The riders will get no time to rest after yesterday's drama in the mountains as they face their second consecutive day in the high altitude in today's 11th stage. At a first glance the mountaintop finish to Vajont promises to be another spectacular battle between the race favourites but a closer look at the final climb to Vajont shows that this is probably not a day to make a real difference. Instead, the key protagonists will probably keep their powder dry for later while the opportunists relish their chances to go on the hunt for a stage win. Starting at 14.15 you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
Another difficult stage awaits the riders but the climbing will be much more gentle and not nearly as hard in what will be the second consecutive summit finish. From the start in Tarvisio the riders follow almost flat, slightly rolling roads for 88,5km before they reach Ovaro. The city is famous as the starting point of the excessively steep Monte Zoncolan climb but instead of tackling the infamous slopes the riders start the category 2 climb Sella Ciampigotto (29,5km, 4,3%, max. 10%).
At the top the riders take on a long descent which is followed by some rolling terrain before they start the day's final ascent, the category 2 climb to the finish in Vajont (7,6km, 4,9%, max. 9%). The hill is not a hard one and it is highly unlikely that the stage will produce any difference between the biggest favourites.
It is not completely out of the question that we will see some action from the race favourites on the slopes and the day could especially lend its hand to an attack from some of the climbers who have lost some time in the GC like Robert Kiserlovski, Franco Pellizotti, Damiano Caruso, Carlos Betancur or maybe even Sergio Henao. With a constant gradient of 5-6% it is, however, very unlikely to see any difference between the big favourites but they will have to stay careful not get surprised - especially at the flamme rouge where the roads get a little steeper.
With the favourites all keen to get an easier day, the buzz word for today will undoubtedly be "breakaway" and with very few exceptions participation in the day's early move will be part of the teams' pre-race tactics. Expect a furious start to the stage as no one really wants to miss this one and so we will see many promising escapes be brought back because an ambitious team has missed out.
Once again the start of the stage is flat - it is even slightly downhill - and this makes it much harder to predict the composition of the breakaway as luck is a key factor in such an "easy" start. However, it does not make sense for a sprinter or rouleur to enter today's escape as the finish will only see a climber come out victorious.
A number of interesting names spring to mind when discussing potential winners from a breakaway. Eros Capecchi (Movistar) was hampered by allergy in the opening part of the race and said that he would not target the spring races in the future as his health made him unable to compete with the best. However, he seems to have recovered in recent days and yesterday he was one of only a select few to crest the summit of the first climb in the 20-rider group. Being more than 1 hour behind Nibali in the GC he is no danger to the GC riders and if he is in the move, he has the climbing legs to finish it off. He is even really fast in an uphill sprint, should he have some companions at the line. His Movistar team has a number of strong climbers and even though they also hope to see Benat Intxausti finish in the overall top 10, there major target remains another stage win to add to the one Alex Dowsett took in the time trial. Hence, it would be a surprise to see the Spanish team miss today's action.
If Capecchi fails, Juan Jose Cobo could be another option. The 2011 winner was highly ambitious at the start of this year's Giro but a crash in the team time trial made him forget all about his GC hopes. His performance in the time trial suggests that his was right when he claimed to be in really good condition, and he seems to have recovered from his numerous tumbles. He is not good at picking the right moves but if he happens to be in right place at the right moment, he could very well ride away with the win. The same goes for Jose Herrada who is the third very good Movistar bet in today's stage.
As usual it would be a mistake to look past Stefano Pirazzi in a stage like this one and there is no doubt that the Bardiani will be very aggressive in the early action. There is not an awful lot of points up for grabs in today's stage but with two easier days coming up, he can allow himself to spend some energy on the roads to Vajont. He will be on a dual mission to both collect KOM points and win the stage and as he is one of the strongest climbers in the race, he has the strength to finish it off. However, his position in the mountains classification could hamper his chances as some teams may be reluctant to see him get up the roads. At least it would be very unlikely to see Pirazzi in a move without any riders from Colombia - and even without Robinson Chalapud. The South American team has certainly marked this stage out and they are eager to bounce back from a bad day yesterday. Expect to see either Chalapud, Darwin Atapuma, Fabio Duarte or Jarlinson Pantano - if he has recovered from his illness - in today's move.
Vini Fantini is a sure bet to be part of today's action as the team's best chance to take a stage win are on a day like today. And they have a number of strong candidates to come out triumphant. The most obvious one is of course Danilo Di Luca who once again showed his strength in yesterday's mountain stage. He is still not able to climb with the best as he was earlier in his career but he is not far behind. If he is in the day's breakaway, he will be very difficult to beat as the final climb and its modest gradient suits him perfectly. He is very fast in an uphill sprint and could allow himself to ride the final kilometres a little bit conservative. Other candidates from the team could be Matteo Rabottini, Alessandro Proni and Stefano Garzelli even though the latter may very well save his strength for one big farewell attack in one of the big mountain stages.
Another two riders deserved to be mentioned. One of those is Pieter Weening who started this race with the objective of going for a stage win in a stage like today's. His good start to the race suddenly saw him shift his focus towards the GC but he fell out on contention in the rain in Florence. He is now back to his original objective and his good condition makes him a very dangerous man who could very well ride away from his companions on the last climb of the day.
The final rider is Miguel Angel Rubiano. We have marked the 2012 stage winner out on numerous occasions in our previews but until now he has not hit the right move. The Androni team has been on the offensive almost every day and it will be a huge surprise if that is not the case today. Next to Pellizotti and the young Rosa, Rubiano is their strongest climber and he is also very fast in an uphill sprint. He would be a good bet to take the win if he manages to make the first selection.
Other candidates include Tom Danielson, Peter Stetina, Hubert Dupont, Sylvain Georges, Diego Rosa, Francesco Bongiorno, Stefano Locatelli, Juan Manuel Garate, Steve Morabito, Ivan Santaromita, Cayetano Sarmiento, Egoi Martinez, Gorka Verduo, Franci Mourey, Giampaolo Caruso, Petr Ignatenko, Kristijan Durasek, Jose Serpa, Simone Stortoni, Gianluca Brambilla, Serge Pauwels, Tiago Machado, Evgeny Petrov and Rafael Valls who all have the uphill strength to come out victorious on a day like today.
It is hard to see any team bring it all back together and the break will most probably make it. Astana will be happy to see the escapees take away the bonus seconds as Cadel Evans will very likely take some of those if the favourites have to sprint it out in a select group. It would even be a very good scenario for him if he could give away the leader's jersey for some days.
The most likely team to kick into action is Vini Fantini as both Di Luca and Mauro Santambrogio are among the favourites to win if the GC riders have to battle it out on the moderate slopes. If the yellow-clad team misses the move, they could be the one to bring it all back together.
As said Evans would be another obvious favourite to take the win if the break is caught but it is highly unlikely that he will ask his BMC team to chase today. Furthermore, the team mostly consists of strong rouleurs and despite the presence of Morabito and Santaromita the American squad is probably not strong enough to take the responsibility.
The final team that could maybe spell the end of the breakaway's chances is Sky. The British team were successful in moving Rigoberto Uran into contention and they were highly encouraged to see Nibali get isolated very early in the race. They could try a similar tactic today to force Nibali to chase by himself in the final part of the stage but as it will be very difficult to drop riders like Tanel Kangert and Valerio Agnoli in a stage like today's, we will probably see the British powerhouse keep their powder dry for later in the race.
Starting at 14.15 you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Eros Capecchi, Danilo Di Luca, Stefano Pirazzi
Outsiders: Miguel Angel Rubiano, Pieter Weening, Juan Jose Cobo
David MELVILLE 37 years | today |
Po Sen CHIU 38 years | today |
Alfredo RIOS 40 years | today |
Chi Yin LEUNG 43 years | today |
Samuel LEROUX 30 years | today |
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