We were denied the opportunity to see the riders battle it out on the Val Martello climb yesterday but despite alterations to today's course we should be in for a spectacular final mountain stage in the Giro d'Italia which hopefully can compensate for that loss. A really tough stage has been modified to now be an easy ride all the way to the bottom of the final climb up the Tre Cime di Lavaredo but the torturous slopes of that ascent will be a fitting end to the mountains in a memorable edition of the Giro d'Italia. Starting at 12.15 you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
What was expected to be a tough end to three extremely hard days in the Dolomites will now be a much more modest affair after snow once again forced the Giro organizers to make drastic alterations to the proposed itinerary. Instead of climbing the Passo Costalunga, the Passo di San Pellegrino and the mighty and feared Passo Giau on the road between Silandro and the final climb of Tre Cime di Lavaredo, the start and finish locations will now be connected by an almost completely flat course. The easy opening part of the stage is almost unchanged - the riders will make a short digression from the original route - and the riders will heads slightly downhill during the first 56,1km until they reach Bolzano. Here the plan was to send them over the three mighty climbs but instead the riders will face almost an almost flat, slightly uphill stretch which leads all the way to Cimbanche after 171,9km of racing. From there the riders will take on a short descent to the famous ski destination Cortina d'Ampezzo from which they will travel along the original route to the top of the Tre Cime di Lavaredo climb.
The first part of the climb is known as the Passo Tre Croci (7,9km, 7,3km, max. 12%) and is a rather regular category 2 ascent. At the top 6,75km of rolling terrain await the riders before they hit the lower slopes of the final Tre Cime di Lavaredo climb (7,1km, 8,6%. max. 18%) (which has been assigned the "Cima Coppi" category as it is now the highest point of the race). Once again the average gradient is somewhat deceptive as it would be much higher had it not been for a small descent along the way. The last 3,78km have an average gradient of no less than 11,3% and this climb is one of the irregular, brutal ones that characterize Italy and which are rarely seen in the Tour de France. The ascent has a long history and was last used in 2007 when a young Riccardo Ricco burst onto the scene with a huge stage victory and it has all the potential to create a major shake-up of the general classification. The riders will not arrive at the bottom with 3 hard climbs and a tough stage 19 in their legs but the stage can still be used to make some huge gains in the general classification and it will be a fitting way to crown the winner of the Giro d'Italia.
The modified course and the cancellation of stage 19 of course changes the script of the stage dramatically. While many of the race's strongest climbers had hoped to use the difficult courses of Friday's and Saturday's stages to go in a long-distance breakaway and try to keep the peloton at bay, it will now be almost impossible to deny the favourites the possibility to battle it out for the stage win on the final climb. The hard start to the originally proposed stages would make it very difficult to control as the strongest riders just below the overall top 10 would simply ride away from their competitors and could very well take a stage win.
The new stage has a much easier start and it will be much easier for the teams to control the size and the composition of the early breakaway. Furthermore, it will be much easier for some of the weaker teams with a strong climb who can finish it off on the final climb, to bring it all back together at the bottom of the final climb. Teams like Ag2r, Lampre and Euskaltel have still not won a stage and have some strong candidates to come out triumphant on the Tre Cime di Lavaredo. They are all likely to spend some energy to chase down the early break. Hence, we will see a much more controlled start to the stage and probably a much smaller break than what would have emerged, had they been able to tackle the original route.
As a consequence, we can expect a non-spectacular start to the stage where a small break will go clear before being steadily reeled in before the hostilities begin. That will all be compensated for by what we will see when the favourites battle it out on the final, extremely steep climb.
Vincenzo Nibali has shown that he is a level above the rest on the climbs. The very steep final 4km are most comparable to the finish on the Jafferau in stage 14 and on that occasion Nibali also emerged as the strongest on the steepest slopes. Only Mauro Santambrogio was able to follow him on that dreaded climb and the Italian has since faded and is unlikely to do the same today.
Nibali finally won his stage on Thursday but the Italian media expects him to cap off a stellar Giro performance by a memorable stage win on one of the Giro's legendary climbs. The Italian has a chance to silence his critics and if he does not experience a bad day, he will probably use the opportunity to just ride away from his rivals on that final steep part. It is hard to see anyone match him in a direct battle and so the Italian emerges as the huge favourite on this stage - also because it will be much easier for his team to control the early going on the climb as he will have more domestique resources towards the end of the stage than he would have had, had the course not been changed.
The most likely to challenge him in a head-to-head battle is Carlos Betancur who was very close to match his speed on the Jafferau but have to let him go inside the final kilometers. The Colombian has been close to the stage victory on a number of occasions and he would love to finally step onto the top step of the podium after 4 top 3 finishes until now. He is more explosive than Nibali and will probably beat him in a sprint but on the 12% slopes inside the final kilometers, explosiveness counts for little as the strongest man will always win.
The way to beat Nibali is probably to anticipate his move and there are a number of in-form riders who could maybe be allowed some leeway. Michele Scarponi (Lampre) has suffered in the cold - and could do that again tomorrow - but in recent days he has finally shown the climbing legs that made Nibali point him out as his most dangerous rival. However, the race leader has been quick to respond to the Lampre leader whenever he has tried a move and he is unlikely to be allowed to move anywhere without Nibali following him closely in his heels.
Samuel Sanchez had a lacklustre opening to his Giro campaign but has once again shown that he just gets better and better as the race goes on. The first sign of life came with his 4th place on the Jafferau and he made a bold move in the headwind on the Galibier. He was a very aggressive presence in the finales of the intermediate stages Tuesday and Wednesday and he capped it all off with his second place in the time trial on Thursday.
The final climb should suit him well but he would have preferred the harder route to make it more of a race of attrition. He is unlikely to match Nibali on the final slopes but his modest overall 10th place means that Nibali will probably not chase him down if he tries his move a little earlier. At the moment he is one of the few who has the strength to finish such a bold attack on in grand style and no one knows how to gauge his effort on a climb like the Euskaltel leader.
A partner in such a move could be Italian champion Franco Pellizotti. No one has tried as many moves in the final parts of the stages as the Androni captain but until now he has been unsuccessful. However, the Italian champion appears to be getting stronger in the third week, and he could join up with Sanchez to form a strong duo on the attack late in the race.
Damiano Caruso and Fabio Duarte have both ridden themselves into some good form towards the end of the Giro and were both strong on the Jafferau, the Galibier and in the mountain time trial. Both are far behind in GC and would have been allowed to go off in an early attack and then they would have been very difficult to catch. The new course now makes such a long-distance move impossible and instead they will have to wait until the final climb. That makes it much harder to bring home the stage win but look out for both riders to try their hand on the climb up the Tre Cime di Lavaredo.
Domenico Pozzovivo disappointed somewhat on the Jafferau which appeared to be tailor-made to his characteristics but the cold conditions could very well have taken the best out of the tiny climber. He crashed on the Galibier and has struggled since but no one should forget that he actually dropped Nibali on the very steep part on the Altopiano del Montasio. He has always found it hard to gauge his effort on the climbs and has often faded towards the end but his modest GC position could allow him some leeway on the climb. The very steep slopes towards the end should suit him and if he joins a move by the likes of Sanchez and Pellizotti, he could come out triumphant.
Scarponi, Rigoberto Uran and Cadel Evans will be locked in a tight battle for the podium spots. While the former will probably also keep an eye on a possible stage win, the other two will focus solely on each other. It would be a good idea for Evans to stay in the wheels of Uran and hope to be able to match his speed as the gap between the two is only 10 seconds. The longer stage should be in Evans' favour but if one keeps Uran's strong performance on the most difficult part of the mountain time trial in mind, he is in a good position to finish on the second step of the podium.
Scarponi is a little further behind and will have to try his hand from a little further out if he is to make it onto the final podium. Expect him to try a move a few kilometres before the finish and it is not unlikely that he has the strength to simply ride away from his podium rivals.
While battles for the pink, blue and red jerseys are almost locked up due to the altered courses (it would require Cavendish to make a disappointing sprint in Brescia to deny him the red points jersey), the battle for the white one is hugely interesting. Only 2 seconds separate Rafal Majka and Betancur and while the latter has appeared to be the strongest on the climbs until now, the Pole beat him narrowly in the mountain time trial. None of the two competitors have faded in the third week and will mark each other extremely closely. However, Majka will probably need to put Betancur in trouble a little earlier as the Colombian has the acceleration to take back the two seconds in a short rush close to the line.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Vincenzo Nibali, Samuel Sanchez, Carlos Betancur
Outsiders: Franco Pellizotti, Domenico Pozzovivo, Damiano Caruso
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