the break will make it. As the start is rather easy, those teams will be able to make sure that the break is not too big.

 

Of course Team Sky will be responsible for the main chase work and as the gaps are still not overly big, they will keep things firmly under control. Giant-Shimano, Orica-GreenEDGE, and maybe Ag2r will fancy their chances on this stage and they will probably move ahead to close it down if Sky are content to let the break stay away.

 

The hardest climb is the penultimate one and we could very well see a few teams try to ride tempo on that ascent to make things harder. Due to the long stretch between the two final climbs, however, we should not see any major attacks on that climb.

 

It will all come down to the Cote de Saint-Catherine. There may be a small plateau near the top which makes the average gradient slightly deceptive but the climb should not make too much of a difference. Of course we will see attacks but Team Sky will be keen to set that steady tempo all the way that makes it very difficult to get away and we doubt that things will explode.

 

Some may try to attack on the descent as well and that may be the best chance of getting away. However, the most likely scenario is that a reduced bunch will sprint it out in Rive-de-Gier.

 

This turns John Degenkolb into the major favourite. It is no secret that the German is a great climber but for him to do so well on a 25% climb was a slight surprise. Being in that kind of condition, he will be very difficult to drop on tomorrow's easier slopes and he will relish the long, slightly uphill finishing straight.

 

Of course he won't have his excellent lead-out train at his disposal as many will have been dropped but Dries Devenyns, Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg and maybe Koen De Kort should be up there to help position him for the sprint. The fact that the sprint comes at the end of a hard race will only be to his advantage and he will surely be the rider to beat.

 

Today we had put our money on Simon Gerrans but the Australian is still feeling the effects of his recent illness and he was dropped very early on the final climb. Instead, it was another Orica-GreenEDGE rider who shone as Michael Matthews found himself winning the sprint in the first chase group.

 

Matthews not only survived the final climb among the best climbers, he even seemed to be one of the strongest. Most of the time he was at the very front of the lead group and he never appeared to be in any danger of getting dropped.

 

In fact, it should come as no surprise that Matthews is climbing so well. In last year's Tour of Utah, he even dropped Francisco Mancebo on a major mountain. There is no way that Matthews will get into difficulty tomorrow and today's stage should have given Orica-GreenEDGE some ideas for tomorrow.

 

The stage presents a formidable opportunity for Matthews to come away with the stage win that is the main target for the Australian team and they will probably try to make the race hard for Degenkolb. With Gerrans and Michael Albasini both struggling, that may be a hard task but riders like Jens Keukeleire and Simon Yates should be able to do some damage. The uphill finishing straight suits Matthews well and he may be less fatigued than Degenkolb in the end. On paper he is not as fast as the German but at the end of such a hilly race, things are different and Matthews has a great shot at the win.

 

Today Thomas proved that he is here to win the race overall but it was evident that Sky had a two-pronged attack. Thomas should try to follow the GC riders but Edvald Boasson Hagen was also trying to stay up there to contest a sprint finish. In the end, the gradients got a bit too steep for the big Norwegian but tomorrow's climb should suit him much better. In the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, he proved that he is currently in excellent condition and even though it is hard for him to win real bunch sprints, he is a fast rider at the end of a hard race. He may have to sacrifice his chance to help Thomas but if there is an opportunity for him, he will try to grab it.

 

It is no secret that Jose Joaquin Rojas is an excellent climber and we were not the least bit surprised to find him in the first chase group. After all, he was 6th in the recent Vuelta a Murcia which finished on a tough climb. Rojas should make it over tomorrow's climb with the best and then he should be one of the fastest rider in the front group. In stage 3, he proved his speed when he did a very good sprint to come fast from behind to take 3rd and he should only be better at the end of a tough race. Unfortunately, he has a habit of never winning the sprints - today he was only fifth in the sprint for 4th but don't rule out a victory for the fast Spaniard.

 

Tiny Bryan Coquard has not yet had the success that he was striving for but the Frenchman still have a chance to grab a win. That one comes tomorrow as he is not only a very fast sprinter but also a good climber. In last year's hilly GP de Quebec, he almost made it to the finish with the front group and today he finished less than a minute behind Slagter. Coquard hopes to one day become a rider that is able to win even rather hilly races and he is not too far off that mark at the moment. If things go well, he could survive tomorrow's climb and then he could easily be the fastest rider in the front group. When it comes to speed, he is probably unrivaled in the Paris-Nice peloton but he often finds himself poorly positioned. In a sprint from a smaller, less organized group, he may have a better chance and even though the climbing will have taken away some of his top speed, he should be up there.

 

Moreno Hofland already has one stage win and he has another chance to take one tomorrow. Today's climbing was a bit too tough for the in-form Dutchman but tomorrow's hilly affair is the kind of stage that he loves. Hofland is certainly not a rider for the pure bunch sprints but if it comes at the end of a hard day, he is usually much fresher than his faster rivals. If he survives the climbing, he make take the second one tomorrow.

 

Finally, we will select our jokers. As said, we think that the best chance to get away is on the descent and there a couple of excellent descenders in the peloton. Vincenzo Nibali of course springs to mind but he is not fast enough to win the stage. Instead, we will point to Zdenek Stybar and Sylvain Chavanel. They find themselves in completely opposite situations but they are both good on the descents and have a fast sprint. Stybar will be eager to gain some time on GC while Chavanel will be eager to make amends for today's poor showing. Look out for the duo to try to escape when it all gets fast at the end of tomorrow's stage.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: John Degenkolb

Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Edvald Boasson Hagen

Outsiders: Jose Joaquin Rojas, Bryan Coquard, Moreno Hofland

Jokers: Zdenek Stybar, Sylvain Chavanel