After a one-year absence, the most iconic stage is back in Paris-Nice which again ends with the legendary time trial up the Col d’Eze. Even though the ascent in the Nice hinterland is not among the hardest climb in France, history proves that it is usually the single most decisive stage in the French race and nothing suggests that it will be anything different in the 2015 edition of the Race to the Sun.

The course

One stage characterizes Paris-Nice more than anyone else. The time trial up the Col d’Eze on the outskirts of the finishing city has been the traditional finale to a week of excellent racing and has usually had a huge impact on the race. For several years in the early part of this century, however, ASO preferred to end the race on the Promenade d’Anglais and it wasn’t until 2012, that the stage was finally back on the course. In 2013, it again played its usual key role and after a one-year absence, it will again decide the race in 2015.

At just 9.5km, it is a very short stage that takes off from the northern outskirts of Nice. From there, the riders head straight onto the climb which is steepest at the bottom. The first two kilometres have a gradient of 7.7% and 8.5% respectively but then it comes significantly easier. After a few kilometres with a gradient of 3-6%, the next three kilometres are again a bit harder as they average 7%, 5.9% and 5.6% respectively. The final 1.5km are almost completely flat as they only have a gradient of 1.2%.

In 2012, Bradley Wiggins defended his overall lead when he narrowly beat key rival Lieuwe Westra by just a single second. One year later, the winning margin was a lot bigger when a dominant Richie Porte confirmed his superiority by distancing Andrew Talansky and Nairo Quintana by more than 20 seconds. Before the long absence, Dario Frigo and Andreas Klöden won the stage in 2001 and 2000 respectively.

The weather

Paris-Nice is known as the Race to the Sun as the riders have traditionally travelled from cold and wind in Northern France to sunny conditions along the Cote d’Azur. This year things have been turned completely around as the riders have had beautiful conditions for the first stages while they had bad weather in today’s stage.

The weather will be even worse for the Col d’Eze time trial as torrential rain is forecasted for the entire day. The temperature in the centre of Nice will reach an unusually low maximum of just 9 degrees. Furthermore, there will be a pretty strong wind from a northeasterly direction which means that the riders will first have a cross-headwind before they turn into a headwind for the final 4km. Luckily both the wind and the amount of rain should be pretty constant for the duration of the time trial, meaning that all riders are likely to have the same conditions.

The favourites

Today's stage turned the race upside down after an aggressive and entertaining race but all is still to play for in Paris-Nice. Even though the two climbing stages have opened  significant time gaps, there is little down that the most decisive stage of the race is the mountain time trial up the Col d’Eze. In general, mountain time trials are the kind of stages that open the biggest time gaps and even though the climb in the Nice hinterland is short and not very hard, history shows that this is usually where the race is won.

Mountain time trials are often dominated by pure climbers who often suffer in the usual time trials but come into their own on the steep slopes. The most recent example was the Monte Grappa time trial in the Giro d’Italia in which Nairo Quintana and Fabio Aru were a step above the rest. However, Col d’Eze is not a real mountain and apart from steep first two kilometres, the gradients are manageable for the bigger guys too. This means that this stage is usually dominated by a strange mix of versatile time triallists who can climb, and pure climbers who can still do well in this kind of stage. With a strong headwind blowing on the climb, aerodynamics will play a bigger role than usual and this may tip the balance a little more away from the pure climbers.

Since the time trial was reintroduced in 2012, Bradley Wiggins and Richie Porte have come out on top and those two riders are prime example of the kind of versatile riders that usually shine in this stage. Both are still present in this race and while the former is now probably too heavy to feature prominently in this stage, the latter is the big favourite to win the stage.

In 2013, Porte was in a class of his own in this stage and it will be very hard to beat the Australian tomorrow. In the queen stage, Porte proved that he is clearly the best climber in this race and he is usually very strong on this kind of gradients which are not too steep. Furthermore, he is a time trial specialist who knows how to pace himself and this comes in handy in this kind of challenge.

Porte again looked strong in toay's stage even though he was not at the same dominant level that he was in the queen stage. However, only Gallopin seemed to have the edge over him on the climbs and it would be a surprise if the Frenchman can ride faster up the Col d'Eze than Porte who is generally a much better climber.

In recent years, Porte has had a hard time finding back to his usual TT level but this year he seems to be getting close. While he still suffers a bit on the flat courses, he has been very good on the hillier routes. He did an impressive ride at the Australian TT Nationals to beat an in-form Rohan Dennis on a very tough course and with this stage being all uphill, it suits him even better. Nothing suggests that Porte is not at the same level as he was in 2013 and he is our favourite to take another hugely dominant win.

Michal Kwiatkowski is the rider most likely to upset Team Sky. The Pole has often proved that he is one of the best time triallists in the world and this year he has even time trialled better than usual, almost beating Adriano Malori in the San Luis time trial. This race has clearly proved that he is in outstanding condition as he was among the strongest in the queen stage, delivering his best ever performance on such a long climb. Today he made a big gamle by attacking from afar and he paid the price for his aggression. However, he did an awful lot of work and still managed to finish in a decent position, proving that he is still very strong.

Surprisingly, Kwiatkowski has never done a mountain time trial in his time as a professional and so it is hard to know what to expect. However, he loves this kind of relatively short effort and the Col d’Eze is not too hard a climb for the world champion. As he is clearly climbing better than ever before and is an outstanding time triallist, he will be Porte’s biggest rival.

Tony Gallopin did a big coup today and confirmed the great performance he delivered in the queen stage. He mainly made the difference on the descent and the flats but he also rode very strongly on the climb to distance Kwiatkowski. With the leader's jersey on his shoulders, he will be extremely motivated for tomorrow's stage and he is clearly in great condition.

Gallopin may mostly be known as a classics riders but he is actually a solid time triallist too, especially on shorter distances. Earlier this year he was second behind Jungels in the Etoile de Besseges TT which finished with a short, steep climb. This climb suits him pretty well and the distance is also perfect for the strong Frenchman. It will be hard for him to beat Porte but he could end up defending his overall lead.

Tejay van Garderen is among the best time triallists in this race and he is usually very strong in this kind of uphill time trial on a climb that is regular and not too steep. He has dominated the Vail time trial in the USA Pro Challenge the past two years and in 2014 he has even improved his climbing a lot. In the queen stage, he underlined his great condition and he is clearly one of the strongest riders in this race. He took a beating today though and may lack the motivation to go full gas. It will be a test of character for van Garderen but being a time trial specialist too, he should be one of the best in this stage.

Rui Costa is no time trial specialist but he usually does well in individual tests on hilly courses. In 2013, he laid the foundations for his overall Tour de Suisse win by taking a dominant win in the much harder mountain time trial on the Flumserberg. He is no pure climber either but this climb suits him really well. He is not yet at his best but in the two hilly stages he proved that he is not too far off the mark.

Like Costa, Simon Spilak is no time trial specialist but he has always done well on hilly courses. Furthermore, he is always very strong in the spring as the colder weather suits the Slovenian perfectly. He has gradually built his condition for this race and in the two climbing stages he proved that he is not too far off the mark. He is great at pacing himself on a climb and it is no coincidence that he was 4th in this stage three years ago and 6th in 2013.

In previous years, Jakob Fuglsang’s strongest asset was his great time trial but as he has improved his climbing, he has lost the edge in the TTs. However, this kind of mountain time trial could suit him really well and in the queen stage he confirmed that he is always very strong at this time of the year. He was not far off the level of the best on the Croix de Chaubouret and as he knows how to pace himself, he should definitely be able to do well.

Finally, we will select a few jokers. Tim Wellens is mostly known for his attacking spirit and he is contantly getting better. Furthermore, he has improved his time trialling a lot and last year he finished in the top 10 in the Giro mountain time trial. In this race, he is clearly at a very high level as he was one of the only riders from the early break to stay with the best in the finale. He will be very motivated and this short test should suit him well.

As said, pure climbers usually do pretty well in mountain time trials and last year Fabio Aru proved that he is one of the best in the business. He nearly beat Quintana on the Monte Grappa in the Giro and even though he is not in the same kind of condition and this climb is not as hard as the Italian mountain, he should be able to do well. He suffered in the cold in today's stage but if he can stay motivated for tomorrow, he coudl create a surprise. In 2012, Quintana finished third in this stage and Aru could be the next pure climber to shine.

Ion Izagirre has been hampered by bad luck in this race but his condition is actually pretty good. He finished third in the Volta ao Algarve queen stage and this stage is tailor-made for him. Last year the Basque finished in the top 10 in almost all the hilly time trials he did and this should make him a contender for this stage. His brother Gorka has never been known as a time trial specialist but he has improved a lot in 2014 and 2015 and as he is clearly in great condition, he should do well too.

Former world champion Tony Martin has made this race a big goal but he came up a bit short in the queen stage. In the last few days, he has played the domestique role but tomorrow he will again target a personal result. In a real mountain time trial, he would come up short against the pure climbers but not many riders can ride faster up a 5% climb than the big German. He has been focused a lot on his climbing and this should pay off in tomorrow’s stage.

CyclingQuotes’s stage winner pick: Richie Porte

Other winner candidates: Geraint Thomas, Michal Kwiatkowski

Outsiders: Tony Gallopin, Tejay van Garderen, Rui Costa, Simon Spilak, Jakob Fuglsang

Jokers: Tim Wellens, Fabio Aru, Ion Izagirre, Gorka Izagirre, Tony Martin, Rafael Valls