Carlos Betancur stamped his authority on the race with his impressive stage win in today's queen stage but he and his Ag2r team face a very difficult weekend that is designed to put the race leader under pressure. Tomorrow's stage offers the first opportunity to attack Betancur and while the terrain may not be difficult enough to produce major time gaps, it is hard enough to try to isolate the Colombian.

 

The course

The riders have now reached Nice and the final two days consist of visits into the hilly hinterlands of the big city at the Cote d'Azur. The first of those small journeys is the 195.5km penultimate stage that take the riders from Mougins near the coast into the hills and back to the sea and a finish in Biot at the Sophia Antipolis. The race is a really hilly affair that contains a serious amount of climbing and is a typical Saturday stage in the final weekend of Paris-Nice as it is long, undulating with a lot of climbs but with no big summit finish.

 

The start is rather easy as the riders head along slightly undulating and gradually rising roads to the first intermediate sprint at the 34km mark in Tourettes-sur-Loup where the late Xavier Tondo won a stage in 2010. From there, things  get serious as the riders start the first category 1 climb of the race, the Col de Vence (9.7km, 6.6%).

 

The ascent kicks off a very hilly zone where it is almost constantly up or down. The descent leads to the bottom of the category 3 Cote de Cipieres (3.1km, 5%) which is a small appetizer for the next category 1 climb, the Col de l'Ecre (11.1km, 4.9%) which takes the riders to the highest point of the entire race at 1119m about sea level.

 

With the top coming at the 89km mark, the riders have now reached a plateau where they will stay on flat roads for several kilometres until they start the long, gradual descent back towards the coast. It is interspersed with a few small leg breakers, the category 3 Cote de Cipieres (3.1km, 5%) and the category 2 Cote de Gourdon (4.8km, 3.6), with the latter coming 64.5km from the finish and preceding the major part of the descent.

 

47km from the finish, the riders will enter the finishing circuit that is an undulating 19km affair. They will cross the line for the first time with 37.5km to go and then they will do two full laps of the circuit. The first part is predominantly uphill while the second part is mainly downhill and leads to the final 2km climb to the finish. However, the roads are always up or down, with several short, steep climbs making it difficult to find a rhythm.

 

The climb to the finish is not very difficult and has a rather constant gradient of around 5%. However, the final is rather technical as the final 5km are held on a very winding roads that constantly twists and turns its way to the finish. Inside the final kilometre, there are two sweeping turns on the bending roads and the riders will pass straight through a roundabout just 100m from the line which is located on a 6m wide road.

 

The stage is very similar to the penultimate stage of the 2011 edition of the race which also contained some major climbing in the first part and finished with two laps on the exact same finishing circuit. The race took place under torrential rain, with several riders abandoning due to the cold conditions. There was some selection on the climbs but it was a rather big group that entered the finishing circuit. Several riders tried their hand on the circuit and Remy Di Gregorio was strong enough to take a beautiful solo win when he made a late attack. The peloton splintered on the finishing circuit but the selection was made more by the slick roads and the many crashes than by the toughness of the circuit and the gaps between the favourites on the final climb to the finish was a question of mere seconds.

 

 

 

 

The weather

It is almost a question of copy-paste to describe the weather in this year's unusual edition of Paris-Nice but tomorrow there is a slight variation. The riders have now reached the Cote d'Azur and one would have expected that the weather should have only become better. However, tomorrow should be the coldest day so far, with the temperatures only reaching 15 degrees, and the sky should be a bit more cloudy than it has been in recent days. There should be plenty of sunshine though and it will still be a pleasant day for bike racing.

 

There will only be a light wind from a southerly direction, meaning that the riders will generally have a tailwind in the first part of the stage and a headwind when they head back to the coast. On the final circuit there will mostly be a crosswind but the riders will mostly have a headwind for the final four kilometres, turning to a cross-headwind when they pass the flamme rouge.

 

The favourites

Carlos Betancur proved that he is tailor-made for the kind of punchy finishes that was on offer in today's stage. Despite being seemingly disinterested in the race just a few kilometres from the finish, he again put his fantastic acceleration on show on the final climb to take a convincing win.

 

The stage produced bigger time gaps and many riders have fallen out of GC contention. However, 29 riders are still within two minutes of the overall lead and as there are no summit finishes left, the only chance for most of them to move up on GC and get something out of this Paris-Nice is by going on the attack.

 

Hence, the Ag2r team can expect to come under fierce pressure in tomorrow's stage. The first part is very tough and more than half the field will be keen to get into the early break. As it is uphill almost from the very beginning, the break that will finally go clear will be made up of some of the strongest riders in the race and this means that it is almost guaranteed that it will contain a few guys that a threats for the overall lead.

 

It will take a long time for the break to be formed and there is a big chance that things will still be together by the time they reach the first intermediate sprint at the 34km mark. It comes at the end of a long gradual uphill section but it is hard to see from the roadbook whether the actual sprint is flat or slightly uphill. In a flat sprint, Geraint Thomas is clearly faster than Betancur while the tables may be turned if it is uphill. However, Sky won't have given up yet and they want to find those 8 seconds somewhere. As it is hard to imagine that Thomas will be able to drop Betancur, they need to find them via bonus seconds. Hence, one could easily imagine that Sky will try to keep things together for the first intermediate sprint.

 

The break is likely to take off on the category 1 Col de Vence, meaning that it will be a very strong one, and Ag2r can expect a very hard day in the saddle. It will be mostly left to them to chase for the entire stage in some very hard terrain. Due to the loss of Maxime Bouet, they are one rider down but the team is a very strong one with several good climbers. Romain Bardet, Mikael Cherel, and Alexis Vuillermoz are all excellent in this kind of terrain and Samuel Dumoulin will also have his say as soon as the climbs don't get too long.

 

Saturday in Paris-Nice is usually one for a breakaway and it will be a close fight between the two groups. The uphill finish is tailor-made for Betancur though and this means that some teams may be reluctant to bring things back together for a final sprint. Thomas will have his best chance to take the bonus seconds in tomorrow's flat finish on Promenade d'Anglais and so Sky may be keen to let the break stay away. However, Omega Pharma-Quick Step will have their eyes on the podium and they could try to set up a final sprint for Zdenek Stybar. Movistar may also fancy the chances for Jose Joaquin Rojas in this kind of finish, meaning that there are some teams that could lend Ag2r a hand on the final circuit.

 

Ag2r can expect to get under attack also on the finishing circuit and there are several teams that will try to isolate Betancur. With potential assistance from other teams, however, we think that the team is strong enough to keep things under control and even though Ag2r will be happy to see an escape take away the bonus seconds, the odds are that there is enough interest to set up a sprint finish.

 

The final two kilometres are uphill but the finale is much easier than today's steep slopes. This means that the number of potential winners is much bigger as the classics specialists should mix it up with the climbers and even a tough sprinter like Rojas.

 

Zdenek Stybar proved that he is climbing excellently at the moment when he finished 3rd in a stage that was maybe a bit too tough to suit him perfectly. Tomorrow's easier gradient are perfect for the Czech who is very fast in an uphill sprint of this kind. He has proved that several times, most impressively in the two hard final stages of last year's Eneco Tour.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step still haven't got a stage win in this race and they will be eager to set Stybar up for tomorrow's finish. The climbing may be a bit too tough for their many classics riders but if a few of them get to the finishing circuit with the peloton, they could try to bring things back together. It's no given thing that Stybar will win this kind of uphill sprint but in our eyes, he will be the man to beat.

 

It would be a fantastic scenario for Betancur if he could make it three in a row in tomorrow's stage and actually he has a solid chance. In a flat sprint he would have no chance against riders like Stybar and Thomas but in this finish, he is one of the favourites. Clearly, he would have preferred the road  to be steeper but don't be surprised if he comes away with the goods. In the Tour du Haut-Var he beat John Degenkolb in an uphill sprint that was much easier than this one and this proves that he has all the skills to shine in this kind of finish.

 

Michael Matthews has been climbing excellently well in this race and when the riders approached the summit of the Col de Bourigaille in today's stage, he was still well-placed near the front. The final climb got a bit too steep for him to stay with the best but tomorrow's finish suits him well.

 

Matthews is much more than a pure sprinter and his main strength may actually be his ability handle uphill sprints. He has dominated the Stirling stage in the Tour Down Under and tomorrow's finish is not much harder than that one. Orica-GreenEDGE may not be strong enough to keep things together but if it comes down to a sprint, look out for Matthews.

 

Movistar had expected Ion Izagirre to be their man for the GC but actually their sprinter Jose Joaquin Rojas has taken over the reins. Like Matthews, he excels in uphill sprints and even though he has a habit of never winning, tomorrow's finish should suit him really well. His results prove that he has not been set too much back by his Tour Down Under crash and he is obviously in excellent condition. He will be eager to shine in this uphill sprint as bonus seconds could move him onto the final podium.

 

Today Geraint Thomas lost the lead but the Brit is certainly not out of the race. Today's final climb was a bit too steep to suit him perfectly and he still managed to take fourth. Tomorrow's finish will suit him much better and he is a rather fast sprinter. He may not be too confident that he can beat Betancur in this kind of finish but it is certainly no given thing that he won't. Until now, he has given the impression that he is the strongest rider in the race and it wouldn't be a surprise if he takes the win tomorrow.

 

Tom-Jelte Slagter again proved that he is one of the best in this race when he attacked on the final climb and it was just a pure case of bad luck for him to drop his chain in the final hairpin bend. Like Matthews, he is a past winner of the Stirling stage and he is a very fast finishers in this kind of uphill finishes. He is clearly in excellent condition at the moment and could take his second win in the race.

 

As said, there is a good chance that the break will stay away to the finish and so our joker picks will be potential escapees. One of them is an obvious choice. Sylvain Chavanel lost all hopes of an overall victory due to a mechanical on stage 4 but in the last two stages, he has proved that his shape is great. Today he stayed away on his own for most of the early part of the race and still managed to bridge across to the early escape in the final before being the final rider to get caught. He is some way down on GC and will get a bit more leeway. He will be eager to defend his mountains jersey and this means that he needs to go on the attack. The finishing circuit suits him perfectly and if he gets clear, he will be hard to catch in that kind of terrain.

 

Ion Izagirre was riding excellently in stage 4 but apparently had a bad day today. This means that he is now 2 minutes behind Betancur on GC and so Ag2r don't need to chase him down. He proved in Andalusia that his condition is excellent and he is one of the best climbers in the race. He will be hard to hold back on the Col de Vence and if he gets into the early break, he will be a danger man.

 

CyclingQuotes' stage winner pick: Zdenek Stybar

Other winner candidates: Carlos Betancur, Michael Matthews

Outsiders: Jose Joaquin Rojas, Geraint Thomas, Tom-Jelte Slagter

Jokers: Sylvain Chavanel, Ion Izagirre