The sprinters once again take a back seat in the Giro d'Italia's seventh stage which takes the riders over the numerous short, steep ascents that are known from the Tirreno-Adriatico. Bradley Wiggins has every reason to fear this stage a winding route with its many climbs and technical descents is not at all suited to his steady, regular rhythm. Expect to see Ryder Hesjedal and Vincenzo Nibali put the big favourite under pressure while a number of opportunists have marked this one out as a great chance to take home a win on the biggest scene. Starting at 14.15 you can follow all the action on CyclingQuotes.com/live.
Hopefully, the sprinters enjoyed their day in the spotlight as the seventh day of racing offers a stage in the Abruzzo region with one of the saw tooth profiles that have so often decided the Tirreno-Adriatico. From the start in the coastal city of San Salvo the riders immediately head into the Apennines and from then on it goes up and down most of the day. While the climbs in the first part of the stage are longer, more gradual ascents, the seconds half is littered with many of those short, steep climbs that characterize the region.
In a fitting tribute to one of the landmark stages of the recent editions of the Tirreno-Adriatico the race will even pass through the city of Chieti in which Joaquin Rodriguez, Peter Sagan and Michele Scarponi (twice) have won stages on the steep slopes in the recent editions of the Italian stage race. The passage comes after 138,8km and the climb up to the city is a category 3 ascent (2,7km, 7,8%, max. 16%). It is followed by a short descent and then a 1,1km hill with an average gradient of 11,5% and a maximum of 19% which leads to the location of an intermediate sprint at the top.
In addition to the climb in Chieti the organizers have decided to categorize a further three climbs, the category 4 Villamagna (2,7km, 5,6%, max. 11%) after 124,6km, the category 3 Santa Maria De Criptis (3,9km, 5,9%, max. 18%) with 19,7km to go and the day's final hill, the category 4 San Silvestro (2,2km, 4,5%, max 14%) with 7,4km remaining. From then on only a short descent and a completely flat stretch to the coastal city of Pescara remain at the end of a very hard day.
With its hilly profile the stage invites opportunists to attack as the difficult nature makes it almost impossible to control and the many classics specialists who are here with the sole objective of taking a stage win have all marked this one out as one of the best chances. Luca Paolini said yesterday that he hopes to keep the jersey but his Katusha team faces a very tough opening part of the race as they try to make sure that no dangerous riders slip up the road. Almost all teams want to be represented in today's break so expect a very fast start to the stage with plenty of promising moves unable to survive due to one or more teams missing out. The day's early break will probably only get clear quite far into the stage.
The first part of the stage is not very difficult and this makes it much more of a lottery to get into the right breakaway. However, it is easy to point out some riders who have without any doubt marked this stage out. One very likely candidate is Miguel Angel Rubiano who won stage 6 last year and is great in this terrain and very fast on the line. Yesterday he chose deliberately to lose more than 6 minutes to Paolini and there is little doubt that this only serves the purpose of getting more freedom today. Stefano Pirazzi will surely try to pick up more points for the mountains classification but as he is only 3.06 behind Paolini it may be hard for him to get away.
Giovanni Visconti is another likely candidate in a stage but the Movistar rider crashed hard yesterday and was taken to hospital after the stage. Even though nothing is broken it is doubtful whether he will be able to fully show off his incredible form just one day after his accident. Other likely attackers are Hubert Dupont, Sylvain Georges, Ben Gastauer, Fabio Felline, Jackson Rodriguez, Emanuele Sella, Stefano Locatelli, Edoardo Zardini, Cristiano Salerno, Robinson Chalapud, Jarlinson Pantano, Gorka Verdugo, Ricardo Mestre, Mattia Cattaneo, Kristijan Durasek, Pablo Lastras, Jose Herrada, Karsten Kroon, Marco Marcato, Oscar Gatto, Matteo Rabottini and Fabio Taborre.
If the break does not contain any riders really dangerous for Paolini's lead, it is very likely to succeed but it could also easily come all back together in the final part of the stage. Enrico Battaglin got his big breakthrough win on Tuesday and this stage is another one perfectly suited to his characteristics. He is very likely to survive the final climbs and there is little doubt that he will be the fastest on the line if a select group arrives at the finish. In a sprint he could be challenged by Felline, Ventoso, Visconti, Uran and even Paolini himself and if one of the teams with a fast finisher is not represented in the break they could attempt to set up some kind of sprint finish.
However, we can also expect to see the favourites attack each other. Ryder Hesjedal and Vinceno Nibali both proved in stage 3 that they want to put Bradley Wiggins under pressure in the kind of terrain that is not suited to the Brit and the steep climbs and technical descents in the Abruzzo region could are certainly not to the Sky leader's liking. Even though the crucial time trial awaits on Saturday, expect to see the duo on the attack - Hesjedal has even claimed that the best way to stay safe in a stage like this is by going off the front. They need to use every opportunity to take time out of Wiggins and this is certainly one of those. Furthermore, the stage is very similar to the stage in Tirreno-Adriatico in which Nibali cracked the Sky team and took the leader's jersey away from Chris Froome and so he is probably very motivated to try to repeat that performance.
If the stage ends up as a very hard one and a select group of overall favourites has to battle it out in a sprint on the flat roads in Pescara the favourites will be Mauro Santambrogio, Cadel Evans, Hesjedal, Samuel Sanchez and Rigoberto Uran who are all very fast on the line.
CyclingQuotes' stage winner picks: Enrico Battaglin, Miguel Angel Rubiano, Mauro Santambrogio
Outsiders: Luca Paolini, Samuel Sanchez, Rigoberto Uran
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