An unexpected collapse from the seemingly invincible Sky team, a dominant display of force by Chris Froome and rival teams with strength in numbers have been some of the headlines in a highly entertaining first week of the Tour de France. At the moment, Froome may appear unbeatable but yesterday's dramatic events have certainly provided his opponents with a glimmer of hope. CyclingQuotes takes a look back at the first 9 stages as we ask ourselves what we have learnt from the first part of the race.
Sky are vulnerable
What a difference 24 hours can make? On Saturday, Team Sky were on the top of the world, having just stamped ther authority on the Tour de France with a dominant showing on the climb to Ax-3-Domaines that had left the world speechless. One day later, the team crumbled under the Garmin and Movistar pressure and were on their knees as team leader Chris Froome was left to fend for himself after less than 40km of racing. During the last two years, the team have only been left in similar tatters once: in the penultimate stage of this year's Tirreno-Adriatico.
Just as the world and the rival teams were resigned to a repeat of the dominant 2012 showing and the doping accusations had once again started to flare up, the team gave maybe its best possible response to those suspicions. Yesterday's collapse proved that the team's riders are humans, not robots, and despite the evident analogy the British squad is a far cry from the invincible US Postal team.
While Richie Porte's breakdown came as a surprise, it had been evident from the beginning that there was a world of difference between last year's dominant formation and this year's line-up. Already during the Corsican stages, Movistar and Garmin had sensed that not everything was as last year. Usually excellent climbers David Lopez and Kanstantsin Siutsou were left behind on the easier climbs on the island while Geraint Thomas got much attention for his broken pelvis. That left Froome and Porte with only Vasil Kiryienka and Peter Kennaugh as their key domestiques in the mountains. Those two stepped up their game on Saturday but unlike last year, it was only a two-rider support crew that set up Froome and Porte for their dominant showing.
The rival teams have every reason to believe that they can put Sky under pressure in the Alps. Kiryienka - usually one of the world's most consistent bike riders - had a terrible day on Sunday and finished outside the time limit. With Kennaugh licking his wounds from his spectacular crash and Siutsou and Lopez showing no signs of improvement, Porte and Froome could be isolated very early in the Alpine stages.
It may be up to Porte to save Froome from a repeat of yesterday's exposed position. Yesterday the Australian was down but he is certainly not out and nothing suggests that he will not bounce back later in the race. At the same time, Thomas shows signs of improvement, giving Froome a glimmer of hope on a rest day otherwise dominated by concern. What should be most worrying is that yesterday made it evident that Froome can be isolated and his rivals will certainly try to recreate yesterday's scenario in the Alps.
Is Froome invincible?
While yesterday gave way for a surprising Sky collapse, there was certainly no Froome breakdown. His rivals must be left with mixed emotions: on the one hand Froome was left exposed on the roads to Bagneres-de-Bigorre, on the other hand his own showing was a dominant one and at no time he appeared to be even close to cracking.
Froome even finds himself in the comfortable situation that the second week of racing is certainly one for him to increase his advantage. Mostly consisting of sprint stages as the race travels from Britanny to the Alps, the middle third of the race is by far the easiest. The GC riders will only clash twice - in the mostly flat time trial to Mont-Saint-Michel and the mammoth 242,5km stage to Mont Ventoux - and both play into Froome's hands.
Being the superior time triallist among the race favourites, Froome is likely to put at least a minute into all of his rivals in the 33km test. At the same time, Froome has emerged as almost unbeatable on the climbs and the Mont Ventoux stage offers very little chance of tactical chess games. It will all come down to pure power on the final climb and no one is likely to match Froome in such a scenario.
Ian Stannard and Edvald Boasson Hagen should be strong enough to keep him protected in the possibly windy stage to Saint-Malo on Tuesday and so Froome will in all likelihood find himself with a much bigger advantage on his rivals when he enjoys his second rest day in a week's time.
With Froome being the superior climber and time triallist, the only chance of unseating the race leader is for the other teams to use their strength in numbers. In that sense, yesterday's stage was clearly a missed opportunity. With a headwind on La Hourquette d'Ancizan, Froome was never likely to crack on that final ascent and he would have been much more vulnerable, had Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff attacked him on the flat stretch between the Col de Menté and the Col de Peyresourde.
That was exactly what they did and at one point, Movistar had Rui Costa and Saxo-Tinkoff Roman Kreuziger in a rather big group that had gone clear from the yellow jersey group. With strong domestiques like Jonathan Castroviejo and Michael Rogers and other GC riders like Jean-Christophe Peraud and Andrew Talansky also present, there would be plenty of interest in keeping that move alive. Froome was clearly doubting what to do, constantly talking to his team car over the radio before ultimately deciding to wait for his teammates to get back on.
That was when Alejandro Valverde decided to race for 2nd instead of trying to defeat Froome. With teammate Ruben Plaza, he attacked and bridged the gap, bringing Froome along in the process. Of course, Saxo-Tinkoff could not allow Froome and Valverde to ride away from Alberto Contador and so the team asked Kreuziger and Rogers to fall back to help close the gap. In the end, it all came to nothing, and Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff chose to ride Porte out of the GC instead of putting Froome under pressure.
Had Froome been forced to wait for his teammate, Kreuziger and Costa - both clear GC threats - could have started the Peyresourde climb with a gap that could very well have reached the 4-minute mark. The Sky domestiques had used up most of their resources to get back in contention, and as Porte was clearly not on a good day, there was a big chance that Froome would have found himself isolated somewhere on the Louron-Azet with two potential GC threats still up the road. That would have forced him to chase for himself, thus making him much more vulnerable to attacks on the final climb.
Of course, Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff can try to create a similar situation in the Alps and especially stage 19 certainly has the terrain to do so. At that point in time, Froome is, however, likely to have increased his GC lead considerably and the number of potential rivals will doubtlessly have decreased. An attack from Costa and Kreuziger may not be as dangerous as it was yesterday, and so his rival teams will have far fewer opportunities. And nobody knows if Porte will be on a similarly bad day later in the race. Yesterday he was but will we see a repeat for the usually very consistent Australian?
Saxo-Tinkoff impress, Contador doesn't
While there is a world of difference between the 2012 and 2013 Sky teams, that is certainly also the case for the Saxo-Tinkoff team. Having been an insignificant element in last year's race, the Danish team has lived up to its strength on paper by emerging as one of the two best squads in this year's race. Nicolas Roche may not have timed his form to perfection but Jesus Hernandez and Michael Rogers are their usual strong selves and Roman Kreuziger appears to be better than ever.
While Froome has made up for his team's woes, Saxo-Tinkoff find themselves in the completely opposite situation. Team captain Alberto Contador did certainly not impress on Saturday and despite a slight improvement on Sunday, he was clearly at his limit when Froome made accelerations to close down Valverde and Rodriguez on the Portet d'Aspet and Menté climbs. Contador is an aggressive rider, always looking for opportunities, and he is likely to have tried an attack on the Hourquette d'Ancizan, had he just the slightest bit of energy left.
The Spaniard has been far off his former level throughout the entire season and it would be naive to suddenly expect a dramatic turnaround in the Alps. His time trial performances have been horrible all season and nothing suggests that he will not be left with a huge deficit at the end of the Mont-Saint-Michel stage.
Instead of counting on the strength of its captain, Saxo-Tinkoff would be much better off if they dared to play on their strength in numbers. Kreuziger was clearly one of the strongest on Saturday and is not unlikely to have matched Valverde, had he not been forced to wait for his captain. Contador did not benefit much from his teammate's assistance on the steep slopes, and so the team would have been much better off, had they allowed Kreuziger to do his own race.
Even if Contador had lost 2 minutes instead of 1.45, his grand tour palmares will always be a concern for Froome. Had Kreuziger limited his losses, the team would have had two genuine GC threats that would have handed them much more fruitful tactical opportunities. The days where Contador can beat Froome by virtue of his own strength appear to be over, and if the team is in the race to win it, they have to broaden out their tactics.
Movistar ligthen up the show
On paper, Movistar always appeared to have the strongest team on paper but the performance during the Pyrenean stages have exceeded even the wildest expectations. Alejandro Valverde may have won the Vuelta in the past but is clearly riding better than ever. Nairo Quintana could very well be the second best climber in the race and Froome's immediate reaction to his four short accelerations yesterday shows that the Brit is very much aware of this. Rui Costa may not be a podium candidate but as long as the Portuguese is well-placed on GC, he offers the team a much broader palette of tactical opportunities. Finally, yesterday's impressive showing from Ruben Plaza, Jonathan Castroviejo and Andrey Amador provide the team with the firepower to drive a break in the mountains, should one of the team leaders go on the offensive.
The strength of the Movistar team may be what could really challenge Froome but the Spanish squad have to decide if they really want to try to win the event. A win in the teams classification is on the cards, stage wins are obvious possibilities in the Alpine stages and Quintana appears to have all but locked up his win in the youth classification - even if Michal Kwiatkowski could temporarily take back the white jersey on Wednesday.
Ominously, the team chose to leave Porte behind instead of putting Froome under pressure yesterday and prior to the race, Valverde made it clear that he was first and foremost in France to finally get into the top 3. The team needs to decide if they want to stick to that pre-race target or go all out in an attempt to crack Froome. They might be the only team with the means to possibly do so.
Disappointment for Rodriguez
Prior to the race, rumours were that Joaquim Rodriguez were riding stronger than ever and that he had timed his condition for his best ever chance of a Tour podium result perfectly. One week into the race, we have realised that those rumours were baseless.
The tiny Spaniard lost time on Saturday and while he did not lose any further ground yesterday, he was clearly struggling both early in the race and on the final climb. Knowing that the final week is the hardest, he may have tried to postpone his peak condition for a few weeks but it would require a dramatic turnaround for him to suddenly re-enter the field of genuine podium contenders. History proves that Rodriguez rarely gets better as a three-week race goes on -if anything the tendency is the opposite - and it would be unreasonable to suggest that it should be anything different this time around.
At the same time, his usually strong team has been far from its best with Daniel Moreno, Eduard Vorganov, Alberto Losada and Yury Trofimov all struggling in the Pyrenees. It may be time for the Katusha team to chance its pre-race aim and start targeting stage wins instead of solely backing their leader.
Evans bounces back
When Cadel Evans was sent out the back of the ever-dwindling group of favourites on the road to Ax-3-Domaines, it appeared to be the definitive end to the Australian's GC hopes. Once again, discussions over the impossible Giro-Tour double started to surface and when the veteran was left behind early in stage 9, it seemed to be just another of those years where nothing would go right for the Australian at the Tour.
Having regained contact with the peloton on the flat stretch between the Menté and the Peyresourde climbs, his legs suddenly started to come around as the number of remaining climbs tickled down. When Nairo Quintana attacked repeatedly on the day's final mountain, Evans was one of only a select few to never lose any ground to Froome, the others being Contador, Schleck and Valverde.
After all, it may not be another off-year for Evans and there is certainly some reason to stay optimistic in the BMC team. With Van Garderen being left far behind - in our opinion not a big surprise - the question of team leadership has been settled and Evans will enjoy the full support from his team.
The usually consistent Australian is suddenly one of the most unpredictable elements in the race, and while a podium spot may be beyond his reach, he could very well be in the running for a top-5 result. He may pay the price for his Giro participation later in the race but at this moment in time, it is too early to rule out the classy Australian. We will get the next decisive gauge of his real level at the end of Wednesday's time trial.
Look out for Schleck in the Alps
It may have been a year of misery for Andy Schleck but the first part of the Tour has shown that his improved performance in the Tour de Suisse were not without a reason. He may not be back at his 2009-2011 level just yet but that may still come later in the race.
Few riders have a better recovery than Schleck who always gets better and better as a grand tour goes on and that was already evident yesterday. Having struggled a bit with the explosive pace on the climb to Ax-3-Domaines the previous day, he was apparently at ease when he followed Chris Froome on the final climb, later revealing to Cyclingnews that he was never even close to losing contact.
While other riders are likely to falter as the race goes on, Schleck's point of departure and grand tour history should make it a given fact that the Luxembourger will only improve from now on. With an uncertain future for himself and his brother, he should have plenty of motivation to prove that he is still a future winner candidate and his determined and focused attitude has done little to suggest anything else.
We wouldn't be surprised if he emerges as one of the three best climbers in the Alps and there is plenty of ground to be made up during the very hard last week. Before he gets to the decisive climbs, he can, however, expect to suffer a huge time loss in the Mont-Saint-Michel time trial and he has to decide whether he will go all out for a big stage win or putting all his hopes on a possible top 5 or maybe even podium result on GC.
French failure
According to the French themselves, 2013 was destined to be the year where the host country finally bounced back from its lacklustre recent history and put Thibaut Pinot and Pierre Rolland into the real GC mix. It only took two mountains and a descent to leave those hopes in tatters and it is now left to the strong veteran Jean-Christophe Peraud - who continues his upwards trajectory despite his age - to defend the country's GC ambitions.
Rolland paid the price for his very aggressive riding and while his many offensives were rewarded with stage wins and time gains in both 2011 and 2012, the outcome has been the opposite this time around. He appears to be riding strongly and was likely to still have been in top 10 contention, had he not attacked early on the Port de Pailheres. His racing style is refreshing but if he is to ever play for the Tour podium, he has to change his mindset and gauge his use of energy much more carefully. However, his Tour is far from over and he now stands out as the clear favourite to succeed teammate Voeckler as the polka-dot jersey winner while a third stage win in the Alps could also be on the cards - targets which are also much more in line with his racing style.
While Rolland has had few problems handling the burden of expectations from the French public, the early events in the Tour have revealed that Pinot's mind is of a much more fragile nature. Having survived the feared battle for positions during the opening week - in which he certainly doesn't excel - Pinot appeared to climbing comfortably near the front of the peloton on the Pailheres climb on Saturday.
However, a bad crash on a descent during his time as a junior once again proved costly. As it was the case in the Tour de Suisse queen stage, his fear for high speed saw him lose ground to the race favourites on the subsequent descent. Having seen his dreams of a top 10 result shattered by the events, he did little to hide that he had almost no motivation to continue in the race.
He tried to bounce back with an attack yesterday but as he was unable to gain any ground in the frantic first part of the race, he cracked completely and lost more than 20 minutes. Work on his descending skills is certainly on the cards but if Pinot is ever to fulfil the high expectations, it may be the psychological side of things that needs the most attention.
Intelligent and impressive Tourminator
A stage 1 crash and injuries may have robbed Peter Sagan of his yellow jersey ambitions and his two best stage win opportunities in stages 2 and 3 but the Slovakian has left the disappointment behind him to show just how classy a bike rider he is. As he is unable to match Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel and Marcel Kittel in the pure sprints, it suddenly appeared to be a realistic scenario that he would leave the race with no stage wins.
With his future possibilities looking bleak, he took the bulls by the horn and invented something with a gutsy strategy in the stage to Albi. With a resurgent Cannondale team to support him, he took up the daunting task of trying to keep the combined strength of the Argos-Shimano, Omega Pharma-Quick Step and Lotto-Belisol teams at bay over a 113km stretch. The green team got its just reward for its courage and can now tick off the stage win box to concentrate on the points competition
Sagan has, however, all but locked up the win in that classification. Besides benefitting from his team's display of force on Friday, he has raced extremely intelligently in the sprints. Knowing that he has little chance of winning the pure sprints, he has used his formidable ability in the battle for position to get into the wheel of the leading sprinters and used their slipstream to get into the top 3.
Intelligence and maturity have seen him build up a massive 93-point lead and he can now allow himself to take a few more risks by going for the win in the many sprints during the coming week. And with a seemingly unassailable lead in the points classification, he will now also be allowed more freedom by the sprint teams to go on the attack in the more selective stages. Look out for the Slovakian in the stage to Gap where he will be keen to prove that he is so much more than just a sprinter.
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