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Will Dylan Groenewegen take his second win of the year in West Flanders?

Photo: Lotto NL-Jumbo

DRIEDAAGSE VAN WEST-VLAANDEREN

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NEWS
05.03.2016 @ 13:30 Posted by Emil Axelgaard

In addition to several one-day races and Paris-Nice in the weekend, this week offers two stage races, the Tour de Langkawi and the Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen. Every day we will offer you short previews of the stages at both the Malaysian and Belgian race.

 

You can read a preview of Strade Bianche here.

 

Driedaagse van West-Vlaanderen, stage 1:

The course:

The first stage will bring the riders over 176.3km from Brugge to Harelbeke. After a flat opening section, the riders head into the Flemish Ardennes where they will go up four famous hellingen: Tiegemberg, Holstraat, Oude Kwaremont and Tiegemberg again. The top of the latter climb comes with 56km to go and then the riders will head back north to Harelbeke where they will finish the race by doing four laps of a 10.6km finishing circuit that is pretty technical and completely flat. The finale is very technical with several roundabouts, including a left-hand turn in a roundabout 350 from the line.

 

 

The weather:

Saturday will be a cloudy day but the sun may come out occasionally in the afternoon. The maximum temperature will be 7 degrees. There will only be a light wind from a northerly direction which means that it will first be a tailwind and then a crosswind in the hilly zine. It will be a cross-headwind on the way back to Harelbeke. On the finishing circuit, the wind will come from every direction but it will be a headwind in the final part.

 

The favourites:

It has long been known that Tom Bohli was a big time trial talent but it was still a surprise that he both managed to win the prologue and beat the course record. His results at the U23 level have been solid but they are not spectacular. Last year he was 8th in the Eurometropole prologue so this marks a massive improvement.

 

Bohli is in a good position as the won with a pretty big margin. None of his nearest rivals are very fast and it will be hard for them to get enough bonus seconds. Lukasz Wisniowski looms as the biggest threat but he is not fast enough to finish in the top 3 in a big bunch sprint. He has an advantage of more than 25 seconds over all the sprinters and so he probably has to miss a split to lose the lead.

 

However, Bohli hasn’t really excelled in toad races yet and he is surrounded by a very young team here. The team lost Peter Velits before the race as he had to replace Rohan Dennis at Paris-Nice so he only has five teammates who are all very young. They are up against a strong classics team like Etixx-QuickStep and Lotto Soudal also have a powerful team here. They can expect to really be put under pressure during the two road stages.

 

Hence, they will be pleased to know that the weather will be pleasant tomorrow. It will be dry and there will barely be any wind. There is little doubt that Etixx-QuickStep will try to blow the race to pieces in the hilly zone, most notably on the Kwaremont, but it will be harder to keep a small group going in these conditions, especially as it will be a cross-headwind in the finale.

 

The most likely outcome is that it will come back together for a bunch sprint. However, Bohli is untested in this terrain and if he is distanced in the hilly zone, a small group of classics riders could make it to the finish to decide it on the finishing circuit.

 

Dylan Groenewegen is clearly the fastest rider in this race. Furthermore, he proved in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne and Le Samyn that he is very strong in tough classics races. We doubt that Etixx-QuickStep will be able to distance the in-form Dutchman on the climbs. He is surrounded by a strong team that includes Maarten Wynants and Martijn Keizer who showed his good form with second place today. In case of a big bunch sprint, he has Robert Wagner for the lead-out but he is also good at positioning himself. Groenewegen can win this stage both from a small group and a big sprint and is out favourite.

 

Katusha were left frustrated as Anton Vorobyev was unable to repeat last year’s prologue win. Now they set their sights on the road stages. Alexander Porsev is one of the fastest riders here and his good prologue indicates that he has returned to form after his recent illness. He has Viachelsav Kuznetsov and Alexey Tsatevich for the lead-out and this could turn out to be the best train here. We doubt that Porsev will be there if it’s a smaller group but in a bunch sprint, he is one of the favourites. If it’s a smaller group, Tsatevich is likely to be their man for the sprint.

 

FDJ have not had much success in Belgium yet but they will be ready to strike in a bunch sprint. They have both Lorrenzo Manzin and Marc Sarreau here but it seems that the former is the in-form rider at the moment. The youngster won a bunch sprint in his neo pro season and looked strong in Provence where only a crash prevented him from scoring a top result. He should be up there in a bunch sprint.

 

Timothy Dupont and Baptiste Planckaert are both continental sprinters but they are hugely consistent at this level. They both seem to be in good form at the moment and if it’s a big bunch sprint, it’s not impossible for them to win.

 

Yauheni Hutarovich is not as fast as he once was but in this field he should be one of the best and Forutneo have a decent train. The same goes for the very powerful Wanty-Groupe Gobert team that has plenty of cards to play. We expect Antoine Demoitie to be their man for the sprint but Kenny Dehaes or Danilo Napolitano could also be given the nod.

 

If the race becomes a bit harder, look out for Davide Martinelli, Lukasz Wisniowski, Florian Senechal, Tony Hurel, Tosh van der Sande and Tsatevich.

 

Other riders for a bunch sprint include Rick Zabel, Andrea Paqualon, Bert van Lerberghe, Amaury Capiot, Jonas Ahlstrand, Borut Bozic, Michael van Staeyen, Ryan Anderson, Hurel, Andre Looij, Chris Opie, Yanto Barker, Steele von Hoff, Nicolas Vereecken, Aidis Kruopis, Joeri Stallaert, Frederique Robert and Yoeri Havik.

 

CyclingQuotes’ stage winner pick: Dylan Groenewegen

Other winner candidates: Alexander Porsev, Lorrenzo Manzin

Outsiders: Timonthy Dupont, Baptiste Planckaert, Yauheni Hutarovich, Antoine Demoitie, Kenny Dehaes, Danilo Napolitano

Jokers: Davide Martinelli, Lukasz Wisniowski, Florian Senechal, Tony Hurel, Tosh van der Sande, Alexey Tsatevich

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