The prestigious sprint in Brescia looms in the horizon but the fast men of the Giro peloton could very well get a dress rehearsal of that big bunch kick in today's stage to Vicenza. However, they will have to turn on the climbing legs and move into survival mode as the tough Crosara climb inside the final 20km of the stage could very well break the dreams of some of the sprint experts and it will certainly not end up as a big bunch kick for the purest sprinters. At the same time, a number of opportunists see the final climb as the perfect launch pad for an attack and hope to spoil the sprinters' party. Starting at 14.15 you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The final week continues with another long stage which could be seen as an incentive for the sprinters to stay in the race before the race has GC written all over the road during the next three days. However, RCS have once again chosen to include a nasty little climb at the end of an otherwise completely flat route and it is highly uncertain how many of the fast men will be able to survive the hill. The first 192,6km are completely flat as the peloton continues to traverse the Po valley in an easterly direction but the category 4 Crosara climb (5,3km, 6,8%, max. 12%) disrupts the sprinters' harmony. The first 4km of the ascent are the toughest with an average gradient of 8,1% while the final part is substantially easier.
The climb is followed by a fast descent of which the last part is rather technical while the final 10km are completely flat. The riders enter Vicenza along a long, straight road but inside the city two nasty corners between the 1000m and 2000m marks make positioning important. The key to a successful sprint will be to enter the final roundabout among the very first riders as only 250m of straight road remain after that one.
The Crosara climb is a really nasty one and the first 4km with an average gradient of more than 8% could easily prove too tough for most of the fast men. On paper many would see this as a perfect stage for a breakaway with many of the sprint teams being somewhat reluctant to chase the whole day only to see their sprinter getting dropped on the climb.
However, a number of factors make it rather certain that the early break will be brought back before the finish line. First and foremost, the battle for the points jersey means that the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team is simply forced to get some more points for Mark Cavendish. His nearest rival, Cadel Evans, will swallow up plenty of points on the three consecutive days in the Dolomites and a stage win on the final day in Brescia will probably not be enough for the Manxman to win the jersey. His chances were further hampered by some unexpected points in yesterday's stage for the 2011 Tour winner who finished 5th on a day that proved much tougher than most had expected. The Belgian team is simply forced to give it a try today, even if Cavendish risks getting dropped on the Crosara climb.
Furthermore, the Omega Pharma-Quick Step team has shown that they are not afraid to work even though the final could very well be too hard for the fastest man on earth. The team took plenty of responsibility in stages 3, 5 and 13 and while it ended up unsuccessful on the first two occasions, Cavendish surprised many by taking a big win in Cherasco on Friday - despite his own reluctance to go for the win. The Manxman would love to finally win the only grand tour points jersey still lacking in his palmares and get a revenge after his narrow 1 point defeat against Rodriguez in last year's race.
Finally, the team has every reason to show great confidence in their sprinters' climbing. While he was clearly not at his best in the early part of the race, he just gets better and better on the ascents. The most obvious example was of course that Cherasco stage but his performance on the tough Andrate climb yesterday was another testament to his current form. Surrounded by a number of teammates he finished a promising 71st despite slowing down after getting dropped, and he was one of the best sprinters just 24 hours ago. There is a good chance that he could survive the climb - or at least get up not too far behind - and so his Omega Pharma-Quick Step team will probably do what they can to bring everything back together.
Furthermore, they will receive plenty of help. Orica-GreenEdge had redcircled this stage for Matt Goss but the Australian abandoned yesterday after suffering from a cold for a number of days. However, the Australian team still desperately needs a stage win and with limited opportunities in the Dolomites, they could very well decide to chase as they did it on the roads to Cherasco despitel Goss' illness. Their man for the sprint will be Brett Lancaster who is climbing surprisingly well these days and who finished 4th and 5th in the two sprint stages in the second week. If the climb is too tough for the Australian, Jens Keukeleire is ready to step into the role as the team's preferred sprinter.
Argos-Shimano and Cannondale have also marked this stage out as one to go for a stage win. Their sprinters Luka Mezgec and Elia Viviani are some of the toughest of the fast men and have a good chance of surviving Crosara. Since both will find it difficult to beat Cavendish in Brescia, today could very well be their final opportunity to take a stage win. Cannondale is still in search of their first win and will do their utmost in today's stage while Argos-Shimano have the comfort of already having their first victory in the pocket earlier in the race. However, the team will play no role on the three stages in the Dolomites and if they want to show themselves once again before the end of the race, today and Sunday are their final opportunities.
The flat start to the stage makes it much easier for Omega Pharma-Quick Step team to control the early going. There is little doubt that we will see a flurry of attacks as this stage is the final stage win possibility for most riders in the peloton but the Belgian team will do their utmost to make sure that the early breakaway is not too bug and that neither Cannondale, Orica-GreenEdge og Argos-Shimano are represented. The Belgian team should be strong enough to do this on the flat roads and if they are successful in the stage's early going, we will probably see everything brought back together before the final climb.
On the ascent, we will see new teams kick into action. In stages 5 and 13 Movistar used their usual strategy of letting some of their many strong climbers set a hard pace with the sole purpose of dropping the fastest sprinters. Francisco Ventoso is probably the best climber among the sprinters and he will relish the opportunity to get to the finish without he faster rivals. Vini Fantini could try the same tactic to prepare the sprint for Oscar Gatto while Androni could set the pace to tire the legs of Fabio Felline's rivals. However, both teams will probably choose to attack on the climb which also contributes to a faster pace on the steep slopes.
If Cavendish survives the climb, it is hard to see anyone beat the Manxman. Depending on the number of remaining sprinters, the final sprint will have a number of different sprinters. Next in line to win the stage are Mezgec and Viviani who will both probably be the fastest if they survive the climb while Cavendish is dropped. If the climb proves to be so tough that even the Slovenian-Italian duo are dropped, the sprint come play into the hands of Sacha Modolo (Bardiani). The Italian is one of the best climbers among the sprinters but was a surprise victim of the climbs in the final part of stage 13. He wrote it down to a bad day and since the he has climbed formidably, only losing 4.01 to Intxausti in yesterday's tough final. He will find it difficult to beat the likes of Cavendish and Viviani but if they are left behind, he could take the win.
Ventoso is of course also a good bet if the peloton is a reduced one but in a larger group the Spaniard always finds it hard to get into a good position for the sprint. Another good candidate in case of a hard stage is Grega Bole is a really good climber and if he has recovered from his efforts yesterday, he could finally land Vacansoleil some success in the Giro.
Other sprinters to mix it up could be the likes of Brett Manuel Belletti, Robert Hunter and Giacomo Nizzolo but if the stage ends up as a really tough one it could play into the hands of fast classics riders like Filippo Pozzato, Marco Marcato, Luca Paolini and Paul Martens.
We will of course see a flurry of attacks on the final climb and it is not unlikely that one of those will be able to go all the way to the line. The sprint teams could have limited resources at the top of the final climb and it will be tough to bring back a strong group on the final flat run-in. However, Cannondale proved they had the numbers in the Cherasco stage and if they save some energy in the early part of the race, they could very well take responsibility for the final chase.
As said, it will be difficult for the early break but it is not completely out of question that the stage ends up as a copy of yesterday's. Some of the GC riders could try their hand on the steepest parts of the climbs to try to once again drop some of their top 10 rivals and this could turn the stage into a GC battle. There will probably be some kind of regrouping on the final, flat run-in to the line but we could see the race's key protagonists battle it out once again just one day prior to the first of three hard days in the Dolomites.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Mark Cavendish, Luka Mezgec, Elia Viviani
Outsiders: Sacha Modolo, Francisco Ventoso, Grega Bole
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