One classic stands above the rest when it comes to its dramas, myths and legends: the Paris-Roubaix. On Sunday, it is once again time to enter the Hell of the North in a battle against cobbles, weather, fatigue and dust on the long run from Compiegne to Roubaix.

 

The cobbled season is almost an entirely Flemish affair but for the big finale the circus moves to France. The Paris-Roubaix brings the curtain down on a very unique part of the cycling calendar and it does so in the most grandiose way. The Flemish classics may be exciting and great bike races but an extra layer of myth and symbolism is added to equation when the riders end their campaign on the French cobbles.

 

It is no coincidence that the Paris-Roubaix has been dubbed the queen of the classics. First held in 1896, the race has delivered some of the most iconic images of the merciless sport of cycling, and the number of broken dreams in the Roubaix velodrome have turned the famous cobblestone trophy into the most coveted and iconic classics symbol.

 

The race was put on by  two Roubaix textile manufacturers who had been behind the building of a velodrome in their city. They came up with the idea of hosting a bike race that ran from the nearby capital of Paris to a finish in their new building. They had no intention of making the race particularly brutal by including cobbled roads. At that time, however, most of the roads in the area were in a very poor condition and so it was just a natural feature of the race.

 

World War I was particularly brutal in this area and left many roads in a very poor state. This made the race an even tougher affair and the legend started to be created. After World War II, the organizers faced the same challenges as the men behind the Flemish races did. Local authorities started to improve the road conditions and the race that had now become one of the greatest events on the calendar, risked being turned into a flat race for the sprinters. Like the Flanders organizers, the Paris-Roubaix organization had to abandon their original route and make an extensive search to find roads that didn't feature on their maps. Over time, this has developed the unique route that is now the scene of a legendary bike race and includes humble rural roads that have now been turned into real landmarks of cycling.

 

Apart from its history, what makes the Paris-Roubaix so significant in the world of cycling is its unique nature. While its fellow monuments (Milan-Sanremo, Tour of Flanders, Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Tour of Lombardy) can all be prepared by participation in similar events, the Paris-Roubaix stands out as the only event of its kind on the cycling calendar. The Milan-Sanremo may be seen as a longer version of a number of Italian one-day events, the Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the Tour of Lombardy are just the pinnacle of a number of races in the same regions, and the Tour of Flanders is preceded by a number of semi-classics taking in the same roads in the Flemish Ardennes. On the contrary, the paves in Northern France are used only once a year.

 

As a consequence, it is no surprise to see a number of riders who only stand out from the rest on this single day of racing. While the race has always been dominated by the usual crop of classics specialists, they suddenly have to battle a small handful of powerful domestiques who for once leave behind their usual selfless nature to battle the cycling giants. In the Roubaix velodrome, sheer power, brutal strength and phenomenal endurance are rewarded, and that is exactly the main attributes of some of the most highly-esteemed workers in the peloton. Johan Vansummeren's string of results on the French cobbles - capped off with his 2011 victory - is the most recent example of a tireless domestique to shine in the Hell of the North.

 

In a unique event, it is no surprise to see experience be the key to success. In no other race, pre-race knowledge of the challenges ahead is as important as it is in the queen of the classics, and the winners' list is littered with powerful veterans who have found their niche on the French cobbles. However, even the most experienced and strongest competitor gets nowhere without luck, and an untimely puncture or a dramatic crash has been the source of many broken dreams in Northern France.

 

What makes the Paris-Roubaix stand out is the fact that the selection is purely made by the rough surface and the riders' ability to handle the constant stress of tackling some of the most uncomfortable roads in Europe. In all other races, the main challenges are posed by the climbs or the weather, but the Hell of the North is different. The almost completely flat course would usually make any sprinter lick his lips in anticipation of a final bunch kick, but the Paris-Roubaix has the exact opposite nature. It is one of the most selective races on the calendar, and any kind of explosiveness or punch is unusable on the French paves. What counts is pure strength and an ability to just go on and on.

 

The race has been won by most of cycling's greats but due to its unique nature, even some of the best have struggled on the French pavés. It takes a very special bike rider to excel on the French cobbles. The abilities that allow certain riders to shine in most races count for very little on the road to Roubaix. Instead, it is hard men Roger De Vlaeminck and Tom Boonen who hold the record for most victories, having each won four editions of the race. This year Boonen will go all out to become the outright record holder in the most coveted classic while Fabian Cancellara will look to add that crucial fourth win to his palmarés.

 

With the Tour of Flanders, Paris-Roubaix forms the pinnacle of the cobbled races and each rider has his own opinion about which one to prefer. If they had the choice, however, most seem to prefer to add the French event to their palmares. While the Flemish races are all about passion, the legends and myths of Roubaix put it atop the list of classics.

 

This year the race takes a special importance as the fifth stage of the Tour de France will pass many of the same pavés. While some riders have played with the thought of doing some of the cobbled races to prepare for July's race - and Alejandro Valverde even did two of the Flemish races - no one has ever considered doing Paris-Roubaix which actually takes place on the same roads. The French event is simply regarded as being too dangerous for the GC riders to do but many of Sunday's contenders will be back in July as key support riders for their captains and many may earn selection simply because of that single stage.

 

Last year Fabian Cancellara took his third victory in Roubaix in what was undoubtedly one of his hardest ever classics wins. Being isolated in the finale, the Swiss was constantly on the back foot and always had to come from behind until he finally found himself in a group with Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar and Stijn Vandenbergh. Disaster struck for Omega Pharma-Quick Step as crashes and near-crashes took out both Stybar and Vandenbergh but Cancellara was unable to get rid of Vanmarcke. It all came down to a very close sprint in the Roubaix Velodrome where Cancellara edged out his Belgian rival by centimetres before falling to the ground, totally exhausted. Niki Terpstra beat Greg Van Avermaet in a close sprint for third. After their performances in the Tour of Flanders, Cancellara and Vanmarcke are both billed as main favourites for Sunday's race while Terpstra is again part of a very strong Omega Pharma-Quick Step team.

 

The course

The course always varies from year to year as new sectors are included and old ones disappear. Some may be taken out for the surface to be improved, only to get back on map one year later. A special organization is even created to take care of the famed pavés and to discover new ones that may be included in future editions.

 

Despite the variations, the course always follows a traditional format and the key sectors are always the same. The race kicks off with a long flat section with no pavés before things kick off in earnest after around 100km of racing. From here, the sectors come in quick succession with only little room for recovery. The most famous pavés, Carrefour de l'Arbre, Mons-en-Pevele and Trouee d'Arenberg, always play a key role in the race and the race keeps its ties to its history by still finishing on the Roubaix velodrome that was a key part of the creation of the event. This year's race is 257km long and includes 28 pavé sectors, with a total of 51.1km of cobbled roads. Compared to last year, the race is slightly longer and has an extra pavé but the total length of the sectors have been reduced slightly.

 

Like most other historic races whose names are made up of the names of their start and finishing cities, the race no longer starts at its original point of departure. Nowadays, the race kicks off from Compiegne north of the French capital and from there the riders head along big, flat roads in a northeasterly direction. This part of the race is an easy affair and mainly serves to accumulate fatigue in the riders' legs and allow the early break to take off.

 

However, team tactics play a crucial role as it can be very important to have a teammate up the road and history proves that early escapees can get rather far in this race. Hence, it is often a brutal war in the first hour of the race that is raced at a massive speed until the right break final takes off. When that happens, the peloton gets its own chance in the entire race to get a small breather. As they approach the 97.5km mark and the first pavé sector, the battle for position starts to increase and the pace gradually ramps up and from now on it is a constant war to stay near the front.

 

The first sector is the Troisvilles whose difficulty has earned it a three-star ranking (out of five).  Among the first 9 sectors, only one has a four-star ranking, the Quievy pavé which comes at the 106.5km mark. History proves that these early pavés don't play no major role as the major teams only ride tempo on the front of the peloton but already at this early point, the gradual elimination starts. From now on, riders will constantly be sent out the back door until only the strongest remain.

 

While this part of the race is not a time to launch an attack, it may still play a big role. The racing is usually rather eventful due to the many crashes and punctures and by the time the riders reach the first crucial point, at least one contender is likely to have been hit by a major setback.

 

The first small battle starts when the riders approach the Haveluy (4 stars) sector 104km from the finish. It's a rather tough affair and it's usually a small sprint to get to the pavé in the best possible position. Again it's still too early for the contenders to play their cards but in the past a rather small group has emerged at the end of the sector.

 

Things usually come back together after the Haveluy and now the real war starts. At its end, the riders are only 6km from the famous Trouee d'Arenberg (5 stars), the most legendary pavé of the race. This is where the first crucial selection is made and it's a true bunch sprint to get to the start in a reasonable position. A crash or a puncture at this time spells the end for your race as there will be no coming back at this point of the race.

 

The race favourites usually show their cards as they go through the forest and by the time, they exit the sector, a select group has usually emerged. Afterwards, there is always some kind of regrouping but now the first big selection has been made.

 

At this point, the favourites will have lost most of their domestiques and this opens the door for the tactical battle that plays a key role in the cobbled races.  Over the next 7 pavés, there's a great chance to anticipate the main favourites. Many riders know that they can't follow Fabian Cancellara when he rides full gas on the toughest pavés but if you are ahead by the time, he tries to force the selection, you may earn yourself a ticket to the finale. This phase is usually very aggressive and team support plays a key role for the favourites. At the same time, the elimination is constant.

 

It is hard to say when the big favourites will play their next card as it depends on a lot of different factors - number of domestiques, wind, breakaways - but the next key point is usually the Mons-en-Pevele (5 stars) 49km from the finish. This is one of only three pavés with a top ranking and is the perfect place to create the next big selection. At the end of selection, we are usually down to a very select group of favourites and from now on it's a real race for the hard men.

 

The next sectors are all a lot easier but this phase is usually no less aggressive. Instead of waiting for the Carrefour de l'Arbre, some of the outsiders may take the chance to go up the road, especially if the favourites have no domestiques left. Last year Cancellara found himself isolated at this point of the race and he constantly had to bridge across to new groups that had formed at the pointy end of the race.

 

Inside the final 30km, things again get more difficult when the riders go over the Cysoing-Bourghelles (4 stars) and Bourghelles-Wannehain (3 stars) double sector just 27km from the finish and the Champhin-en-Pevele (4 stars) just 20km from the line. The decider, however, is usually the Carrefour de l'Arbre (5 stars) which comes 17km from the finish whose 2100m of brutal pavé has been the scene of some of the most legendary moments of the Paris-Roubaix history. This is the place to launch the final attacks and just in recent years, several legendary crashes have happened here. Last year it was the undoing of Vandenbergh and Stybar while Cancellara desperately tried to get rid of Vanmarcke.

 

At the end of the Carrefour de l'Arbre, 3 sectors still remain but they are all easy and rarely makes any difference.  Gruson (2 stars) comes 15km from the line while Hem (2 stars) is located 8km from the finish. The only real danger is the risk of punctures on these two pavés. Instead, it is often a very small hill with around 5km to go that may be the only launch pad for a late attack.

 

At this point the race is spread all over the roads of Northern France and the front of the race is often a pursuit between small groups and single riders. As fatigue has now set in dramatically, things usually remain as they are all the way to the finish on the famous velodrome in Roubaix. The riders end their race by doing one and a half lap on the track. If more riders are still together, the sprint is a very delicate affair as it comes down to a combination of speed, freshness and track skills in a kind of finish that is completely unique in the cycling world. In this sprint, nothing is as it usually is and the past has proved that major surprises may occur when the riders go head to head in a final dash to the line in Roubaix.

 

 

 

 

The weather

Dust or mud? The difference between a sunny or a rainy day in the Hell of the North is immense. If it has been dry for a few days, the dust whirls up from the pavés and the riders reach the velodrome in Roubaix with their faces covered in a thick layer. Rainy days have produced some of the most epic bike races ever and some of the most iconic images of riders reaching the finish completely covered in mud that make them look more like cyclo-cross than bike races.

 

We haven't had a real muddy Paris-Roubaix for a couple of years and it seems that we will have to wait at least another year for one of those epic editions. The unusually pleasant spring weather that has dominated the classics season continues for Sunday's race. It will be a rather cloudy start to the race but when the race reaches its climax at the pavés, the sun should be shining brightly over the peloton. The temperature will reach a maximum of 14 degrees by the time the riders roll into the velodrome in Roubaix.

 

Wind has often played a big role on the flat roads of Northern France and may do so again in Sunday's race. There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction. This means that the riders will generally have a cross-tailwind in the first flat part of the race before turning into a crosswind when the pavés start. There will be a headwind in the section just after Arenberg while there will again be headwind from the end of the 14th sector to the end of the crucial Mons-en-Pevele sector. Then the riders will do a few kilometres with crosswind and tailwind before again turning into a headwind for the important pavés 5, 4 and 3 that include the Carrefour de l'Arbre. Finally the riders will have a crosswind, turning to a cross-tailwind, during the run-in to Roubaix.

 

The favourites

Sunday's race is the last and biggest battle in a series of races that have all been dominated by the same contenders, and by now we all know who's in form and who's likely to have a classics season to forget. Most riders, however, have been on form since Milan-Sanremo and fatigue starts to set in. Furthermore, Paris-Roubaix is a different affair than the Flemish classics and the list of contenders varies slightly from what we have seen over the past few weeks. Finally, no one can underestimate the importance of team tactics and even though the strongest riders generally prevails in Roubaix, the 2011 and 2013 editions are just recent examples of how difficult it can be for the best rider if he finds himself isolated in the finale.

 

That element already played a big role in last Sunday's Tour of Flanders when the two major favourites, Fabian Cancellara and Peter Sagan, found them isolated after the Koppenberg and had to spend quite a bit of energy to chase down attacks and make sure that Greg Van Avermaet and Stijn Vandenbergh didn't get too much of an advantage. The same happened in last year's Roubaix when Cancellara found himself on his own after the Mons-en-Pevele and had to use his few key accelerations to get back in contention as different groups constantly went up the road, leaving him with no more shots to fire on the Carrefour de l'Arbre.

 

Last year's Roubaix and this year's Flanders have both made it evident that the way to race against Cancellara in the cobbled classics is by using the tactics of anticipation. Only a very select few have the power to match the Swiss when he goes full gas on the pavés but history proves that he can't make too many of those accelerations in a single race. If you are ahead by the time Cancellara puts in his decisive attack, you  may earn yourself a spot on the podium or a top 5 finish.

 

Most riders lined up in Flanders with that tactic and they will have similar plans for Sunday's race. We would expect the racing to be rather aggressive already after the Arenberg and the key contenders will start to go up the road by the time they have finished the Mons-en-Pevele sector. Most expects Cancellara to make his lethal acceleration on the Carrefour de l'Arbre and so the section between the 10th and the 4th pavé is the place to anticipate.

 

After his win in Flanders, it is hard not to put Cancellara on the top of the list of favourites. The Swiss proved that he was the strongest rider in the Flemish classic and even though he was unable to arrive solo at the finish, his win certainly was well-deserved. Many have argued that Cancellara was not as strong as he was one year ago but the way the 2013 and 2014 editions of the Tour of Flanders panned out suggest that he is not the least bit weaker than he was last year.

 

Last year he still had several teammates at his disposal in the section leading to the final passages of the Kwaremont and Paterberg, meaning that he could use the likes of Hayden Roulston and Stijn Devolder to control the attacks in the run-in to the two decisive climbs. By the time, they hit the Kwaremont for the final time, Cancellara virtually hadn't been in the wind yet and he had saved all his energy for his lethal attack.

 

This year he found himself already after the penultimate passage of those two climbs and had to make a first acceleration already on the Koppenberg to whittle down the number of rivals. Like Sagan and partially Sep Vanmarcke, he then had to spend a lot of energy by riding in the wind to keep Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh in check while also covering the many counterattacks that were launched at this point. Despite using a lot more energy, he still had enough left in the tank to accelerate so violently on the Kwaremont that only Vanmarcke could keep up with him.

 

Cancellara will probably again be the strongest rider in Sunday's race but he won't get it just a tiny bit easier than he did last Sunday. His team will play a key role in avoiding a dangerous "all-against-Cancellara" scenario but the Swiss could easily find himself isolated rather early in the race. It seemed that he would have his strongest ever team at his disposal but Stijn Devolder's many crashes have hampered his preparation significantly and at the moment of writing, his participation is still uncertain after he missed Wednesday's Scheldeprijs. He may be there at the start in Compiegne but he cannot be expected to be in the same kind of fabulous condition he showed in the first Flemish classics.  Yaroslav Popoych also missed Scheldeprijs and is a possible non-starter and Hayden Roulston hasn't hit his best form for the 2014 classics. Gregory Rast rode excellently in Sanremo and the first Flemish classics but was set back by illness in the week leading up to Roubaix which had clearly taken its toll on the strong Swiss. If Devolder is not at the start or in a fit state, he may still be Cancellara's key domestique in the finale but the Trek leader could easily find himself isolated after Mons-en-Pevele.

 

This could force Cancellara to go on the attack a bit earlier than planned to create a hard selection already way before Carrefour del'Arbre. After all, it is easier to control a 5-rider group than 15 eager rivals that all want to go on the attack. Cancellara may be the man to beat but he win is certainly not a given thing.

 

Nonetheless, the defending champion is the favourite. Last year he found himself in a similar situation and he still managed to come away with the win. Compared to some of his key rivals, he may be slightly better suited to Flanders than to Roubaix but recent history proves that only Tom Boonen is able to match him on the French pavés when he is at his best. After playing too much with his muscles in 2011, he has learnt that the most important is to win and he has been much wiser in recent classics season. Finally, he has worked a lot on his sprint over the winter and the results have been evident. He was 2nd in the bunch sprint in Sanremo and last week he beat Greg Van Avermaet and Sep Vanmarcke who on paper should both be faster, in Flanders. Cancellara has an excellent punch at the end of a long, hard race and he has the experience to handle the special sprint on the track in Roubaix. In short, Cancellara has the skills and the form to excel in Roubaix and will again be the man to beat.

 

One year ago Sep Vanmarcke came of age when he finished 2nd behind Cancellara in Roubaix. It came as no surprise that the young Belgian had the talent to be one of the real greats for the cobbled classics but the real chock was that his excellent performance came despite a disastrous preparation. Vanmarcke crashed out of Tirreno-Adriatico and missed all the key events leading up to Flanders and Roubaix and in De Ronde, he was evidently not at his best. However, things turned around in time for Roubaix and he put in a great ride.

 

Last year he rode a wise and aggressive race to make it into the group that Cancellara bridged across to in the finale and so didn't have to follow the Swiss when he attacked for the first time. When Cancellara went full gas on the Carrefour de l'Arbre, Vanmarcke stayed glued to his wheel and the Swiss was unable to shed him off. Last Sunday he did even better as he managed to stay with Cancellara on the Kwaremont despite not having anticipated the attack and he even had the strength to put the Swiss under pressure on the subsequent climb of the Paterberg.

 

Those two races both prove that there is a great chance that Vanmarcke will again be able to match Cancellara pedal stroke for pedal stroke. He needs to as he is now a major favourite and won't be allowed to go up the road. It wouldn't be a surprise if those two riders again emerge as the strongest riders in the race and it could again come down to a two-rider sprint in the velodrome. Vanmarcke is a very fast rider who even beat Tom Boonen in the 2012 Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and after last year's defeat, he has trained specifically for track sprints to be ready for Roubaix. Compared to Cancellara, however, he seems to lose a bit more speed with fatigue as he has now twice been beaten by his Swiss rival. On paper he should be the fastest of the duo though and no one can feel assured to beat the Belkin captain in a final dash to the line.

 

It's a great shame for Vanmarcke that Lars Boom was set back by an elbow fracture in Paris-Nice. In the past, the Dutchman has proved that he is one of the very best on the French pavés and he and Vanmarcke would have formed a lethal duo. Boom is now unlikely to feature in the finale but with Maarten Wynants and Maarten Tjallingii also on the roster, there is a chance that Vanmarcke will not be on his own even far deep into the finale.

 

Peter Sagan makes his return to Paris-Roubaix after a two-year absence and his participation may be somewhat of a surprise. In the past few years, Sagan has focused on Sanremo, Flanders and Amstel Gold Race but this year he has replaced the latter with the Hell of the North on his list of objectives. While it is no secret that he excels on short, steep climbs, he seems to struggle a bit more on the cobbles. The Flemish classics have put this evidently on show as he seems to be a lot stronger on the asphalted climbs than on the cobbled ones. It is no wonder that Trek and Cancellara had highlighted the long gradual cobbled ascent of the Kwaremont as the place to put the Slovakian under pressure.

 

While he would have been the favourite to win Amstel, he finds himself in more of an outsider role in Roubaix. The French classis is more about endurance and the ability to ride hard all day than about explosiveness and acceleration. This evidently makes it much harder for Sagan to prevail in Roubaix than it would be for him to take his first win in the Limburg province.

 

At the same time, Sagan doesn't seem to be as strong as he was one year ago. In both E3 Harelbeke and the Tour of Flanders, he was unable to follow the best while one year ago he stayed glued to Cancellara's wheel on the same ascent in the latter race. His Cannondale team insists that his numbers suggest that he is at least as good as he was in 2013, but if one adds his below-par showing in Sanremo and his poor sprinting all year, things don't seem to be working for the Slovakian this year.

 

Nonetheless, Sagan deserves the role as one of the favourites. In Sunday's race, he won't carry the burden of being one of two great favourites and so can allow to play the race more defensively. His great asset is of course is fast sprint and even though he has limited track experience, it would be a huge surprise if the versatile and technical astute Slovakian doesn't know how to handle the Roubaix velodrome. He won't be allowed to anticipate the attacks but he basically just has to ride a defensive race and focus entirely on his sprint. As usual, he will probably find himself isolated in the finale but his Cannondale team really stepped up their level in Flanders and especially Maciej Bodnar seems to be riding really strongly at the moment. Nonetheless, it will all come down to Sagan himself and even though he doesn't seem to be firing all cylinders and is in slightly unfamiliar terrain, it would be a bad idea to rule out the fabulous Slovakian.

 

In the current generation, the most skilled athlete for Paris-Roubaix is probably Tom Boonen. While he has always struggled a bit on the Flemish hellingen, he really excels on the French pavés and when he is at his best, no one has ever been able to drop him on the long road to Roubaix. It is no wonder that he is one of only two riders to have won the race four times but this year he finds himself in a difficult situation.

 

In the early part of the season, Boonen seemed to be back to his best when he was his usual dominant self in Qatar and climbed strongly in Paris-Nice. However, the personal problems that forced him out of Sanremo has clearly taken its toll and he has been far from his usual level. At Dwars door Vlaanderen, he rode terribly and he was still far behind the best at E3. However, his condition is clearly on the rise and he put in a solid ride at Flanders even though he was certainly not one of the strongest riders in that race.

 

Over the last week, his condition should have become even better and now he finds himself in the race that suits him the most. He is part of the strongest team in this race and this is a major asset for the strong Belgian. After the Carrefour de l'Arbre, the team should have at least Boonen, Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh in the lead group and as it was the case in Flanders, this will allow them to go on the attack.

 

Boonen's status and track record means that he won't be allowed to go up the road but that won't be too much of a hindrance. While riders like Cancellara and Sagan may be isolated and forced to do the work, Boonen can be allowed to follow wheels while his teammates attack off the front. His main job will be to follow the race favourites and focus on a final sprint in the Roubaix velodrome.

 

Due to his previous performances, it would be a surprise if Boonen can match the best on the pavés but he has a much better chance than he had one week ago. At the end of a long, hard race, he is very hard to beat in a sprint and he has plenty of experience on the velodrome. Boonen may not be atop favourite this year but we would expect him to be much closer to the win than he was last week.

 

If anyone hadn't realized before the Tour of Flanders, they should know it by now: when the races are longer than 230km, Alexander Kristoff is always a danger man. In Flanders, he didn't make the initial selection over the Koppenberg but got back in contention with a bigger group just before the Kwaremont. As fatigue had started to set in, the Norwegian was suddenly one of the strongest riders in the race and it was his fierce pace that made the group blow to pieces on the Kwaremont. Afterwards, he regretted having played a bit too much with the muscles as he felt he might have had the strength to follow Cancellara and Vanmarcke.

 

Roubaix suits Kristoff even better than Flanders. Last year he won the bunch sprint for 9th in that race and since then he has obviously stepped up his level. At the end of the monuments, he is probably the fastest rider of them all as he has won the bunch sprints in his four last monuments before arriving solo to take fifth last Sunday. It would be no bad idea for his rivals to make the race hard rather early to get rid of the Norwegian. If Kristoff is still there after the first 200km, he will be very hard to drop and no one will want to sprint against him in the Roubaix velodrome.

 

Omega Pharma-Quick Step have a lot of cards to play and one of their most important ones is Zdenek Stybar. The Czech got a fantastic debut in the race 12 months ago when only bad luck on the Carrefour de l'Arbre denied him the chance to sprint for the win in the Roubaix velodrome. On paper, the Tour of Flanders suits his explosive riding style better but apparently he is also a very skilled athlete for Roubaix. In fact, he didn't even anticipate Cancellara's first attacks but was the only rider who could follow the Swiss when he bridged across to the lead group in the finale.

 

While Boonen will wait for the final sprint, it will Stybar's job to go on the attack and this could give him the win in this race. He was probably the strongest Omega Pharma-Quick Step rider last Sunday and was not that far from matching Cancellara and Vanmarcke on the Oude Kwaremont. It was more a matter of team tactics that saw him end a bit further down the ranking. He has a very fast sprint and will be a danger man in the velodrome. Look out for Stybar to benefit from his team's strength in numbers to get up the road in the finale.

 

One of the other Omega Pharma-Quick Step riders with the task of going on the attack is Niki Terpstra. The Dutchman has been riding excellently all season and by finishing third in last year's race he proves that he has the skills for this race and can go the distance. Unlike Stybar, this race suits his riding style even better as he is less explosive and more of a diesel engine.

 

However, he has been riding really well for a very long time and it seems that his form in on the decline. In Flanders, he was clearly suffering a lot and not as strong as he had been in his previous races. He is not as fast as Stybar either but he has a lot of track experience and cannot be ruled out in a velodrome sprint after beating Greg Van Avermaet in the battle for third one year ago. He won't win a battle with the favourites but he may benefit from his team strength to take the win.

 

John Degenkolb didn't reach his best form for the classics one year ago but this year he finds himself with some excellent condition. At both E3 and the Tour of Flanders, he was one of the very strongest on the cobbled climbs and Sunday's race should suit him even better. He has an excellent sprint at the end of a long, hard race as he proved when he won Gent-Wevelgem and no one wants to sprint against him in Roubaix.

 

Usually, Degenkolb excels over long distances but in the past few classics he seems to have been worn out at the end. While a very similar rider like Kristoff has become stronger, Degenkolb seems to have faded in the finales and he needs to overcome that handicap if he wants to win. If he does, he will be a very dangerous man.

 

As a past double winner of the U23 edition of the race, Taylor Phinney got an excellent debut in this race two years ago where he took 15th despite working hard for his team. Last year expectations for his performance were great but he had a disappointing race to finish back in 23rd. Having been ill and missed out on the first cobbled classics and Sanremo, he has flown a bit more under the radar this time but he is still a dangerous outsider.

 

While he may not be an obvious contender in the Flemish classics, his riding style makes him perfectly suited to Roubaix. He is a diesel engine that rides well on the cobbles, he is fast and has plenty of track experience. His level of condition is a bit uncertain but he put in a solid ride in the breakaway at the Tour of Flanders. His main disadvantage is his lack of experience as he has never featured in the finale of a major classic.

 

Greg Van Avermaet put in the ride of the day at the Tour of Flanders and his podium spot was well-deserved. In Roubaix, however, he finds himself in terrain that suits him less. For several years, he skipped the French classic to focus on the Ardennes but last year he returned to Roubaix and took an excellent fourth.

 

Van Avermaet is clearly one of the strongest riders at the moment and in Sunday's race he has the added benefit of having more team support. In this race both Phinney and Thor Hushovd should do much better and Marcus Burghardt is clearly riding excellently at the moment. This provides the team with more tactical options and makes it more likely that Van Avermaet will manage to anticipate the favourites. As he is not as skilled in this race as he was in Flanders, however, he will probably need to go on the attack to come away with a podium spot.

 

Finally, Sky deserve a mention. Edvald Boasson Hagen and Bradley Wiggins are the two captains of the British team and will be excellently supported by Geraint Thomas. While Wiggins the big dark horse in the race, Boasson Hagen has already proved that he is good condition. He has been a perennial disappointment in the classics but this year he seems to be riding better than ever. In the Flemish classics, he was one of the strongest riders early in the race but seemed to use a bit too  much energy by going on the attack and he paid for it at the end.

 

His main disadvantage is that he seems to struggle over long distances and his only really excellent performance in a really long race was his 2nd at the 2012 World Championships. This year, however, he seems to be going better than ever and with more maturity, it may now be his time to shine.

 

***** Fabian Cancellara

**** Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan

*** Tom Boonen, Alexander Kristoff, Zdenek Stybar

** Niki Terpstra, John Degenkolb, Taylor Phinney, Greg Van Avermaet, Edvald Boasson Hagen

* Bradley Wiggins, Bjorn Leukemans, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Sebastian Langeveld, Thor Hushovd, Damien Gaudin, Sebastien Turgot, Marcus Burghardt, Borut Bozic, Luca Paolini, Filippo Pozzato