The Giro peloton needed their well-deserved rest yesterday as the very tough third week - rounded off by no less than 3 stages in the Dolomites - starts put with another long stage with two tough climbs on the menu. While the 238km stage is not one for the GC riders, the sprinters will probably find the going a little too tough, and instead the many in-form breakaway artists lick their lips in what is to come late in the afternoon. Starting at 14.15 you can follow all the action from the opening battle in the dramatic final third week of Giro racing on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The final week of the race is extremely hard but the riders start off with a stage which will probably not influence the final GC too much. Nonetheless, 238km with some serious climbing along the way will certainly hurt after more than two weeks of tough racing and the stage may play its role in the accumulation of fatigue in the riders' legs. Having spent the rest day on French soil, the Giro peloton moves back to its home land via the category 1 Col du Montcenis (9,8km, 7,0%, max. 10%) whose top is located at the 64,8km mark. Then a long descent follows before the riders once again hit the Po Valley and head northeast along flat roads just south of the mountains.
After 198,2km the riders cross the finish line but instead of creating a stage for the sprinters, organizers RCS have decided to let the riders tackle a 39,8km loop on the outskirts of the mountains. The circuit is mostly flat but with 17,5km to go the riders hit the top of the category 3 climb Andrate (6,3km, 8,1%, max. 13%) which should be too tough for the sprinters. It is followed by a technical descent while the final 8km are completely flat. While there are some corners and even some pieces of pave inside the city of Ivrea, the run-in mostly follows a long, straight road into a slight headwind.
Even though today's stage contains an Alpine mountain and a very steep climb in the final, the challenges are located too far away from the finish for the GC riders to fight it out, and they have all set their mind on a final battle in the three stages in the Dolomites on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. We will only see some GC action if a rider like Franco Pellizotti, Robert Gesink, Samuel Sanchez and Damiano Caruso who are a little behind decides to try their hand on the final climb or if the likes of Pellizotti, Sanchez and Caruso accelerates on the technical descent. The distance from the bottom of the descent to the finish is probably too much to keep the peloton at bay all the way to the line, and so the GC riders will probably be happy to see other riders contest the stage win.
On paper the stage could appear to be similar to stage 13 into Cherasco which was won in a sprint by Mark Cavendish and so it could be tempting to back the Manxman - who has certainly found his climbing legs - or another sprinter for today's stage. However, there are certain differences which makes it much more unlikely that the sprint teams will be able to bring it all back together.
First of all the start of the stage is very tough and it will be almost impossible for the teams of the fast men to avoid a rather big break going up the road when the strong climbers simply ride away on the Mont-Cenis. Furthermore, a lot of riders have marked this one out as one of maybe only 2 remaining stage win possibilities and so we will see plenty of riders keen to attack. This will make the start very fast and the sprinters will probably get into trouble on the long gradual rise up towards Mont-Cenis. They will certainly be allowed to get back on when the race have settled but from then on they have to organize a chase and prepare themselves for a sprint while it will be very difficult to control a big break of strong riders on a mammoth 238km stage.
Finally, the final climb is much tougher than the three small hills that made for a tough final to stage 13. The ascent has some really steep sections and an average gradient of 8,1% makes it a much harder challenge than the 4,8% Tre Cuni climb on stage 13. Most sprinters will doubt whether they can survive the climb and so teams like Orica-GreenEdge, Cannondale and Omega Pharma-Quick Step will probably keep their powder dry for Wednesday's stage which is much more likely to end in a sprint.
Instead, we should look to the opportunists to find the day's stage winner. A tough start and end to the stage means that only a strong climber will have a real chance to get into today's break and finish it off on the Andrate climb. In the third week of racing, only the freshest riders will be able to challenge for the win and the last two days in the Alps have given some indications of which of the climbers still have something left in the tank.
The first team which will be eager to make an impression today is Movistar. The team has a solid team of climbers all far way down in GC and despite their two stage victories they will be keen to continue their run of success. Giovanni Visconti managed to get back into mix in the KOM competition by winning on the Galibier and if he has recovered from that huge effort, he needs to be on the attack again if he will have any chance to take over the blue jersey before the peloton reaches Brescia.
However, the stage may be even more suited to the duo of Eros Capecchi and Jose Herrada. The former was hampered by allergies in the early part of the race but has bounced back strongly in the wet Northern part of Italy and showed in the Alps that he is one of the best climbers in the race if you exclude the GC riders. He has not launched an offensive yet but the 2011 stage winner will be more than eager to make his presence felt before the finish in Brescia. The final climb and technical descent should suit him well and he is also very fast on the line. Herrada has been much more offensive, launching an attack on the slopes of the Telegraphe on Sunday, and while that move was ultimately unsuccessful, it was just another testament to the climbing form that he has put on show all year. Unlike Capecchi, he lacks the fast sprint but his climbing strength could see him drop all of his companions on the Andrate climb if he is in the day's early break.
Danilo Di Luca is of course one of the heavy favourites for a stage like today's. Few riders have been aggressive than the 2007 race winner but until now he has been unsuccessful. He last launched an attack on the Telegraphe on Sunday and after he was caught he did some huge turns for team captain Mauro Santambrogio inside the final kilometer of the race. He also led the peloton for most of climb up the Jafferau on Saturday which proves that he is getting into some blistering form. He is one of the best climbers in the peloton, a formidable descender and fast on the line. His main problem could very well be the one that took him out of contention in stage 11 to Vajont: his fellow escapees all expect him to win the stage and so he could lose out in a tactical battle. Furthermore, he is also rather close to the top of the GC and that could prevent him from getting into the day's early break.
The Androni team has been one of the most aggressive in this year's race and has been launching attack almost every day. That will certainly also be the case today. While usually strong climbers like Miguel ANgel Rubiano, Jackson Rodriguez and Emanuele Sella all appear to be a little below their best, young Diego Rosa continues to impress. He fell out of GC contention due to the roads to Firenze but has kept getting stronger and stronger ever since. He has launched a number of strong attacks late in the races - often to prepare offensives from team captain Franco Pellizotti - but today could be the day for the Italian talent to try his hand in a long-distance breakaway.
The Colombia team has been very aggressive so far and that will undoubtedly also be the case today. Robinson Chalapud will probably try to get some more KOM points but the Colombian seemed to lack a little bit on the Galibier stage. The hard start could also be a little bit too much for Jarlinson Pantano, and instead we should probably look to the team's two captains to find the South American representative in the day's break. Darwin Atapuma has been a little bit below his best due to illness but Fabio Duarte has been riding himself into some solid form in the past few days and his performance and 5th place on the Galibier marks him out as a danger man. He is fast on the line and could be the man to take the stage win that his Colombian team so dearly wishes.
Had Bradley Wiggins still been in contention for the overall win, the Sky team would without any doubt have preferred to get through today's stage using a little energy as possible. However, much has changed in recent days and while the team is still confident in Rigoberto Uran's podium aspirations, Salvatore Puccio's attack in stage 11 showed that the domestiques enjoy more freedom than they would usually do. The British powerhouse leads the teams classification which could be a minor objective now where the overall victory is probably beyond their reach, and to defend that position they would probably have to put a rider into today's early break. Kanstantsin Siutsou and Dario Cataldo both have the strength to ride off the front on the Mont-Cenis and could get a rare chance to chase some personal success.
Samuel Sanchez struggled on the Altopiano del Montasio and for a moment the ambitious Euskaltel team appeared to be on their heels. However, the captain has bounced back in recent days and while he prepares to launch an offensive in the Dolomites, today could be the day for Egoi Martinez to try his luck. The Spaniard is very good at picking the right breakaways and made a strong attack on the Galibier. It would be no surprise to see the Spaniard enter the day's successful breakaway.
Finally, Stefano Pirazzi is another likely breakaway candidate. The Italian has been in numerous breaks throughout the race and will be eager to pick up some more KOM points on the Mont-Cenis. He has faded towards the end of the stages and that could very well be the case once again which makes him an unlikely stage winner. Nonetheless, he could very well be a key protagonist in the stage once again.
It is not completely out of the question that the early breakaway will get reeled back in. As we approach the final week of the race, more and more teams get desperate to get that elusive stage win and if they miss out on today's early action, they could choose to start a chase effort. However, it will require some strength to close down the move and only a few teams will be capable of doing this. Almost all of those already have a stage win in their pocket but if the Blanco team misses out, we could see the Dutch outfit start to chase. The team will be eager to see either Steven Kruijswijk, Wilco Kelderman, Juan Manuel Garate or Stef Clement contest the win in Ivrea later today.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Eros Capecchi, Danilo Di Luca, Fabio Duarte
Outsiders: Dario Cataldo, Diego Rosa, Jose Herrada
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