Vincenzo Nibali appeared to have almost locked up his second grand tour win of the season but a surprising chink in his seemingly invincible armour was revealed in yesterday's gentle Pyrenean stage. Was it a bad day? Or is it a sign that the Giro champion is starting to fade towards the end of his second grand tour? CyclingQuotes takes a look back at the second week as we ask ourselves what we have learnt from the middle part of the race.

When Vincenzo Nibali easily responded to Chris Horner's every acceleration on the way up the Collada de la Gallina, apparently wondering whether his main rival didn't have more than that, the Italian seemed to have the Vuelta a Espana locked in the same firm grip that had characterized the Giro d'Italia earlier this year. With no reason to attack, the Astana leader made his strength clear by accelerating slightly away from the American inside the final few hundred metres to exert his dominance on the race with a minimal level of energy expenditure.

At that point, his rivals were clinging to the hope of the race leader having one of his infamous bad days that have characterized many of his grand tour appearances. Having crushed his opponents in the Giro d'Italia with a highly regular performance, Nibali had, however, indicated that he had matured past the point where grand tours are lost due to a jour sans.

Most were surprised when Nibali suddenly had difficulty closing a small gap to Horner, Nicolas Roche and Domenico Pozzovivo in yesterday's stage. Having briefly made it across, the Italian succumbed when Horner kept the pace high and was since distanced by several riders while he zigzagged his way to the top. Such was the surprise that it even took some time for Horner to realize what was about to happen while Alejandro Valverde patiently stayed on Nibali's wheel until finally recognizing that the race leader was fading.

Nibali will hope that his performance was just one of his trademark bad days. History proves that those often come at the end of a series of hard mountain stages. That's what happened on Monte Zoncolan and Passo del Tonale in the 2010 Giro d'Italia, on Alto del Cotobello in the 2010 Vuelta a Espana, on the roads to Sestriere in the 2011 Giro d'Italia and on the roads to Peyragudes in the 2012 Tour de France. On the other hand, the bad weather meant that Nibali was never challenged by more than two consecutive uphill finishes in this year's Giro.

Nibali will hope that yesterday's showing was the result of the bad day and that he will find back to his regularity in the Asturian mountains. However, it will be a cause for concern that the single most crucial climb of the entire race, Alto del Angliru, comes as the final of three consecutive summit finishes. If Nibali is unable to overcome his tendency to fade at the end of a block of mountain stages, Angliru could be the scene of a change in leadership on the penultimate day of racing.

However, it may be of even more concern that yesterday's performance may have been a result of more than just a bad day. Already on the previous stage, the race leader appeared to be struggling during one of Joaquim Rodriguez' repeated accelerations. Having drifted slightly backwards, he managed to stay with the main group of favourites without his rivals noticing his difficulty and he finished safely in the same time as his nearest competitors. Two below-par performances may, however, be a sign that fatigue has started to set in at the end of a long season that has included overall wins in the Tirreno-Adriatico, Giro del Trentino and Giro d'Italia.

On the other hand, Nibali knows that the terrain of the final week suits him better. The Pena Cabarga may be a bit short to his liking but the regular, steep gradients are much more suited to his style of racing than yesterday's uneven, gentle climb that finished with a more difficult ramp to the finish. He may be unable to keep up with Rodriguez in a finish that suits the Spaniard perfectly but his real concern remains Horner who is of a less explosive nature. Friday's Alto del Naranco should have less of an impact on the GC while Saturday's long, steep climb up Angliru suits him well. Nibali remains the favourite to win the race but it may have been costly that yesterday's surprising chink in his armour made his rivals change their despondent mood.

Horner standing firm

When Chris Horner crushed the opposition on the brutally steep Alto de Hazallanas, the cycling world was left astonished by the performance of the 41-year-old. He did not only ride away from his rivals, he single-handedly managed to extend his advantage almost all the way to the line.

However, the general assessment was that the veteran was going to fade later in the race. At 41 and with a 9th place being his best-ever grand tour performance, the American wasn't expected to recover as well as the younger, more established grand tour contenders.

At the end of the Pyrenean triptych, those assessments have until now been wrong. On the Collada de la Gallida, the temporary climbing hierarchy was firmly confirmed and it still had Nibali and Horner on the top. On Sunday, the pattern appeared to be repeated when Horner was the only one able to match Nibali when the race leader briefly accelerated off the front. And yesterday it was Horner's fierce pursuit of Rodriguez - in a strong headwind - that broke Nibali.

At the end of yesterday's stage, signs were that Horner Is maybe not as strong as he had been earlier in the race. However, he almost matched Rodriguez and Valverde on a climb that suited the Spanish duo much better than the veteran American who even rode the final two kilometres in the headwind while the Spaniards both took shelter behind Vladimir Gusev and Horner respectively. Having originally claimed to be able to win the race, he appeared to be slightly despondent at the end of Saturday's stage. Yesterday's result was a great confidence boost. If Nibali continues his fading trend, nothing suggests that Horner won't be the man to capitalize the most.

Spaniards looking to capitalize

Prior to the race, it was heavily debated whether Joaquim Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde would be able to win the Vuelta on the back of strong showings in the Tour de France. After all, only Joseba Beloki and Carlos Sastre had finished on the podium in both grand tours during the first part of this millennium and last year not even Chris Froome was able to accomplish the feat.

At the end of the first two weeks, it is hard to deny that they are paying a price for a long season. Evidently, they are not at their Tour de France level and Rodriguez clearly lacks his trademark punch that allows him to make the differences.

The logical expectation would be that they would start to fade towards the end of the race. Surprisingly, the trend appears to be the exact opposite. Joaquim Rodriguez was clearly shy of his best condition when he was unable to make his usual impression on the steep ramp in Valdepenas de Jaen and on the first mountain stages, he had to be content with just staying on the wheels.

That has all changed in the Pyrenees. On Sunday, he had the power to launch numerous strong - albeit unsuccessful - attacks and on Monday, he had reached a level where he was even able to make a difference. That's an encouraging sign for the Katusha leader who at one point appeared as though he might have to leave the race empty-handed. The final week suits him perfectly with the Pena Cabarga offering him a genuine opportunity to take his stage win while the steep gradients on the Angliru suit him similarly well. He may be a bit too far back to win the race but Rodriguez could be back to his dominant self in the final week.

Earlier in his career, Valverde was infamously known for his bad days in grand tours. Towards the end of his career, he is now a personification of consistency. While Rodriguez' has performed highly irregularly in this year's grand tours, Valverde has kept a high level throughout both races. Not even his suffering in the cold on Saturday put him out of GC contention and he managed to recover sufficiently to save his podium position. It's testament to his recovery ability that he hasn't finished outside the top 5 of his home grand tour since he first made his name known as a grand tour contender in 2013.

It is that consistency that may allow him to win his second grand tour. While Nibali and Horner may be slowing down, nothing suggests that Valverde is going to fade. If the two best climbers in the race fail to keep up the pace in the final week, Valverde's consistency may put him back on the top of a grand tour podium.

The race of the breakaways

Yesterday, Thibaut Pinot publicly vented his frustration over the lack of control from the favourites' teams. For the third day in a row, a summit finish in the Pyrenees had been won by an early escapee and Pinot was angered that the major teams hadn't exerted their control on the race.

With just 5 stages remaining, we find ourselves in the unusual situation that none of the race favouites have won a stage. Of the top 5 riders on GC, only Horner has raised his arms in celebration and his wins were taken before he had earned himself the status as potential winner of the race. It's not completely unheard of - just recall how escapees took the spoils on all major mountain stages of last year's Tour de France - but it's in sharp contrast to last year's race when the riders on the final podium won 6 stages between them.

A number of reasons add up to put us in this situation. Astana have their sights set on the overall win and Nibali is mostly concerned with winning the race overall while also saving as much energy as possible for the world championships. Horner already has two stage wins in his pocket and can allow himself to fully concentrate on the GC battle.

The big losers have been Movistar. Several stages have been perfectly suited to Alejandro Valverde but so far, the team has been unable to keep things together for a final sprint. That's what happened on stages 2 and 3 and that's what happened yesterday when the team had originally intended to set up their captain for the win. On paper one of the strongest teams, the squad has seen a number of its key riders fail and the team's stage winning streak in the grand tours may be broken at the end of this year's Vuelta.

The trend of successful breakaways should be brought to an end in the final week. With Rodriguez having received a confidence boost, he will do his utmost to win on Pena Cabarga. The Angliru is such a prestigious mountain that several teams will combine forces to bring things back together for the final climb and the gradients are so steep that there will be no surprise breakaway in an uncontrollable finale. We should at least see a race favourite win the biggest stage of them all.

French domination

French cycling has endured a lacklustre time where the French cyclists referred to "cyclisme a deux vitesses" as the reason for their lack of success on the biggest scene. Having usually performed well in the youth ranks, the Frenchmen failed to make the transition to the elite ranks with similar success.

That unfortunate trend has now changed. Pierre Rolland started the revival when he won the white jersey and the stage to Alpe d'Huez in the 2011 Tour de France and since then French talents have blossomed in the three-week races. Thibaut Pinot and Rolland both  won stages and finished in the top 10 of last year's Tour de France and this year it was young Romain Bardet who showed his talents in the world's biggest race.

It is unusual for the Frenchmen to shine in the Giro and the Vuelta but their talents is now so multi faceted that they can also dominate on foreign soil. Thibaut Pinot has bounced back from a disastrous performance in the Tour where he climbed splendidly until a bad descent broke his morale. He is currently sitting in 7th overall but appears only to be surpassed by Nibali, Horner, Rodriguez and Valverde when it comes to climbing. Angliru suits him perfectly and it would be no surprise if he takes another step forward by finishing in the top 5 of a grand tour.

Alexandre Geniez has long been regarded as big climbing talent but failed to produce the expected result during his first years as a professional, feeling that his opportunities were too constrained on the sprint-focused Argos-Shimano. Having left the Dutch team to join the talent school at FDJ, he has started to shine. He overcame a bad start to the season to ride well in the Dauphiné and the Tour but he standout performance was delivered when he won Sunday's queen stage which even finished in his native France. He made it into a formidable breakaway containing some of the best climbers in the world but none of them could match his speed on the final three climbs of the day. He was unfortunate to lose his GC options when he had to give his bike to Pinot on the Mirador del Ezaro on stage 4 but yesterday's win allowed him to finally reveal his true potential.

However, the real breakthrough performance has been delivered by young Warren Barguil who shows that it is indeed possible to ride well in the mountains while wearing Argos-Shimano colours. On the back of his Tour de l'Avenir win, expectations were big but back problems hampered the first part of his season. That allowed him to enter his maiden grand tour almost unnoticed but by now, the world knows all about Warren Barguil. His GC campaign came to a halt when he crashed in the neutral zone on stage 10 but that may have been a blessing in disguise. With two stage wins on some of the harder stages, he has not only showed great climbing strength, what's really amazing is his tactical astuteness. In his first professional season, he has handled the two tricky finales with far more calmness than most seasoned veterans. There's much more to come from Warren Barguil and French cycling in the future.

The Cancellara dilemma

For many riders, the Vuelta is mainly preparation for the world championships. Three potential world champions are racing in Spain with a sole focus on the Florence event. While Philippe Gilbert and Tony Martin have now left the race reassured of their condition, the race has put Fabian Cancellara in huge doubt.

Already at the team presentation, it was evident that Spartacus was extremely well-prepared. Having clearly lost plenty of weight, he has put all his focus on shining on the hilly course in Florence later this month. While many had deemed the course too tough for the Swiss, they have had to reassess the situation after having witnessed his splendid climbing. On stage 10, he whittled the peloton down to less than 50 riders on one of the hardest climbs of the entire race and on Sunday's queen stage, he was still in the group of favourites when it contained less than 30 riders.

Based on this, it is tempting to stick to his original plan of fully focusing on his life-long dream of winning the road race. When he beat Tony Martin convincingly in the race's only time trial, doubts may, however,  have started to enter his mind. He already has four world time trial championships on his palmares but the prospect of reclaiming his crown in a season in which Martin has been almost unbeatable in time trials must be tempting.

The course in Florence is much flatter than the one used in the Vuelta and thus suits Martin better. Cancellara has put most focus on his climbing and that may have cost him some power for this type of course. Martin remains the favourite but Cancellara is still undecided. At the same time, Horner's exceptional climbing may now force him to ride the Vuelta all the way to the end even if that wasn't the original plan. Usually, good results are a mere pleasure but for Cancellara they have left him in the dark.