Several teams combined forces to put Team Sky and Geraint Thomas under an intense pressure in today's exciting fifth stage of the race and things will only become more complicated for the British team in tomorrow's queen stage. While Geraint Thomas may still be the strongest rider in the race, the time gaps are tony and it will be hard for the Welshman to respond to all attacks in what is guaranteed to be an action-packed finale.

 

The course

The stage that has the potential to open up the biggest time gaps between the GC riders comes on the sixth day when the riders travel a massive 221.5km from Saint-Saturnin-les-Avignon to Fayence. Overnight, the riders have been transported by buses to cthe ountry's south and they are now very close to the Cote d'Azur. What remains of their journey to Nic, is a straight easterly run and the riders will cover most of the distance in the sixth stage.

 

As it has been the case for the last two days, the challenges have been saved for the final part of the stage and again the race can be divided into two parts. The first part consists of a long flat run where only the category 3 Cote de Bonnieux (4.8km, 5.1%) will challenge the riders, with the top being located at the 36.5km mark. The first intermediate sprint comes 9km further up the road.

 

The flat run will end when the riders reach Draguignan which was the scene of the queen stage of the recent Tour du Haut-Var, meaning that rider are now in more hilly terrain. The riders will head straight up the category 2 Cote des Tuilieres (2.2km, 7.8%) whose top comes 57km from the finish, and it is followed by some undulating terrain that contains the category 3 Cote du Mont Meaulx (1.7km, 4.3%) which comes 31.5km from the finish.

 

With 28.5km still to go, the riders reach Fayence where they will contest the final intermediate sprint. 1.5km further up the road, they reach the finishing circuit, meaning that they will climb the steep Mur de Fayence that leads to the finish for the first time.

 

The riders will now do a lap of the 25.5km finishing circuit. The Mur de Fayence continues as the category 2 Col de Bourigaille (8.2km, 5.9%) whose top is located 19km from the finish and from there, it is a long gradual descent to the city of Callian 8km from the finish. The roads are now flat until they gradually start to rise to the bottom of the Mur. At 1.5km and with an average gradient of 8.6% it is a real leg breaker which has some very steep sections at the bottom. It gets less steep in the second part, with the final kilometre having a gradient of 7.3%. The riders will travel along a straight road from the 5km to go mark to the 2km to go mark where they will pass through a roundabout. When they hit the Mur, they will tackle a number of hairpin bends, with the final one leading onto the 200m, 6m wide finishing straight.

 

Fayence was the scene of one of the most dramatic stages in recent Paris-Nice history when Alberto Contador was hit by a hunger knock on a similar finishing circuit in the 2009 edition of the race. Luis Leon Sanchez exploited the situation to escape from a select lead group with Frank Schleck, Antonio Colom, Sylvain Chavanel and Jens Voigt and took both a solo stage win and the leader's jersey that he would defend on the final stage. The finishing circuit that year was longer and didn't include the Mur de Fayence but also send the riders up the Cote de Bourigaille.

 

 

 

 

The weather

The riders have now reached Cote d'Azur and tradition dictates that they will have left the cold of Northern France in favour of sun and warm temperatures. This year, however, the sunny conditions have followed the riders throughout their entire journey through France and nothing will be different as they have now reached the homeland of the sun.

 

It will be another day with bright sunshine but it will be slightly cooler than in previous days, with the temperatures expected to reach a maximum of 15 degrees. There will only be a light wind from a southern direction. This means that the riders will have a crosswind for their long journey from the start to the finishing city while they will have a tailwind up the Cote de Bourigaille and a headwind on the descent. At the bottom of the descent, the riders turn into a crosswind that gradually becomes a tailwind as they head up the climb to the finish.

 

The favourites

Today's stage will have caused some concern in the Sky camp as a very strong breakaway put the British team under a big pressure that ultimately isolated Geraint Thomas and left him with no chance to respond to all attacks. That ended up being rather costly as Carlos Betancur benefited from the situation and is not just 5 seconds from the overall lead.

 

On the other hand, the stage will be a motivation for the Sky rivals as it proved that the usually very strong British team is certainly vulnerable. Tomorrow's stage is a very long one and if another strong break goes up the road, it will be a hard task for the British team to chase for the entire 221.5km stage.

 

This means that we should be in for a rather aggressive start to the stage as several teams will be keen to send riders up the road. Time gaps are still small and this means that it is almost guaranteed that the early break cannot be allowed too much leeway by the British team and they won't get much help from their rivals.  They will be pleased that the start to the stage is rather mellow and it will make it a much easier task to control the composition of the early break.

 

If a non-dangerous break goes up the road, Sky will be happy to let them take away the bonus seconds but in that case, other teams like Lampre-Merida, Ag2r, Garmin, and Belkin will make sure to chase it down as they need the bonifications for their GC campaign. Hence, the early break will have no chance and it should all come down to an exciting showdown between the GC riders on the Bourigaille.

 

The climb is not overly difficult and its hardest parts come at the bottom and the top. Again Sky will try to ride a hard tempo on the slopes to discourage any attacks, with Vasil Kiriyenka, Edvald Boasson Hagen, and David Lopez being the riders given the task to keep things under control. However, it is a delicate affair as they also need to keep something in reserve to avoid that Thomas gets isolated in the end.

 

The GC riders are guaranteed to test each other on the climb as their best chance is to create the same scenario as we had in the finale of today's stage. If Thomas is isolated on the descent, it will be very hard for him to control things and he will be vulnerable to attacks. The steep ramps near the top of the climb are the perfect launch pad and this is where the show will go on.

 

Today the team tried to save Edvald Boasson Hagen for the sprint but that won't be the case tomorrow. This means that Lopez is likely to be the final man for Thomas and he will be extremely valuable. The Spaniard is one of the best climbers in the race and if the team can save him for the final attacks, Thomas may be able to control things but he will be come under attack on both the ascent and the descent.

 

This makes the stage rather unpredictable as it is not just a case of the strongest riders battling it out on the climb to the finish. In fact the most likely scenario is that a few riders will escape on the descent and stay away all the way to the finish as it has been the case in the last two stages. This means that the stage winner could in fact be anyone of the best climbers in the race that will still be in contention at the top of the climb and have the descending skills to attack.

 

This makes the race a very open affair but if we have to select a stage winner, we have to go with the strongest rider in the race. Geraint Thomas easily responded to all attacks on today's final climb but chose to wait for assistance from behind when he was attacked on the descent and the flats. This was no sign of weakness but a mature and clever choice by the race leader.

 

If it all comes down to the final climb, we expect Thomas to prove his strength. He may be more suited to a longer climb where he can ride tempo than a short, punchy ascent but at the moment he seems to be a level above the rest. He is a fast sprinter that will be hard to beat if he is still in contention when they pass the flamme rouge.

 

The main disadvantage for Thomas when it comes to the stage win is that he may have used too much energy to respond to attacks in the finale. That will put him on the back foot compared to his rivals and may cause him to lose a bit of time on the final climb. Due to the bonus seconds, however, he cannot allow Carlos Betancur to get any gap at all and he will have to manage his reserves carefully. However, he remains our favourite to win if it is still together at the bottom of the final climb.

 

On Wednesday, we were left disappointed with Carlos Betancur's performance as his attacks on the final climb lacked the usual punch. Today he seemed to be stronger but his win was as much a result of clever and smart riding than it was due to brute strength. Nonetheless, he will be an obvious winner candidate in tomorrow's stage.

 

On paper, Betancur is the best rider for this kind of short punchy finish and he is usually very hard to beat when it comes to powering up a short, steep ascent. His main disadvantage is that he will be kept firmly under control by Thomas and for him to win, it will have to be together at the bottom of the final climb. We are still a bit concerned whether he is climbing strong enough at the moment to benefit maximally from his potential but on paper he has all the skills to win tomorrow's stage.

 

Tom-Jelte Slagter may never become a GC rider for the big stage races but for this kind of lumpy parcours, he has all the right characteristics. He usually struggles a bit when the distance gets too big and the climbs too long and so tomorrow's stage will suit him much less than the first two ones in the hills. He may struggle a bit on the Bourigaille which is a rather long climb and he may pay for the distance when it comes to the final climb in Fayence.

 

If he remains fresh, however, he will be a very dangerous rider in this kind of finish. As a past winner of the Stirling stage in the Tour Down Under, he is a very punchy guy with a fast uphill sprint and the finale suits him down to the ground. If it all comes down to a sprint on the slopes in Fayence, he will be one of the men to beat.

 

Zdenek Stybar has been climbing really well in this race so far and will be eager to move up in GC as the race presents him with a rare chance to contest the overall in a major stage race. The Bourigaille may be a bit too long to suit him perfectly but he has shown so much strength that it is hard to imagine him getting into difficulty. He is an excellent descender and a very aggressive rider that may both try to escape on the descent or wait for the final sprint. In the latter case, he is a strong contender as he is fast in these kind of punchy finishes. He proved so when he won the queen stage of last year's Eneco Tour and was the strongest rider on the Cote de la Redoute won day earlier. He is well-placed on GC and will be kept firmly under control but Stybar may take the win by virtue of his smart riding and solid punch.

 

Wilco Kelderman has proved that he is in excellent condition at the moment and he thrives on these kind of short, steep ascents. Compared to some of the classics guys, he will benefit from a hard race and he will be hard to put into difficulty on Bourigaille. He has a solid punch in case of an uphill sprint but may come up short against the likes of Betancur and Stybar. However, he has proved that he is not afraid of attacking and could escape on the descent back to Fayence.

 

French champion Arthur Vichot has been riding well the entire season and in this race he has proved that he is one of the strongest climbers. He excels on this kind of short ascents and is a very powerful sprinter. He is well-suited to uphill sprints as well as he proved in last year's GP de Quebec. He may come up short against the very best climbers in this race but also has the aggressive nature that could be rewarded at the end of an uncontrollable race.

 

Of course world champion Rui Costa also deserves to be mentioned. Until now, we have not been too impressed with his fitness level and he doesn't appear to be on top of his game. With his rainbow jersey, he is a marked man and it will be hard for him to escape in the finale. On paper, however, he is only matched by Betancur when it comes to climbing skills and he has a fast uphill sprint. And as he has proved time after time, he is almost unrivalled when it comes to wit and smart riding in a hectic finale.

 

Finally, we will select two jokers. IAM may have lost their GC hopes with Sylvain Chavanel but they still have one of the best climbers in their ranks. Over the winter, Stefan Denifl has lost a lot of weight and the results are there to prove it. He was excellent on the Mont Faron in the Tour Mediteraneen and he was one of the strongest on the steep Mont Brouilly yesterday. Despite still being in GC contention, he may not be marked too closely and he could be the rider that escapes in the finale.

 

The same could be said for Ion Izagirre. The Spaniard rode an excellent Vuelta a Andalucia and has continued his strong riding in this race. He is certainly one of the best climbers in the field but probably lacks the punchy sprint to win in a direct battle on the final climb. Like Denifl, however, he may be the rider to escape in the finale.

 

Our final joker is a long shot. Usually, no one would mention Michael Matthews in the queen stage of a stage race but until now the GreenEDGE sprinter has been one of the ten strongest climbers in the race. He may be a fast finisher but it will be hard for him to win a sprint in this kind of uphill finish but if he can keep of his level from the past two days, he could easily be in contention when they crest the summit of the Bourigaille. Due to his crash on stage 2, he is far down on GC and so may get the freedom to attack in the finale.

 

CyclingQuotes's stage winner pick: Geraint Thomas

Other winner candidates: Carlos Betancur, Tom-Jelte Slagter

Outsiders: Zdenek Stybar, Wilco Kelderman, Arthur Vichot, Rui Costa

Jokers: Ion Izagirre, Stefan Denifl, Michael Matthews