Most cycling fans had a fear when it rumours circulated that today's stage to the top of the mighty Col du Galibier - held to commemorate the exploits of Marco Pantini in the 1998 Tour de France - was about to be entirely cancelled. A last minute change of decision by the Valloire Prefecture, however, saved the stage with only the final 4,25km to the top of the Galibier taken out of the course. Prior to the Giro this huge stage in the Alps was singled out as one of the two most important mountain stages in the entire race - the other being next Saturday's huge stage finishing at the top of the Tre Cime Di Lavaredo - and we can expect one of the greatest battles of the season later in the afternoon. Starting at 12.45 you can follow the stage in its entirety on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The second week of racing comes to a close in a grandiose manner as the short 144,75km stage is one of the most anticipated of the entire race. Some days before the official route presentation RCS made public that the 2013 Giro would include a stage to the top of the famous French giant Col du Galibier to commemorate Marco Pantani's exploits on the climb during the Tour de France 15 years ago. That stage will be held a week before the finish of the race and will have the potential to have a major impact on the final GC.
The opening 32,9km of the stage are all downhill but from then on the climbing gets brutal as the riders hit the bottom of the category 1 Col du Mont Cenis (25,7km, 6,2%, max. 10%). The ascent takes the riders up to more than 2000m of altitude and is a regular one with no really steep parts but the length of the ascent will certainly do its fair share of damage on the riders' legs. From the top 56,4km of a mostly downhill roads await the riders before they start the day's crucial challenge with 29,75km remaining.
Unlike the 2011 Tour stage ending at the top of the Galibier the riders will climb the mountain from the steep Telegraphe side which makes it much more suitable to attacks. After 11,9km of climbing the riders reach the top of the category 2 Col du Telegraphe (7,2%, max. 11%) after which they will tackle a short 4,85km descent. From then it is uphill all the way to the finish line near the Marco Pantani monument 4,25km from the top of the Col du Galibier (13,85km, max. 11%) 2301m above sea level and the final kilometers are the steepest one with an 11% stretch just before the finish. The stage has all the potential to be a short, hectic affair with a major influence on the final outcome of the race.
We did not get to see much of yesterday's drama due to the lack of live images and so it was hard to assess the strength and weaknesses of the favourites. Furthermore, the cold weather had a different impact on the different riders but with another very cold day in store, the riders suffering in such conditions could very well lose further time today.
A breakaway could very well decide today's stage because of a number of different factors that all favour the escape. First of all the road starts to climb shortly after the finish and this means that the strong climbers will just rider away from the peloton with luck playing a much smaller role than on a flat start. The hard stage and the strong riders up ahead mean that it requires a very strong team to control the race and few teams really have the strength to do it.
Only two teams really have the firepower to make it back together. Astana will probably be happy to see a breakaway go up the road and so it will be left to Sky. The British team were eager to show their full commitment to Rigoberto Uran yesterday and so they decide to chase down the day's early break. It is likely that they will choose a similar strategy today in what would also be an attempt to isolate Nibali early in the race. However, Uran may have realized that overall victory could be beyond his reach and so he could start focusing on a podium spot. With Mauro Santambrogio only 1 second behind him in the GC, it could be tempting for the Colombian to let the escapees swallow up the bonus seconds.
Finally, the bad weather also favours the breakaway, especially with a number of treacherous descents on the course. The escapees are probably willing to risk a little more on the race favourites and so it will be hard to take back time in those parts of the course.
It is much easier to predict the composition of the breakaway in a stage with such a hard start and with a lot of KOM points up for grabs there is little doubt that an in-form Stefano Pirazzi will be right in the thick of the action. He is riding strongly right now and showed in the stage to Vajont that he could very well emerge as the strongest climber from an early breakaway.
Vini Fantini have to ambitious veterans and it would be a surprise not to see either Danilo Di Luca or Stefano Garzelli in the move. The first one is riding strongly and has been on the hunt for a stage win on numerous occasions while the latter has gradually built up form for a farewell attack in one of the big mountain stages. What would be more fitting for him than to go on the attack on the stage that is set up to commemorate his former captain Pantani?
Both the Colombia and Movistar teams have plenty of strong climbers and it should be a rather sure bet to see at least one representative from each of those two teams in the early break. The South Americans hope to see Darwin Atapuma bounce back from illness, Fabio Duarte continue his improvement and Robinson Chalapud on the hunt for more KOM points. Movistar have two strong in-form climbers in Eros Capecchi and Jose Herrada, and the bad weather means that the former will not be bothered by his allergy, meaning that he will be able to show off his progressing form.
In addition to the already mentioned riders, Diego Rosa (Androni), Juan Manuel Garate (Blanco), Francis Mourey (FDJ), Tom Danielson (Garmin), Giampaolo Caruso (Katusha), Jose Serpa (Lampre), Francis De Greef (Lotto), Pieter Weening (Orica-GreenEdge), Evgeni Petrov (Saxo-Tinkoff) and Egoi Martinez (Euskaltel) are all going well and could be very good winner candidates if they join the early break.
Regardless of the fate of the early breakaway, there will be a battle between the favourites behind. Vincenzo Nibali proved yesterday that he simple is the strongest rider in the race right now and the only thing that will see him concede time to some of his major rivals is a bad day. However, as we have pointed out numerous times, he usually performs below his usual level on at least one occasion in a grand tour and it always comes after a number of successive days in the mountains. We doubt that he will show any weakness today but he rivals certainly hope that today will be the day where there will be shown any glimpse of weakness.
Mauro Santambrogio proved amazing strength yesterday but today's stage should suit him a little less. The classics specialist has turned into a climber during the off-season and while he now handles high mountains rather well, there is little doubt that yesterday's short, steep climb suited him better than today's longer, more gradual ascent. He struggled on the mountaintop finish to Altopiano del Montasio and it is not unlikely that we will see a similar scenario today.
The Colombians Rigoberto Uran and Carlos Betancur will both relish the opportunity to get into the really high mountains and both should be well-suited to today's stage. Both were unable to follow the acceleration from Nibali yesterday but will hope to bounce back today. Betancur seems to be the stronger of the two right now and if he manages to stay with Nibali all the way to the top, he could very well take the win due to his more explosive finish.
The Ag2r team has another option with Domenico Pozzovivo and there is no doubt that the team would love to take a stage win close to their base in the their French homeland. However, the tiny Italian seems to be a little below his best and it was somewhat of a surprise not to see him perform stronger on yesterday's steep climb that really suited him. He will probably try to get off the front today and could enjoy some freedom due to his GC position but the final climb suits him much less and we could see him make his usual mistake of going too deep too early on the ascent.
Cadel Evans limited his losses on a bad day yesterday and hopes to bounce back today. The harder stage should suit the Australian better than yesterday's but he seems to be just a level below Nibali right now. It could be a good idea for the veteran BMC leader to focus on his podium rivals and then hope that Nibali will have a bad day at some point in the race.
Finally, two riders could take a stage win as they will enjoy some freedom due to a lower GC position. Samuel Sanchez is clearly on the rise and he will only get better from now on. He is usually stringest in the third week of the race and he is better adapted to today's longer, gradual climbs than yesterday's short, explosive one. Furthermore, he usually performs really well in bad weather and could be allowed to slip off the front near the top of the climb. The same goes for Robert Kiserlovski who has emerged as one of the strongest climbers in the race and he will also relish the longer climbs in today's stage.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Carlos Betancur, Vincenzo Nibali, Mauro Santambrogio
Outsiders: Samuel Sanchez, Robert Kiserlovski, Stefano Pirazzi
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