On Altopiano del Montadio we got a small insight into who's hot and who's not in this year's Giro. Since then the GC rivals have kept their powder dry as they have tried to save as much energy as possible through Thursday's rain and cold and in Friday's crosswinds. Now it's time to come out swinging again as there is nowhere to hide on the race's steepest finishing climb, the Jafferau. We will be much wiser at the end of two consecutive days in the Alps and starting at 14.15 you can follow all the action from the first of those on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
After two consecutive days for the sprinters it is time for two days in the Alps over the weekend as the second week of racing comes to a dramatic end and signals the start of a very hard final part of the race. The 168km stage starts in the Po Valley in Cervere where Mark Cavendish won a stage last year and heads in a northeastern direction towards the Alps. The first 70,7km in the valley are almost completely flat but the road starts to rise gently as the riders approach the outskirts of the mountain range.
After 87,8km the climbing gets more serious and the road points upwards for another 37,5km before the peloton reaches the top of the category 2 climb to Sestriere. Officially the climb is 16,3km long with an average gradient of 3,8% and a maximum of 9% and it is mostly a long gradual climb to tire out the riders legs as it does not have any really steep parts. From the top 21,4km of descending follow before 12,7km of gently rising roads will lead all the way to the bottom of the day's final climb. The category 1 Jafferau climb (7,3km, 9,0%, max. 14%) is not very long but it is a regular, steep ascent with the potential to do some serious damage and none of the other finishing climbs in this year's Giro has as high an average gradient as this one. The final 500 meters even have a gradient of 11,6%. There is no doubt that we will see attacks from the favourites as the stage presents a perfect opportunity to take out time on some of the key rivals.
Much has been said about the horrific weather in this year's Giro and for a long time both of the weekend's stages in the Alps have been threatened by snow. At the time of writing tomorrow's hugely anticipated Galibier stage seems to be in serious doubt but fortunately the riders should be able to ride today's stage without any course alterations.
The GC riders have had a number of quieter days but while the last three stages have not been opportunities to win the Giro, they had the potential to crush any ambitions of overall victory. While the routes have appeared to be easy in the puclic's eyes, they have certainly not been easy days for the peloton and as we approach the end of the second week of racing, we could very well see another hierarchy among the GC candidates than what emerged at the top of Altopiano del Montasio on Tuesday.
On paper the stage may look similar to Tuesday's difficult route with a long flat opening part and then two big climbs in the final. However, there is an enormous difference between the two routes. While Tuesday's route had the most difficult climb located early in the race while the final one was more of a long, gradual rise with only one short, very steep section followed by a more moderate finish, it appears to be the opposite today. The climb to Sestriere is an easy one and we will see a much larger group crest the summit than the very select few that passed the top of the Passo Cason di Lanza on Tuesday. Hence, the riders will have much fresher legs when they hit the bottom of the Jafferau ascent.
However, the final climb is much tougher than the Altopiano del Motasio. On Tuesday the difference had to be made on the short steep section and there was time to recover lost time on the flatter section towards the top. The Jafferau is steep all the way from the bottom to the top and while it lacks the extreme steepness of the hardest part of the Altopiano del Montasio, there is no time to recover. Instead, it will be very important to gauge your effort. Going too far into the red zone could see any ambitious contender lose too much time.
The steepness of the climb makes it one for the pure climbers and so it could very well be one for the Ag2r duo of Carlos Betancur and Domenico Pozzovivo. Both are a little down on GC and could get the freedom to move up the road while the major contenders look at each other and only Rafal Majka will have a real interest in chasing down the former to protect his white jersey.
On Tuesday Pozzovivo was the strongest on the steepest section and even Vincenzo Nibali was unable to stay in his wheel when he put down the hammer. He has always found it difficult to gauge his effort and he has a tendency to fade towards the top of the climbs. That was certainly also the case on Tuesday but on that occasion he was also hampered by the lack of steepness which was a clear disadvantage for the tiny Italian. If he manages to time his acceleration to perfection, he should be the favourite to win today's stage.
The strategy of the Ag2r team will probably be the same as it was on Tuesday. Pozzovivo will make the first attack while Betancur who is much more explosive will stay put behind the favourites and strike if his Italian teammate was brought back. On Tuesday he seemed to stay in the wheel of Nibali at apparent ease before he soloed off the front inside the final two kilometres of the race. However, this is only his second grand tour and his first one as a GC contender. Having been strong all the way since the Vuelta al Pais Vasco, there is a chance that he may fade towards the end of the race. Until now, there have been no signs of him slowing down at all and it is unlikely to happen today. If he is still at his best, the Ag2r team has a very good chance of gaining some positive attention after a week where they have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons.
Vincenzo Nibali looked very strong on the Altopiano del Montasio and was certainly the strongest of the candidates for the overall win. Despite being dropped by Pozzovivo, his hard tempo managed to drop Cadel Evans on the steepest part and his acceleration near the top showed that he had plenty of resources left. The regular, steep climb at the end of the stage should suit him well and he is very likely to put further time into Evans today.
However, everybody is waiting for the bad day that the Italian usually has and no one knows when - and if - we will see the Italian struggle. However, the tendency is that it comes after a number of consecutive days in the mountains and so it is unlikely that we will see the race leader under pressure today. He could very well end up winning the stage but as he will mainly concentrate on Evans, Scarponi and Uran, he could be forced to let some of the less dangerous riders go up the road.
If Evans is to win the Giro, he will have to do it on consistency and fighting spirit. He is usually good on steep sections and the final climb should suit him well. However, he seems to be somewhat behind Nibali as was evidenced on the hardest part of Altopiano del Montasio. For the Australian, today will most probably be a case of damage control while he searches for any sign of weaknesses from Nibali later in the race.
Today will also be our first possibility to see Rigoberto Uran battle it out with the race favourites. On Tuesday he was allowed to go up the road by Nibali but even though he lost a little time on the steepest section, it was testament to his strength that he managed to finish no less than 31 seconds ahead of the group of favourites. His good time trial performance is a further indication of his good form and the final climb should suit him well. Despite his 7th place last year, he has, however, never been able to mix it up with the best in a grand tour and today will show whether he has improved enough over to last year to finally seriously battle for the win.
It could be another Sky rider that takes the headlines today. Sergio Henao showed formidable condition in the early part of the race but struggled on Tuesday and lost a chunk of time. This could allow him the freedom to go up the road and it is likely that Sky will use a similar tactic, using Henao to put Astana under pressure. A lot of riders struggle the day after a rest day and that could be the explanation for Henao's poor showing on Tuesday. Furthermore, he is one of the best in the world on steep sections and if he is back to his best, he could end up riding away with the stage win.
It is time for revenge for the Lampre duo of Michele Scarponi and Przemyslaw Niemiec. The latter appeared to very strong on Tuesday and followed the best at apparent ease before he fell back to assist his struggling captain. The eagle of Filottrano was a surprise loser in the first mountains battle after his strong time trial and comments from Nibali had marked him out as maybe the best climber in the race.
The Italian has written his loss down to just a case of a bad day and has felt much stronger since. At the same Nibali continues to praise the strength of the Lampre leader. If he wants to remain a serious candidate for the overall win, he will, however, have to claw back time today.
The final candidates for the stage win are Robert Kiserlovski, Mauro Santambrogio and Rafal Majka. All were among the strongest on Tuesday and especially Kiserlovski could be allowed to go up the road. Majka's battle for the white jersey will probably see him closely marked by Betancur while Santambrogio struggled a little bit on the steepest part on Tuesday. He bounced back strongly on the flatter part near the top and used his good sprint to finish 4th. On today's climb, it will, however, completely be decided by the climbing legs.
There is of course also a chance that a breakaway will go all the way to the line. Once again Nibali will probably be happy to see early escapees swallow up the bonus seconds but a number of other teams will be happy to see the 20 second bonus come into play as they are far behind the Italian GC leader. Ag2r really hopes to contest the stage win and the same goes for Scarponi and Santambrogio. Hence, Ag2r, Lampre and Vini Fantini could all collaborate to bring back the day's early break.
However, the most likely team to spell the ending of the break's chances is - as always - Sky. After the loss of Bradley Wiggins, it is probably important for the British squad to prove that they are still very much part of the race and that they have confidence in their new leader. They have - by far - the strongest team in the race and their display of strength on Tuesday was simply amazing. Uran will be another one to target the bonus seconds and he would like to see Nibali isolated before he sends Henao up the roads. Expect Sky to hit the front somewhere up the climb to Sestriere.
As always the long, flat start makes it difficult to predict the composition of the early break but a number of names spring to mind. Stefano Garzelli has certainly his mind focused on a long farewell escape in one of the mountain stages and today could present the first opportunity. Danilo Di Luca and Stefano Pirazzi have been some of the most aggressive in the race so far and it is also time for Colombia to show their hands in the high mountains. Expect to see either Fabio Duarte, Robinson Chalapud, Jarlinson Pantano or even Darwin Atapuma in the day's early move.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Domenico Pozzovivo, Carlos Betancur, Vincenzo Nibali
Outsiders: Rigoberto Uran, Michele Scarponi, Sergio Henao
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