In addition to several one-day races and Paris-Nice in the weekend, this week offers two stage races, the Tour de Langkawi and the Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen. Every day we will offer you short previews of the stages at both the Malaysian and Belgian race.

Tour de Langkawi, stage 6:

The course:

The race usually includes a lumpier stage in the second half and this is also the case in 2016. On the sixth day, the riders will tackle 147.6 relatively hilly kilometres from Putrajaya to Rembau. After a mostly flat first part with two small category 4 climbs, there’s a category 3 climb at the midpoint. Then it’s back onto flat roads before the riders get to the final category 3 climb whose summit comes just 7.8km from the finish. It’s a long, gradual rise followed by a fast descent that leads to 5 flat kilometres in the end. Again it is a very technical finish as there is a U-turn with 500m to go and a sharp 90-degree turn just 100m from the line.

The weather:

After one day in dry conditions, there could be more rain on Monday. Again it will be sunny with a maximum temperature of 32 degrees but late in the afternoon there is 25% chance of rain. Luckily the race is likely to have finished by that time. There will be a moderate wind from a northeasterly direction which means that it will be a crosswind almost all day until the riders turn into a tailwind for the final climb. It will mostly be a tailwind in the finale until the riders do the final two turns inside the final 500m.

The favourites:

Most had expected the battle for the overall win to be over after the queen stage but the emergence as Reinardt van Rensburg as a GC contender as now created a very interesting dynamic to the second half of the race. Instead of the usual sprint festival, the overall win is still up for grabs as Dimension Data and van Rensburg have clearly not given up. Today the South African picked up 6 bonus seconds and as he is only 23 seconds behind Lopez in the overall standings, he can still take the win.

To do so, van Rensburg needs to pick up lots of bonus seconds in the intermediate sprints or the finishes. He knows that it will be hard to win the flat final two stages and so tomorrow’s stage becomes the crucial one if he wants to take overall victory. The late climb means that it will be far harder than most of the other stages and will give him and Dimension Data a chance to drop the sprinters before they get to the sprint. A stage win here and a few bonus seconds in the intermediate sprints would suddenly move him a lot closer to Lopez in the overall standings.

That will change the dynamic of the race. Very often the hilly stage in the second half of the race has been one for a breakaway and there is no doubt that many attackers have had their eyes on this one. However, Dimension Data simply have to go all out for the overall win and make sure that it comes down to a sprint. Astana have made it clear that the overall win is more important than stage wins for Guadrini so they won’t do anything to control things but Dimension Data will be riding hard. The main question is whether they can control what will be an aggressive stage with just 6 riders, especially on the final climb when attacks will be flying.

It is hard to get any information about the final climb but it is unlikely to be too difficult as that is rarely the case in this race. We believe that Dimension Data will be able to control things, especially as Astana have to lend a hand if some of the GC contenders attack on the final climb, Skydive may also come to the fore and so we expect a reduced bunch sprint.

When a stage last included a tough climb in the finale on the second day, most of the sprinters survived but they were tired at the end and this changed the outcome, with Palini suddenly being able to beat Guardini in a head-to-head battle. This time the climb comes even closer to the finish so this should favour the stronger sprinters even more.

Among the fast guys, Andrea Palini is one of the best climbers and that’s what allowed him to win stage 2. He should be able to survive the climbs and be ready for the sprint in Rembau. He doesn’t have much team support but that’s never a problem for him as he is one of the very best at positioning himself. Furthermore, he loves this kind of technical finish. His freshness at the end and his great technical skills make him our favourite to win the stage.

Reinardt van Rensburg got close to victory in stage 2 where he sprinted to third after being set perfectly up by his teammates. However, he is not as fast as the likes of Guardini and Palini and needs a hard race to win. That’s probably what he will get tomorrow and that makes him a great contender. However, it will still be hard for him to beat Palini, especially as his team will probably have to work so hard that there won’t be much team support.

Stage 2 was too hard for Guardini and it is likely to be the same here. Even if he makes it over the climb, he will probably be tired and won’t have much time to get back into position. On the other hand, he is the fastest rider in this race and he may be able to rely more on his team as they won’t have to do as much work throughout the stage. It will be hard for him to win but if he is there at the finish, he will always be a contender.

In this technical finish, lead-outs will be very important. Tinkoff have been doing great in the last few stages and their two sprinters Erik Baska and Michael Kolar have both been climbing well. Today Baska was their man but usually Kolar is the protected sprinter. If their train can again excel, they have a chance to finish it off in this kind of finish.

Unitedhealthcare also have a great train, especially for his kind of harder finish. John Murphy is also not climbing too bad and even though he is no van Rensburg, he should be able to survive. His team has already delivered him to victory once and they can do so again in this finale.

Brenton Jones is usually not climbing very well but in this race he has actually been strong. This means that he may survive the final climb. It will be hard for him to win after such a hard race but he is one of the fastest here.

Paolo Simion and Luca Pacioni are young Italian sprinters that have both climbed well until now. Whether they have the speed to win is doubtful but they should be able to do well here. Finally, we will point to Tanner Putt as a joker if a strong group makes it to the finish. The American is both a good climber in this kind of terrain and has a fast sprint.

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Andrea Palini

Other winner candidates: Reinardt van Rensburg, Andrea Guardini

Outsiders: Michael Kolar, Erik Baska, John Murphy, Brenton Jones

Jokers: Paolo Simion, Luca Pacioni, Tanner Putt