Team Sky dealt their rivals a big blow in the first big GC battle at Paris-Nice and their rivals may need some time to lick their wounds. They may get a chance to do so in tomorrow’s stage which is a tricky affair that seems to suit the puncheurs or a strong breakaway. However, splits could occur in the finale and so everyone needs to be on their toes to avoid losing unfortunate time.

 

The course

The sprinters had a tough day on stage 4 but they will be pleased to get back into flatter terrain on stage 5. However, only the strongest of them may have their say in a stage whose short climb to the finish makes it a perfect opportunity for the puncheurs.

 

The 192km route brings the riders from the hills in Saint-Etienne to a finish in Rasteau and the start couldn’t be more brutal. The first 12.2km are up the category 1 Col de la Republique (4.5%) and this is likely to put the sprinters into difficulty right from the beginning of the stage.

 

However, they will be pleased to learn that the descent leads to along southerly journey towards Rastaeu in a part of France that is mainly flat. However, the flat roads will give way for a hillier finale as there are a few ascents to negotiate in the otherwise mainly flat second half of the race.

 

The first chance to test the sprinters comes after 125km of racing when the riders reach the summit of the category 3 Col du Deves (4.1km, 4.4%). Then it’s back onto flat roads before it is time for the category 2 Cote de l’Ayrac (6.2km, 4%). From its top, 44.5km still remain and they are mainly flat. However, there is a nasty sting in the tail as the category 3 Cote de Buisson (1.8km, 4.3%) comes just 8.5km from the finish.

 

The real challenge, however, is the tricky finale. After a slightly descending run-in to Rasteau, the sprinters will be unpleasantly surprised to learn that the final 500m are on a small climb with a gradient of around 8%, making it a finish more for puncheurs than pure sprinters.

 

Furthermore, the finale is pretty technical. After a mostly straight run with just two roundabouts along winding roads, the riders face a sharp right-hand turn and what almost looks like a U-turn before they take the final right-hand turn onto the 500m finishing straight. With a width of just 6m, the rod is also pretty narrow.

 

Rasteau last hosted a stage finish in 2006 but back then it was a different finale that allowed Tom Booenn to beat Allan Davis and Stefan Schumacher in a sprint. In 2004, the scene was set for a more dramatic race when Alexandre Vinokourov reached the finish just 4 seconds ahead of a small 8-rider chase group that was led home by overall leader Jörg Jaksche.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The excellent Paris-Nice weather is about to come to an end but the riders should get one final day in the sun before rain is set to make its presence felt in the weekend. Having taken the start under a sunny sky, a few more clouds may appear as the day goes on but with a temperature of 16 degrees, it will be a nice day in the saddle.

 

There will barely be any wind, with just a light breeze blowing from a south-westerly direction which means that there will first be a tailwind on the Col de la Republique and the descent and a cross-tailwind in the long run to Rasteau. In the final 5km, there will be a crosswind from the right.

 

The favourites

After three flat stages, the GC riders finally got a chance to test themselves in today’s stage and apart from Sky, most of them will need to lick their wound. The GC battle may be resumed on stage 6 but will all come down to the final time trial on the Col d’Eze and this should open the door for other riders tomorrow.

 

Stage 5 is a very tricky one that could lend itself to two different outcomes. With the difficult finale, it is certainly not a day for the pure sprinters but it is tailor-made for the puncheurs. However, the tough start also means that a very strong breakaway could get clear on the Col de la Republique and if that group turns out to be too strong, they may make it to the finish.

 

The key to the stage is probably Orica-GreenEDGE. The finish suits Michael Matthews down to the ground and the Australian team is one of the strongest in the race. They will probably have to do the majority of the chase work to bring the break back and a lot will depend on how they approach the stage.

 

Everybody knows that this could be a day for a breakaway and so the race will definitely get off to a brutally fast start. Lots of attacks will be launched from the start and it will be very hard for the GC teams to make sure that no dangerous rider escapes. The many attacks will make for some fast racing and this means that many sprinters will probably get dropped at this early point.

 

Such a tough start means that a big group of strong climbers are likely to have gone clear when they reach the summit and then it is time to take stock of the situation for Orica-GreenEDGE. After this start, however, there is a big chance that some of the escapees are pretty close to the overall lead and so they may get some help from some of the GC teams. To avoid the chase, the team may also try to send riders like Daryl Impey, Jens Keukeleire, Simon Clarke, Michael Albasini and Simon Yates on the attack and this will of course enhance the chances for the breakaway.

 

The stage is also the final chance for John Degenkolb and he could also have his say in this finale. Giant-Alpecin may lend a hand to the chase and the same could be the case for BMC who have Philippe Gilbert for this finish. However, the American team is likely to be fully focused on the GC. The finale is probably a bit too tough for Alexander Kristoff and André Greipel and so Katusha and Lotto Soudal will probably not do any work. The stage could also be a good one for Michal Kwiatkowski who may want a few bonus seconds before the time trial. It may be that Etixx-QuickStep will join forces with the sprint teams.

 

The outcome of the stage will depend on the composition of the group and the key factor is whether Orica-GreenEDGE has a rider in the group. With Giant-Alpecin also interested in a sprint finish, however, we would put our money on a sprint finish.

 

In that case, it is hard to look beyond Michael Matthews as the big favourite. The Australian is obviously in excellent condition and he is very hard to beat in this kind of finish. Last year he won stages in both the Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a Espana that were much harder than this one and it should not be too hard for him. Furthermore, he is lighter than he was last year and reportedly he climbs even better. He proved that in today’s queen stage where he hung onto the best for quite a while.

 

Matthews is not only the best rider for this kind of finish. He also has a very strong team to support him. Yesterday Orica-GreenEDGE completely dominated the finale and they have very good riders for this kind of terrain. Clarke, Albasini, Keukeleire, Yates and Impey will all be fresh at the finish and as they are all very fast too, they are perfectly suited to the lead-outs. Meanwhile, most of their rivals trains will suffer in this hard stage and their dominance is likely to be even bigger – provided that the chase work has not been too costly. With Matthews being in great condition and having a strong team, he is the clear favourite to win.

 

Philippe Gilbert has clearly been riding very well in this race as he continues to build his condition for the classics and he has shown that he is intent on being part of the action. He has two cards to play in this stage as he can both join the breakaway or focus fully on a sprint finish. It will be hard for him to choose the right tactic but as he is also in contention for the mountains jersey, it may be a good idea to save some energy for stage 6 where he could make a big attack. Hence, he is likely to focus on the sprint tomorrow. Usually, Gilbert is among the best in the uphill sprints and as he is very strong at the moment, he is probably the biggest threat for Matthews.

 

John Degenkolb was in a poor position in the sprint on stage 3 and in general his lead-outs haven’t worked really well. Hence, tomorrow’s harder stage should suit him perfectly as the fight for position will be less intense in a smaller field. Degenkolb is a very strong uphill sprinter and while he has suffered in the flat sprints this year, he has been strong on the climbs, most notably when he beat an in-form Alejandro Valverde in a harder finish in the Dubai Tour. Degenkolb usually benefits from a hard race and if he can manage to get onto Matthews’ wheel in the finale, he could win this stage.

 

Many regard Nacer Bouhanni as a pure sprinter but that is a huge mistake. The Frenchman is an excellent climber too and he loves this kind of finishes. Last year he finished in the top 10 in a brutally hard Vuelta a Espana stage where some GC riders had been dropped and where Daniel Navarro took the win. While he hasn’t been sprinting at his usual level, he has been climbing really well and he will definitely want to have a go in this finish.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is the most versatile athlete in the peloton and one of his assets is his fast sprint. In general, he is very strong in this kind of uphill finale and due to his excellent technical skills, he is perfectly suited to the technical finale. He wants to pad his lead by securing a few bonus seconds and if he has the chance, he will definitely try to mix it up in this sprint.

 

Ben Swift has had a difficult race as he has been left on his own in the finales due to Sky’s GC focus. However, he has been climbing really well all year and this stage suits him down to the ground. He will still have to fend for himself in the finale but with a smaller group, he should have an easier time. He may not be as strong as Matthews and Degenkolb in an uphill sprint but he is not far off the mark. If he can time things right, he could take the win.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas has taken a massive step up in 2015 and seems to be sprinting a lot better than he has done in recent years. Impressively, he won a full-on bunch sprint in the Tour of Qatar and in this race he has been very fast. His main challenge is a lack of team support but with a smaller and less tired field he may finally find himself in a good position.

 

Tony Gallopin showed great condition in today’s stage and we expect to take another step this year. Earlier this year he won an uphill sprint in the Etoile de Besseges and there is no doubt that he has his eyes on this stage. There are definitely faster riders than him in this field but with his good condition and a strong Tim Wellens to support him, this could be his day to shine.

 

Arthur Vichot surprised himself by climbing with the best in today’s stage which should actually have been too hard for him. This proves that he has overcome the injuries and is getting into some good condition for the classics. His goal is to win a stage and he mainly has his eyes on stage 6 which he won last year. However, he could try his hand in the sprint here and as he is fast in this kind of finish, he has a shot.

 

The same goes for Jonathan Hivert who could also try to join an early break. After a difficult season, the Frenchman is getting closer to the excellent level he showed a few years ago. His great climbing skills should make him a good breakaway candidate, especially after he lost a bit of time today. He will also have his say in case of a sprint finish.

 

Looking at breakaway candidates, Orica-GreenEDGE have lots of cards to play and as said they may be keen to be part of the action. Simon Clarke has been riding really well all year and looked strong in today’s finale too. He has the legs to escape of the Col de la Republique and he has the sprint to finish it off.

 

The same goes for Daryl Impey who is just getting stronger and stronger. He climbed really well in the Tour Down Under and last year’s Canadian WorldTour races and as the Col de la Republique is not too steep, he could make it into the group. With his fast sprint, he will be very hard to beat if he makes the right move.

 

Michael Albasini is not at his best yet but this is a stage that clearly suits him very well. He may not be strong enough to join the break but if he makes it, he will be a very dangerous contender. No one knows how to finish off a breakaway like Albasini and he is difficult to beat in an uphill sprint.

 

Jan Bakelants is an excellent breakaway artist and he is obviously in very good condition. Unfortunately, he is not too far down on GC which may make it hard for him to get clear. However, it may not be easy to control the situation on the first climb and the GC teams can allow themselves to give him a few minutes. He will probably give it a try and he is strong enough to finish it off.

 

Ion Izagirre was one of the big losers in today’s stage and he will be eager to get his revenge. He rode very strongly in the Volta ao Algarve and is clearly in good condition. He should be one of the strongest on the first climb and this could allow him to get into the move. He is not the fastest sprinter but in this finale he should be able to do well.

 

Finally, you can never rule out Alexander Kristoff. On paper this finale should be too hard for him but the Norwegian just becomes stronger and stronger. He claims to have had the legs to beat Matthews yesterday and if he is there in the finale, another win for the Norwegian is definitely a possibility.

 

CyclingQuotes’s stage winner pick: Michael Matthews

Other winner candidates: Philippe Gilbert, John Degenkolb

Outsiders: Nacer Bouhanni, Michal Kwiatkowski, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Ben Swift, Tony Gallopin, Arthur Vichot

Jokers: Simon Clarke (breakaway), Daryl Impey (breakaway) Michael Albasini (breakaway), Jan Bakelants (breakaway), Ion Izagirre (breakaway), Alexander Kristoff