All is set for a big showdown in the final time trial on the Col d’Eze but before the riders get there, they have to survive a very tough day in the Nice hills. No less than 7 categorized climbs will make it a hard day and could be the scene of some very aggressive and uncontrollable racing on a day that gives the riders a final chance to put Sky and Etixx-QuickStep under pressure before the final race against the clock.

 

The course

When the Col d’Eze time trial has featured on the course, the penultimate stage has usually been a very hilly affair in the difficult terrain around Nice. That is again the case for this year’s stage 6 which is loaded with the tough climbs and the beautiful surroundings that characterize this part of the country. As usual, however, the stage finishes with a long descent to the Promenade d’Anglais in Nice, meaning that it is hard for the GC riders to make a difference on the day when they finally reach the sunny Cote d’Azur to complete their journey to the sun.

 

In the past, the stage was usually a very long one that would serve as perfect preparation for the classics but this year it is only 180.5km long. It starts from Vence where the riders will first do a gradually ascending 24.5km loop on the southwestern outskirts of the city before they reach the bottom of the category 1 Col de Vence (9.7km, 6.6%).

 

After the summit, the riders will tackle the longest descent of the race before heading in a northeasterly direction. They will now go up the category 2 climbs Cote de Levens (6.2km, 5.5%) and Cote de Chateauneuf (5.4km, 4.5%) in quick succession before a descent leads to another double climb. The category 2 Cote de Coaraze (5.9km, 5.6%) and the category 1 Col Saint-Roch (9.6km, 4.5%) will offer more than 15km of climbing before another long descent leads to the start of the finale as the riders now travel in a southerly direction towards the coast.

 

The main challenge in the stage is the category 1 Cote de Peille (6.6km, 6.8%) whose summit comes just 27km from the finish. A short flat section leads to the long well-known descent through La Turbie and Eze as the riders head towards Nice following the coastline. The descent ends with 2km to go but as the riders approach the Promenade d’Anglais there is the usual small 500m climb which summits at the flamme rouge. 500m of descending leads to the flat finale on the famous and wide avenue at the Cote d’Azur.

 

The finale is pretty technical as there are two hairpin bends on the descent inside the final 5km before the riders go through three sharp turns in quick succession. Then the road gradually bends to the right before the riders reach the 1000m finishing straight on the 7m wide Promenade d’Anglais.

 

Every year a stage finishes on the Promenade d’Anglais. Last year Arthur Vichot won the stage after a sprint from a small group of favourites and one year earlier Sylvain Chavanel was the fastest from a bigger group. In 2012, Thomas De Gendt won from a breakaway and in 2011 Thomas Voeckler was the strongest among the escapees. In 2010, Amael Moinard did a similar performance while Antonio Colom beat Alberto Contador and Frank Schleck in a three-rider sprint in 2009.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Paris-Nice is known as the Race to the Sun as the riders have traditionally travelled from cold and wind in Northern France to sunny conditions along the Cote d’Azur. This year things have been turned completely around as the riders have had beautiful conditions for the first stages while they can expect rain in the weekend.

 

The Col d’Eze time trial is set to take place under torrential rain but the conditions should be reasonable for tomorrow’s stage. There should be a bit of everything as sun, clouds and showers are on the horizon on a day when the temperature will reach a maximum of just 11 degrees.

 

There will be a moderate wind from an easterly direction and this means that the riders will mainly have a headwind when they have finished the descent from the Col de Vence. From the bottom of the Cote de Coaraze, they will mainly have a crosswind while there will be a headwind on the final climb. On the descent, there will first be a crosswind before the riders turn into a tailwind that they will have for the final part of the stage, including the sprint.

 

The favourites

Paris-Nice usually visits a number of new locations during its 8 days but one stage is a classic. The final road stage which finishes on the Promenade d’Anglais varies a bit from year to year but it is always a very similar affair. In this part of France, there are barely any flat roads and this turns it into a selective day of constant ups and downs. Many riders have done the race in the past and so they know most of the climbs and as many riders also live in Monaco, these roads are the training roads of many riders.

 

As a similar stage features on the course every year, it is also well-known what we can expect from the race. In the past, the stage has mainly had three different outcomes. Mostly, it has either come down to a sprint from a small group of favourites – that has been the case two years in a row – or it has been won from a breakaway. In the past – most recently in 2009 – some of the strongest favourites have managed to escape on the final climb and hold off the peloton on the final descent but history shows that this is a very difficult task.

 

The climbs are not very steep in this area and so it is hard for the GC riders to make a big difference on their own. What make the stage difficult are the constant ups and downs which make it very hard to control. This is a stage where the strongest rider could have a hard time and very often team support and tactics are just as important as good legs.

 

Tomorrow’s stage could turn into a very interesting one as Richie Porte and Team Sky seem to be in a perfect position for the final time trial. Anyone who still believes he can win the race, can’t go into the TT with an unchanged GC and so a lot of riders may be keen to go on the attack and try to put both Sky and Etixx-QuickStep under pressure. Many riders are not too far behind on GC and if some of them join the early break, it will be a very hard day for the two main teams.

 

The start of the stage is pretty tough as the first 35km are almost all uphill and this makes it very difficult to control. As a breakaway often has a good chance in this stage, we can expect a very aggressive and fast start with lots of attacks. Both Sky and Etixx-QuickStep have to be on their toes to make sure that no dangerous rider slips into the move. Last year’s Dauphiné proved what can happen for a leading team in this kind of terrain if a big group of GC threats gets clear and they have to do their utmost to avoid that.

 

The break will probably go clear on the Col de Vence and this means that it is likely to be a very strong one. It will be a surprise if there is not a single rider within shouting distance of the overall lead and this will force Sky and Etixx-QuickStep to ride hard all day. On paper, Etixx-QuickStep is the leading team but as it is Sky’s race to lose, the Belgian team may force the Brits to do the main part of the work.

 

Sky are probably confident in their abilities in the final time trial and they would be glad to have an early break take away the bonus seconds. If they can make sure that the break is not too dangerous, they can sit back and ask Etixx to do the work. Michal Kwiatkowski is one of the favourites for this kind of stage and he has a big chance to pick up some bonus seconds and so his team may be keen to try to bring it back together.

 

With a strong group likely to go clear, there is a chance that the breakaway will stay away but this year we don’t expect it to happen. The bonus seconds are simply too important and there are too many riders who believe in their chances in a final sprint. Depending on the composition of the breakaway, Etixx-QuickStep, FDJ, Lotto Soudal and Movistar could all take part in the chase and so we expect it to come down to a battle between the GC riders in the end.

 

The second part of the race is very hilly and this means that we could see some attacks on the final three climbs. While the biggest names will save their energy for the final ascent, it would be no surprise to see some aggression a bit earlier in what should be a constant elimination race.

 

Kwiatkowski has made it clear that he will probably try to attack Porte before the final time trial and he will probably try to do that on the final climb. With a headwind, however, it will be hard to make much of a difference and as the main riders are likely to stay together over the top, we expect it to come down to a sprint from a small group. However, Kwiatkowski has to stay aware of Geraint Thomas as Sky are likely to try to use their strength in numbers by sending the Welshman on the attack and it will be important for him to have Tony Martin and Maxime Bouet at his side for as long as possible. Kwiatkowski may also try to attack on the descent – especially if the roads are wet – but it will be hard to drop the main riders who are all solid descenders.

 

If it comes down to a group sprint, the main question is which riders will have made the selection. The headwind on the final climb should give a chance for more riders and with a longer distance from the top to the finish, there will also be more time to get back.

 

Michal Kwiatkowski is clearly in outstanding condition and he is a very fast sprinter. The Pole nearly beat Peter Sagan on stages of the 2013 Tour de France and this proves how much speed he has in a flat sprint. Among the GC riders, he is definitely among the fastest and he is also very good at positioning himself for the sprint.

 

Kwiatkowski’s chances will depend on how the faster riders survive the climbs but as we expect a solid GC battle on the final climb, the group could be a pretty small one. In that case, there is a big chance that the Pole will be the fastest rider and this makes him our favourite to win the stage.

 

Michael Matthews has done nothing to hide that this stage is a big goal for him. The Australian lives in Monaco and so this stage finishes in his backyard. On paper, one may think that the climbs should be too hard for him but don’t rule on the strong Australian. None of them are very steep and in last year’s Giro he proved how strong he is on that kind of ascents.

 

Furthermore, he is reportedly lighter than he was last year and he did very well to hang onto the best for a long time in the queen stage. As there will also be a headwind on the final climb and as he is supported by a very strong team that can allow him to rejoin the peloton if he loses a bit of ground, Matthews could take a second stage win tomorrow.

 

For Philippe Gilbert, this is a great chance to prepare for the classics and he has been riding very aggressively in this race. At first he had his eyes on the mountains jersey but he seems to have admitted that De Gendt’s lead is now insurmountable. Hence, he may try to focus on a stage win tomorrow.

 

BMC’s main goal is to keep Tejay van Garderen in a good position for the time trial but Gilbert could get the chance to play his own card. He has two options: he can either join a breakaway or try to stay with the best. As he seems to be in good condition, this terrain should be manageable for the former Liege-Bastogne-Liege rider and if he is there at the end, he is one of the fastest in a sprint. Two years ago he was beaten by Sylvain Chavanel in this stage and he would love to make amends for that defeat.

 

Tony Gallopin is clearly in excellent condition and this stage is a big goal for him. In the queen stage, he did one of his best climbing performances ever and there is no chance that he won’t be there in the end. Gallopin is very fast in a sprint as he recently proved when he won a stage of the Etoile de Besseges. For some reason though, it seems that he always comes up short, mainly because of poor positioning. In a small group of favourites, however, he should be one of the fastest.

 

Jose Joaquin Rojas has clearly taken a step up in 2014. For many years, the Spaniard has been a perennial top 10 finisher but this year he seems to have become a lot faster. In the Tour of Qatar, he even won a big bunch sprints and with four top 10 results he has been sprinting really well in this race too. Furthermore, he still climbs excellently and last year he finished in the front group this stage after briefly having lost contact. This makes him an obvious contender.

 

Sylvain Chavanel won this stage two years ago and he will be eager to do it again. The IAM captain has been very good all year and he rode solidly in the queen stage which was clearly too hard for him. He may mostly be known for his aggressive mindset but he is actually fast in a sprint too. It will be hard to drop him in this terrain and if he is there at the end, he will be one of the favourites.

 

Last year’s winner of this stage Arthur Vichot has made a repeat his big goal for this race. Unfortunately, he crashed in today’s stage and this may hamper him tomorrow. With a great showing in the queen stage, however, he proved that he is getting back into form after he was set back by illness at the Ruta del Sol. He may not be the fastest riders among the favourites but he has a decent kick and last year he proved that he can finish it off.

 

Tom Dumoulin had made this race his big goal for the first part of the year but he fell ill just before the race. However, he is getting better and better and he is aiming at a solid showing in the final time trial. However, he could already shine in this stage as he will be hard to drop on these climbs and with his fast sprint, he is an obvious contender.

 

Geraint Thomas is clearly in the form of his life and he will be keen to try to add a few bonus seconds in this stage. The Sky rider has never won a sprint before but he is actually pretty fast in a sprint. As he is a bit leaner than usual, he may have lost a bit of power but he should be a contender if it comes down to a small group sprint.

 

Finally, we will select a few jokers. If a small group arrives at the bottom of the descent, no team is likely to have lots of domestiques. This could make it hard to control and that will open the door for late attacks. Riders like Wilco Kelderman, Tim Wellens and Rui Costa are all very strong on the flats and they have the aggressive mindset to try an attack in the finale. If they get a gap, it is not obvious who is going to bring them back.

 

Ben Swift is likely to have to work hard for his teammates but the Sky sprinter may also be given the chance to play his own card. Last year he won an even harder stage in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco and he has the skills to handle this kind of climbs. If he is not asked to work too much, he could make the selection and in a small group he won’t miss out due to the lack of team support which has hampered him until now.

 

If a breakaway stays away, we would look to in-form riders like Simon Clarke, Thomas De Gendt, Rafal Majka, Rein Taaramae, Ion Izagirre, Jan Bakelants who have all lost a bit of time and know how to handle this terrain.

 

CyclingQuotes’s stage winner pick: Michal Kwiatkowski

Other winner candidates: Michael Matthews, Philippe Gilbert

Outsiders: Tony Gallopin, Jose Joaquin Rojas, Sylvain Chavanel, Arthur Vichot, Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas

Jokers: Ben Swift, Wilco Kelderman, Rui Costa, Tim Wellens, Simon Clarke, Thomas De Gendt, Rein Taaramae, Ion Izagirre, Rafal Majka, Jan Bakelants (the latter 6 from long-distance breakaways)