The season is coming to a close and many riders have put the curtain down on their seasons. Nonetheless, one of the biggest classics is still up for grabs. Paris-Tours may have lost a bit of prestige in recent years but its deep history makes it one of the most coveted races on the autumn calendar. Being one of the few major classics the sprinters can realistically target, it offers an incentive for the fast men to keep going all the way to the end and no sprinter palmares is complete without one of the oldest one-day races.

 

The climbers had their great finale last Sunday in Il Lombardia and tomorrow it is time for the sprinters to bring their season to a close with one of their biggest classics. Traditionally, Paris-Tours brings the curtain down on the season for the sprinters who relish their chance to add one of the major races to their palmares on a mostly flat course that suits them well.

 

What makes Paris-Tours a highly prestigious race is its long history. First held as an amateur event in 1896, the race had a scrappy beginning and wasn't back on the calendar until five years later. Another 5-year break followed until the paper L'Auto which also organized the Tour de France, took over the reins and organized it as an annual event for professionals starting in 1906.

 

Since then, the race has been an important element of the international calendar with only the 1915, 1916 and 1940 events being cancelled due to the world wars. Having originally been an autumn race, the event was moved to a spring date for the 1911 edition and remained there until 1951. Since then, it has had its current role as one of the major season-ending races held either in late September or in early October.

 

It just takes a short glance at the list of winners to realize that this is one of the major races on the cycling calendar. Several big-name riders - most of them sprinters and classics specialists - have won the race but it is one of the few major classics that eluded Eddy Merckx. The Belgian could have won the race in 1968 but chose to hand the victory to teammate Guido Reybrouck and never managed to triumph in Tours. Four riders have won the race 3 times: Gustaf Daneels, Paul Mayé, Reybrouck and most recently Erik Zabel who won the 1994, 2003 and 2005 editions of the race.

 

With its long history and high prestige, it was no wonder that the race was included on the World Cup calendar when the major one-day races were gathered in a season-long series prior for the 1989 season. It remained an important part of that competition until its demise in 2004 and was immediately included on the ProTour calendar when that new series was introduced for the 2005 season.

 

Like most other major French races, the race is organized by Tour de France organizers ASO - a legacy that goes back to L'Auto and the 1906 edition of the race - and so it was part of the conflict that raged between the grand tour organizers and the UCI and culminated in 2008. Like all other races organized by ASO, RCS or Unipublic, the race was removed from the calendar in 2008 but when an agreement between the parties was reached to make up a new world calendar for the 2009 season, the race was the only one not to be reinstated as one of the major races of cycling. Since then, it has been organized as a 1.HC on the UCI Europe Tour.

 

This relegation has seen the race lose a bit of prestige in recent years as all ProTeams are no longer obliged to line up at the major autumn classic. This year, only 11 of the 18 ProTeams will be on the start line with the rest of the 21 teams being made up of pro continental and even continental teams. Katusha, Lampre-Merida, Cannondale, Astana, Orica-GreenEDGE, Movistar and Sky will not be at the start line on Sunday.

 

In 2012, the UCI dealt the event a further blow when they restructured the calendar. For several years, Paris-Tours was held on the first Sunday after the world championships, with Il Lombardia bringing the curtain down on the classics season 6 days later. For the 2012 season, UCI decided to swap the two events around to create a better synergy between Il Lombardia and the battle for the rainbow jersey. While the Italian classic has seen a boosted line-up for its three most recent editions, the French race has found it more difficult to attract the major sprinters who have often ended their season at this time of the year. This has of course been aggravated by the hilly courses for the three latest World Championships road races. While several strong sprinters will be on  the start line, it is an indication of the loss of prestige that riders like Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish have not found it worthwhile to include it on the calendar.

 

It is no wonder that the race has been a stomping ground for sprinters. Held in a part of France that is mostly flat, the amount of climbing is bearable and the race often ends in a bunch sprint. Since 1919, the organizers have tried to make things a bit tougher by approaching Tours from different directions to add more climbs but it has made little difference. Between 1974 and 1987, the route constantly changed and changed name several times as numerous editions didn't even finish in Tours. In 1988, the race was back in its usual finishing city even though the shorter distances of modern day cycling means that a start in Paris is no longer possible. Due to its position as a Europe Tour race, the race is no longer one of the longest on a the calendar, with the length having been shortened from 250-260km to around 230km since the 2009 edition.

 

That being said, the sprinters have often been foiled in recent years. The approach to Tours includes several smaller hills and they have been enough to deny the sprinters the chance to sprint for victory. Since the year 2000, only 5 editions have finished in bunch sprints, with last year’s edition being the first to be won by a sprinter since Oscar Freire took his only win in the race in 2010. For many years, the race was known for its long finishing straight on the famous Avenue de Grammont but since 2011, the construction of a new tram line has forced ASO to shorten the straight, making life even more difficult for the sprinters.

 

Last year it again looked like the sprinters were going to be foiled when a small group got clear on the final climbs. Jetse Bol made a late attack out of this group and looked like he was going to stay away. In the end, however, Giant-Shimano and FDJ combined forces to bring it back for the first bunch sprint since to 2010, with pre-race favourite John Degenkolb beating Michael Mørkøv and Arnaud Demare in convincing fashion to make up for his disappointment from 2012. Degenkolb will be back to defend his title on the back of a fantastic second half of the season that has seen him claim four stages and the points jersey in the Vuelta and finish in the top 10 at Worlds. Demare and Mørkøv will also be back to try to do better, with the former having made the race his big goal in the final part of the season.

 

The course

As said, ASO have made lots of changes to the course, trying to make the run-in to the finish a bit harder. However, the changes have made little difference and in recent years they have found a rather fixed format. All plans of moving the finish away from Tours have been abandoned and nowadays the approach to the finish is always the same, with the riders tackling the same two climbs in the finale. The only main change is the shorter finishing straight which has made life tougher for the sprinters.

 

While the second half of the race is usually the same, ASO usually make a few changes to the opening part, with the starting city changing from year to year, the main characteristics of the course remain the same. Since 2009, the length has usually been at around 230km and the race starts somewhere north of Tours and continues in a mostly southern direction towards the finish and the traditional small loop around the city that sends the riders up a few smaller climbs during the run-in to the great finale on Avenue de Grammont. This year will be no different and the 2014 edition shapes up to be a classic version of the race.

 

As said, the days when the race started in Paris are long gone and this year's edition will take off from Bonneval which has replaced Authon-du-Perche as the site of departure. To reach the required distance, the riders won't head south right from the beginning. Instead, they will travel in a northerly to do a small loop before they reach last year's course close to the city of Chateaudun. From there, the course will be identical to last year's and will have a total length of 237.5km which is more or less the same as the 235km one year ago.

 

The long southern journey is mostly flat with only a few small climbs included along the way to tire out the riders' legs. The only real difficulty is the wind that has often had a major impact on the race. As usual the riders will continue past Tours and make a small loop in the area southeast of the city to approach the finish from a southwesterly direction. This is where the main difficulties are all located as the riders are led onto small, twisting roads that are mostly flat but have a number of smaller climbs of which three deserve a mention.

 

Things kick off with the Cote de Crochu 30.5km from the finish but the scene for the decisive attacks that may foil the sprinters are the Cote de Beau Soleil and Cote de l'Epan that are located 10km and 7km from  the finish respectively. At the top of both climbs the riders continue for a little while before reaching the descents. The final of those leads onto the final 5km stretch that is almost entirely flat. As said, the finishing straight on the Avenue de Grammont has been shortened since 2011, making it more feasible for the attackers to stay away all the way to the finish.

 

It would be a mistake to compare Paris-Tours to a flat stage in a grand tour. Due to the lack of geographical challenges, the classics specialists have to ride hard to produce the kind of selection that can allow them to go for the victory and the most recent editions have all been raced at very high speed, with 2012 being a slight exception. In 2012, Oscar Freire's 2010 record was broken when Marco Marcato covered the distance at an average speed of 48.629km/h.

 

The early part of the stage usually pans out like every other race with the creation of an early breakaway but for the riders, it's about staying careful all the time. Whenever there's a chance to split things up in the wind, one or more teams will try to exploit the situation and the final 50km are usually a festival of attacks with numerous groups going up the road at different points of the race. The decisive attacks are usually launched on the two climbs inside the final 10km but may take off a bit earlier as it was the case in 2012 when Marcato's group got away with 25km to go before being trimmed down to a trio on the late climbs. In 2011, the selection was made in the wind more than 50km from the finish. The two final climbs were the launch pads for Philippe Gilbert’s wins when he took back-to-back victories. After the Cote de l’Epan, it is time to take stock of the situation and for the depleted sprint teams to get organized. The final 7km from the Cote de l'Epan to the finish usually develop into a fierce pursuit where the sprint teams try to reel in the attackers while also keeping something left in the tank for the lead-out.

 

 

 

 

The weather

For a flat race like Paris-Tours, the weather plays a crucial role as the wind is often one of the key factors that shape the race. This year the wind won’t be very strong but with a crosswind for most of the day, it may have a significant impact on the race.

 

At the start in Bonneval, the riders will face cloudy conditions but as the race goes on, there is a chance that there will be a bit of sunshine too. It will be unusually warm for this time of the year as the temperature will reach a maximum of 22 degrees which is very atypical for the late-season race.

 

There will be a moderate wind from a westerly direction which means that the riders will first have face a head- and a tailwind section but for most of the day, they will have a crosswind from the left as they travel in a southerly direction. Doing the final small loop around Tours in the finale, the riders will turn into a tailwind which should make for a very fast finish. In the run-in to Tours, however, there will be a headwind which will make it tough for attackers to stay away.

 

The favourites

Last year the long drought for the sprinters was finally broken when John Degenkolb emerged as the strongest in Tours. However, the sprint teams had a hard time bringing it back together for a bunch sprint as they only caught Jetse Bol very late in the race.

 

It is hard to say why it seems to have become harder for the sprinters to come to the fore in Tours. The shorter finishing straight definitely plays a role as it gives the sprint teams less time to organize a chase. The later date may also influence the outcome. Coming two weeks after the Worlds, it is harder for the riders to maintain their condition. Even though the sprinters are still in great form, none of them are surrounded by 7 fresh domestiques. Lots of squads are depleted and the race usually has many abandonments. At this point of the season, it is simply easier for the fresher riders to make a difference.

 

Nonetheless, it is hard to look beyond the sprinters as the favourites for this year’s race. This year the number of in-form attackers seems to be smaller than it has been in the last few years. Riders like Philippe Gilbert and Filippo Pozzato who have traditionally played key roles in the race, have travelled to China for the Tour of Beijing. Furthermore, several sprinters have shown good form in recent races and this means that more teams are likely to combine forces in the chase behind the attacks in the finale. Most importantly, however, the headwind in the finale could make all the difference. A headwind clearly favours the peloton over a small group. Furthermore, the headwind often makes the battle in the breakaway a bit more tactical which is an advantage for the peloton.

 

Nonetheless, we can again expect a very aggressive finale and the final attackers will probably be caught inside the final 5km, making for a very exciting end to the classics season. Giant-Shimano, Trek and FDJ are likely to do the majority of the work and those three teams should be strong enough to bring it down to a bunch sprint after what will definitely be a hectic finish. What could change the script is the wind which will be blowing from the side almost all day. It would be a surprise if some teams don’t try to exploit the conditions and this should make it a very fast and stressful race. The wind is probably not strong enough to catch out any of the favourites but it would be no surprise if several riders are left behind along the way to Tours. In the finale, however, the riders will have either a tail- or a headwind, meaning that we are unlikely to see any splits in the final 20km.

 

Last year the race was billed as a big duel between John Degenkolb and Arnaud Demare and again those two riders stand out as the major favourites. Both excel in sprints at the end of long, hard races and for the second year in a row, they are both in great condition at the end of the season. It speaks volumes about their dedication and endurance that they have this unique ability to keep going at this late point of the season year after year and tomorrow’s race is their big incentive for maintaining the condition. For most of the day, they will be allies in the fight against the attackers but in the finale they are likely to battle against each other in what is a highly anticipated battle between two of the best classics sprinters in the world.

 

Arnaud Demare may have won several races in the last few weeks but it is hard not to put John Degenkolb at the top of the list of favourites. The German won last year’s race in impressive fashion and this year he seems to be even stronger.

 

Degenkolb performed excellently in the Vuelta where he won four stages and his performances in Spain made him one of the big favourites for the Worlds. Unfortunately, a crash in the grand tour forced him to spend several days in hospital, making his condition for the race in Ponferrada highly uncertain. However, he performed really well, finishing second behind Alexander Kristoff in the sprint for 8th. Since then he has maintained his condition and has been riding very consistently. In the Münsterland Giro, he was beaten into second by André Greipel while he put his form on show in the hard finale of Binche-Chimay-Binche. Despite leading the chase of lone attacker Zdenek Stybar, he was clearly the strongest in the sprint for second, proving that he is much more than a pure sprinter. Most recently, he defended his title in Paris-Bourges, the traditional warm-up race for Paris-Tours.

 

Degenkolb is not only in great condition, he is perfectly suited to the French autumn classic. Being more of a classics rider than a pure sprinter, he excels at the end of a long, hard race. The distance and the crosswind will play into the hands of the fast German who is very hard to beat in sprints at the end of races of more than 230km. Finally, the long finishing straight suits his powerful sprinting style perfectly.

 

Degenkolb’s main weakness is the fact that he often gets a bit lost in the finales. He is very reliant on his lead-out train to bring him into position. However, Paris-Tours is likely to finish with a sprint from a smaller group and the wide finishing straight should make the fight for position less fierce. He can rely on a formidable lead-out by Nikias Arndt, Ramon Sinkeldam and final lead-out man Koen De Kort. Being the fastest rider in a power sprint, Degenkolb is the obvious favourite to win the race.

 

Last year Arnaud Demare was not really close to beating Degenkolb and he had to settle for a disappointing third place. This year he is back to get his revenge and with the French champion’s jersey on his shoulders, he will love to win one of France’s most prestigious classics.

 

12 months ago he entered the race with some solid results in his recent races but this year he has been nearly unstoppable in the last few months and he is definitely a lot stronger in 2014. The Tour de France ended as a big disappointment for the strong Frenchman but after he restarted his season, he has rediscovered his best legs. He got the ball rolling when he won the Kampioenschap van Vlaanderen and Grand Prix d’Isbergues in September but his main performance was the one he delivered in the Tour de l’Eurometropole last week. The FDJ sprinter won three of the four stages and took a very comfortable overall victory.

 

This year he decided to skip Paris-Bourges and so we have had no direct match between Degenkolb and Demare since they finished first and second respectively in Gent-Wevelgem in late March. This makes the outcome of a sprint finish highly uncertain but both riders are clearly in great form. Like Degenkolb, Demare can count on his trusted lead-out train as he will have both William Bonnet and Mickael Delage at his side.

 

What makes Degenkolb our favourite is the fact that he is much better suited to this kind of power sprint. Demare usually prefers a few technical challenges and a slightly uphill finishing straight. He has a formidable kick but Degenkolb is probably slightly faster when it is more about pure speed. Furthermore, Demare very often gets boxed in which means that he often finishes outside the top 10. This suggests that he will have a hard time beating Degenkolb but all is set for an exciting duel where both riders have a real chance of winning the race.

 

Demare and Degenkolb have to be attentive in the sprint as they can’t solely focus on their internal battle. Giacomo Nizzolo is another great classics sprinter who has finished on the podium in several big sprint races in 2013 and 2014. This year he was second in Vattenfall Cyclassics and finished behind Alexander Kristoff in the sprint for the minor placings in the GP Plouay.

 

Nizzolo made some mistakes in the Brussels Cycling Classic and had some bad luck in the GP Fourmies before stomach problems forced him out of the Tour de l’Eurometropole. However, he proved that he is still in good condition when he finished third in Paris-Bourges two days ago. He has made it clear that he targets one final big result in Tours in a race that suits him down to the ground.

 

Nizzolo excels at the end of long races and it is no wonder that he usually performs well in the big one-day races. At his best, he is one of the fastest riders in the world as he proved in the Giro where he got extremely close to beating Nacer Bouhanni on several occasions. He may not have his best lead-out train at his disposal but Jasper Stuyven should be able to position him well. In the past, he has proved that he knows how to handle a tricky finale on his own and if he manages to position himself on the right wheel in the finale, he has the speed to finally take a big breakthrough victory.

 

Like last year Jens Debusschere goes into Paris-Tours on the back of a very strong showing in the Tour de l’Eurometropole. He may have been unable to defend his title but three straight second places were enough to secure an overall second place in the race he won in 2013. A few days later, he was among the strongest in the hard finale of Binche-Chimay-Binche, sprinting to third behind John Degenkolb and late attacker Zdenek Stybar.

 

Debusschere will have to share sprinting duties with Jonas Vangenechten and the pair will probably make a decision about who to ride for during the race. However, Debusschere seemed to be the strongest in the Tour de l’Eurometropole and he is better suited to this kind of long, hard race than Vangenechten who is more of a pure sprinter.

 

Debusschere may not be as fast as the likes of Degenkolb, Demare and Nizzolo but it would be unwise to underestimate the fast Belgian. Earlier this year he won the Belgian championships, beating fast riders at the end of a long race. He is clearly still riding strong towards the end of the season and this makes him a potential winner of tomorrow’s race.

 

In case Debusschere is not up for the challenge, Jonas Vangenechten will be ready to step in. With wins in the GP Fourmies and Druivenkoers Overijse and most notably a stage win in the Tour de Pologne, he has had a breakthrough season in 2014. Those results prove how fast he is and he is clearly still riding well. In the Tour de l’Eurometropole, he mostly put himself in service of Debusschere but he excelled by taking seventh in Binche-Chimay-Binche whose finale should usually have been too hard for him.

 

In the past, one would probably have deemed Paris-Tours a bit too tough for Vangenechten but in Binche and Overijse he proved that he has become a lot stronger. In Poland, he proved that he is one of the fastest riders and he is perfectly suited to this kind of very fast sprint on the Avenue de Grammont. This makes him a danger man in Tours where he will be ready to shine if Lotto Belisol decides to support the fast Belgian.

 

Yauheni Hutarovich was once regarded as a big sprinting talent but in the last few years his progress has stalled. After a winless 2013, he has got his career back of track and would love to finish his time with Ag2r with a bang before he joins Bretagne in 2015.

 

Hutarovich has been riding very strongly in the second half of the season, kicking it off with a stage win in the Tour de Pologne. The Vuelta never went according to plan but he has bounced back in the last few weeks. He finished second in the GP d’Isbergues and more importantly he was second in Paris-Bourges two days ago. A few years ago he had an excellent track record in the sprint classics where he often finished on the podium in races likes Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne and Scheldeprijs and he is perfectly suited to the long finishing straight on Avenue de Grammont.

 

Greg Van Avermaet is a past winner of this race and there is no doubt that the Belgian will be ready to attack in the finale. Showing an amazing consistency, he has been riding strongly since he got close to several stage wins in the Tour de France and two weeks ago he narrowly missed the podium at the Worlds. Going into that race, he had taken two straight wins which is rare for a rider who is always a protagonist but no big winner.

 

After the Worlds, Van Avermaet did Binche-Chimay-Binche where he finished fourth. That race maybe gave indications that fatigue is finally starting to set in and that Van Avermaet may no longer be quite as strong as he was a few weeks ago. However, he is definitely one of the strongest riders on the climbs in the finale and he is guaranteed to be part of the action. Being a fast sprinter, he has the skills to win if a small group escapes in the finale.

 

The same can be said for Matti Breschel. The Dane has had a hard time finding his previous level but in Ponferrada he was suddenly back at 100%. He managed to follow the best on the final climb and was narrowly denied a third medal by Simon Gerrans and Alejandro Valverde. Since then he has finished fifth in the Tour de l’Eurometropole and 9th in Paris-Bourges.

 

Breschel is a pretty fast sprinter but he has no chance against riders like Degenkolb, Nizzolo and Demare. To win the race, he needs to ride aggressively in the finale and that is definitely what he will try to do. He should be one of the strongest riders on the two climbs late in the race and if he joins a small group, there is a big chance that he will be the fastest rider.

 

Another rider that will be keen to go on the attack is Sep Vanmarcke. The Belgian was in great form at the World Championships where he rode aggressively for most of the day. A few weeks earlier he had been very strong in the Canadian races which should actually have been too hard for him and last Tuesday he proved that he is still in good condition when he finished fifth in Binche-Chimay-Binche.

 

Vanmarcke is part of a Belkin team that has no rider capable of winning a bunch sprint and so they need to ride aggressively. Due to his great condition, Vanmarcke is their best card and he is well-suited to the climbs in the finale. He has a very fast sprint as he proved when he famously beat Boonen in the Omloop Het Nieuwsblad a few years ago and in this makes him an obvious winner candidate from a late breakaway.

 

Sylvain Chavanel is another rider that will be keen to ride aggressively. Earlier this year his attacks paid off when he won the GP Plouay and he will be eager to add another big home race to his palmares. The short climbs suit him well and his great skills as a rouleur give him a better chance of staying away to the finish. Finally, he has a fast sprint, making him the perfect rider for this race.

 

Chavanel was very strong in late August but never played a role in the World Championships. He is starting to show signs of fatigue and may no longer be able to make an impact at the end of a hard race like Paris-Tours. However, you can never rule out Chavanel who has all the skills to shine in this race.

 

Tom Van Asbroeck has had an amazing season which has earned him a contract with the Belkin team which will be known as Team LottoNL in the future. The Belgian has had an amazing number of top 10 results and this race is another one where a top result is within reach for the Topsport Vlaanderen rider. He is fast in a sprint and climbs solidly on shorter climbs which makes him suited to the final big sprint classic of the year.

 

Recently, he finished on the podium in the Münsterland Giro but he showed signs of fatigue in Binche-Chimay-Binche where he could only manage 17th. Whether he is still fresh enough to go for glory in Tours remains to be seen but he is definitely a great outsider. He will share sprinting duties with an in-form Michael Van Staeyen and as usual, the pair is likely to do their separate sprints, giving Topsport Vlaanderen a dangerous two-pronged attack

 

***** John Degenkolb

**** Arnaud Demare, Giacomo Nizzolo

*** Jens Debusschere, Jonas Vangenechten, Yauheni Hutarovich

** Greg Van Avermaet, Matti Breschel, Sep Vanmarcke, Sylvain Chavanel, Tom Van Asbroeck, Michael Van Staeyen

* Niki Terpstra, Bjorn Leukemans, Roy Jans, Raymond Kreder, Kristian Sbaragli Jempy Drucker, Romain Feillu, Gianluca Brambilla, Thomas De Gendt, Dylan Teuns, Loic Vliegen, Robert Wagner, Thomas Voeckler, Jack Bauer, Dylan van Baarle, Adrien Petit, Romain Hardy, Jasper Stuyven, Sondre Holst Enger, Laurens De Vreese, Benjamin Giraud, Stephane Rossetto, Baptiste Planckaert