When the sprinters desperately looked for opportunities at the unveiling of this year's Criterium du Dauphiné course, they red-circled today's third stage as one of the few stages that could very well end in a sprint. The most resistant of the fast men got a chance yesterday but today's climbing is much easier and more bunch kick experts should be present in the front group at the end of today's stage in Tarare. The peloton's two fastest men Nacer Bouhanni and yesterday's winner Elia Viviani mark themselves out as the two big favourites but just behind them a few other sprinters aim to mix it up. Starting at 12.45, you can follow the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
The 3rd stage is one of the easiest and takes the riders from Amberieu-en-Bugey to Tarare. The first part is completely flat but the final half contains the two category 3 climbs Col des Echarmeaux (10,6km, 3%) and Col des Sauvages (4,0km, 5,5%). From the top of the last one, only 9,5km of fast descent remain and the stage could be another one for a late attack. However, the final climb is easier than the one in stage 2 and the stage is generally much easier to control and so it will be much easier to bring everything back together than it was yesterday.
The run-in to the finish consists of a long, straight, gradual descent but things get a little tricky inside the final kilometer. To 90 degrees left-hand bends greet the riders in quick succession and the finishing straight is only 350 meters long. Positioning will be key and any rider entering those two bends too far back will have no chance of coming out triumphant.
Opportunities for the sprinters are always few and far between at the Dauphiné and this year is no exception. The first stage was too tough for all but Gianni Meersman who is by no means your usual sprinter. Yesterday was much more of a test for all but Meersman as nobody were really certain that they would be able to survive the final climb. Only two stages have been really red-circled by the sprinters: today's third and Friday's sixth stages.
The eagerness of the sprinters also makes it almost impossible that an early break will make it all the way to the finish. The start of the stage is very easy and the teams of the sprinters will have no problem controlling the makeup and size of the day's early break. After that, the many flat kilometres make it an easy task for the same squads to bring back the escape and they will probably keep the gap under firm control so as to allow themselves to climb the two final ascents at a modest pace. We are certain to see late attacks on the final climb, but as it is an easy one, it will be very difficult to build up a sufficient gap.
Having ruled out any attackers, it is time to look at the sprinters to find the favourites for today and two riders mark themselves out as the riders to fear in a final dash to the line: Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani. The two are by far the fastest in a sprint like today's and it will take a perfect lead-out for the other riders to prevent one of those two from winning today's stage. Each of them has an advantage that could see them come out on top of the other as Viviani is favoured by his strong climbing and Bouhanni by his lead-our support.
Bouhanni is usually a rather strong climber who harbours some long-term ambitions in the Ardennes classics but recently he has been climbing way below his usual standard. He has proved his resistance in the last two editions of the Tour of Oman, last year's Dauphiné and on the Montjuic climb in last year's Vuelta, but in the Giro he struggled unusually on the ascents. That was also the case on Sunday's first stage but yesterday he bounced somewhat back and came tantalizingly close to making it over the final climb with the main bunch. Having almost made it yesterday, today's easier climbs should pose no problem for him. If he is still in contention when they start the descent he will be a formidable challenger.
His main strength is his lead-out riders. Due to the tough course, few teams have brought fast men to the Dauphiné and no sprinter has a dedicated lead-out train. However, Bouhanni's teammates Anthony Geslin, Matthieu Ladagnous, Arthur Vichot and his final lead-out man Geoffrey Soupe all know how to go fast at the end of a stage and should all survive the climbs. If their French champion has survived the climbs and is brought into a good position, we expect FDJ to take control and if they deliver Bouhanni perfectly, he will be almost impossible to beat.
On the other hand, he could very well struggle on the final climb and thus crest the summit near the back of the peloton. He only has 9,5km to recover from his effort and make it back to the front, and that could both mean that he lacks his usual speed or starts the sprint in a bad position.
Yesterday, we already pointed to Viviani as a dangerous outsider, suggesting that he climbed really strongly at the Giro, faded towards the end of the three-week race but could feature in the sprint if he had recovered well. His performance and subsequent stage win proved that that he still has some power left, and he will have no problems surviving today's easier climbing. He should crest the summit of the final climb in much better position than Bouhanni and be more fresh at the finish.
His main disadvantage will be his lack of support riders in a high-speed finish. In the Giro he enjoyed the services of Tiziano Dall'Antonio and Fabio Sabatini who formed one of the race's best lead-out trains but here he is mostly surrounded by strong time triallists who can go hard for a long time but lack the top speed to battle it out with the FDJ riders. They should be able to bring Viviani into a good position prior to the final two bends but it will be difficult for him to start his sprint from a better position than Bouhanni. Hence, it will be up to the Italian to prove that he is faster than his French rival, and we actually doubt that this is the case.
Michael Matthews is here to take that elusive stage win which is the main target of his Orica-GreenEdge team. The Australian squad always turns up at the major mountainous stage races with a focus on stage wins more than the GC and this year they have been remarkably successful. They grabbed a win in the Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico, Volta a Catalunya and Vuelta al Pais Vasco and only the Tour de Romandie and the Giro d'Italia were failures for the Australians. Their most likely stage winner was Simon Gerrans in one of the two first stages but he is apparently suffering from allergies and so they will now turn their attentions to their sprinter: Michael Matthews.
The former Rabobank rider finished in the Bouhanni group yesterday and thus he was very close to making it over the final climb in the main group. He should be able to do that today and so he has a shot at the stage win. The Australian team has plenty of lead-out experience and despite the absence of their best riders for the discipline, Wesley Sulzberger, Simon Clarke, Simon Gerrans and most importantly Mitchell Docker know how to support a sprinter. Matthews' main concern is Docker's crash in yesterday's stage but the team is confident that he has recovered well. The former U23 world champion does not have the speed to beat Viviani and Bouhanni in a head-2-head battle but his team could deliver him in a position that makes him able to come out on top despite the presence of faster finishers.
Gianni Meersman has finished second twice in a row and will certainly mix it up again today. However, the Belgian probably missed his two best opportunities on Sunday and Monday as the final two expected bunch sprints should involve a much wider field of contenders. Meersman is certainly fast but as evidenced by last year's Vuelta, the recent Tour of California and yesterday's stage, he lacks the top speed to battle the real sprinters. Hence, it will be very difficult for Meersman to win today but he is a rather sure top 5 bet.
A host of other fast riders are eager to show off themselves today. Kris Boeckmans (Vacansoleil) will probably find it difficult to survive the final climb but if he is there, he could be one of the fastest. Sky will try their hand with either Edvald Boasson Hagen, Geraint Thomas or Peter Kennaugh, Dennis Vanendert should be there for Lotto, Astana has high hopes for Francesco Gavazzi, Thor Hushovd hopes to finally get over the climbs and show off his speed, David Tanner and Robert Wagner are ready for Blanco, Radioshack has Tony Gallopin, Xavier Floriencio could try himself out for Katusha, Garmin has a fast duo with Michel Kreder and Koldo Fernandez, Lampre has almost brought a sprint team to the mountainous race with Elia Favilii, Massimo Graziato, Maximiliano Richeze and Andrea Palini, Reinhardt Janse Van Rensburg and Nikias Arndt will be the sprinters of Argos-Shimano and an in-form Armindo Fonseca will be the man for Bretagne. Hence, the number of fast guys is pretty high and all hope to take a surprise win ahead of the race's two big star sprinters: Bouhanni and Viviani.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Nacer Bouhanni, Elia Viviani, Michael Matthews
Outsiders: Gianni Meersman, Kris Boeckmans, Edvald Boasson Hagen
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